Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The apple futures main contract AP2605 showed a volatile decline last week, with a significant overall drop. As of the afternoon close on March 27, 2026, the apple 2605 contract was reported at 9967 yuan/ton, down 754 yuan/ton for the week, a decrease of 7.03%. The apple price is supported by low inventory and tight supply of high - quality goods, remaining stable with a slight upward tendency. However, the abundant supply of common goods and large pressure on sales limit the upside potential of the price. The substitution impact of alternative fruits has weakened. It is expected that the apple futures price will maintain a wide - range high - level oscillation in the short term. The market is shifting its focus to the new - season apples, and the weather during the apple flowering period from late March to April is a key variable [6][8][55]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market Review (1) Futures Price - The apple futures main contract AP2605 showed a volatile decline last week, with a significant overall drop. As of the afternoon close on March 27, 2026, the apple 2605 contract was reported at 9967 yuan/ton, down 754 yuan/ton for the week, a decrease of 7.03% [6][12]. (2) Spot Price - **Shandong**: Some merchants in Shandong last week looked for high - quality and cost - effective goods to replenish the market. The demand from export processing decreased slightly. The remaining small fruits were limited, and some began to source 75 fruits. The enthusiasm of fruit farmers for selling common goods was not high, and the overall purchasing by merchants was dull. In Penglai, the mainstream price of 75 first - and second - grade fruit farmers' goods was around 2.8 - 3.6 yuan/jin, 80 first - and second - grade was 3.5 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and third - grade was 1.3 - 2.5 yuan/jin. In Qixia, the price of late - Fuji 80 first - and second - grade slice - red fruit farmers' goods was 3.2 - 4.5 yuan/jin, 75 common goods was 2.2 - 2.5 yuan/jin, and 65 - 70 small fruits was about 2 yuan/jin [17]. - **Shaanxi**: The trading of high - quality goods in Shaanxi slowed down last week. Due to the reduction of cost - effective and suitable goods, a small number of merchants withdrew or transferred. In Yan'an, the trading mainly involved high - quality goods in the hands of fruit farmers and merchants, and the common goods of fruit farmers were not selling well. In Weinan and Xianyang, the overall sales were slow, and the remaining goods in the warehouse were mostly low - quality goods of fruit farmers, which still faced sales pressure. In Luochuan, the mainstream transaction price of 70 and above semi - commercial fruit farmers' goods was around 4.0 - 4.2 yuan/jin, 70 and above common goods was 3.7 - 4 yuan/jin, and high - grade waste was around 2 - 2.2 yuan/jin. The mainstream transaction price of 70 and above merchants' semi - commercial goods was around 4.2 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and 80 and above was 5 - 5.8 yuan/jin, priced according to quality. In Baishui, the price of 75 and above common goods of fruit farmers was 2.5 - 3.0 yuan/jin, and the price of 75 and above high - quality semi - commercial goods of merchants was 4 - 4.3 yuan/jin, priced according to quality [21]. II. Production Area Situation - On March 28, 2026, the apple trading in production areas was dull. Purchasers' enthusiasm was low, and the sales speed was slow. High - quality goods were hard to find in the western production areas, with stable prices. Common and poor - quality goods were traded through bargaining, and the market was in a mess. In Shandong, the overall sales speed was slow. Inventory holders continued to sell their own goods, and the trading volume of fruit farmers' goods was small, especially for medium - quality goods, and the market was under pressure [23]. - **Shandong**: In Qixia, the trading of inventory apples was slow. Purchasers' enthusiasm was low, and merchants replenished goods in small quantities as needed. The market price was stable. The price of inventory paper - bagged Fuji 80 first - and second - grade was 3.50 - 4.50 yuan/jin, the price of inventory 80 and above merchants' third - grade fruit was 1.80 - 2.40 yuan/jin, and the price of inventory Fuji 75 first - and second - grade was about 2.80 yuan/jin. In Yiyuan, the trading of inventory Fuji was weak. There were not many inquiring merchants in the cold storage, and the sales volume was limited. The market price was stable but weak. The price of inventory paper - bagged late - Fuji high - quality common goods of 75 and above was 2.20 - 2.30 yuan/jin, and that of general common goods was 1.60 - 2.00 yuan/jin [23]. - **Shaanxi**: In Luochuan, the trading of inventory Fuji was generally stable. Downstream traders followed the market, and the trading volume was average, with little price change. The current transaction price of inventory paper - bagged late - Fuji 70 and above semi - commercial goods was 4.20 - 4.40 yuan/jin, and the price of 70 and above common goods was 3.50 - 3.70 yuan/jin. In Weinan, the overall sales speed of inventory Fuji was slow. Affected by the quality of goods, the price was a bit chaotic, and transactions were mainly based on quality. The current price of inventory paper - bagged Fuji 75 and above high - quality common goods was 2.20 - 2.80 yuan/jin [24]. - **Shanxi**: In Yuncheng Linyi, the trading of inventory Fuji was light. Market merchants continued to select paper - plus - film goods for purchase, and the sales speed was slow, with stable prices. The current price of inventory film - bagged late - Fuji 75 and above was about 1.50 yuan/jin, and the price of paper - plus - film late - Fuji 80 and above was 2.00 - 2.50 yuan/jin [24]. - **Gansu**: In Jingning, there were not many remaining inventory Fuji. The trading of fruit farmers' goods was basically coming to an end, and transactions were based on quality. The current price of inventory paper - bagged late - Fuji 75 and above fruit farmers' commercial goods in Renda Town was 5.00 - 5.50 yuan/jin, and the price of common goods was 4.00 - 4.60 yuan/jin [24]. III. Inventory Situation - The peak cold - storage entry volume of late - Fuji this season was 7.6675 million tons, the lowest in the past five years. As of March 25, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas nationwide was 4.4179 million tons, a decrease of 266,400 tons compared with last week, and the sales speed slowed down slightly [32]. - **Shandong**: The storage capacity ratio last week was 37.01%, a decrease of 1.38% compared with last week. Some merchants looked for high - quality and cost - effective goods to replenish the market, and the demand from export processing decreased slightly. The remaining small fruits were limited, and some began to source 75 fruits. The enthusiasm of fruit farmers for selling