Group 1 - Friedrich Global Research aims to identify the safest and best performing companies for stock investment, focusing on free cash flow, efficient capital allocation, and superior results to find high-quality management teams [1] Group 2 - The founder of Bern Factor LLC has nearly 40 years of investing and analysis experience, with expertise in both quantitative and qualitative analysis, as well as technical analysis [2] - The founder has a diverse background, having worked in various sectors including retail, military, and management, which provides a broad perspective on macroeconomics and detailed operational insights [2]

Core Viewpoint - Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI) is trading at a premium compared to the Zacks Property and Casualty Insurance industry, with a price-to-book value of 1.69X, higher than the industry average of 1.55X, but lower than the Finance sector's 4.12X and the Zacks S&P 500 Composite's 8.01X [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Selective Insurance shares have decreased by 4.7% over the past year, underperforming the industry, sector, and Zacks S&P 500 composite, which grew by 17.2%, 18.1%, and 8.8% respectively [3] - The stock closed at $87.44, which is 15.5% below its 52-week high of $103.56, and is trading below the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages of $87.75 and $90.59, indicating downward momentum [4] Group 2: Growth Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Selective Insurance's 2025 earnings per share indicates a year-over-year increase of 122%, with revenues projected at $5.33 billion, reflecting a 9.5% year-over-year improvement [8] - The consensus estimates for 2026 earnings per share and revenues suggest increases of 13.9% and 7.7% respectively from the 2025 estimates [8] Group 3: Analyst Sentiment - Three out of five analysts covering SIGI have lowered their estimates for 2025, and two have done so for 2026 over the past 60 days, with the consensus estimate for 2025 earnings down by 2% and for 2026 down by 0.6% [9] Group 4: Financial Metrics - Selective Insurance is expected to achieve after-tax net investment income of $405 million for 2025, driven by improved book yields from fixed-income securities in a higher interest rate environment [7][15] - The company has demonstrated a nine-year CAGR of nearly 8.8% in dividends, with a recent 9% hike approved for the quarterly cash dividend in Q3 2024, resulting in a dividend yield of 1.7%, significantly higher than the industry average of 0.2% [16] Group 5: Operational Efficiency - The return on equity for Selective Insurance in the trailing 12 months was 8%, surpassing the industry average of 7.8%, indicating effective utilization of shareholders' funds [17] Group 6: Market Position and Challenges - Selective Insurance is well-positioned to benefit from strong renewal rates, favorable E&S lines marketplace conditions, and higher income from fixed-income securities, although challenges such as exposure to catastrophe loss and rising expenses remain [18][19]

Investment Strategy - The company employs a contrarian investment style, focusing on high-risk, illiquid options, with a portfolio split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options [1] - The investment timeframe typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, targeting stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events [1] Stock Selection Criteria - The company screens thousands of stocks, primarily in the US, looking for those with insider buying at new lower prices following sell-offs [1] - Fundamental analysis is utilized to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] - Professional background checks are conducted on insiders who purchased shares after sell-offs to ensure credibility [1] Technical Analysis - Technical analysis is employed to optimize entry and exit points, using multicolor lines for support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1] - Trend lines are drawn in multicolor patterns to aid in visualizing market movements [1]

McDonald's Corp MCD just launched a new burger in the UK called The Big Arch, but the only thing getting grilled this week is the stock.Chart created using Benzinga ProMcDonald's is now trading below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) — a widely watched indicator — in what looks like a full technical breakdown. For the Golden Arches, that's not exactly a golden signal.Shares of the fast-food giant have been sliding underperforming the S&P 500. Over the past month, MCD has lost 9%, and it's now down sli ...

Core Viewpoint - NMI Holdings Inc. (NMIH) is experiencing strong investor confidence, with shares closing at $40.69, near its 52-week high, indicating potential for further price appreciation [1] Stock Performance - NMIH shares have gained 25.1% over the past year, outperforming the Finance sector's growth of 18.4% and the Zacks S&P 500 composite's growth of 9.4% [4] - The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages of $36.94 and $37.82, respectively, indicating solid upward momentum [1] Earnings Growth - NMIH's earnings have grown by 15.7% over the last five years, with a solid surprise history of beating earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, averaging an 8.17% beat [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NMIH's 2025 earnings per share indicates a year-over-year increase of 8%, with revenues projected to reach $685.46 million, reflecting a 5.3% improvement [8] Valuation Metrics - NMIH shares are trading at a forward price-to-book value of 1.36X, lower than the industry average of 1.56X and the Finance sector's 4.11X [7] - The average target price for NMIH, based on short-term price targets from seven analysts, is $41.86 per share, suggesting a potential upside of 3.7% from the last closing price [12] Analyst Sentiment - Analysts have raised estimates for NMIH's earnings for 2025 by 5.4% and for 2026 by 1.2% over the past 60 days, indicating positive sentiment [9] Return on Capital - NMIH's return on equity (ROE) for the trailing 12 months was 17.27%, significantly higher than the industry's 7.8%, reflecting efficient utilization of shareholders' funds [14] Growth Opportunities - NMIH is well-positioned to capitalize on growth in the mortgage insurance sector, supported by a robust reinsurance strategy and increased production of both monthly and single premium policies [6][15] - The company has authorized a new $250 million share repurchase program to enhance its return profile and manage expenses effectively [17] Conclusion - NMIH is expected to benefit from favorable growth estimates, a higher return on capital, and an attractive valuation, making it a stock worth holding [19][20]

