🚨 98% probability of another 25 bps rate cut at Wednesday's FOMC meeting https://t.co/P9cPGoamVU ...

Market Overview - Markets experienced a rise due to softer-than-expected inflation figures, with September inflation increasing by 3% year-over-year and core inflation easing to 3.0%, leading to expectations of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][2] - Major indexes reached new all-time highs, supported by strong earnings from the auto sector [1] Bullish Stocks - Beyond Meat Inc. (NASDAQ:BYND) saw a stock surge of over 24% after a debt swap that eliminated approximately 97% of old notes, significantly reducing near-term bankruptcy risk, although existing shareholders faced heavy dilution as bondholders now own about 81% of the company [3] - Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC) reported Q3 earnings that exceeded estimates with $13.65 billion in revenue and $0.23 adjusted EPS, driven by increased demand for compute due to AI advancements [4] - Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) shares rose after Anthropic announced plans to expand its use of Google Cloud technologies, securing access to over 1 million TPU chips and more than 1 GW of capacity, reinforcing Alphabet's leadership in AI and cloud [5] Bearish Stocks - Newmont Corp. (NYSE:NEM) reported Q3 revenue of $5.52 billion and $1.71 EPS, but faced a 4% decline in production to 1.42 million ounces and a decrease in gold grades, leading to a stock slip despite strong cash flow due to future headwind concerns [6] - AST SpaceMobile Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTS) shares fell after announcing a $500 million convertible note offering, raising concerns about dilution and financing risks among investors [7] Industry Trends - The Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (NASDAQ:PBW) has increased by 44% year-to-date, outperforming both the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NYSE:SMH) and NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA), despite challenges from the Trump administration's efforts to roll back clean-energy tax credits [8]

Market Overview - The market is heavily focused on individual company earnings due to the government shutdown limiting macro data [1] - Averages rose due to strong company numbers and a mild CPI report, with the Dow closing above 47,000 for the first time [2] - The S&P 500 had its 34th record close [2] - The NASDAQ increased by 1.15% [2] Economic Outlook - The market anticipates a 0.25% (quarter point) rate cut by the Fed, potentially driven by a stalling economy [2] - Larger layoffs are emerging, exemplified by announcements from Target and Applied Materials [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was tame enough to potentially justify a rate cut [3] Earnings Season Focus - The upcoming week is crucial due to the peak of earnings season, considered more important than usual [1]

Group 1 - The upcoming earnings season is crucial, especially given the lack of macro data due to the government shutdown, which has shifted focus to individual companies [1] - Companies are reporting strong earnings, contributing to significant market gains, with the Dow rising 473 points and closing above 47,000 for the first time, while the S&P increased by 79 points and the NASDAQ rose by 1.15% [2] - There are indications of larger layoffs in companies like Target and Applied Materials, which may impact market sentiment [3] Group 2 - The next week will feature a significant earnings report alongside a Federal Reserve meeting, with expectations of a quarter-point rate cut due to signs of economic stalling [2]

“For a Fed focused on prudent ‘risk management,’ that should translate into another rate cut next week, and likely more to follow,” she said.The CPI report confirms what we’ve seen overall from private data during the government shutdown — little indication that inflation is surging or that the labor market is falling off a cliff, according to Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.“The Fed has been clear that they are more focused on the softening labor data and will continue to defend their ful ...

Market Overview & CPI Analysis - CPI 数据中关税的影响并不明显，整体同比 CPI 仍高于 3% 的目标值[1][2] - 市场普遍预计美联储将在 10 月降息，12 月可能再次降息[3] - 普遍认为市场情绪仍然积极，科技和创新领域仍是投资重点[5] Sector Focus & AI Impact - 策略上，通过银行、保险和公用事业等周期性行业来对冲科技投资，以受益于预期中的宽松政策[6] - AI 的生产力、效率和收入增长预计将在企业采用率达到 50% 以上时才会显现，目前采用率约为 5% 到 10%[6] - 盈利方面，目前非科技行业的盈利表现更为积极，需考虑科技基础设施支出的影响[8] Private Credit & Risk Assessment - 目前看到的私募信贷问题更多与欺诈有关，而非经济状况[9][11] - 预计某些领域的部分信贷会出现违约，但不太可能像金融危机那样大规模蔓延[11] - 经济前景仍然乐观，预计软着陆，加上货币政策宽松，违约风险预计不会大规模扩散[14]

a TGIF from Yao Finance's New York City headquarter studios. I'm Yao Finance executive editor Brian Sazy. You're watching Grayscale Investments ringing the open bell.The New York Stock Exchange AXG getting trading underway over at the NASDAQ. Now, a busy week for corporate earnings ends with, you guessed it, friends, more corporate earnings. Ford cutting its outlook due to a supplier fire.But I found this interesting from the earnings call last night. Company lowered its expected tariff costs this year by $ ...

a TGIF from Yao Finance's New York City headquarter studios. I'm Yao Finance executive editor Brian Sazy. You're watching Grayscale Investments ringing the open bell.The New York Stock Exchange AXG getting trading underway over at the NASDAQ. Now, a busy week for corporate earnings ends with, you guessed it, friends, more corporate earnings. Ford cutting its outlook due to a supplier fire.But I found this interesting from the earnings call last night. Company lowered its expected tariff costs this year by $ ...

Pre-market futures are flattish at this hour, but with a downward bias. The Dow is coming off a record closing high Tuesday, and Q3 earnings reports released yesterday afternoon did not quite have the positive sheen we’ve seen elsewhere this far into earnings season. The Dow is currently down -9 points, the S&P 500 is +3, the Nasdaq -38 and the small-cap Russell 2000 is -9 points at this hour.Fed Governor Michael Barr will make a couple of appearances later today — one week ahead of the next monetary policy ...

Market Outlook - The market is currently experiencing increased volatility, but there is a long-term view that conditions will remain favorable for a while [2][3] - The economy has been in a rolling recession for the past two to three years, but is now transitioning into a rolling recovery [2][4] Economic Cycles - The recession ended with significant layoffs, and the stock market has adjusted accordingly, indicating a new economic cycle [3][4] - Earnings revisions have surged, suggesting the beginning of a new economic cycle [4] Inflation and Interest Rates - The current economic environment is characterized by inflation, which differs from previous low-inflation periods [5][20] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates more significantly, potentially by over 150 basis points, contingent on weaker labor data [12][11] Investment Strategy - A barbell investment strategy is favored, with a focus on both cyclical sectors like technology, financials, and industrials, as well as defensive sectors such as healthcare [7][8] - There is an expectation for a market expansion as the recovery progresses, similar to trends observed in 2021 [7] Short-term Risks - Potential short-term corrections may arise due to U.S.-China trade tensions and funding market stress, but these are not expected to derail the overall recovery outlook [14][16] - A 10% correction could occur, but it would not revert the market to previous lows [15] Earnings Growth - Inflation is not inherently negative for stocks, as it can drive earnings growth, although it poses challenges for consumers [20][21] - The outlook for next year's earnings is positive, with expectations for a capital expenditure boom [22]