行业 苹果 日期 2026 年 3 月 2 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 库存与天气成关键变量 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 月度报告 近期研究报告 《你知道目前为止苹果期货有 哪几次修改吗？》2024-03-21 资分析》2024-04-22 告》2024-05-30 动》2024-07-05 《早熟苹果表现良好提振市场》 2024-0 ...

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货苹果月报 冷库陆续复工，行情或宽幅震荡为主 苹果 2026 年 3 月 1 日 主要结论 供应端来看，据卓创资讯，截至 2026 年 2 月 26 日，全国冷库苹果的库存量 约 494.48 万吨，低于去年同期 30.89 万吨，处于近七年历史同期最低水平。分 地区来看，目前山东产地冷库库存量约 208.59 万吨，陕西地区库存量约 128.27 万吨，非主产区冷库库存量约 157.62 万吨。从库存结构来看，好货数量占比偏 低，差货占比较高。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】116 号 需求端来看，据卓创资讯统计，截至 2026 年 2 月 26 日，冷库库存比例约为 37.33%，较去年同期（20250227）低 2.45 个百分点。两周（20260212-0225）全 国冷库库容比下降 2.81 个百分点，去库存率 32.79%。分产区来看，山东地区冷 库库容比为 42.48%，两周冷库库容比降低 1.99 个百分点。节后山东产区冷库成 交情况一般，外贸采购小果订单增加。陕西产区冷库库容比为 33.76%，两周冷 库库容比下降 3.19 个百分点。节后 ...

节后销区苹果到车减少， 水果降价 苹苹苹苹 2026.2.25 作者：魏舒婷 从业资格证号：F03149087 交易咨询证号：Z0022950 研究联系方式：weishuting@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 观点小结 | 苹果 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 震荡 | 今年苹果产量偏低、国内冷库库存低，累计出库不及去年同期。现货价格维持稳定，特别是好货，现货基差较上周走强。 | | | | 销区到车量较节前明显减少，节后水果批发价普遍下降，农业部监测的六种水果中下降最多的是鸭梨、其次苹果，比价 | | | | 仍处于高位区间。后续持续关注销区成交氛围、库内货源出库情况、柑橘类水果交易情况。 | | 价格表现 | 中性 | 本周苹果盘面较节前微跌，现货方面，2月24日，栖霞一、二级80#纸袋4元/斤（与上周持平），洛川70#纸袋4.2元/斤 | | | | （与上周持平），主力合约现货基差-1705元/吨（上周-1835元/吨）。 | | 供应 | 中性偏多 | 2025年我国苹果产量 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.02.06」 苹果市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 关 注 微信服 务 号 业务咨询 添加客服 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：本周苹果期货2605合约价格上涨，周度涨幅0.18%。 行情展望：产区去库继续加快，客商积极处理自存货源。据Mysteel统计，截至 2026年2月4日，全国主产区苹果冷库库存量为619.81万吨，环比上周减少34.25万 吨，去库速度环比加快，高于去年同期。山东产区库容比为47.05%，较上周减少 1.96%，陕西产区库容比为48.82%，较上周减少2.03%，山东产区整体包装发货 尚可，部分前期打包的礼盒陆续发往市场，出货有所加快，果农货成交集中在三 级果、小果等货源，一二级好货零星成交。陕西去库环比略有加快。渭南、咸阳 产区成交较前有所转好，客商打包发运较多，果农货仍以两极货源走货为主。销 区到货车辆较为密集，但市场中转库及地面车辆积压较多。价格来看，果农一般 货源稳中偏弱，优质货源价格维持稳定。长假临近，短期注意风险控制。 未来交易提示： 1、水果价格2、消费 2 目录 1、周度要点小结 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.30」 苹果市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 关 注 微信服 务 号 业务咨询 添加客服 「 周度要点小结」 行情展望：春节备货陆续进入增量阶段，产区来看，走货速度明显加快，甘肃产 区好于其他产区，客商仍以积极发自存货为主。据Mysteel统计，截至2026年1月 28日，全国主产区苹果冷库库存量为654.05万吨，环比上周减少28.73万吨，去库 速度环比加快，略高于去年同期。山东产区库容比为49.01%，较上周减少1.29%， 陕西产区库容比为50.85%，较上周减少1.91%，山东产区整体包装发货增加，部 分前期打包的礼盒陆续发往市场，出货有所加快，果农货成交仍一般。陕西去库 环比略有加快，渭南、咸阳产区成交较前有所转好，客商打包发运较多，果农货 仍以两极货源走货为主。销区市场来看，市场中转库及地面车辆积压较多，礼盒 类货源销售速度一般。价格来看，果农一般质量货源稳中偏弱运行，优质货源价 格稳定。预计备货结束前，苹果价格仍维持震荡偏强运行。 未来交易提示： 1、水果价格2、消费 2 目录 1、周度要点小结 2 ...

