渣打指出，如果美联储在2026年加大降息幅度以稳定劳动力市场，该行预计HIBOR存在下行风险。此 外，首次公开募股(IPO)、股票分红派息和其他季节性需求可能继续引发利率波动。 渣打续指，鉴于股市资金流入放缓以及香港房地产市场仍在复苏之中，该行预计2026年初美元兑港元即 期汇价进一步下行的空间有限;尽管由于年未季节性因素，以及指数调整带来程度稍弱一些的影响，港 元流动性可能会出现初步收紧。同时，由于债务掉期活动持续，港元交叉货币掉期可能面临进一步的升 值压力。 渣打大中华区经济师陈冠霖表示，该行预计HIBOR将基本反映SOFR的走势。目前该行预计美联储在 2026年不再减息，并预计3个月HIBOR将在3%附近(此前为3.5%)波动。 他补充，随着受惠于AI相关投资带动，预期美国经济增长有所加快，美国通胀率有机会上升，对于美 国减息空间有一定影响，料美联储2026年减息空间不大。 渣打表示，今年6月下旬至8月中旬期间，由于多次触发港元弱方兑换保证，香港金管局根据联系汇率制 度购入港元并卖出美元;因此，银行体系总结余从5月底的1734亿港元缩减至8月底的541亿港元，并在10 月的最新更新中已趋于稳定。随着银行 ...

格隆汇1月1日｜2025年最后一个交易日金价下跌，但全年计，金价升64%，创1979年以来46年最大升 幅。金价上升主要是美联储减息、地缘政治风险升温、各国央行增持，以及资金持续流入黄金ETF交易 所买卖基金等推动向上。 金融畅销书《货币战争》作者里卡斯(James Rickards)近期在媒体访问中预 期，金价2026年底前有望冲上一万美元，白银亦可能上望200美元。里卡斯称当前黄金牛市背后的传统 驱动因素，即各国央行的需求和相对停滞的供应，在2026年相当长一段时间内依然有效。 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices are trading around $4,340, having surged approximately 1% in a recent session, driven by weak U.S. employment data and expectations of a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [1] - The technical analysis indicates that gold is holding above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $4,258, with an upward slope suggesting a sustained upward trend [1] - The MACD indicator is above the signal line and in positive territory, indicating that the upward momentum remains strong, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to 60, suggesting that the market is not yet in overbought territory [1] Group 2: Silver Market - Silver has reached a historical high of $66.89 but is currently experiencing high-level fluctuations, with the MACD turning positive, indicating increased upward pressure [2] - The immediate support for silver is at the historical high of $64.72, followed by trendline support around $63.35 and a low of $60.87 from December 12 [2] - While short-term adjustments may be expected, silver still holds long-term potential, with the next target levels at the Fibonacci extension of $68.30 and $70.00 [2] Group 3: Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin and Ethereum are showing weakness, with multiple rebounds failing to stabilize, indicating a trend of gradually decreasing lows [2] - Following the "1011" crash, the futures leverage in the crypto market has been fully cleared, bringing speculative leverage rates to historical lows, which is seen as a positive signal for the market [2] - The cryptocurrency market is expected to benefit from anticipated U.S. tax cuts, interest rate reductions, and relaxed regulations by 2026, maintaining its long-term growth potential [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold and silver prices is primarily driven by weak U.S. employment data, which has raised expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2026, alongside geopolitical tensions due to U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers [1][3][4]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices are trading around $4,340, having risen approximately 1% in a single session, supported by the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at around $4,258, indicating an upward trend [1][3]. - The MACD indicator is above the signal line and in positive territory, suggesting that the upward momentum remains strong, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to 60, indicating that the market is not yet in overbought territory [1][4]. - If gold can maintain above the $4,300 level, it is expected to continue its upward trajectory; however, a drop below this level may lead to a consolidation phase [1][4]. Silver Market Analysis - Silver has reached a historical high of $66.89, with the MACD turning positive, indicating increased upward pressure, while the RSI at 69.62 suggests that the upward momentum may be slowing [2][4]. - The immediate resistance level is at the historical high of $66.89, with potential targets for further upward movement at the Fibonacci extension levels of $68.30 and $70.00 [2][4]. - Downward support levels are identified at $64.72, $63.35, and $60.87, indicating potential areas for price stabilization [2][4]. Cryptocurrency Market Analysis - Bitcoin and Ethereum are showing weakness, with multiple failed rebounds leading to a "gradually declining low" trend [5]. - Following the "1011" crash, the futures leverage in the cryptocurrency market has been fully cleared, resulting in a historically low speculative leverage ratio, which is seen as a positive signal for the market [5]. - The cryptocurrency market is expected to remain volatile but holds long-term potential, especially with anticipated U.S. tax cuts, interest rate reductions, and relaxed regulations by 2026 [5].

