Core Insights - Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. reported significant growth in net income and revenue for both the fourth quarter and the full year of 2025, with net income increasing by 593.1% year-over-year in Q4 and 107.4% for the full year [1][2][3] Financial Performance - For Q4 2025, net income was $74.4 million, or $7.08 per share, compared to $10.7 million, or $1.04 per share, in Q4 2024, marking a 593.1% increase [1] - Revenue for Q4 2025 reached $472.6 million, up 25.9% from $375.4 million in Q4 2024 [1] - For the full year 2025, net income was $148.4 million, or $14.13 per share, compared to $71.6 million, or $6.91 per share, in 2024, reflecting a 107.4% increase [2] - Total revenue for 2025 was $1.6 billion, a 14.4% increase from $1.4 billion in 2024 [2] Business Segments - The Wealth Management segment reported Q4 2025 revenue of $287.3 million, a 13.3% increase year-over-year, with pre-tax income rising 84.0% to $98.8 million [9] - The Capital Markets segment generated revenue of $182.9 million in Q4 2025, a 53.3% increase compared to the previous year, with pre-tax income of $52.8 million compared to a loss of $5.0 million in Q4 2024 [13] - For the full year 2025, Wealth Management revenue was $1.035 billion, up 6.5% from the prior year, while Capital Markets revenue was $591.3 million, a 32.1% increase [17][22] Market Conditions - The company's performance was bolstered by favorable macroeconomic conditions, including a sustained rise in equity markets and strong corporate earnings, which helped offset concerns about trade tensions and a softening labor market [3][4] - Interest in artificial intelligence platforms contributed to the strength of equity markets, further supporting the company's revenue growth [3] Shareholder Returns - The company declared a special dividend of $1.00 per share in January 2026, totaling $10.5 million, and repurchased 46,292 shares at an average price of $64.36 during the year [5][26][28] Operating Metrics - The company's assets under management (AUM) reached a record $55.2 billion by December 31, 2025, up $5.8 billion from the previous year, primarily due to market appreciation [15][24] - Compensation expenses increased by 6.2% year-over-year, while non-compensation expenses rose by 1.8% due to higher underwriting and technology-related costs [19][20]

Welcome to Investing Insights. I'm your host, Ivana Hampton. Emerging market funds will have a tough act to follow in 2026.The category racked up big gains last year following small returns for years, and a mix of factors like trade tensions prompted many investors to shift their dollars outside the US. Should you add emerging market funds to your portfolio and which ones were winners or losers. Morning Star's senior principal of ratings, Russ Kennel, dug into the data.The editor of the fund investor newsle ...

Group 1 - NIO Inc. has been upgraded by Macquarie from Neutral to Outperform, with a new price target of $6.10, driven by strong sales performance in Q4 2025 [1] - The company reported a 44% quarter-over-quarter volume increase, with sales exceeding the upper end of the forecast of 125,000 units, primarily due to demand for ES8 and Firefly models [1][2] - NIO's Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) initiative now accounts for over 80% of sales, which helps mitigate potential battery cost impacts on the balance sheet [2] Group 2 - In November, NIO shipped 36,275 units, a 10% decrease from October's 40,397 units, but year-to-date deliveries are up 45.6% compared to the same period in 2024, totaling 277,893 vehicles [3] - The company is recognized as a leading manufacturer of smart electric vehicles in China, focusing on premium EVs and developing a battery-swapping ecosystem, autonomous driving, and smart connectivity [3] - Macquarie has increased its price targets for NIO in Hong Kong and the U.S. by 15% and raised its fiscal year 2026 volume prediction by 7% to 451,000 units, citing increased demand for the ES8 model as a key driver [2]