common goods was not high, and the overall purchasing by merchants was dull [32]. - **Shaanxi**: The storage capacity ratio last week was 33.68%, a decrease of 2.57% compared with last week. The trading of high - quality goods slowed down. Due to the reduction of cost - effective and suitable goods, a small number of merchants withdrew or transferred. In Yan'an, the trading mainly involved high - quality goods in the hands of fruit farmers and merchants, and the common goods of fruit farmers were not selling well. In Weinan and Xianyang, the overall sales were slow, and the remaining goods in the warehouse were mostly low - quality goods of fruit farmers, which still faced sales pressure [32]. - **Other Areas**: The storage capacity ratio of Gansu last week was 22.66%, a decrease of 1.82% compared with last week. The trading slowed down. Merchants purchased a small amount of high - quality goods as needed, and fruit farmers' goods were gradually cleared from the warehouse, leaving a small amount of low - quality goods. The storage capacity ratio of Shanxi was 22.76%, a decrease of 1.62% compared with last week. There were not many merchants in the cold storage, and they began to look for paper - plus - film goods, with average overall transactions. The storage capacity ratio of Liaoning was 38.72%, a decrease of 2.94% compared with last week. Merchants actively replenished goods, mainly looking for common goods of fruit farmers, and a small amount of high - quality goods were traded [32][33]. IV. Sales Area Situation - The number of early - morning arrival vehicles at the Guangdong wholesale market last week increased slightly compared with the previous week. Actual transactions were priced according to quality. The current arrival volume of vehicles in the market is at a normal level, and there is no obvious backlog in the transfer warehouse. The willingness of second - and third - level wholesalers to purchase is not high, and the recent market sales are slow, with chaotic selling prices [37]. V. Apple Storage Profit Analysis - The profit of 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants in Qixia last week was about 0.35 yuan/jin, the same as the previous week [42]. VI. Key Fruit Market - As of the 13th week of 2026, the average wholesale price of six kinds of fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 7.86 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg compared with the 12th week. The prices of the six kinds of fruits fluctuated last week. The average wholesale prices of apples and Kyoho grapes increased by 0.04 yuan/kg and 0.33 yuan/kg respectively compared with the 12th week. The average wholesale prices of bananas, pineapples, watermelons, and pears decreased by 0.05 yuan/kg, 0.30 yuan/kg, 0.17 yuan/kg, and 0.01 yuan/kg respectively compared with the 12th week. The average wholesale price of Fuji apples increased compared with last week [46]. VII. Export Situation - According to customs data, the export volume of fresh apples in February 2026 was about 79,100 tons, a decrease of 20.831% compared with the previous month and an increase of 15.91% compared with the same period last year. Seasonally, the fourth quarter and the first quarter of the following year are the peak export seasons for apples. It is expected that the export volume of fresh apples in the first quarter of 2026 will increase compared with the previous quarter [50]. VIII. Production Statistics - In 2025, the domestic apple production was 34.3142 million tons, a decrease of 6.01% compared with last year. The production in Shaanxi was 7.6006 million tons, a decrease of 6.97% compared with 2024; in Shandong, it was 7.246 million tons, a decrease of 16.54%; in Gansu, it was 3.5457 million tons, a decrease of 4.45%; in Henan, it was 2.469 million tons, an increase of 9%; in Shanxi, it was 3.045 million tons, an increase of 11%; in Liaoning, it was 2.1561 million tons, an increase of 3%; and in other areas, it was 8.2518 million tons, a decrease of 6.68% [50][53]. IX. Market Outlook - The apple futures main contract showed a volatile decline last week, with a significant overall drop. From the fundamental perspective, the trading in apple production areas last week slowed down slightly compared with the previous week, and the atmosphere for Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking was average. In terms of production - area transactions, there were limited high - quality goods in the western production areas, and most high - quality goods were in the hands of merchants. The common goods of fruit farmers were not selling well. In Shandong, the export slowed down slightly, and merchants preferred to purchase high - quality goods. In terms of price, the price of high - quality goods remained stable and firm, and the price of common and lower - quality goods was mainly stable. In the sales areas, the overall sales atmosphere was not strong, and second - and third - level wholesalers mainly purchased as needed, with average sales. Overall, the low inventory and tight supply of high - quality goods provide strong support for the apple price, and the apple price is stable with a slight upward tendency. However, due to the abundant supply of common goods and large sales pressure, some fruit farmers even sold at reduced prices, which limited the upside potential of the apple price. In terms of alternative fruits, the supply of pears and citrus fruits gradually decreased after mid - March, and summer seasonal fruits have not been on the market in large quantities, so the substitution impact on apples has weakened. Currently, the market sales are slow, and the atmosphere for Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking is generally average. There are different views on the market after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. Due to the real support of the scarcity of high - quality goods and the expected stocking demand for the Tomb - Sweeping Festival and May Day holidays, the futures price has certain support after the correction. In summary, it is expected that the apple futures price will maintain a wide - range high - level oscillation in the short term. The market is shifting its focus to the new - season apples. The weather from late March to April is a key variable during the apple flowering period, and special attention should be paid to the market speculation sentiment caused by extreme weather such as "late spring cold" in the main producing areas [55][56]. X. Views and Strategies - **This Week's View**: The apple futures main contract may maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. - **Operation Strategies**: - **Unilateral**: Consider buying on dips. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see for the time being. - **Options**: Wait and see for the time being [57][58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the Apple Futures 2605 contract dropped significantly, with a weekly decline of approximately 7.03%. The trading in the apple market has slowed down, and the atmosphere for Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking is average. The short - term apple price may enter a volatile period due to general demand [4][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - The price of the Apple Futures 2605 contract dropped significantly this week, with a weekly decline of about 7.03%. As of March 25, 2026, the inventory in apple cold storage in the main production areas was 4417900 tons, a decrease of 266400 tons from last week. The inventory ratio in Shandong was 37.01%, a decrease of 1.38% from last week, and in Shaanxi it was 33.68%, a decrease of 2.57% from last week. The sales in the consumer market are not strong, and second - and third - level wholesalers mainly purchase goods as needed. Future trading should pay attention to fruit prices and consumption [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - This week, the price of the Apple Futures 2605 contract dropped significantly, with a weekly decline of about 7.03%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in apple futures was 4582 lots, and the number of apple futures warehouse receipts was 0 [8][14]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - As of March 27, 2026, the mainstream price of 80 first - and second - grade fruit farmer goods of bagged red Fuji in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 4.0 yuan per catty; the price of bagged Fuji apples above 75 in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.0 yuan per catty [17]. 3.3 Industry Situation and Options 3.3.1 Industry Chain - **Supply Side**: As of March 25, 2026, the inventory in apple cold storage in the main production areas was 4417900 tons, a decrease of 266400 tons from last week. The inventory ratio in Shandong was 37.01%, a decrease of 1.38% from last week, and in Shaanxi it was 33.68%, a decrease of 2.57% from last week [22]. - **Demand Side** - As of March 26, the average daily early - morning vehicle arrival volume at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong increased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was 0.35 yuan per catty [24]. - As of March 20, 2026, the wholesale price of all - variety apples was 9.42 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 yuan per kilogram; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.41 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 yuan per kilogram [29]. - As of March 20, 2026, the weekly average wholesale price of 5 kinds of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, grapes, pears, and watermelons) was 7.89 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week decrease of 0.10 yuan per kilogram [33]. - According to customs data, in February 2026, China's total fresh apple exports were about 80000 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 15.9% [37]. 3.3.2 Options Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money options of apples this week is presented in the relevant chart, but no specific data is provided [38]. 3.4 Futures - Stock Correlation - The chart shows the price - to - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit & Vegetable Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the Apple Futures 2605 contract rose significantly, with a weekly increase of about 7.23%. The apple market mainly trades high - quality goods. The supply of high - quality goods in the western region is limited, and the transaction of ordinary goods from fruit farmers is slow. As of March 18, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas across the country was 4.6843 million tons, a decrease of 312,900 tons from last week, and the inventory removal speed accelerated. The inventory ratio in Shandong and Shaanxi provinces decreased. In the sales area, the overall sales atmosphere is not strong, and the number of incoming trucks is at a normal level. High - quality goods are relatively scarce, and prices are firm. The main contract is approaching delivery, so it is expected that the apple futures price will maintain an upward trend, but attention should be paid to the demand situation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - The price of the Apple Futures 2605 contract rose significantly this week, with a weekly increase of about 7.23%. The apple market mainly trades high - quality goods. The supply of high - quality goods in the western region is limited, and the transaction of ordinary goods from fruit farmers is slow. As of March 18, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas across the country was 4.6843 million tons, a decrease of 312,900 tons from last week, and the inventory removal speed accelerated. The inventory ratio in Shandong and Shaanxi provinces decreased. In the sales area, the overall sales atmosphere is not strong, and the number of incoming trucks is at a normal level. High - quality goods are relatively scarce, and prices are firm. The main contract is approaching delivery, so it is expected that the apple futures price will maintain an upward trend, but attention should be paid to the demand situation [4]. - Future trading tips include fruit prices and consumption [5]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - The price of the Apple Futures 2605 contract rose significantly this week, with a weekly increase of about 7.23% [9]. - As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in apple futures was 12,736 lots, and the number of apple futures warehouse receipts was 0 [16]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - As of March 20, 2026, the mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit - farmer goods of bagged Red Fuji in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 4.0 yuan per catty; the price of bagged Fuji apples of 75 and above in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.20 yuan per catty [19]. 3.3. Industry Situation and Options 3.3.1. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: As of March 18, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas across the country was 4.6843 million tons, a decrease of 312,900 tons from last week, and the inventory removal speed accelerated. The inventory ratio in Shandong was 38.39%, a decrease of 1.66% from last week, and the inventory ratio in Shaanxi was 36.25%, a decrease of 2.96% from last week [24]. - **Demand Side**: - As of March 19, the average daily number of incoming trucks in the morning at the main apple wholesale markets in Guangdong increased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was 0.35 yuan per catty [26]. - As of March 13, 2026, the wholesale price of all varieties of apples was 9.37 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.11 yuan per kilogram from last week; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.52 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 0.15 yuan per kilogram from last week [31]. - As of March 13, 2026, the weekly average wholesale price of 5 kinds of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, grapes, pears, and watermelons) was 7.99 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 0.02 yuan per kilogram from last week [35]. - According to customs data, in December 2025, China's fresh apple exports totaled about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.625% and a year - on - year increase of 28%. The export value was 162,842,207 US dollars [39]. 