Time now for money power politics. Today we got two key pieces of information about where our economy is headed. Last month, consumer prices rose by almost 3%.That is the biggest gain since January. Jobless claims also hit a 4-year high. This all comes ahead, of course, next week's Fed meeting where they are widely expected to cut rates.And the markets clearly think those cuts are still coming. Despite today's news on inflation and the labor market, what did the market do. It went up.Joining me now to discu ...

China urged Mexico to “think twice” before levying tariffs, a warning that could signal Beijing’s willingness to retaliate https://t.co/zJy8LK9eBn ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Crocs, Inc. is facing challenges due to tariffs and macroeconomic uncertainty affecting consumer confidence, leading to a year-to-date stock decline of 22% [1] Group 2 - The footwear company operates in the consumer discretionary sector, which is particularly sensitive to economic fluctuations and consumer spending patterns [1] - The current market conditions suggest that consumer discretionary companies like Crocs may continue to struggle if macroeconomic factors do not improve [1]

Inflation Overview - The consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.9% year over year in August compared to 2.7% in July, with a month-over-month increase of 0.4% compared to July's 0.2% [2] - Core CPI remained unchanged, reflecting a 0.3% monthly and 3.1% annual increase, indicating stability in underlying inflation trends [2] Shelter Costs - Shelter costs increased by 0.4% in August, contributing significantly to the CPI's monthly rise, with rent up by 0.3% and lodging away from home rising by 2.3% [4] - Homebuilder stocks, such as Toll Brothers (TOL), may become more attractive as rising rent prices could drive more buyers to the market, especially with mortgage rates at their lowest in a year [5] Food Prices - Overall monthly food costs rose by 0.5% and 2.7% annually, with food at home increasing by 0.6% monthly and food away from home by 0.3% monthly [7] - Retailers like Walmart (WMT) may benefit from the increase in food costs, while premium dining establishments like Chipotle (CMG) are experiencing reduced consumer spending [9][10] Energy Sector - Monthly energy costs increased by 0.7% and were up 2.2% year over year, driven by a 1.9% rise in gasoline prices [11] - Oil companies such as Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) could capitalize on higher energy prices, especially if geopolitical tensions affect crude oil supply [12] Transportation Services - Used car and truck prices rose by 1.0% monthly and 6.0% annually, while airline fares increased by 5.9% month over month [13] - Long-term investment opportunities may arise in major automakers like General Motors (GM) and airlines like Delta Air Lines (DAL), which are expected to navigate inflationary pressures effectively [14] Apparel Industry - Apparel costs increased by 0.5% monthly and 0.2% annually, indicating tariff-driven inflation [15] - Companies with strong brand recognition and pricing power, such as Ralph Lauren (RL), may perform better despite overall consumer spending declines in the apparel sector [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - US stocks exhibited mixed trading patterns as investors assessed the economy ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision [1] Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.4%, while the S&P 500 slipped below the flat line; in contrast, the Nasdaq Composite rose approximately 0.4% [2] - All three major indexes reached record highs on Thursday, with the Dow closing above 46,000 for the first time [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent jobs data indicated labor market weakness, with just over 20,000 jobs added last month and initial jobless claims reaching a near four-year high [3] - Inflation remains persistent, with consumer prices increasing last month, influenced by President Trump's tariffs [4] - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey revealed a larger-than-expected decline in consumer sentiment for September, as concerns over tariffs grew [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve Expectations - Traders are anticipating a greater than 90% chance of a quarter-point interest rate cut during the Fed's September meeting, with around 75% expecting three cuts by year-end [5] - The lead-up to the Fed's meeting is expected to be quieter, with all major stock indexes on track for weekly gains exceeding 1% [5]

Core Viewpoint - US stocks exhibited mixed performance as investors assessed the economy ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision [1] Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.4%, while the S&P 500 slipped below the flat line, and the Nasdaq Composite rose approximately 0.3% [2] - All three major indexes reached record highs on Thursday, with the Dow closing above 46,000 for the first time [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent jobs data indicated labor market weakness, with just over 20,000 jobs added last month and weekly initial jobless claims reaching a near four-year high [3] - Inflation remains persistent, with consumer prices increasing last month, influenced by President Trump's tariffs [3] Group 3: Consumer Sentiment and Expectations - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey revealed a larger-than-expected decline in consumer sentiment for September, with long-run inflation expectations rising to 3.9% [4] - Investors are optimistic that inflation is manageable enough for the Fed to implement a rate cut next week [4] Group 4: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - Traders are anticipating a greater than 90% chance of a quarter-point cut during the Fed's September meeting, with around 75% expecting three cuts by the end of the year [5] - The lead-up to the Fed's meeting is expected to be quieter, with major stock indexes on track for weekly gains exceeding 1% [5]

Economic Indicators - The recent jobless claims report showed an unexpected increase to 263,000, which is significantly higher than the anticipated 212,000, indicating potential labor market weakness [2][4] - Inflation numbers are reported at 2.9% year-over-year and 3.1% on core, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures despite expectations [3][4] Federal Reserve Implications - The Federal Reserve may face challenges in its monetary policy decisions due to the labor market's potential weakening, which could necessitate a rate cut if the jobless claims trend continues [4][11] - If inflation remains stable, the Fed might consider a modest rate cut of 25 basis points [4] Market Dynamics - There is a significant amount of capital sitting in Treasury bills, indicating that large institutions may not be fully engaged in the stock market [8] - The stock market is expected to see upward movement, with predictions of the Dow approaching 50,000 in the fourth quarter [9] Gold and Alternative Investments - Gold has recently broken its inflation-adjusted all-time high, suggesting strong investor interest and potential for continued growth in this asset class [14] - The ongoing competition between gold and Bitcoin is anticipated, highlighting the evolving landscape of alternative investments [15]

Hello and welcome to Ask for a Trend. I'm Josh Lipton and for the next half hour, we're breaking down the trends of today that'll move stocks tomorrow. There's a lot to keep track of, so we're focusing on what you need to know to get ahead of the curve. Here's some of the trends we're going to be diving into. Wall Street seen green today. All major indices did end higher after fresh inflation data. As investors await any news from the Fed on a cut, are Americans feeling the pinch at the grocery store? We're ...

Yeah, hi there, John. Sorry, we're just going through this. It's a pretty long release that you usually end up seeing here.Uh we are It looks like RH is reporting n uh $2.93% adjusted. It's unclear if that is comparable to estimates, but the revenues of $899 million are shy of what the street was looking for, which was 95 million. Um and then when we are looking at the tariff impact here, they're going through fairly detailed um information in the outlook and they're calling out a $30 million hit.They're al ...

Yeah, hi there, John. Sorry, we're just going through this. It's a pretty long release that you usually end up seeing here.Uh we are It looks like RH is reporting n uh $2.93% adjusted. It's unclear if that is comparable to estimates, but the revenues of $899 million are shy of what the street was looking for, which was 95 million. Um and then when we are looking at the tariff impact here, they're going through fairly detailed um information in the outlook and they're calling out a $30 million hit.They're al ...