Core Viewpoint - ServiceNow Inc. has experienced significant stock declines due to investor concerns regarding the impact of AI on the software-as-a-service (SaaS) industry, despite reporting strong earnings in the fourth quarter of the previous year [1][2]. Financial Performance - ServiceNow's net income for the fourth quarter increased by 4 percent to $401 million, up from $384 million year-over-year, contributing to a full-year net profit of $1.75 billion, a 23 percent increase from $1.42 billion [3]. - Total revenues rose by 21 percent to $3.57 billion from $2.96 billion, with the full-year revenue reaching $13.3 billion, also a 21 percent increase from $10.98 billion year-over-year, surpassing earlier guidance [4]. - For the first quarter, ServiceNow anticipates subscription revenues between $3.650 billion and $3.655 billion, indicating an implied growth of 21.5 percent year-on-year [4]. - Full-year subscription revenues are projected to be between $15.53 billion and $15.57 billion, reflecting a 20.5 percent to 21 percent increase from 2025 levels [5]. Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment in the software sector remains negative, with concerns about AI advancements creating a challenging environment for SaaS companies that rely on subscription models [2][3].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the US power infrastructure, which is critical for AI deployment and is projected to drive a 2.6% CAGR in US power demand through 2030 [1][8] - The analysis is based on generation capacity data from the EIA, highlighting the importance of parts and labor availability as key drivers for power demand growth [1][8] Capacity Additions - Total capacity additions in 2025 reached approximately 50 GW, representing 80% of the estimates for that year [2][10] - December 2025 saw only 19% of the total yearly capacity added, significantly lower than the average of 38% since 2017 [2][15] - By technology, CCGT (Combined Cycle Gas Turbine) capacity additions exceeded expectations at 165% of estimates, while solar additions were only at 74% of estimates [3][10] Company Highlights - Companies such as Duke Energy (DUK), American Electric Power (AEP), and Xcel Energy (XEL) are highlighted for their leverage to natural gas generation capacity and CCGT new builds [4] - NextEra Energy (NEE) is noted for its significant exposure to renewables, operating the largest portfolio of renewables in the US and planning to double its size by 2027 [8] Labor Market Challenges - The US power industry is projected to require over 500,000 new workers by 2030, with a significant need for skilled labor due to an aging workforce [28][29] - Labor shortages are identified as a key constraint, with competitive labor markets making it difficult to hire effective talent for projects [30][31] Planned Capacity and Delays - The planned capacity pipeline includes 120 GW for solar, 66 GW for energy storage, and 44.8 GW for natural gas, with significant delays reported [37][63][80] - Solar projects face a 36% delay rate, while natural gas projects have improved to a 9.7% delay rate [63][80] - The majority of renewables planned capacity is expected to come online in 2026-2027, while natural gas projects are anticipated to be operational between 2028 and 2030 [9][10] Valuation and Risks - NEE is rated as a Buy with a price target of $98, while AEP, DUK, and XEL also have Buy ratings with respective price targets of $133, $141, and $89 [93][95][96] - Key risks include a slowdown in renewables demand, higher financing costs due to interest rates, and challenges in executing asset sales [93][94][95][96] Conclusion - The US power sector is undergoing significant changes with a shift towards renewables, but faces challenges related to labor availability and project execution. Companies with strong positions in natural gas and renewables are well-positioned for growth despite potential risks.

The Trump administration is preparing to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter. The selection is not final until Trump makes a formal announcement on Friday morning. Warsh's anti-QE stance could reshape the liquidity environment that has supported risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, since 2008. Bloomberg Reports Warsh Pick Warsh, a former Fed governor, visited the White House on Thursday, according to Bloomberg. Markets re ...

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft shares have fallen over 11% due to concerns about capital expenditure (capex) plans, despite exceeding second-quarter earnings estimates [1][36] Group 1: Capital Expenditure and Investor Sentiment - Microsoft’s capex for Q2 reached nearly $38 billion, exceeding street expectations, which has spooked investors [58] - The company is facing capacity constraints and has indicated that Azure revenue could have been significantly higher without these constraints [5][12] - In contrast, Meta's capex plans were initially met with skepticism but have since been positively received following strong quarterly results [2][3] Group 2: Azure Performance and Growth Metrics - Azure's revenue grew by 38% in constant currency, adding approximately $9 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) sequentially, which was a broad-based beat across the portfolio [6][58] - Microsoft has 15 million subscriptions for its M365 co-pilot, which is a relatively small number compared to its overall user base [38][60] - Microsoft Fabric has reached $2 billion in ARR, reflecting a 60% increase since its launch less than two years ago, indicating strong growth potential [15] Group 3: AI Demand and Strategic Positioning - There is unprecedented demand for AI, driven by both model providers and enterprise adoption, which Microsoft is strategically positioned to capitalize on [13][20] - OpenAI contributes significantly to Microsoft’s commercial backlog, representing 45% of the remaining performance obligations (RPO), which is seen as a strength rather than a liability [18][19] - Microsoft’s products are designed to be model-agnostic, allowing flexibility in utilizing various AI technologies, which mitigates dependency on any single provider [20] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The market is currently skeptical about the ability of software companies to navigate the evolving landscape of AI and LLMs, leading to pressure on companies like Salesforce and Microsoft [21][25] - Accelerating growth and demonstrating proof points around AI adoption are critical for companies to regain investor confidence [29][30] - The current market pullback is viewed as a potential buying opportunity for quality names like Microsoft, as long-term growth prospects remain strong [27][33]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The global economy is expected to expand at a reasonable pace in 2026, supported by easing monetary policy, fiscal stimulus, and the ongoing AI boom, although the backdrop remains fragile and volatile due to heightened uncertainty and geopolitical risks [14][20][35]. Section Summaries Section 1: Prospects for the Global Economy in 2026 - The global economy is projected to grow at just over 3% in 2026, with the World Bank forecasting 3.1% and the IMF 3.3% [35][41]. - The US economy is expected to be the strongest performer among major advanced economies, with growth supported by fiscal stimulus and the AI boom, while growth in the UK and euro area is likely to remain sluggish [15][55]. - China is expected to moderate its growth to 4.4%, while India is projected to remain the fastest-growing major economy at 6.5% [19][69]. Section 2: Interview with Former IMF Chief Economist Ken Rogoff - Ken Rogoff describes the global economy as solid but cautions about significant uncertainty not reflected in financial markets, predicting a potential stock market fall in the next three years [20][81]. - He highlights the risks associated with President Trump's policies, particularly regarding trade and immigration, which may have long-term negative consequences for the US economy [84]. Section 3: Key Events in 2026 - Key political events include the US mid-term elections in November, which could impact President Trump's policy maneuverability [21][99]. - Developments in Europe, particularly regarding right-wing populist parties, will also be closely monitored, alongside significant elections in Japan and Brazil [102][107]. Section 4: Three Key Trends to Watch in 2026 - The report identifies three key trends: developments in AI, advanced economy bond markets, and global trade [22]. - The impact of AI on productivity and market sentiment will be crucial, as will the potential for rising government bond yields to negatively affect financial markets [22]. Section 5: Perspectives from Business Leaders - Business leaders express concerns about economic uncertainty and the need for resilience and adaptability in their respective regions [23]. - Wu Chen emphasizes a two-speed global economy, while Mike Fowler highlights the lack of a pro-business agenda in the UK [23]. Ebrima Sawaneh focuses on the importance of decarbonization and digital reliability for African economies [23].