苹果产业日报 2026-01-29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) 110 主力合约持仓量:苹果(日,手) 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:苹果(日,手) 1020 | 9642 2430 | 116346 | 16344 | | 现货市场 | 甘肃静宁苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, 山东沂源苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, 0 | 5.25 | 2.4 | 0 | | 元/斤) | 元/斤) 陕西洛川苹果现货价格(纸袋70#以上半 山东烟台栖霞现货价格(纸袋80#以上一 | | | | | | 0 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 商品)(日,元/斤) 全国:苹果产量(年,万吨) 168.34 二级果农货)(日,元/斤) | 5128.51 | | | | 产业情况 | 水果批发价:苹果(周,元/公斤) -0.05 平均批发价:富士苹果(周,元/公斤) | 9.47 | 9.29 | 0.09 | | | 全国苹果冷 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The inventory of apples in cold storage is at a historically low level, providing some support for apple prices. As the Spring Festival stocking season begins, the cold storage shipment volume is gradually increasing, but some traders are slightly cautious. After the futures price soared and then dropped significantly, there is still some support below. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily and wait for the market to stabilize [36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review The main contract of apple futures AP2605 reached a high of 10,019 yuan/ton and then dropped significantly, with a weekly decline of 1.53% [8]. 3.2 Supply - side Situation As of January 15, 2026, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 6.5557 billion tons, and the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 49.78%, 3.55 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The defective rate of low - price apples from fruit farmers is relatively high, and the packaging volume of gift boxes in cold storage this year is lower than that of last year [13]. 3.3 Demand - side Situation - **Cold Storage Shipment Volume**: As of January 15, 2026, the national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.35 percentage points, and the de - stocking rate was 10.90%. The cold - storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 51.37%, with a weekly decrease of 1.17 percentage points, and in Shaanxi it was 47.69%, with a weekly decrease of 1.49 percentage points. With the Spring Festival stocking season, the cold - storage shipment volume is increasing [18]. - **Export Volume**: In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. The export volume recovered in November due to the delayed listing of new - season apples and increased overseas demand near Christmas [20]. - **Alternative Fruit Prices**: No specific analysis content provided. - **Origin Spot Price**: As of January 16, the apple price in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was stable. The intended collection price of Grade 1 and 2 apples over 80 was 3.7 - 4.0 yuan/jin for flaky red apples from fruit farmers, 4.0 - 4.7 yuan/jin for striped apples, and 4.2 - 5.2 yuan/jin for merchant goods. The price of Grade 1, 2, and 3 apples from fruit farmers over 80 was 3.5 - 3.6 yuan/jin, with stable transactions [32].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The apple futures market has dropped from its high level, and the later market drive will gradually shift to the demand side. The export volume is expected to increase in Q1 2026, and some traders will start stocking up for the Spring Festival at the end of December, which will increase the shipping volume. Supported by the decline in the high - quality fruit rate and production, there is still some support below the apple futures market. It is expected that the market will fluctuate within a range, and the operation suggestion is to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy within the range [2][41] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market Review - In December, the main contract of apple futures completed the roll - over, and the position was transferred to AP2605, showing a pattern of high - level decline. The fulfillment of the production reduction expectation and the apple consumption off - season led to a weak performance of the market [6] II. Apple Fundamental Analysis 1. Cold storage inventory is at a historically low level - As of December 25, 2025, the national cold storage apple inventory was about 7.021 billion kilograms, 857.8 million kilograms lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in the same period in the past seven years. Shandong's cold storage inventory was about 2.655 billion kilograms, Shaanxi's was about 1.9664 billion kilograms, and non - main producing areas' was about 2.3996 billion kilograms. Due to the decline in production and quality, the new - season apple storage volume decreased significantly, and there were quality problems such as water rot. It is expected that the supply of high - quality apples will be tight, and the price may be stable or rising, while the price of general - quality apples may decline [10] 2. The festival effect boosts