智通财经APP获悉，高盛发布研报称称，预期2026年全球经济将稳健增长2.8%，高于市场预期的2.5%。 当中，美国经济增长2.6%，基于关税拖累减轻、减税措施及金融环境更宽松。而中国经济预期将保持 韧性，同比增长4.8%，强劲的出口表现将抵消内需疲弱的影响。虽然面对长期挑战，但该行对欧元区 明年的预测仍相对乐观，料经济增长1.3%，主要基于德国的财政刺激及西班牙的强劲增长。 息口方面，该行预计美国联储局将减息50个基点至3%至3.25%，并存在鸽派风险。该行预期英国及许多 新兴市场也将减息，尤其巴西及中东欧、中东与非洲地区(CEEMEA)，当中英国或减息75个基点。至于 欧元区，该行料将维持利率不变，并不同意市场定价对加拿大及澳洲加息的预期转变。 资产方面，该行对股票及许多新兴市场资产均持正面看法，相信周期性背景将主导市场，压倒估值忧 虑，但两者间的张力可能增加波动性，而市场更关注重新加杠杆的趋势可能导致信贷表现落后。 该行认为关键风险在于脆弱的劳动市场可能引发衰退忧虑，或股市可能质疑AI相关收入的价值。在这 些情况下，配置短期美国利率相关资产应具防御性。该行同时认为美元将逐步走弱，除非美国更强劲的 增长导 ...

Core Viewpoint - The investment outlook for the Chinese stock market is positive, with expectations of a rebound in earnings growth from a low base in 2025, leading to an upgrade in valuation attractiveness [1] Group 1: Chinese Stock Market - Standard Chartered maintains an overweight position on Chinese stocks, predicting the Hang Seng Index to range between 28,000 and 30,000 points over the next 12 months [1] - If investment sentiment deteriorates or if there is insufficient policy support, the index could drop to a range of 26,000 to 28,000 points [1] - Concerns about asset valuation and potential bubbles in artificial intelligence capital expenditure may increase next year, with volatility being more significant than the bubble debate [1] Group 2: Interest Rates and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times next year, with a potential total reduction of 75 basis points by the end of 2026 [1] - The macroeconomic outlook remains favorable for risk assets, supported by anticipated interest rate cuts [1] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The company suggests a diversified investment strategy, recommending an overweight position in gold and global equities while reducing exposure to European (excluding the UK) and Japanese stocks [1] - India is recommended for an overweight position due to its favorable outlook [1] Group 4: Emerging Bonds and Gold - The company is overweight on emerging market bonds, expecting them to outperform developed markets as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields may fall to between 3.75% and 4% over the next 12 months [2] - Gold is anticipated to challenge new highs, with spot gold potentially reaching $4,800 next year as central banks and investors seek alternatives to the dollar [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve appears to be in no rush to further cut interest rates, with a focus on labor market conditions and a belief that inflation is temporary [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75%, with a split decision among FOMC members [1] - The latest economic forecasts show an increase in GDP growth from 1.8% to 2.3% for 2026, a decrease in inflation forecast from 2.6% to 2.4%, and an unchanged unemployment rate forecast at 4.4% [1] - The median policy rate forecast remains unchanged, indicating one rate cut each in 2026 and 2027 [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Powell emphasized that the outlook for employment and inflation has not changed significantly, although labor demand has noticeably slowed [2] - Recent rate cuts are seen as stabilizing the labor market, with service sector inflation showing signs of decline [2] - Overall, Federal Reserve officials maintain an optimistic view on strong consumer spending, fiscal support, and investment, particularly in the artificial intelligence sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% is expected to have a positive impact on the Hong Kong property market, potentially stimulating demand and increasing transaction volumes [1][2][4][11]. Group 1: Impact on Mortgage Market - The Fed's rate cut is seen as a "liberation" for the Hong Kong mortgage market, likely reducing borrowing costs and enhancing home-buying and upgrading demand [2][11]. - Lower mortgage rates could create an attractive "window period" for potential buyers, especially those sensitive to mortgage costs [2][4]. - The reduction in mortgage costs is expected to alleviate repayment pressures for homeowners, encouraging them to re-enter the market [2][11]. Group 