Core Insights - Short-dated U.S. Treasury yields are expected to decline due to anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, while long-term yields remain resistant due to persistent inflation and fiscal concerns [1][4] - Analysts predict that the ongoing government shutdown complicates the Federal Reserve's ability to make informed policy decisions, increasing the risk of missteps [4] Interest Rate Outlook - The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is forecasted to trade around 4.10% in three to six months and rise to 4.17% in one year, with current levels around 4.0% [4] - Many analysts believe that long-term yields will not decrease significantly, with expectations that 10-year Treasuries will remain above 4% even if the Fed cuts rates [5][6] Yield Curve Dynamics - The 2-year Treasury yield is expected to hold at approximately 3.47% by year-end, with projections of 3.40% in six months and 3.35% in one year, indicating a gradual steepening of the yield curve [7] - The spread between 10- and 2-year yields is anticipated to increase from around 50 basis points to 60 basis points by the end of 2025 and 82 basis points in one year, marking the highest level since January 2022 [7]

Core Viewpoint - Amundi's 2025 global investment outlook indicates a strong performance in the US stock market, while European markets are stabilizing, influenced by AI capital expenditure expectations and a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The US stock market reached new highs in August, while European markets approached March levels, with corporate credit spreads narrowing during the summer [1] - Market sentiment is buoyed by strong earnings in the US and a relatively mild position from the Federal Reserve during the Jackson Hole meeting, despite underlying economic risks [1] Group 2: Interest Rates and Fiscal Policies - Key themes for the medium term include rising US inflation expectations, increased fiscal spending plans in the US and EU, and ongoing accommodative monetary policies, leading to rising yields across major economies [2] - The yield curve is steepening due to concerns over fiscal deficits, particularly in the US and Europe, with long-term yields expected to rise further due to pension reforms in some European countries [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Amid rising geopolitical risks, Amundi suggests diversifying investments away from the US market towards Europe and Japan, as Europe is better positioned to mitigate tariff-related shocks through fiscal and monetary policies [3] - The company emphasizes the importance of maintaining a focus on financially sound companies and special risks, while also capitalizing on opportunities arising from weak stock prices [3] Group 4: Emerging Markets - Emerging markets are showing signs of recovery, with improvements in economic conditions in countries like China and India, while Brazil and Indonesia's political situations are back in focus [4] - Internal tax reforms in countries like India are expected to boost domestic consumption, which is a key growth driver, and the overall positive outlook for emerging markets is supported by a dovish Federal Reserve [4] Group 5: Risk Assets and Economic Outlook - Despite a lack of extreme macroeconomic data in the US and Europe, Amundi maintains a cautious outlook on US economic growth due to deteriorating labor market conditions and potential consumption suppression from tariffs [5] - The company is slightly optimistic about risk assets, including emerging markets, and suggests allocating to gold and stock hedging tools to enhance protection against geopolitical risks and fiscal deterioration [5]

Core Insights - Deposit account rates are declining, but competitive returns on certificates of deposit (CDs) can still be locked in, with the best CDs offering rates above 4% [1] Group 1: Current CD Rates - The best short-term CDs (six to 12 months) currently offer rates around 4% to 4.5% APY, with the highest rate at 4.25% APY for an 8-month CD from LendingClub as of October 14, 2025 [2] - CD rates today are significantly higher than traditional savings accounts, indicating a favorable environment for investors seeking fixed returns [2] Group 2: Historical Context - CD rates were relatively high in the early 2000s but began to decline due to economic slowdowns and Federal Reserve rate cuts, with average one-year CDs at around 1% APY by 2009 [3] - The trend of falling CD rates continued into the 2010s, with average rates for 6-month CDs dropping to about 0.1% APY by 2013 [4] - A slight recovery in CD rates occurred between 2015 and 2018 as the Fed gradually increased rates, but the COVID-19 pandemic led to emergency rate cuts, causing new record lows [5] Group 3: Recent Developments - Following the pandemic, inflation prompted the Fed to hike rates 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023, resulting in higher APYs on savings products, including CDs [6] - As of September 2024, the Fed began cutting the federal funds rate, leading to a decrease in CD rates from their peak, although they remain high by historical standards [7] Group 4: Understanding CD Rates - Traditionally, longer-term CDs offered higher interest rates, but the current highest average CD rate is for a 12-month term, indicating a flattening or inversion of the yield curve [8] - Factors to consider when choosing a CD include goals for locking away funds, type of financial institution, account terms, and the impact of inflation on returns [9]