demand, which has slightly improved - As of December 25, 2025, the national cold storage inventory ratio was about 53.31%, 6.35 percentage points lower than the same period last year. From December 18 - 24, 2025, the national cold storage capacity ratio decreased by 0.81 percentage points, the single - week shipment volume increased by 0.27 percentage points compared with the previous week, and the de - stocking rate was 4.58%. Affected by festivals, the shipping volume in Shandong increased, mainly low - quality apples; Shaanxi also traded low - price apples, and some large traders were preparing for the Spring Festival. The shipment in Gansu was okay. With the end of the off - cold - storage apple sales, the cold - storage trading volume increased. It is expected that some traders will start stocking up for the Spring Festival at the end of December, and the shipping volume may increase [16] 3. The import volume of fresh apples decreased month - on - month in November - In November 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 250,000 kilograms, a month - on - month decrease of 18.19% and a year - on - year increase of 48.76%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 11.37 million kilograms, a year - on - year increase of 19.71%. Due to the small proportion of imports in the national production and sufficient fruit supply, it is expected that the import scale will remain at the current level [21] 4. Fresh apples enter the export peak season, and the export volume rebounds - In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121.6 million kilograms, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. The festival effect significantly boosted the export volume. It is expected that the export volume in Q1 2026 will increase month - on - month, which is beneficial to the recovery of apple demand [24][25] 5. The listing of citrus fruits weakens apple demand - Citrus is a major winter fruit, and its listing period is from November to March of the next year. Due to the high yield and low price of citrus, it competes strongly with apples around the Spring Festival. In December, the fruit price increased month - on - month, at the highest level in the past five years. The listing of citrus fruits will have a certain impact on the downstream demand for apples [28][32] 6. Apple consumption seasonality analysis - The months with a high probability of price increase are September, November, and December. September is affected by the completion of inventory clearance, the reduction of seasonal fruits, and the double - festival stocking. November and December are affected by the festival effect and the effective supply of new fruits. The months with a high probability of price decline are April, August, and October. April is affected by the listing of seasonal fruits and the decline in inventory apple quality; August is affected by the impact of seasonal fruits, the listing of early - maturing apples, and the decline in inventory apple quality; October is affected by the large - scale listing of new - season apples and the listing of substitute fruits [34][35] 7. The origin price runs stably, and the transaction of high - quality goods is not prosperous - As of December 26, the apple price in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was stable. The price of 65 - 70 apples from cold - storage farmers was 2.0 - 2.2 yuan per 500 grams, and that of 75 apples from merchants was about 3.0 yuan per 500 grams. The price difference between different apple sources has expanded, and the price difference between large and small fruits may further expand during the cold - storage apple sales period. The long - term futures contracts may remain strong [38] III. Market Outlook - Supply side: As of December 25, 2025, the national cold storage apple inventory was about 7.021 billion kilograms, at a historically low level. Demand side: Affected by festivals, the shipping volume in some areas increased, and large traders in Shaanxi were preparing for the Spring Festival. The market drive will gradually shift to the demand side. The export is expected to increase, and some traders will start stocking up for the Spring Festival at the end of December. Supported by the decline in high - quality fruit rate and production, there is support below the apple futures market, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range [40][41]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View - This week, the price of the Apple Futures 2605 contract increased with a weekly gain of about 0.52%. Apple产区 has seen a slight increase in the number of buyers, but the transaction of fruit farmers' goods is limited. The in - warehouse packaging and shipping have increased. As of December 24, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main production areas in China was 7.4404 billion tons, a decrease of 89,400 tons from last week, with