Investment Strategy - The company employs a contrarian investment style, focusing on high-risk, illiquid options and shares [1] - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, with a typical investment timeframe of 3-24 months [1] - The company targets stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, particularly when insiders are buying shares at lower prices [1] Analysis Methodology - Fundamental analysis is utilized to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] - Professional background checks are conducted on insiders who purchased shares after sell-offs to ensure credibility [1] - Technical analysis is employed to optimize entry and exit points, using multicolor lines for support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1]

Cryptocurrency Exchange Platforms - Bybit is highlighted as a preferred platform for technical analysis [1] - Binance offers a 40% fee reduction [1] - OKX provides commission waivers [1] - Pionex is recommended for grid trading [1] Cryptocurrency Topics and Analysis - Mentions various cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Dogecoin (DOGE), Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), Binance Coin (BNB), Ripple (XRP), Polkadot (DOT), Avalanche (AVAX), and Luna/Terra [1] - Focuses on technical analysis concepts such as Dow Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Fibonacci sequence, Harmonic patterns, and Gann theory [1] - Discusses trading strategies including longing, shorting, and hedging [1] - Includes topics like Bitcoin halving in 2024, Bitcoin ETFs, and Bitcoin mining [1] Resources and Community - Provides links to a Discord server, Telegram channels, a Twitter account, and online courses [1] - Offers customer support via Discord/Telegram [1]

Core Insights - Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (CBOE) shares have increased by 35.1% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 27.9%, the Finance sector's return of 20.7%, and the Zacks S&P 500 composite's appreciation of 11.2% [1] - CBOE has outperformed peers such as Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE), S&P Global Inc. (SPGI), and OTC Markets Group Inc. (OTCM), with respective share gains of 32%, 16.4%, and 2.8% in the past year [1] Company Performance - CBOE has a market capitalization of $23.69 billion, with an average trading volume of 0.9 million shares over the last three months [4] - The company has a solid track record of beating earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average beat of 1.95% [4] - CBOE shares are currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 23.19X, which is lower than the industry average of 25.89X, indicating that the shares are undervalued [5] Technical Analysis - CBOE shares closed at $226.30, trading above the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages of $221.41 and $210.75, respectively, suggesting strong upward momentum [6] Growth Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CBOE's 2025 earnings per share indicates a year-over-year increase of 10.3%, with revenues projected at $2.25 billion, reflecting an 8.4% year-over-year improvement [10] - Long-term earnings growth is expected to be 10.5%, surpassing the industry average of 10.1% [11] - CBOE's organic net revenue growth for Data Vantage is anticipated to be in the mid to high single-digit range in 2025 [9][16] Analyst Sentiment - Recent analyst activity shows one analyst has raised estimates for 2025 and another for 2026, resulting in a 0.5% and 0.2% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for those years, respectively [12] Valuation and Capital Management - The average price target from 15 analysts for CBOE is $225.00 per share, suggesting a potential upside of 0.9% from the last closing price [13] - CBOE has a strong capital management strategy, with $644.5 million remaining under its current share repurchase authorization and a history of increasing dividends for 13 consecutive years [20]

Group 1 - The investor has a contrarian investment style, focusing on high-risk, illiquid options and shares, with a portfolio split of approximately 50%-50% [1] - The investment strategy involves buying stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, especially when insiders are purchasing shares at lower prices [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, their leverage, and to compare financial ratios with sector and industry averages [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, primarily using multicolor lines for support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1] - The investor conducts professional background checks on insiders who purchase shares after sell-offs to ensure credibility [1] - The investment timeframe typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, indicating a medium-term investment horizon [1]

Core Insights - Procter & Gamble's stock has recently fallen below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), indicating a short-term bearish trend, closing at $162.84 on June 10, 2025, below the 50-day SMA of $163.91 [1][10] - The stock also dipped below its 200-day moving average on June 4, 2025, suggesting a potential long-term downward trend [2] Performance Analysis - Over the past three months, Procter & Gamble's shares have declined by 3.3%, underperforming the Zacks Consumer Products – Staples industry's decline of 2.1% and the broader Zacks Consumer Staples sector and S&P 500's growth of 2.3% and 7.1%, respectively [7] - Compared to competitors, Procter & Gamble's performance is weaker, with Unilever, Colgate-Palmolive, and Grocery Outlet seeing gains of 6.9%, 1.2%, and 11.2%, respectively [8] Financial Guidance - Procter & Gamble has revised its fiscal 2025 guidance downward, expecting total sales to be flat year over year and organic sales growth trimmed to 2%, down from a previous range of 2-4% and 3-5% [13] - The company projects EPS growth of 6-8% from last year's $6.02, with core EPS estimated at $6.72-$6.82, indicating a 2-4% growth versus $6.59 reported in fiscal 2024 [14] Market Positioning - Procter & Gamble's stock trades at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 23.27X, which is significantly higher than industry peers like Unilever and Grocery Outlet, which trade at 18.62X and 21.18X, respectively [20][21] - Despite strong fundamentals, the premium valuation limits near-term upside potential, especially in a volatile macro environment [24] Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a comprehensive productivity strategy targeting up to $1.5 billion in gross savings to mitigate rising input costs and protect margins [19] - Procter & Gamble's long-term strategy focuses on innovation, sustainability, and operational discipline to adapt to changing consumer expectations [18]