2: Market Activity and Price Predictions - The anticipated increase in demand, coupled with improved bank financing conditions, is expected to boost both secondary and primary property transaction volumes in the short term [3][5]. - High property prices have shown signs of recovery, with a projected increase of 3-5% in Hong Kong property prices by 2026 due to the Fed's actions and local demand factors [4][5]. - The market is expected to see a rise in transactions, particularly in the luxury segment, with predictions of record-high sales in the second half of 2025 [8][9]. Group 3: Buyer Sentiment and Market Confidence - The Fed's rate cut is believed to enhance buyer confidence, potentially leading to a resurgence in market activity as previously hesitant buyers reconsider their options [6][11]. - The current environment is viewed as a favorable entry point for buyers, especially for those looking to purchase or upgrade their homes [10][12]. - The overall sentiment in the market is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of a gradual recovery in transaction volumes and prices [7][12].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has reduced interest rates by 0.25% as expected, but there is significant disagreement among members regarding the future direction of rates [1] Group 1: Predictions on Future Rate Cuts - DWS maintains its prediction of two additional rate cuts in 2026, emphasizing that the labor market will be a key factor [2] - CICC also expects two rate cuts in 2026, but notes that the pace of cuts may slow down due to persistent inflation [3] - Morgan Asset Management believes there is still room for rate cuts in 2026, but sees little likelihood of a cut in January [4] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Market Reactions - Invesco highlights the political pressure on the Federal Reserve regarding rate cuts, indicating that this pressure is unlikely to dissipate in the short term [5] - Charles Schwab points out that the recent rate cut reflects deepening concerns about the labor market, despite inflation remaining above the 2% target [6] - Janus Henderson states that the era of preventive easing has ended, with future policy decisions being data-driven [7] Group 3: Market Strategies and Predictions - Fidelity expects a generally accommodative monetary policy next year, maintaining a bullish stance on the stock market, particularly in Japan and emerging markets [8][9] - Abbot anticipates a market rebound following the rate cut, but suggests that the Fed's monetary policy will no longer act as a market catalyst [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential interest rate cut by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and its implications for the U.S. economy and markets, highlighting political pressures and expected economic growth driven by upcoming legislation [1]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Stephen Miran, a recent appointee by President Trump to the FOMC, supports a 50 basis points rate cut, while Trump advocates for a cut greater than 25 basis points [1]. - The political pressure on the Federal Reserve is expected to persist in the short term, especially with Powell's anticipated retirement on May 15, 2026 [1]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Despite indications from the Federal Reserve that rate cuts may be fewer than market expectations over the next year, the economy is projected to remain robust [1]. - The "One Big Beautiful Bill" legislation is expected to stimulate U.S. economic growth, potentially exceeding initial forecasts [1]. Group 3: Market Implications - The U.S. stock market is anticipated to continue its upward trend until 2026, with a more diverse range of leading sectors [1]. - Rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, combined with improvements in nominal economic growth, are seen as favorable for small and medium-sized enterprises [1]. - A weaker dollar is likely to result from the Fed's rate cuts, which could benefit emerging market stocks and local currency bonds [1].