a slower de - stocking speed than the same period last year. The sales area has seen an increase in arrivals. Driven by festivals such as the Winter Solstice and Christmas, the sales have improved slightly compared to the previous period, but there is still pressure on digestion. The short - term price will mainly fluctuate. Future trading should focus on fruit prices and consumption. [4][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - The price of the Apple Futures 2605 contract increased this week, with a weekly gain of about 0.52%. The number of buyers in apple production areas increased slightly, but the transaction of fruit farmers' goods was limited. The cold - storage inventory decreased, but the de - stocking speed was slower than last year. The sales in the sales area improved slightly. The short - term price will mainly fluctuate. Future trading should focus on fruit prices and consumption. [4][6] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The price of the Apple Futures 2605 contract increased this week, with a weekly gain of about 0.52%. As of the end of this week, the net position of the top 20 in apple futures was 4,848 lots, and the number of apple futures warehouse receipts was 0. [6][13] - **Spot Market**: As of December 26, 2025, the mainstream price of fruit farmers' goods of Shandong Yantai Qixia paper - bagged Red Fuji apples above 80 and of the first - and second - grade was 4.0 yuan per catty; the price of Shandong Yiyuan paper - bagged Fuji apples above 75 was 2.60 yuan per catty. [16] 3.3. Industry Situation and Options - **Supply Side**: As of December 24, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main production areas in China was 7.4404 billion tons, a decrease of 89,400 tons from last week, with a slower de - stocking speed than the same period last year. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 52.98%, a decrease of 0.43% from last week, and that in Shaanxi was 56.84%, a decrease of 0.58% from last week. [24] - **Demand Side**: - As of December 25, the average daily number of early - morning arrivals at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong increased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was suspended (represented by 0). - As of December 19, 2025, the average wholesale price of all apple varieties was 9.30 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 yuan per kilogram; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.30 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.17 yuan per kilogram. - As of December 19, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of 5 kinds of fruits was 7.61 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.17 yuan per kilogram. - In October 2025, China's apple export volume was 80,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.29%, and the export value was 779.12 million US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 12.62%. [26][31][35][39] - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money apple options this week is provided, but specific data is not described in text. [40] 3.4. Futures - Stock Correlation - A graph of the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit & Vegetable is presented, but specific analysis is not provided. [42]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the apple futures price showed an overall upward trend with the core driver being continuous unfavorable weather, which led to the downward revision of supply - side expectations. In 2026, whether the apple futures price will continue to rise or fall after reaching a high depends on the weather. The marginal driving force for further upward movement is weakening, and the price is expected to enter a topping stage. The apple 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and the 2610 contract is expected to rise first and then fall [2][3] Summary by Directory Part 1: Long - term Trends and 2025 Market Review 1.1 Futures Market Analysis - **Long - term Trends**: Since the listing of apple futures in 2017, the price has experienced multiple fluctuations, affected by factors such as market understanding, supply - demand situation, weather, and changes in delivery standards [11] - **2025 Trends**: The 2025 apple active contract price showed an obvious upward trend, divided into three main stages. The 01 contract went through four stages: "month - changing and reaching a high - supply - demand stalemate - expectation - driven - reality - realization". The core driver shifted from delivery logic to concerns about the yield and quality of new - season apples [20][24] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: In 2025, the trading volume and turnover of apple futures continued to decline. From January to October, the cumulative trading volume was 20,315,094 lots, a year - on - year decrease of 10.21%, and the cumulative turnover was 1,584.078 