Market Focus & Investment Opportunities - Investors are highly interested in banks with strong investment banking and trading operations due to anticipated strong performance in Q3, driven by robust capital markets [2] - Consumer credit trends, particularly within banks holding large credit card portfolios like Wells Fargo, will be a key area of investor focus [3] - M&A activity is expected to increase in 2025-2026, with the Fifth Third's acquisition of CoAmerica for $11 billion potentially marking the start of a consolidation trend [7] Bank Valuations & Rerating Potential - Banks, on average, are still valued slightly below the cyclical highs of January 2018, with some like JP Morgan at very high valuations [6] - A full credit cycle needs to be observed to determine if banks deserve a permanent rerating, as credit performance is crucial to bank profitability and is tested during economic downturns [5] - Regional banks could outperform money center banks in 2026 if the economy grows at 15%-2%, the Fed cuts rates by another 50 basis points, and the yield curve steepens [11][12] Regional Banks & Net Interest Income - Net interest income, a strength of regional banks, is expected to grow faster than anticipated under a scenario of healthy economic growth, Fed rate cuts, and a steeper yield curve [11] - Loan growth, fueled by a resilient economy and increased capital expenditures financed by commercial loans, could further boost the performance of regional banks [12] M&A Considerations - Fifth Third's acquisition of CoAmerica was unique because it was not dilutive to tangible book value per share, a key focus for Fifth Third's CEO [8] - Expect more deals over the next 12-24 months [8]

Market Momentum & Diversification - The market's gains are showing signs of slowing down, similar to a ball reaching its peak [1] - Unexpected news could trigger a pullback, but the overall trend is not expected to end [2] - Diversification strategies include reducing overweight positions in communication services and exploring AI plays through data centers [3][4] - Utilities and industrials are alternative sectors that may have room for further valuation increases [4] Interest Rates & Financials - Short-term interest rates are expected to fall, with potentially two more Fed rate cuts this year and two more next year [5] - A steepening yield curve, with short-end rates falling and long-end rates steady or rising, benefits banks by lowering deposit costs while loan revenues remain stable [6] - Financials are favored as a sector that can benefit from this trend [6] Domestic Focus & Fixed Income - A domestic focus is preferred due to better fundamentals in the US, including improving growth and falling interest rates [7][8] - The US market has kept pace with international markets since a low point, and strains are observed overseas, particularly in France and the UK due to debt issues [7][8][9] - A bullet strategy in fixed income is recommended, focusing on intermediate-range maturities (3-7 years) to mitigate duration risk [11] - Investment-grade corporates, treasuries, and munis (essential service and general obligation) are preferred within fixed income [11]

Core Insights - Deposit account rates are declining, but competitive returns on certificates of deposit (CDs) can still be locked in, with the best CDs offering rates above 4% [1] Group 1: Current CD Rates - The best short-term CDs (six to 12 months) currently offer rates around 4% to 4.5% APY, with the highest rate at 4.4% APY for an 8-month CD from LendingClub as of October 7, 2025 [2] - CD rates are significantly higher than traditional savings accounts, indicating a favorable environment for investors seeking fixed returns [2] Group 2: Historical Context - CD rates were relatively high in the early 2000s but began to decline due to economic slowdowns and Federal Reserve rate cuts, with average one-year CDs at around 1% APY by 2009 [3] - The trend of falling CD rates continued into the 2010s, with average rates for 6-month CDs dropping to about 0.1% APY by 2013 [4] - A slight recovery in CD rates occurred between 2015 and 2018 as the Fed gradually increased rates, but the COVID-19 pandemic led to emergency rate cuts, causing new record lows [5] Group 3: Recent Developments - Following the pandemic, inflation prompted the Fed to hike rates 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023, resulting in higher APYs on savings products, including CDs [6] - As of September 2024, the Fed began cutting the federal funds rate, leading to a decrease in CD rates from their peak, although they remain high by historical standards [7] Group 4: Understanding CD Rates - Traditionally, longer-term CDs offered higher interest rates, but the current highest average CD rate is for a 12-month term, indicating a flattening or inversion of the yield curve [8] - Factors to consider when choosing a CD include goals for locking away funds, type of financial institution, account terms, and the impact of inflation on returns [9]