3.3.2. Options Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money options for apples this week is presented in the apple options implied volatility chart [40]. 3.4. Futures - Stock Correlation - The price - to - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit & Vegetable is presented in the relevant chart [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Apple Futures 2605 contract rose first and then fell, with a weekly decline of approximately 3.08%. The inventory removal speed has accelerated, but the sales in the consumer market have slowed down. Due to the influence of low inventory, low high - quality fruit rate, and delivery logic, the price of the short - term Apple main contract will fluctuate more significantly, and risk control should be noted [4][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Week - by - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the price of the Apple Futures 2605 contract rose first and then fell, with a weekly decline of about 3.08% [4][8] - **Market Outlook**: The inventory removal in production areas varies, generally stronger in the west and weaker in the east. As of March 4, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main production areas of the country was 5.2753 billion tons, a decrease of 253,900 tons from the previous week. The inventory removal speed has accelerated. In Shandong, the storage capacity ratio is 41.561%, a decrease of 1.45% from the previous week; in Shaanxi, the storage capacity ratio is 41.75%, a decrease of 2.13% from the previous week. In the consumer market, after the Spring Festival, the sales are stable, the market arrival volume is low, and the sales speed has slowed down. Due to the influence of low inventory, low high - quality fruit rate, and delivery logic, the price of the short - term Apple main contract will fluctuate more significantly, and risk control should be noted [4] - **Future Trading Tips**: Fruit prices and consumption [4] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - This week, the price of the Apple Futures 2605 contract rose first and then fell, with a weekly decline of about 3.08%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in Apple Futures is 5,540 lots, and the number of Apple Futures warehouse receipts is 0 [8][14] 3.2.2. Spot Market - As of March 13, 2026, the mainstream price of farmer - produced bagged Red Fuji apples (above 80) in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong is 3.7 yuan per catty; the price of bagged Fuji apples (above 75) in Yiyuan, Shandong is 2.40 yuan per catty [17] 3.3. Industrial Situation and Options 3.3.1. Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: As of March 11, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main production areas of the country was 4.9972 billion tons, a decrease of 278,200 tons from the previous week. The inventory removal speed has accelerated. In Shandong, the storage capacity ratio is 40.05%, a decrease of 1.51% from the previous week; in Shaanxi, the storage capacity ratio is 39.21%, a decrease of 2.54% from the previous week [22] - **Demand Side** - As of March 12, the average daily early - morning vehicle arrival volume at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong has increased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants is 0.35 yuan per catty [26] - As of March 6, 2026, the average wholesale price of all apple varieties is 9.51 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 yuan per kilogram; the wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.37 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 yuan per kilogram [31] - As of March 6, 2026, the weekly average wholesale price of 5 kinds of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, grapes, pears, and watermelons) is 7.97 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 yuan per kilogram [35] - According to customs data, in December 2025, the total export of fresh apples in China was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.625% and a year - on - year increase of 28%. The export value was 162,842,207 US dollars [39] 3.3.2. Options Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money options for apples this week is presented in the relevant chart [40] 3.4. Futures - Stock Correlation - The price - to - earnings ratio chart of Honghui Fruit and Vegetable is presented, but no specific analysis is provided [42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The good-quality apples in the producing areas remain stable and firm, while the general-quality apples from farmers are slightly weak. Merchants have a strong willingness to purchase good-quality apples. It is expected that the trading of good-quality apples in the western region will be active in the short term, and the overall price will remain stable, continuing the polarization trend [2]. - The shipment situation in the producing areas varies, with the western region being stronger than the eastern region. As of March 4, 2026, the inventory of apple cold storages in the main producing areas across the country was 527.53 tons, a decrease of 25.39 tons compared to the previous week, and the inventory removal speed has accelerated [2]. - In the sales areas, the post - festival market sales are stable, the market arrival volume is low, and the shipment has slowed down. However, due to the influence of low inventory, low high - quality fruit rate, and delivery logic, the price of the short - term apple main contract fluctuates more violently [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 10,236 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67 yuan; the position of the main contract is 115,949 lots, an increase of 3,378 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 9,211 lots, a decrease of 12 lots [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin, with no change; the spot price in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.4 yuan/jin, with no change; the spot price in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70) is 4.2 yuan/jin, with no change; the spot price in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80) is 3.7 yuan/jin, with no change [2]. Upstream Situation - The annual apple output in the country is 5,128.51 tons; the weekly apple wholesale price is 168.34 yuan/kg; the national apple orchard area is 1,955.77 thousand hectares, a decrease of 19.58 