Macro Environment Outlook - The overall fiscal effort has been advanced this year, with expectations for continued positive fiscal policies in the second half, potentially leading to an increase in overall debt growth driven by government department debt growth [1] - The expansion of welfare-oriented fiscal policies and rising inflation may boost nominal GDP growth [1] - Monetary policy is expected to have room for rate cuts in the context of stabilizing growth and exchange rate constraints, with a continued trend of asymmetric rate cuts on both asset and liability sides [1] - The annual social financing growth rate is projected to be around 8.5%, with a peak expected by the end of the third quarter [1] Industry Core Indicators Outlook - The long-term growth center of social financing is strongly correlated with banks' internal capital accumulation ability, and the "volume compensates for price" strategy is unlikely to reverse the downward trend in net interest income [2] - To further reduce deposit costs, improvements in the industry competition landscape or significant reductions in market interest rates are necessary [2] - Loan pricing is closely related to asset liquidity, with current social financing growth significantly exceeding nominal growth, indicating that loan rates are expected to continue declining, although the pace may slow due to various constraints [2] - The overall credit environment remains loose, with expected stability in non-performing loan generation in the second half of the year [2] Asset Liquidity and Allocation Outlook - The turning point of cross-border liquidity will determine the directional shift of domestic asset liquidity, with expectations for accelerated repatriation of funds due to the relatively high returns of RMB assets after considering exchange rate fluctuations [3] - The return rate of risk assets is currently high compared to the 1.6% risk-free rate, indicating a gradual shift of funds towards risk assets such as credit bonds and stocks [3] Industry Prosperity Outlook - Asset-liability pressure is expected to gradually ease in the third and fourth quarters, with year-on-year growth rates for interest-earning assets projected at 7.86% and 7.80% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4] - The narrowing of interest margins is expected to slow down, with overall growth in non-interest income anticipated to turn positive [4] - The bond market is expected to maintain a narrow fluctuation pattern in the third quarter, with potential upward adjustments in bond market interest rates in the fourth quarter due to high base effects [4] - Overall asset quality is expected to remain stable, with a projected decline in provisioning contributions [4] - For 2025, the combined revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed banks are expected to change by -1.67% and -0.29% year-on-year, respectively, with state-owned banks performing better than other sectors [4]

Fiscal & Monetary Policy Analysis - 2020-2021: Easy fiscal policy combined with easy monetary policy created a "perfect storm" [1] - 2022-2024: Easy fiscal policy paired with tight monetary policy (Federal Reserve rate hikes) created unfavorable conditions [1] - Early 2025: Tight fiscal policy combined with tight monetary policy was very detrimental to risk assets [1] - Post April 2025: Fiscal printing continues, and easy monetary policy devalues the denominator, favoring long risk positions [1] Government & Trade Dynamics - There was a belief that the government would balance the budget with tighter fiscal policy [2] - High tariffs tightened global supply chains and reduced growth [2] - Trump pushed for monetary policy cuts [2] - Tariff de-escalation is occurring with a focus on deals [2] Investment Strategy - Avoid overtrading or getting liquidated on leverage [1] - Fiscal printing and easy monetary policy favor long risk positions [1]

Market Sentiment - Risk assets experienced significant declines due to bearish sentiment driven by escalating trade tensions, disappointing earnings, and signs of economic fragility [1] - The sweeping trade measures, including a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, and additional tariffs on European and Chinese goods, rattled markets and triggered broad-based sell-offs [1][2] Cryptocurrency Market - Cryptocurrencies faced severe risk aversion, with Bitcoin entering a bear market after dropping over 20% from its peak, despite a slight uptick after falling below $80,000 [2] - A massive security breach at Bybit resulted in the theft of $1.5 billion worth of Ethereum, further worsening sentiment in the digital asset space [2] Artificial Intelligence Sector - The artificial intelligence sector saw a decline as investors reassessed high valuations, with NVIDIA Corp. experiencing steep losses despite stronger-than-expected earnings [3] - The downturn in NVIDIA's stock negatively impacted peers such as Advanced Micro Devices Inc., Broadcom Inc., Qualcomm Inc., and Intel Corp., all of which reported declines [3] Economic Data - Economic data showed fresh cracks, with the fourth-quarter GDP remaining unchanged at an annualized growth rate of 2.3%, while inflation metrics were revised higher [4] - Personal spending contracted by 0.2% in January, marking the first negative reading since March 2023, and the Personal Consumption Expenditure price index remained above the Fed's 2% target at 2.5% [4] Housing Market - Housing data was disappointing, with pending home sales plunging 4.6% in January to the lowest level on record, attributed to elevated mortgage rates straining affordability [5] - The labor market showed signs of softening, as weekly jobless claims increased by 22,000 to 242,000, the highest level in over two months [5] General Motors - General Motors Co. announced a dividend hike, raising its quarterly dividend by three cents to 15 cents per share, effective in April [6] - The company also authorized a new $6 billion share repurchase program, which includes a $2 billion accelerated buyback initiative [6]