【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 格隆汇11月18日｜市场对美联储12月减息的预期再度降温，比特币Bitcoin(BTC)跌穿9万美元大关，为 今年4月以来最低水平，蒸发今年以来逾30%的升幅。 ...

分析指出，由于市场对美联储12月再度减息预期降温，导致风险资产再度受压，加密货币市场波动也在 所难免。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 加密货币"一哥"比特币一度跌破9.3万美元，至92979美元，跌至4月30日以来最低水平，意味着今年以 来逾三成的升幅差不多蒸发。不过，据CoinDesk报价资料显示，比特币已从低位回升，现报95764美 元。 数据显示，比特币在10月突破12.6万美元关口后，便掉头大幅下跌，一度抹去今年以来升幅，其总市值 已从10月的高位暴跌约6000亿美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) will continue to adhere to the principle of "capital preservation first, long-term value enhancement" while managing the foreign exchange fund cautiously and flexibly [1] Group 1: Investment Environment - The investment environment is positively influenced by central bank monetary policies, geopolitical situations, and the surge in artificial intelligence [1] - Major asset classes performed well, with major stock market indices reaching new highs during the third quarter [1] - Hong Kong stocks benefited from capital inflows, rising approximately 12% in the third quarter [1] Group 2: Bond Market - Despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in September, U.S. dollar bond yields remain high, providing decent interest income for the bond portfolio held by the foreign exchange fund [1] - The U.S. dollar strengthened against other major currencies in the third quarter, leading to some foreign exchange valuation adjustments for the foreign exchange fund's assets [1] - Overall, the foreign exchange fund recorded good investment income in the first nine months of 2025, with all major asset classes achieving positive returns [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The investment environment for the remainder of 2025 remains highly uncertain [1] - While further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may improve investment sentiment, concerns about the U.S. economic outlook will persist [1] - The impact of U.S. government trade policies, trade tensions, and fluctuating geopolitical situations on financial markets remains unpredictable [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve recently decided to lower interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4% [1] - The decision aligns with market expectations, but there is increasing division among committee members regarding economic outlook [1] - Chairman Powell emphasized that the next meeting's decision will depend on economic data, indicating uncertainty in future rate cuts [1] Group 2: Gold Market - Gold prices have accelerated their decline due to increased uncertainty around interest rate cuts and weakened demand as a safe-haven asset amid U.S.-China trade negotiations [2] - Technical indicators suggest that gold's downward trend may continue, with the relative strength index (RSI) rising from an extreme oversold level of 28 to 36, but still below 50 [2] - Key resistance levels for gold are at $4041 and $4111, while a drop below the 200-day SMA around $3937 could increase selling pressure [2] Group 3: Silver Market - Silver prices have rebounded to $47.50 but remain in a challenging position due to lower industrial demand and speculative influences [3] - The price found support near the 50-day SMA at $45.5, and a breakout above $48 could attract selling pressure [3] - Short-term support is at $46.95, with a potential drop below this level leading to further declines towards $45.55 [3] Group 4: Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a post-deleveraging phase, with low activity in digital asset enterprises [3] - Progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations is helping to restore normal capital flows, and Solana (SOL) launched its first spot ETF with $800 million in inflows [3] - The upcoming "super earnings week" for tech stocks may also impact cryptocurrency-related stocks like Strategy and Coinbase, with a gradual recovery in market vitality expected [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from 招银国际 indicates that the U.S. CPI in September showed a slight recovery year-on-year, but it was below market expectations. The core CPI experienced a slowdown month-on-month, primarily due to a drop in used car prices, while prices of imported goods rebounded significantly, reflecting ongoing tariff effects [1]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The inflation rebound was less than anticipated, leading the Federal Reserve to focus more on employment risks, with expectations of a potential rate cut in October or December, targeting a year-end federal funds rate of 3.75%-4% [1]. - The October CPI is likely to be suspended, and based on historical data from 2013, the first CPI data after a long hiatus may show significant deviations due to limited sample data, increasing uncertainty regarding the timing of rate cuts [1]. Banking System and Future Projections - As the banking system's reserves approach a reasonable level of abundance, the Federal Reserve may soon halt quantitative tightening (QT) [1]. - Looking ahead to next year, as economic growth stabilizes and inflation declines, the Federal Reserve may implement two additional rate cuts, with a year-end target for the federal funds rate of 3.25%-3.5% [1].

Core Insights - The Standard Chartered Hong Kong SME Leading Business Index rebounded to its highest level of 44.5 in Q4 2025 after dropping to a 13-quarter low of 40.5 in Q3 2025, primarily driven by a significant recovery in the "Global Economy" sub-index, which increased by 12.0 points [1] - The overall business confidence among SMEs has shown a notable recovery, with all five sub-indices rising, particularly the "Global Economy" sub-index, which recorded a strong rebound to 32.6 [1][2] - Despite the positive trends, short-term challenges remain, as "Business Conditions" and "Profit Performance" indices are still around the low 40s, indicating ongoing concerns [1] Industry Performance - Among the 11 industries surveyed, all except the "Construction" sector saw increases, with significant gains in the "Real Estate," "Finance and Insurance," "Transportation, Warehousing and Courier Services," and "Retail" sectors [2] - 46% of SMEs expect raw material costs to rise, a slight decrease from the previous quarter, indicating a slowdown in cost increase expectations [2] - 95% of SMEs plan to maintain or increase their investments this quarter, up by 3 percentage points from the last quarter, with 6% indicating they will increase their investment amounts [2] Trade and Market Outlook - The "Import and Export Trade and Wholesale" and "Transportation, Warehousing and Courier Services" sectors ranked lower in the industry index, reflecting ongoing uncertainties in trade relations, particularly between the US and China [2] - The cautious approach taken by both the UK and China is expected to have a positive impact on SMEs, as communication between the two parties continues [2][3] - Companies are likely to pursue overseas expansion to mitigate risks associated with unstable tariffs, supported by government funding to assist SMEs in entering international markets [3]