thousand hectares; the average weekly wholesale price of Fuji apples is 0.09 yuan/kg [2]. Industry Situation - The total inventory of national apple cold storages is 527.53 tons, a decrease of 25.39 tons; the storage capacity ratio of Shandong apples is 41.561%, a decrease of 1.45%; the storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 41.75%, a decrease of 2.13%; the monthly apple export volume is 160,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons; the monthly year - on - year export amount is 30.7%, an increase of 14.5%; the monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1,775,355 US dollars, an increase of 657,409 US dollars; the weekly profit of storage merchants for first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples is 0.3 yuan/jin, with no change [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale price of pears is 6.67 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 6.75 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.13 yuan; the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 6.52 yuan/kg, with no change; the average daily early - morning arrival volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 9.6 vehicles, a decrease of 2.65 vehicles; the average daily early - morning arrival volume at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 12.4 vehicles, a decrease of 2.85 vehicles; the average daily early - morning arrival volume at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 18.4 vehicles, a decrease of 4.85 vehicles [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 36.26%, a decrease of 2.25%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 36.26%, a decrease of 2.3% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the Apple Futures 2605 contract soared, with a weekly increase of approximately 5.70%. The inventory removal speed has accelerated. However, due to factors such as low inventory, low high - quality fruit rate, and delivery logic, the price of the short - term Apple Futures main contract will fluctuate more significantly, and risk control should be noted [4][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the price of the Apple Futures 2605 contract soared, with a weekly increase of about 5.70% [4][8] - **Market Outlook**: The sales situation in production areas varies, generally stronger in the west and weaker in the east. As of March 4, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main production areas across the country was 5.2753 billion tons, a decrease of 253,900 tons from last week. The inventory removal speed has accelerated. In the Shandong production area, the storage capacity ratio was 41.561%, a decrease of 1.45% from last week; in the Shaanxi production area, the storage capacity ratio was 41.75%, a decrease of 2.13% from last week. In the Shandong production area, the number of merchants inspecting goods in cold storage was acceptable, and merchants replenished their supplies as needed. In the Shaanxi production area, the number of merchants increased. In the sales area, the post - holiday market sales were stable, the market arrival volume was low, and the sales pace slowed down [4] - **Future Trading Tips**: Fruit prices and consumption [4] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: This week, the price of the Apple Futures 2605 contract soared, with a weekly increase of about 5.70%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in Apple Futures was 14,058 lots, and the number of Apple Futures warehouse receipts was 0 [8][14] - **Spot Market**: As of March 6, 2026, the mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade farmer - sourced bagged Red Fuji apples in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 3.7 yuan per catty; the price of 75 and above bagged Fuji apples in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.40 yuan per catty [18] 3.3 Industry Situation and Options - **Supply Side**: As of March 4, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main production areas across the country was 5.2753 billion tons, a decrease of 253,900 tons from last week. The inventory removal speed has accelerated. In the Shandong production area, the storage capacity ratio was 41.561%, a decrease of 1.45% from last week; in the Shaanxi production area, the storage capacity ratio was 41.75%, a decrease of 2.13% from last week [23] - **Demand Side**: - As of March 5, the average daily early - morning vehicle arrival volume at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong decreased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was 0.3 yuan per catty [27] - As of February 27, 2026, the average wholesale price of all apple varieties was 9.42 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12 yuan per kilogram; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.36 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.06 yuan per kilogram [32] - As of February 27, 2026, the weekly average wholesale price of 5 types of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, grapes, pears, and watermelons) was 8.04 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.24 yuan per kilogram [36] - In December 2025, China's fresh apple exports totaled approximately 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.625% and a year - on - year increase of 28%. The export value was 162,842,207 US dollars [40] - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money Apple options this week is presented in the form of a chart, but specific data is not provided [41] 3.4 Futures - Stock Correlation - Information about the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit & Vegetable Co., Ltd. is presented in the form of a chart, but specific data is not provided [43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - As of March 4, 2026, the inventory of apple cold storage in the main producing areas across the country was 527530 tons, a decrease of 25390 tons from the previous week, and the de - stocking speed accelerated. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 41.561%, a decrease of 1.45% from the previous week, and that in Shaanxi was 41.75%, a decrease of 2.13% from the previous week [2]. - The transaction of good and poor apples in the producing areas is significantly differentiated. Good apples maintain a stable and firm price, while the general supply of fruit farmers is slightly weak. Merchants replenish goods as needed. It is expected that the transaction of good apples in the western region will be active in the short term, the overall price will be stable, and the polarization trend will continue [2]. - After the Spring Festival in Shandong, merchants replenish goods as needed, and the atmosphere of replenishment is average. Some fruit farmers are willing to lower prices. In Shaanxi, the number of replenishing merchants is small, and the in - warehouse transaction is a bit cold. The transfer of fruit farmers' goods is mainly low - price general goods, and the trading heat in Shaanxi is slightly lower than that of last year [2]. - As the delivery of the May contract is approaching, the market is worried about having no goods for delivery, and the warehouse receipt cost is high, forming strong support. The price of the short - term apple main contract fluctuates more violently [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main apple futures contract was 10753 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 304 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 147164 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 279 lots; the net purchase volume of the top 20 futures positions was 17021 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 1345 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged above 75) was 5.25 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged above 75) was 2.4 yuan/jin; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged above 70 semi - commercial) was 4.2 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged above 80 first - grade) was 3.7 yuan/jin, all with no week - on - week change [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The annual apple output in the country was 51285100 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1683400 tons; the apple orchard area in the country was 1955770 hectares, with a year - on - year decrease of 19580 hectares; the weekly fruit wholesale price of apples was 9.42 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.36 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg [2]. - The total inventory of national apple cold storage was 527530 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 25390 tons; the storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 0.42, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01; the storage capacity ratio in Shaanxi was 0.42, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.02; the monthly apple export volume was 160000 tons, with an increase of 40000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The year - on - year monthly export amount of apples increased by 30.7%, with a week - on - week increase of 14.5 percentage points; the monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts was 17753550000 US dollars, with an increase of 6574090000 US dollars; the weekly profit of storage merchants for first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples was 0.3 yuan/jin, with no week - on - week change [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly fruit wholesale price of pears was 6.69 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg; the price of watermelons was 6.88 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.24 yuan/kg; the price of bananas was 6.52 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.07 yuan/kg [2]. - The average daily number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Jiangmen wholesale market in Guangdong was 12.25, with a week - on - week decrease of 17.95; at the Xiaqiao wholesale market in Guangdong was 15.25, with a week - on - week decrease of 21.75; at the Chalong wholesale market in Guangdong was 23.25, with a week - on - week decrease of 31.95 [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples was 35.67%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.91 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples was 35.67%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.96 percentage points [2].

Group 1: Report Information - Report industry: Apple [1] - Report date: March 2, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoint - The apple market shows a polarization in the sales of high - quality and low - quality goods. High - quality goods are in short supply and may still see price increases, while low - quality goods face pressure to reduce prices for sales volume. Attention should be paid to the circulation of medium - and low - grade goods in the market. The near - month contracts mainly focus on the warehouse receipt cost logic. Due to the firm price of high - quality fruits, the AP2605 contract will mainly fluctuate at a high level, and the willingness of buyers to take delivery directly affects the final trend of the market. The new - season contracts are speculated on weather in advance and should be treated with a bullish mindset [8][23] Group 3: Market Review - In February, the main contract of apple futures, AP605, showed a high - level oscillating trend, fluctuating in the range of 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton. As of the close on February 27, AP605 closed at 9,760 yuan/ton, down 0.76% slightly, with a position of about 129,000 lots. The near - month contract AP603 fluctuated sharply on the last trading day before the delivery month, with the futures price dropping from a high of 9,470 yuan/ton to a minimum of 8,540 yuan/ton. The futures long - position holders seemed to give up taking delivery, with an intraday reduction of 177 lots, and only 34 lots entered the delivery month. The far - month contracts remained strong [10] Group 4: Factor Analysis 4.1 Inventory Apple Sales Polarization - In February, during the Spring Festival consumption peak, the mainstream transaction prices of cold - storage apples were stable with a slight increase. There were large differences among different production areas. High - quality western production areas had smooth sales and strong prices, while some secondary production areas in Shandong had uneven product quality, with relatively light trading and slightly weak prices. The mainstream transaction prices in Gansu increased slightly due to the shortage of high - quality goods. The sales volume in Shaanxi was large during the Spring Festival, and the prices were stable. The overall trading volume in Shandong was average [12] - The apple market continues to be polarized. Merchants prefer high - quality goods over general farmer - produced goods, and the overall trading atmosphere is still average. Merchants in Gansu have a certain enthusiasm for restocking, while the transactions in Shandong and Shaanxi are relatively average. Low - quality goods face pressure to reduce prices for sales volume [13] 4.2 Slow Apple Out - of - Warehouse Rhythm in Main Production Areas - This year's apple storage volume is lower than last year, about 700 - 800 million tons, second only to 2018. The commodity rate and quality have declined significantly, with farmers accounting for about 60%. High - quality goods are mainly in the hands of merchants. After the Spring Festival, the overall out - of - warehouse progress is good compared with previous years but slower than last year. High - quality goods are in short supply, and the polarization between high - and low - quality goods is likely to continue. The sales situation of inventory from March to April directly affects the willingness of buyers to take delivery in subsequent contracts [16] 4.3 Increased Impact of Delivery Rules on Prices - Near - month contracts are mainly based on delivery logic. There is always a game between the value of buyers taking delivery and the cost of sellers' warehouse receipts. The trend of near - month contracts depends more on delivery factors. In 2025, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange revised the "Detailed Rules for Fresh Apple Futures Business", which has had a continuous impact on the futures - spot price system. In the year of "general production reduction + serious decline in high - quality fruit rate" like 2025/26, high - quality goods meeting the futures delivery standards are scarcer, and the cost of apple futures warehouse receipts has increased significantly, directly supporting the contract valuation [19] 4.4 Supply - Side Weather Speculation - Entering the end of March, it is the flowering period of new - season apples, and the market focuses on supply - side weather speculation again. According to the forecast of the National Climate Center, it is expected that in spring (March - May) this year, except for the western part of Guangxi, the southeastern part of Yunnan, and the southwestern part of Guizhou, where the temperature is 0.5 - 1°C lower than the same period of the previous year, the temperature in most other parts of the country is close to or higher than the same period of the previous year. In the past 10 days (from February 20 to March 1), the average temperature in most parts of the country was 2 - 4°C higher than the same period of the previous year, and in some areas such as the northwest, the western part of North China, the southern part of Northeast China, the Sichuan Basin, and Guizhou, it was 5 - 7°C higher. The high temperature in the main production areas in spring 2026 may cause the phenological period of apples to be slightly advanced. An earlier flowering period means a corresponding change in the risk window of late frosts, and it is necessary to strengthen the monitoring and early warning of frost damage during the flowering period. "Cold snaps in a warm winter" are the most important meteorological risks to be guarded against in 2026 [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The apple futures are expected to show a wide - range oscillation in the future, and the recommended operation is to sell high and buy low within the range. This is because the supply of high - quality apples is tight due to the decline in the excellent fruit rate, providing strong support at the bottom, while the demand is restricted, limiting the upward momentum [2][44]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - In February 2026, the main contract AP2605 of apple futures showed a strong - running and high - level oscillation. The postponed Spring Festival increased the stocking time, boosting the market during the festival. However, the postponed Spring Festival also narrowed the later sales window, causing the market to fall sharply after the festival. The limited quantity of high - quality apples provided some support and narrowed the decline [7]. 3.2 Apple Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Tight Supply of High - quality Apples - As of February 26, 2026, the national cold - storage apple inventory was about 4.9448 million tons, 308,900 tons lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in the same period in the past seven years. Shandong had about 2.0859 million tons, Shaanxi about 1.2827 million tons, and non - main producing areas about 1.5762 million tons. The proportion of high - quality apples was low, and that of poor - quality apples was high. After the festival, cold - storage in Shandong and Shaanxi resumed packaging, and in Gansu, high - quality apples were sold well before the festival, with a slight price increase [11]. 3.2.2 Cold - storage Resumed Operation after the Festival with Good Sales Speed - As of February 26, 2026, the cold - storage inventory ratio was about 37.33%, 2.45 percentage points lower than the same period last year. From February 12 - 25, 2026, the national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 2.81 percentage points, and the de - stocking rate was 32.79%. In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 42.48%, decreasing by 1.99 percentage points in two weeks, with general transactions and more small - fruit orders from foreign trade. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 33.76%, decreasing by 3.19 percentage points in two weeks, with limited transactions due to the shortage of high - quality apples. In Gansu, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 31.68%, decreasing by 3.83 percentage points in two weeks, with high purchasing enthusiasm for high - quality apples [17]. 3.2.3 Increase in Fresh Apple Imports in December - China's fresh apple imports are mainly from countries like New Zealand, the United States, and Chile. In December 2025, the import volume was 0.31 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.31% and a year - on - year increase of 20.02%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import volume was 116,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.72%. Due to the decline in the new - season apple production and quality, the import demand is expected to increase, but the import scale is expected to remain at the current level as the annual import volume accounts for less than 1% of the national production [20]. 3.2.4 Peak Season for Apple Exports with Rising Export Volume - China's fresh apples are mainly exported to Southeast Asian countries. In December 2025, the export volume was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. The fourth quarter and the first quarter of the next year are the peak seasons for apple exports. It is expected that the export volume in the first quarter of 2026 will increase quarter - on - quarter, which is beneficial to the recovery of apple demand [25]. 3.2.5 Citrus Season Affects Apple Demand - In recent years, the overall fruit harvest and imported fruits have increased market choices. Citrus, which is on the market from November to March, competes with apples during the Spring Festival. The large supply and low price of citrus impact the downstream demand for apples. In February, fruit prices were at a high level, and the large supply of alternative fruits like citrus at low prices affected the terminal consumption demand for apples [27][30]. 3.2.6 Seasonal Analysis of Apple Consumption - Apple prices have obvious seasonality. The months with a high probability of price increase are September, November, and December. September is affected by the end of inventory clearance, the reduction of seasonal fruits, and festival stocking. November and December are driven by new - fruit supply and festival effects. The months with a high probability of price decline are April, August, and October. April is affected by the listing of seasonal fruits and the decline in inventory apple quality. August faces challenges such as the impact of seasonal fruits, the listing of early - maturing apples, and the decline in inventory apple quality. October is affected by the large - scale listing of new - season apples and the similar listing period of pears [36][37][38]. 