Core Viewpoint - The first week of December exhibited a dip-buying seasonal pattern with major indices rising, while significant price movements occurred in the forex market due to changing central bank expectations and improved global risk sentiment [1] Forex Market Analysis - The U.S. Dollar underperformed against G10 currencies, influenced by softer private employment data, mixed labor indicators, and a decrease in the Fed's preferred inflation gauge to its lowest year-on-year level since May, reinforcing expectations for a rate cut [2] - Despite a rebound in longer-dated Treasury yields, this did not significantly boost the Dollar as investors shifted towards higher-beta currencies amid improved risk sentiment [3] Currency Performance - The Swiss Franc lagged as defensive positioning faded, with rising yields outside Switzerland and stable equity markets [4] - The Euro struggled to gain traction despite the Dollar's weakness, hindered by concerns over the euro area's growth and yield advantages [4] - The Australian Dollar rose sharply, driven by market speculation that the RBA may need to resume tightening in 2026, supported by comments from Governor Michele Bullock regarding inflation risks [4][5] - The Canadian Dollar also strengthened due to robust labor market data, leading to expectations that the Bank of Canada will maintain rates into 2026, while Sterling benefited from positive sentiment following the Autumn Budget [5] Market Focus and Expectations - The upcoming week is centered on the Fed's December decision, with the CME FedWatch tool indicating a nearly 90% probability of a rate cut [10] - With the rate cut already priced in, the focus will shift to how the Fed communicates its easing trajectory into 2026 and whether upcoming market data supports a more aggressive rate-cut profile [11]

We'll see volatile weeks ahead, as there are many macroeconomic events.These will be decisive in the upcoming months and, probably, the direction of all assets, which is why we'll remain fully liquid & trade volatility at @MNFund_.Our performance in the first 5 months: +0.29% vs. $BTC -14.29%.MN Fund (@MNFund_):The final month of the year is centered on these two weeks in December.This week, it's all about the FOMC meeting on Wednesday.Will the FOMC provide a rate cut? More importantly, will there be a dovi ...

Market Overview - US stock futures showed positive movement with S&P 500 futures up 0.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.3%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slightly above flatline, indicating cautious optimism ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting [1][19] - Major US benchmarks experienced consecutive weekly gains, with S&P 500 gaining 0.3%, Dow rising 0.5%, and Nasdaq climbing 0.9%, supported by a softer September PCE inflation reading [2] Federal Reserve Expectations - The Federal Reserve is set to begin its final FOMC meeting of the year, with expectations growing for a rate cut for the first time since the inflation cycle began [3][4] - According to CME FedWatch, there is now an 88% probability of a rate cut, a significant increase from 67% a month ago, reflecting cooling inflation data and concerns over labor market resilience [6][7] Economic Indicators - A busy economic calendar includes the delayed October JOLTS report, which will provide insights into US hiring activity, layoffs, and quits, with investors looking for signs of weakening demand that could justify policy easing [8] - Additional inflation indicators and claims data later in the week will offer further context on economic cooling, consumer resilience, and wage pressures [9] Earnings Season - Earnings season is in focus with major companies like Oracle, Adobe, Broadcom, and Costco set to report, which will provide insights into cloud demand, AI investment, enterprise spending, and US consumer strength [14][17][15] Commodity Market - Silver prices are hovering near historic highs, trading at $58.855, driven by ETF inflows and shifting rate expectations, with total holdings of silver-backed ETFs increasing by 590 tons last week, the strongest inflow since July [16][18] - Gold prices also edged higher, benefiting from expectations that lower US interest rates will boost demand for non-yielding stores of value [19]

Monetary Policy Outlook - The recent 25 basis points rate cut is likely the end of the current monetary policy cycle, with the central bank focusing on easing financial conditions through liquidity measures [1] - The central bank's open market operations (OMO) include a purchase of 1 trillion INR and a $5 billion FX swap, indicating a potential for more dovish stances if growth underperforms in the upcoming year [2] - Inflation is expected to rise towards 3% in the next quarter and 4% in the following quarter, limiting the room for further easing due to inflation concerns [2] Central Bank Communication - During a press conference, the central bank indicated that due to benign inflation, policy rates are expected to remain low for the foreseeable future [3] - The interpretation of the central bank's statements suggests a likelihood of maintaining lower rates for an extended period rather than anticipating rate hikes soon [4] Economic Growth Considerations - The central bank's stance on potential further rate cuts is conditional on lower growth surprises, particularly with upcoming GDP base recalculations expected to show lower growth [5] - Current account deficits are widening due to decreased exports to the US and high gold imports, which may hinder growth in the near term [6] Inflation and Easing Conditions - The central bank may be willing to ease further if inflation forecasts decline, influenced by factors such as lower commodity prices or deflationary pressures from overcapacity in China [7] - However, easing based solely on inflation may take longer, as the central bank relies on a 12-month forward inflation forecast to guide its decisions [7]