Core Insights - Deposit account rates are declining, but competitive returns on certificates of deposit (CDs) can still be locked in, with the best CDs offering rates above 4% [1] CD Rates Overview - Current best short-term CDs (6 to 12 months) offer rates around 4% to 4.5% APY, with the highest rate at 4.45% APY for an 8-month CD from LendingClub as of October 1, 2025 [2] - Historical context shows that CD rates were higher in the early 2000s but fell significantly after the 2008 financial crisis, with one-year CDs averaging around 1% APY by 2009 [2] - The trend of falling CD rates continued into the 2010s, with average rates for 6-month CDs dropping to about 0.1% APY by 2013 [3] Economic Impact on CD Rates - The Federal Reserve's policies, particularly the decision to keep benchmark interest rates near zero, contributed to low CD rates during the Great Recession [3] - A slight improvement in CD rates occurred between 2015 and 2018 as the Fed gradually increased rates, but the COVID-19 pandemic led to emergency rate cuts, causing new record lows for CD rates [4] - Following the pandemic, inflation prompted the Fed to hike rates 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023, resulting in higher rates on loans and savings products, including CDs [5] Current Trends and Future Expectations - As of September 2024, the Fed began cutting the federal funds rate, leading to a decrease in CD rates from their peak, although they remain high by historical standards [6] - Traditionally, longer-term CDs offered higher interest rates, but currently, the highest average CD rate is for a 12-month term, indicating a flattening or inversion of the yield curve [6][7] Choosing the Best CD - When selecting a CD, factors such as goals, type of financial institution, account terms, and inflation should be considered to ensure the best fit for individual needs [8]

Core Insights - Deposit account rates are declining, but competitive returns on certificates of deposit (CDs) can still be locked in, with the best CDs offering rates above 4% [1] Group 1: Current CD Rates - The best short-term CDs (six to 12 months) currently offer rates around 4% to 4.5% APY, with the highest rate at 4.45% APY for an 8-month CD from LendingClub as of September 24, 2025 [2] - Historical trends show that average one-year CDs paid around 1% APY by 2009, with five-year CDs at less than 2% APY following the 2008 financial crisis [2] Group 2: Historical Context - The trend of falling CD rates continued into the 2010s, with average rates on 6-month CDs dropping to about 0.1% APY by 2013 [3] - The Federal Reserve's policies, particularly keeping the benchmark interest rate near zero, led to very low CD rates during this period [3] - Between 2015 and 2018, CD rates improved slightly as the Fed began to increase rates, but the COVID-19 pandemic caused emergency rate cuts, leading to new record lows for CD rates [4] Group 3: Recent Developments - Following the pandemic, inflation prompted the Fed to hike rates 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023, resulting in higher APYs on savings products, including CDs [5] - As of September 2024, the Fed started cutting the federal funds rate, leading to a decrease in CD rates from their peak, although they remain high by historical standards [6] Group 4: Understanding CD Rates - Traditionally, longer-term CDs offered higher interest rates, but currently, the highest average CD rate is for a 12-month term, indicating a flattening or inversion of the yield curve [7] - Factors to consider when choosing a CD include goals for locking away funds, type of financial institution, account terms, and inflation [8]

Overview of Bitcoin-Backed Fixed Income - Strategy has established the first comprehensive Bitcoin-backed yield curve [1] - The report aims to dissect STRC, STRD, STRK, and STRF, detailing ownership suitability and collateral mathematics underpinning double-digit coupons [1] - The analysis serves as a blueprint for understanding the integration of fixed-income instruments with hard-capped digital collateral [1] Focus on Bitcoin Credit - The report intends to decode the future of Bitcoin credit [2]

Core Insights - Deposit account rates are declining, but competitive returns on certificates of deposit (CDs) can still be locked in, with the best CDs offering rates above 4% [1] - The highest CD rate currently available is 4.45% APY for an 8-month CD from LendingClub as of September 23, 2025 [2] Historical Trends - CD rates were relatively high in the early 2000s but began to decline due to economic slowdowns and Federal Reserve rate cuts, with average one-year CDs at around 1% APY by 2009 [3] - The trend of falling CD rates continued into the 2010s, with average rates for 6-month CDs dropping to about 0.1% APY by 2013 [4] - A slight recovery in CD rates occurred between 2015 and 2018 as the Fed gradually increased rates, but the COVID-19 pandemic led to emergency rate cuts, causing new record lows [5] - Following the pandemic, inflation prompted the Fed to hike rates 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023, resulting in higher APYs on savings products, including CDs [6] - As of September 2024, the Fed began cutting the federal funds rate, leading to a decrease in CD rates from their peak, although they remain high by historical standards [7] Current Market Dynamics - Traditionally, longer-term CDs offered higher interest rates, but currently, the highest average CD rate is for a 12-month term, indicating a flattening or inversion of the yield curve [8] - When selecting a CD, factors such as goals, type of financial institution, account terms, and inflation should be considered to ensure the best fit for individual needs [9]