3.2.7 Price Differentiation of Apples with Different Qualities - As of February 26, 2026, in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong, the price of high - quality apples was stable, with different price ranges for different grades. Due to the decline in production and quality, the price of high - quality apples remained high, while the price of low - quality apples declined. The price difference between large and small fruits may further widen during the cold - storage sales stage, and the far - month futures contracts may remain strong [41]. 3.3 Future Outlook - On the supply side, as of February 26, 2026, the national cold - storage apple inventory was about 4.9448 million tons, lower than the same period last year, with a low proportion of high - quality apples. On the demand side, the cold - storage inventory ratio was lower than the same period last year, and the de - stocking rate was 32.79%. Different - quality apple markets showed obvious differentiation. The cold - storage resumed operation earlier than usual but later than last year. The shortage of high - quality apples due to the decline in the excellent fruit rate led to high purchasing enthusiasm, while the high proportion of poor - quality apples faced a narrowing sales window. Limited by demand, the upward momentum is limited, but strong support exists at the bottom due to the excellent fruit rate problem. The apple futures are expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to sell high and buy low within the range [43][44].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall view on apples is "oscillating". This year, apple production is low, domestic cold - storage inventory is low, and the cumulative outbound volume is less than the same period last year. Spot prices remain stable, especially for high - quality goods, and the spot basis has strengthened compared to last week. The number of arriving trucks in the sales area has significantly decreased compared to before the festival, and fruit wholesale prices have generally declined after the festival. Among the six fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture, Ya pears have the largest decline, followed by apples, and the price ratio is still in a high - level range. Continued attention should be paid to the trading atmosphere in the sales area, the outbound situation of goods in the warehouse, and the trading situation of citrus fruits [3] Summary by Directory Price Performance - Apple futures: On February 24, AP2605 closed at 9705 yuan/ton (down 1.3% from before the festival), and AP2610 closed at 8425 yuan/ton (down 0.5% from before the festival) [8] - Apple spot prices in Shandong: In the Shandong production area, the overall shipment volume was still large during the week. The mainstream price of 75 first and second - grade fruit farmer goods in Penglai was around 2.8 - 3.6 yuan/jin (unchanged from last week), 80 first and second - grade fruit farmer goods were 3.5 - 4.5 yuan/jin (last week: 3.2 - 4.5 yuan/jin), and third - grade fruits were 1.3 - 2.5 yuan/jin (unchanged from last week). In Qixia, 80 first - and second - grade slice - red fruit farmer goods were 3.2 - 4.5 yuan/jin (unchanged from last week), 75 fruit farmer general goods were 2.2 - 2.5 yuan/jin (unchanged from last week), and 65 - 70 small fruits were 1.7 - 2 yuan/jin (unchanged from last week) [7] - Apple spot prices in Shaanxi: In Luochuan, Shaanxi, the ex - warehouse price of semi - commercial fruits above 70 from fruit farmers is around 4.0 - 4.3 yuan/jin, general goods above 70 from fruit farmers are around 3.5 - 4 yuan/jin, and high - grade secondary fruits are around 2.2 yuan/jin. Prices are stable compared to last week [7] - Apple basis and monthly spread: The spot basis of the main contract was - 1705 yuan/ton (last week: - 1835 yuan/ton) [3] Supply: Production and Cold - Storage Inventory - Cold - storage inventory: As of the week of February 13, the apple cold - storage inventory in the country's major production areas was 5.88 million tons (a decrease of 320,000 tons from the previous week); Shandong had 2.1 million tons (a decrease of 90,000 tons from the previous week), and Shaanxi had 1.73 million tons (a decrease of 80,000 tons from the previous week) [15] - Planting area and production: In 2025, China's apple planting area was 1.74484 million hectares (a year - on - year increase of 0.2%), and apple production was 34.3132 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 6%) [19] Demand: Cold - Storage Outbound Volume and Substitute Situation - Apple cold - storage outbound volume: As of the week of February 13, the national apple cold - storage outbound volume was 316,500 tons (last week: 342,500 tons), and the cumulative outbound volume in the 2025/26 season was 1.9456 million tons (compared to 2.2152 million tons in the same period last year); the cold - storage outbound volume of apples in Shaanxi and Shandong was 169,000 tons (last week: 166,300 tons), and the cumulative outbound volume in the 2025/26 season was 981,600 tons (compared to 972,900 tons in the same period last year) [24] - Apple arrivals in the South China market: After the festival, the apple arrivals in the South China market decreased compared to before the festival. On February 24, 9, 5, and 7 trucks arrived at Chalong, Jiangmen, and Xiaqiao respectively [26] - Wholesale prices of six fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture: In the week of February 27, the wholesale price of Kyoho grapes was 12.48 yuan/kg (a week - on - week decrease of 0.6%), Fuji apples were 9.13 yuan/kg (a week - on - week decrease of 3.6%), bananas were 6.26 yuan/kg (a week - on - week decrease of 1.3%), Ya pears were 5.48 yuan/kg (a week - on - week decrease of 4.7%), watermelons were 6.88 yuan/kg (a week - on - week decrease of 1.4%), and pineapples were 7.35 yuan/kg (a week - on - week decrease of 1.7%) [36] - Fruit price ratio: In the week of February 27, the price ratio of apples to bananas was 1.46 (last week: 1.49), the price ratio of apples to Ya pears was 1.67 (last week: 1.65), and it was still in a high - level range. The price ratio of apples to citrus was 1.52 [39] Apple Import and Export - In 2025, China's cumulative apple imports were 116,750 tons, cumulative exports were 962,053 tons, and the net export volume was 845,300 tons (in 2024, the net export volume was 883,400 tons). China's main exported variety is Red Fuji, and the traditional export markets are Southeast Asian countries. In addition, Russia, Bangladesh, and some European countries are also important export destinations [43]