Core Insights - The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is a key inflation measure closely monitored by financial markets, reflecting changes in the cost of living and consumer behavior [1] - Analysts have varying predictions for the PCE, with expectations of a bullish market reaction if inflation cools below 2.9% [2] - Citi and Goldman Sachs project the headline PCE to rise by 0.29% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, indicating steady inflation [3][4] Inflation Data Release - The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released the September PCE inflation data on December 5, showing a headline PCE of 2.8%, aligning with expectations, while core PCE fell to 2.8%, below the anticipated 2.9% [5] - The release was delayed due to a government shutdown, highlighting the impact of external factors on economic data dissemination [5] Market Implications - The current PCE data suggests a cooling inflation trend, which may influence Federal Reserve policy, with an 87.2% chance of a rate cut in the upcoming December FOMC meeting [5]

In a decisive move, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously cut the key repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.25% today. The announcement triggered an immediate rally in India’s equity markets, with the Sensex gaining around 300 points and the Nifty rising 100 points in the early hours of trading (as reported by CNBC TV 18). This marks the fourth rate cut in 2025, bringing the cumulative reduction for the year to 125 basis points.The most pronounced gains were observed in r ...

Core Insights - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%, marking the first rate cut in six months, which positively impacted the stock market [1][2][5] - The RBI revised its GDP growth forecast for FY26 to 7.3% from 6.8% and lowered its inflation forecast to 2% from 2.6%, indicating a more optimistic economic outlook [3][5][7] Stock Market Performance - The BSE Sensex rose by 447.05 points (0.52%) to close at 85,712.37, while the NSE Nifty increased by 152.70 points (0.59%) to 26,186.45 [1][2] - The BSE midcap index increased by 0.21%, while the smallcap index decreased by 0.67% [5] Sector Performance - Rate-sensitive sectors such as banking, auto, and real estate saw significant gains due to the rate cut, with major winners including State Bank of India, Bajaj Finserv, and Infosys [3][4][7] - Conversely, sectors like services, capital goods, industrials, and FMCG lagged behind [6] Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment improved significantly following the RBI's unexpected rate cut, leading to a risk-on attitude in the equity markets [5][7] - Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold equities worth ₹1,944.19 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) purchased stocks worth ₹3,661.05 crore [8]

Prices climbed to a fresh record as traders in the U.S. stockpile the metal on supply fears and optimism around a possible rate cut next week. ...

Market Overview - The trading day ended with mixed results on Wall Street, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average finishing in the red, down approximately 30 points, while the S&P 500 rose by 7 points, or 0.1% [7] - The Nasdaq increased by 0.2%, and the Russell 2000, which nearly reached a record high, rose by about 19 points, or 0.8% [8] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to be a significant market catalyst, with expectations of a near certainty for a 25 basis point rate cut next week [21] - Speculation surrounds the future leadership of the Federal Reserve, with Kevin Hassett being reported as a leading contender for the Fed chair position [5][6] Earnings Reports - Dollar General's stock rose by 14% after raising its full-year outlook, indicating that value-focused retailers are attracting consumers seeking deals [13][14] - Nova was the top gainer in the S&P 500, up about 4.5%, following a repeat wind turbine order from Green Vault in Romania, with the stock up 93% year-to-date [15] - Intel's stock fell over 7% despite being up 100% year-to-date, as the company decided to keep its networking division in-house, reversing previous plans to spin it off [16][17] - Wynn Resorts' stock dropped more than 4% due to concerns about potential weakness in the U.S. market, as indicated by Marriott's warnings [18] - Kroger cut its sales guidance, citing increased competition and a shift back to paper coupons [19] Retail Sector Performance - Ulta's stock rose about 4.3% in aftermarket trading after reporting a significant increase in fiscal year comp sales and net sales guidance [26][28] - Stitch Fix reported a slight revenue beat and expects to turn a profit in the upcoming quarter, indicating consumer willingness to spend despite economic uncertainties [30][31]

Market Overview - US stocks closed mixed with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping almost 0.1%, the S&P 500 rising 0.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite edging up 0.2% as traders anticipated a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [1] Federal Reserve Expectations - Wall Street is increasingly convinced that the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy at its upcoming meeting, with an 89% probability of a rate cut priced in by traders following a weaker-than-expected ADP private employment report [3] - Speculation surrounds Kevin Hassett potentially replacing Jerome Powell as Fed chair, which could lead to a more dovish stance at the Fed, although market skepticism remains regarding Hassett's appointment [4] Labor Market Insights - Jobless claims unexpectedly fell to a three-year low, indicating some strength in the labor market, while November saw the highest corporate layoffs in three years [5] Company Performance - Meta's shares rose over 3% as CEO Mark Zuckerberg plans significant cuts to the metaverse unit, while Nvidia's stock gained over 2% [2] - Salesforce shares surged after the company raised its outlook, exceeding analyst expectations, whereas Snowflake's stock fell due to revenue guidance that did not meet expectations [6]