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农产品日报：苹果客商询价增多，红枣处坐果关键期-20250716

Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 05:22

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the apple and red date industries is neutral [3][7] Core Views - For the apple industry, due to the low remaining inventory at the production areas and the expected new - season output being similar to last year, the apple fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and the short - term price is expected to remain stable. Attention should be paid to the price trend of early - maturing varieties and weather conditions [3] - For the red date industry, as it is at the low point of annual consumption, with high inventory and weak spot trading, and the futures market being sensitive to new - season growth news, caution is needed when going long, and close attention should be paid to the growth of new - season red dates [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract on the previous day was 7,862 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton or 0.31% from the previous day. Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 3.95 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of AP10 + 38, down 24 from the previous day; the price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of AP10 + 1738, down 24 from the previous day [1] - In the apple production areas, trading is mostly demand - based, and buyers are cautious. In some western cold storages, the area of water - rotten apples has expanded, and some holders are eager to sell. Early - maturing apples are mainly from Dali and Yuncheng, with limited supply and little impact on the market. In Shandong, the market is mainly for sales, and the sales volume is still slow after a slight price drop. In the sales areas, the sales volume is average, and there is an impact from summer - cooling fruits [1] Market Analysis - The apple futures price rose the previous day, and the inventory trading in production areas was relatively stable. In western production areas, the number of inquiries from buyers increased. The national main production areas' sales speed last week was similar to the previous week and slower than the same period last year, and the current inventory is at a near - five - year low [2] - In production areas, the late Fuji market was generally stable but weak last week, with light trading. Buyers were cautious, mainly using their own inventory, and the actual trading volume was limited. In Shandong, some holders and farmers were eager to sell, the price of good apples changed little, and the price of ordinary and lower - grade apples dropped slightly but with limited transactions. In Shaanxi, the trading was stable and light, with limited remaining inventory, mainly concentrated in northern Shaanxi. In Gansu, the sales speed slowed down. Shanxi, Henan, and Liaoning production areas were basically cleared of inventory [2] - In the sales areas, the number of trucks arriving at the Guangdong wholesale market last week decreased slightly compared to the previous week. There was an obvious impact from seasonal fruits. With the increase in temperature, the sales of summer - cooling fruits increased, and some spot traders switched to seasonal fruits, affecting the apple market [2] Strategy - The strategy for the apple industry is neutral. Given the low remaining inventory at production areas and the expected new - season output being similar to last year, the short - term price is expected to remain stable. Attention should be paid to the price trend of early - maturing varieties and weather conditions [3] Red Date Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract on the previous day was 10,280 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton or 1.06% from the previous day. Spot: The price of first - grade Hebei grey dates was 8.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CJ01 - 1680, up 110 from the previous day [5] - In the Xinjiang grey date main production areas, jujube farmers are actively managing the orchards, and the trees are in the physiological fruit - dropping stage. There has been no concentrated fruit - dropping, and the temperature is suitable for fruit setting. In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, 5 trucks of dates arrived, and in the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 2 trucks arrived, with buyers purchasing on demand [5] Market Analysis - The red date futures price fell the previous day, reaching a one - month low. The new - season red dates in production areas are at the critical fruit - setting stage. The new - season red dates in main production areas are in the flowering and fruit - setting stage, with different growth in different areas. Due to the large output in 2024, there are potential growth problems in the new season. Some orchards had average first - crop fruit setting, and the market is trading on the expectation of a new - season output reduction. Attention should be paid to the second - and third - crop fruit setting [6] - In the sales areas, the total inventory is at a multi - year high, and it is the traditional off - season. The supply of seasonal fruits is increasing, and the demand for tonics is weak. After the price increase, downstream buyers purchase on demand to replenish safety stocks. The inventory of 36 sample physical warehouses decreased slightly last week [6] Strategy - The strategy for the red date industry is neutral. Given the low consumption period, high inventory, and weak spot trading, and the high sensitivity of the futures market to new - season growth news, caution is needed when going long, and close attention should be paid to the growth of new - season red dates [7]