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.16%. The open interest was relatively stable from January to September and slightly increased in October [25] 1.2 Spot Market Analysis - In 2025, the domestic apple spot price showed a narrow - range fluctuation pattern with regional differences. In Shandong, the price trend was relatively complex, rising slightly from January to April, remaining stable from May to June, falling slightly from July to August, and rising moderately from September to November. In Shaanxi, the price rose slightly in the first half of the year and showed a stable "high - opening and stable - running" pattern in the second half [34] Part 2: Apple Supply Market Analysis - **This Season's Yield and Premium Fruit Rate**: The yield is expected to be at a low level in the past five years, and the premium fruit rate of some key indicators is lower than that in 2024, mainly due to unfavorable weather during the growth period [37] - **This Season's Peak Inventory Level**: The peak inventory level of apples this season is the lowest in the past five years, which further strengthens the market's expectation of medium - to - long - term supply tightening [45] - **Next Season's Supply Expectation**: Although the upstream profit has been repaired this season, the structural problems in the industry still exist. The supply in the next season is uncertain, and the weather is still the key variable affecting the yield [47] Part 3: Apple Demand Market Analysis - **Population and Disposable Income**: The population growth rate has slowed down in recent years, and the growth rate of per capita disposable income has also converged, resulting in insufficient support for terminal consumption [55] - **Total Fruit Output**: The total fruit output has been increasing continuously, with more supply varieties, longer supply periods of seasonal fruits, and a converging price system, which has continuously squeezed the consumption space of apples [59] - **2024/25 Consumption**: The apple consumption in the 2024/25 fruit season was mediocre, with no significant changes. The consumption in the 2025/26 fruit season is likely to continue the current pattern, and the core driver of consumption depends on the improvement of the overall economic environment and the restoration of consumer confidence [67] Part 4: Apple Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Analysis - In 2025/26, the apple supply - demand expectation shows a slight downward trend. The supply is expected to decrease year - on - year, and the consumption also shows a stable - to - slightly - decreasing trend. The analysis of the supply - demand balance sheet is mainly based on the estimated yield, and it is difficult to guide the price significantly [76] Part 5: Seasonal Analysis - **Spot Price Seasonality**: The average wholesale price of Fuji apples has a relatively large increase probability in February, May - August, and a relatively large decrease probability in March, October - December, which is related to the growth cycle, holidays, and inventory levels of apples [78] - **Futures Price Seasonality**: The apple futures index has a relatively high probability of rising in February and April and a relatively high probability of falling in March, May, and December. Seasonal rules are only for reference [81] Part 6: Apple Market Outlook and Price Forecast - **Supply**: In 2026, the supply this season has tightened significantly, and the supply in the next season has a repair expectation, but it still depends on the weather [87] - **Demand**: The apple consumption in 2026 will continue the dull pattern, lacking driving factors. The consumption is mainly affected by the macro - consumption environment, and the consumption space is continuously squeezed [88] - **Price Forecast**: The apple futures price in 2026 is expected to enter a topping stage. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the high - level range of 8800 - 10500, and the 2610 contract is expected to rise first and then fall in the range of 7500 - 9500. For operation, it is recommended to buy on dips for the 2605 contract and sell on rallies for the 2610 contract [88] Part 7: Apple Options Market Analysis - **Options Market Situation**: Not elaborated in detail in the content - **Options Operation Strategies**: For upstream enterprises, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options to collect premiums; for downstream enterprises, it is recommended to buy at - the - money call options to lock in procurement costs; for speculators, it is recommended to sell a wide - straddle combination strategy [93] Part 8: Related Stock Price Changes - The stock prices of related companies such as Guotou Zhonglu, Honghui Fruit and Vegetable, etc. showed different degrees of changes in 2025. For example, Guotou Zhonglu increased by 52.34%, and Honghui Fruit and Vegetable increased by 106.51% [94]