Core Viewpoint - Amundi's 2025 global investment outlook indicates a strong performance in the US stock market, while European markets are stabilizing, influenced by AI capital expenditure expectations and a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The US stock market reached new highs in August, while European markets approached March levels, with corporate credit spreads narrowing during the summer [1] - Market sentiment is buoyed by strong earnings in the US and a relatively mild position from the Federal Reserve during the Jackson Hole meeting, despite underlying economic risks [1] Group 2: Interest Rates and Fiscal Policies - Key themes for the medium term include rising US inflation expectations, increased fiscal spending plans in the US and EU, and ongoing accommodative monetary policies, leading to rising yields across major economies [2] - The yield curve is steepening due to concerns over fiscal deficits, particularly in the US and Europe, with long-term yields expected to rise further due to pension reforms in some European countries [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Amid rising geopolitical risks, Amundi suggests diversifying investments away from the US market towards Europe and Japan, as Europe is better positioned to mitigate tariff-related shocks through fiscal and monetary policies [3] - The company emphasizes the importance of maintaining a focus on financially sound companies and special risks, while also capitalizing on opportunities arising from weak stock prices [3] Group 4: Emerging Markets - Emerging markets are showing signs of recovery, with improvements in economic conditions in countries like China and India, while Brazil and Indonesia's political situations are back in focus [4] - Internal tax reforms in countries like India are expected to boost domestic consumption, which is a key growth driver, and the overall positive outlook for emerging markets is supported by a dovish Federal Reserve [4] Group 5: Risk Assets and Economic Outlook - Despite a lack of extreme macroeconomic data in the US and Europe, Amundi maintains a cautious outlook on US economic growth due to deteriorating labor market conditions and potential consumption suppression from tariffs [5] - The company is slightly optimistic about risk assets, including emerging markets, and suggests allocating to gold and stock hedging tools to enhance protection against geopolitical risks and fiscal deterioration [5]

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged, breaking the $50 per ounce mark, marking a 74% increase year-to-date, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and private investment inflows [1][3] Group 1: Price Movement and Market Dynamics - Silver prices reached a historic high of over $50 per ounce on October 9, 2023, and have stabilized above this level [1] - Investment demand is identified as the primary driver for the recent increase in silver prices, with a noted correlation where every additional 1,000 tons purchased typically raises the price by approximately 1.6% [3] Group 2: Risks and Volatility - Goldman Sachs highlights that silver's price volatility and downside risks are significant, with two main risks identified: a potential decline in ETF inflows and supply chain disruptions due to tariff investigations affecting silver imports [3] - Unlike gold, silver lacks structural support from central bank demand, and industrial demand is not a major driver for long-term price increases [3] - The silver market's liquidity is considerably lower than that of gold, with its market size being about one-ninth that of gold, leading to greater price volatility and heightened risks during investor repositioning [3]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that high prices for copper, aluminum, and zinc reflect investor bullish sentiment for 2026, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and capital expenditures related to artificial intelligence [1] Group 1: Copper Market - Goldman Sachs expects copper prices to remain in the range of $10,000 to $11,000 per ton in 2026 and 2027 [1] - Short-term price upside for copper is limited to $11,000 per ton due to an anticipated oversupply in the market [1] - The long-term outlook for copper remains positive despite short-term supply concerns [1] Group 2: Aluminum Market - The aluminum market faces significant downside risks due to increased supply from Indonesia [1] - The expectation of rising supply may pressure aluminum prices in the near term [1] Group 3: Zinc Market - The zinc market is at a critical turning point, with Chinese export arbitrage expected to open soon [1] Group 4: Nickel Market - The nickel market may continue to experience oversupply, with prices projected to decline to $14,500 per ton to mitigate supply growth [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to rebound in early September, with AI internet and technology sectors, as well as the non-ferrous metals industry, becoming the structural main lines [1] - The report suggests that while foreign capital inflow has long-term growth potential, the path of the current interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may be complicated, leading to significant divergence in macroeconomic and interest rate policy expectations [1] - Short-term substantial policy benefits are limited, with banks facing narrowing net interest margins and liquidity remaining stable, indicating a higher likelihood of targeted reserve requirement ratio cuts [1] Group 2 - The investment strategy recommends focusing on technology (AI internet large-cap and high-end manufacturing small-cap) and non-ferrous metals, while also increasing allocation to Hong Kong insurance stocks, "turnaround" opportunities, and high-dividend value strategies [2] - There is a caution regarding the manipulation risk of small-cap stocks, with specific examples provided, and a recommendation to pay attention to corporate governance to avoid risks associated with concentrated ownership by major shareholders [2]