Core Viewpoint - Analyst Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research upgraded Stanley Black & Decker from "underperform" to "peer perform," indicating a potential stabilization in the stock's performance [1][3] Group 1: Market Analysis - Coe suggests that the demand for Stanley's products is likely at a low point, or "trough," and anticipates a rebound, particularly if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates [3] - The company is currently experiencing its third consecutive year of declining sales, but there is a consensus among analysts that earnings will grow this year and continue to grow for at least the next couple of years [4] Group 2: Financial Performance - Long-term growth rate projections for Stanley Black & Decker are estimated at a respectable 11% annualized [4] - The company reported strong free cash flow of $765 million over the past year, which is twice the reported GAAP earnings [4] - At a valuation of 14 times free cash flow and a dividend yield of 4.7%, Stanley's stock appears to be undervalued [5]

"此前，我曾认为英国经济会软着陆，2025年通胀仍有上行风险，"泰勒在葡萄牙辛特拉举行的欧洲央行 论坛上发表讲话时说。"现在我认为软着陆面临风险，随着需求疲软和贸易混乱的加剧，2026年经济弱 于预期、使我们偏离轨道的可能性增大。"泰勒自9月加入MPC以来，已在七次会议中五度投票赞成降 息。5月会议上他支持大幅降息0.5个百分点，6月会议则支持降息0.25个百分点。他周三告诉彭博电视， 他认为不一定需要更大幅度的降息，不过，由于MPC每年只有八次会议，这对寻求加快宽松步伐的决 策者来说是一个分配问题。自加入MPC以来，泰勒就因清晰传达对利率走势的预期而吸引经济学家关 注，他在讲话中说，MPC如果能找到一种工具来传达对未来利率的看法，将会"受益匪浅"。"第一季的 一些冲击和杂音影响了我对经济和全球发展的看法，基于我对前景不断恶化的解读，我认为我们需要一 条更低的利率路径，在2025年需要降息五次，而不是市场预期的四次逐季降息，"泰勒说。泰勒在演讲 中展示的图表显示，如果他对经济的下行预期成真，明年下半年利率可能降至2.25%左右。英国央行上 个月将利率维持在4.25%不变，投资者目前押注央行将再有两次的降息25 ...

Goldman Sachs global chief economist Yan Hatius joins us with his first take on the report looks good from the headlines but as I highlighted earlier beneath the surface you know where the job growth was concentrated why the unemployment rate came down wasn't all that great what do you think true it overstates the strength of the report if you just look at the headline numbers I think on the establishment survey the private sector was pretty soft and the big headline number was really driven by increas piec ...

Poland’s central bank Governor Adam Glapinski pushes back against growing market expectations that a surprise interest rate cut on Wednesday has kicked off an easing cycle https://t.co/hXXQIlQVph ...

Market Overview - In 2025, markets are experiencing high volatility, with NASDAQ and S&P 500 indices reaching all-time highs despite uncertain economic indicators [1][2] - Analysts anticipate clearer monetary and tariff policies in the second half of the year, along with solid earnings reports, particularly in the tech sector driven by AI [2] Company Insights - **CME Group**: - Operates the largest derivatives marketplace, benefiting from increased trading volumes in volatile markets [5] - Stock has risen over 40% in the last 12 months and over 18% in 2025, showing signs of recovery after a pullback [6][7] - **Goldman Sachs**: - A leading global investment bank that thrives in volatile markets, generating revenue from expanded bid-ask spreads and increased trading activity [9][10] - Stock is up 23.8% in 2025, with bullish momentum but potential for a short-term pullback [11] - **MarketAxess**: - Operates an electronic trading platform for corporate bonds, expected to benefit from increased trading volumes as credit market volatility rises [13][14] - Stock is down 1.5% in 2025 but has shown a 3.1% increase in the last three months, indicating a potential breakout [15][16]

Inflation & Monetary Policy - Central banks have done a good job taming the great inflation of 2022 [1] - The primary concern should be the inflation trajectory, as it dictates the direction of interest rates [3][4] - Current policy is broadly in line with a neutral stance, with analysts suggesting a 7% nominal rate indicates neutral territory [14][15] - Uncertainty about the inflation trajectory persists due to past volatility [15] Inflation Target & Policy Revision - There's an opportunity for "opportunistic disinflation," using a low inflation environment to anchor inflation expectations [5][11] - The current inflation target range is considered too wide and high compared to peers, necessitating a revision [10] - The South African Reserve Bank is undergoing a review, with recommendations to lower the inflation target to 2-3% [6][8] - Lowering the inflation target could lead to lower nominal interest rates [14] Risks & Communication - Geopolitical shocks and policy decisions (tariffs) can impact the economic outlook [2] - Scenarios are useful for policymakers to communicate potential risks and future trajectories, but require careful communication to avoid public misinterpretation [16][17]