Core Insights - The bank maintained its position as a top 10 SBA 7(a) lender with nearly $580 million in funded originations in 2025 despite industry challenges [1] - The bank's initiatives in banking-as-a-service (BaaS) generated over $1.3 billion in new deposits during 2025, more than tripling the previous year [2] - A strategic sale of approximately $850 million in single-tenant lease financing loans to Blackstone strengthened the bank's capital and improved its rate-risk profile [3] - The company reported strong fourth-quarter results with a 21% increase in quarterly revenue and a 30% year-over-year growth in net interest income for 2025 [4] Financial Performance - Fourth-quarter net income was reported at $5.3 million, or $0.60 per diluted share, with adjusted net income of $5.6 million and adjusted EPS of $0.64 [13] - Adjusted total revenue for the fourth quarter was $42.1 million, reflecting a 21% increase from the same period in 2024 [14] - Non-interest income was $11.8 million, showing growth from the prior year, driven by fintech partnership fee revenue [15] Credit Metrics and Provisions - Credit issues are concentrated in SBA and franchise finance, leading to a higher provision outlook for 2026 of $50 million to $53 million [5][9] - Non-performing loans (NPLs) rose to $58.5 million, with an NPL-to-total loans ratio of 1.56% [16] - The allowance for credit losses (ACL) was 1.49% of total loans, with a small business lending ACL to unguaranteed balances at 7.34% [17] 2026 Outlook - The bank is guiding for net interest income of $30.3 million for 2026, representing a year-over-year increase of about 29% [19] - Loan growth is projected at 15% to 17%, with a net interest margin expected to reach 2.75% to 2.80% by the fourth quarter of 2026 [20] - Management expects gradual improvement in credit quality in the second half of 2026 as problem loans are resolved [9][12]

Core Viewpoint - Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) is recognized as one of the best dividend stocks to consider for February, indicating a positive outlook for income-focused investors [1] Group 1: Stock Upgrade and Valuation - Wolfe Research upgraded Target's stock from Underperform to Peer Perform ahead of the investor day on March 3, citing a wide margin of safety due to the value of its owned real estate [2] - Real estate is estimated to account for approximately 70% to 75% of Target's enterprise value, suggesting significant underlying asset value despite recent estimate cuts [2] Group 2: Board Changes and Leadership - Target appointed two new directors, John Hoke III and Steve Bratspies, to its board as part of a strategy to enhance its merchandising and product mix [3][4] - The board will expand to 15 directors, reflecting the company's efforts to restart growth after three consecutive quarters of declining comparable sales [4] Group 3: Challenges and Investor Pressure - Target faces pressure from activist investor Toms Capital Investment Management, which has raised concerns about weak sales trends and competition with Amazon and Walmart [5] - The company has also received criticism for scaling back diversity, equity, and inclusion policies, which may impact its brand perception [5] Group 4: Company Overview - Target operates as a general merchandise retailer, offering a mix of everyday essentials and fashion-focused products through both physical stores and digital platforms [6]