Investment Rating - The report has shifted its forecast for the next 25 basis point (bp) rate cut to September, previously expected in December, and has lowered the terminal funds rate forecast to 3-3.25% from 3.5-3.75% [2][3][22] Core Insights - The report indicates that the odds of a rate cut in September are somewhat above 50%, driven by underwhelming tariff effects, larger disinflationary offsets, and potential labor market softness [2][13][10] - The expectation is for three consecutive 25bp cuts in September, October, and December 2025, with additional cuts anticipated in March and June 2026 [3][22] - The report highlights that recent evidence suggests tariff effects on consumer prices are smaller than previously expected, contributing to a more favorable environment for rate cuts [5][4][10] Summary by Sections Rate Cut Forecast - The forecast for the next rate cut has been moved forward to September, with expectations of three 25bp cuts in September, October, and December 2025 [2][3][22] - The terminal rate forecast has been reduced to 3-3.25%, reflecting a change in outlook regarding the economy's performance at higher interest rates [14][18][22] Inflation and Tariff Effects - Recent comments from Fed officials indicate potential support for a cut in September if inflation data is not excessively high [4][6] - Evidence shows that tariff impacts on consumer prices are less significant than anticipated, with moderating wage growth and weak demand for travel providing additional disinflationary pressure [5][10][11] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market remains healthy, but job openings are slowly declining, making it harder for unemployed individuals to find jobs, which could influence the timing of rate cuts [10][11][12] - Near-term risks to payrolls are noted due to changes in immigration policy and residual seasonality, which could prompt earlier cuts if employment data shows weakness [10][13]

Core Viewpoint - TMC The Metals Company has experienced a significant increase in stock price, driven by positive market momentum and favorable analyst coverage, despite some sell-offs in the latter half of the trading week [1][2][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - TMC's stock closed the week up 3.8%, outperforming the S&P 500 index, which rallied by 3.4% [1]. - The stock has risen 44% over the last month, largely due to bullish market sentiment and a major investment from Korea Zinc [2]. - Following Wedbush's upgrade of TMC's rating from neutral to outperform, the stock saw a significant increase in trading activity [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Positive macroeconomic indicators, including potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, have contributed to a bullish market outlook [4]. - A ceasefire between Israel and Iran has also provided a favorable geopolitical backdrop, enhancing investor sentiment [4]. Group 3: Analyst Coverage - Wedbush raised its one-year price target for TMC from $6 to $11 per share, indicating a potential upside of approximately 61.5% [5]. - The positive analyst coverage has played a crucial role in boosting TMC's stock performance [5]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment - The U.S. is increasing its domestic mineral production capabilities amid geopolitical tensions with China, which may benefit TMC [6]. - TMC still faces regulatory hurdles but the overall conditions appear to be improving for the company [6].

Market Overview - The market has recovered most of its losses from earlier in the quarter, finishing strong despite initial turbulence caused by President Trump's trade policies [1][2] - The upcoming week is expected to be shortened, following a quarter that started poorly but ended on a high note, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a steady investment approach [2] Company Insights - Constellation Brands is expected to report disappointing earnings, reflecting broader challenges in the consumer packaged goods sector [4] - The company faces headwinds from the rise of GLP-1 weight loss drugs and increasing consumer preference for cannabis, which are negatively impacting alcohol sales [4] - Constellation Brands' sales are particularly affected by Trump's immigration policies, as approximately half of its beer sales come from Hispanic consumers who are now spending less due to concerns over employment [4] Economic Indicators - The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index will be released, serving as a key indicator of the industrial economy's health, with potential implications for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [3] - Mortgage application figures are anticipated, which have been described as a significant burden on the economy [5] - The labor report set to be released on Thursday is critical; weak data could lead to renewed criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and raise the possibility of a rate cut in July [5]

Company Performance - Nike reported fiscal Q4 earnings of $0.14 per share, exceeding expectations by $0.02, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of beating estimates [5] - Revenues for Nike in Q4 were $11.1 billion, although this represents a decline from $12.61 billion in the same quarter last year [5] - Full-year revenues for Nike totaled $46.3 billion, which was above the Zacks consensus but still down 10% year over year [6] - North America revenues for Nike decreased by 11% year over year, a trend that was consistent across all global regions [6] - Despite a strong trading day with a gain of 2.8%, Nike shares fell by 1.6% following the earnings announcement [6] Market Overview - The stock market is showing resilience, with all markets except the small-cap Russell 2000 up for the year, and the S&P 500 nearing all-time highs [2] - The AI sector is experiencing a resurgence, with companies like NVIDIA and Palantir reaching new record highs [2] - The White House indicated that the July 9th deadline on reciprocal tariffs is "not critical," which has alleviated concerns among investors [3] - Continuing Jobless Claims have worsened, suggesting a weakening labor market, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates [4] Economic Indicators - Upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data is anticipated, with year-over-year projections of 2.3% growth and 2.6% on core PCE, close to the Fed's inflation target of 2.0% [7]