国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货苹果月报 高位回落，下方仍有一定支撑 苹果 2025 年 12 月 28 日 主要结论 供应端来看，据卓创资讯，截至 2025 年 12 月 25 日，全国冷库苹果的库存 量约 702.1 万吨，低于去年同期 85.78 万吨，处于近七年历史同期最低水平。分 地区来看，目前山东产地冷库库存量约 265.5 万吨，陕西地区库存量约 196.64 万吨，非主产区冷库库存量约 239.96 万吨。 需求端来看，圣诞节、元旦等节日效应提振，山东产区冷库发货量比之前提 高，但主要出货的为贴字果、三级果及次果等质量欠佳货源，大果、高价货成交 量偏少。陕西产区冷库同样交易低价货源，近期有大型贸易商为春节备货做准备。 甘肃产区客商数量较多，出货情况尚可。随着库外货源销售接近尾声，冷库交易 量增加。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】116 号 减产预期兑现，叠加苹果消费淡季，盘面高位回落。后期行情驱动逐渐转至 需求端。因为前期包装的外贸订单货源需要赶在圣诞节前抵达目的地，近期出口 表现良好。一般情况下，一季度是苹果的出口旺季，预计出口量保持增长态势， 利好下游需求恢复。此外， ...

业务咨询 添加客服 「 周度要点小结」 苹果市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 关 注 微信服 务 号 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.26」 图、苹果主力合约价格走势 行情回顾：本周苹果期货2605合约价格上涨，周度涨幅约0.52%。 行情展望：苹果产区寻货客商略有增多，果农货成交有限，库内包装及发货有所 增加。据Mysteel统计，截至2025年12月24日，全国主产区苹果冷库库存量为 744.04万吨，较上周减少8.94万吨，去库速度低于去年同期。山东产区库容比为 52.98%，较上周减少0.43%，陕西产区库容比为56.84%，较上周减少0.58%，山 东产区冷库走货速度不快，主要成交仍以外贸渠道寻货为主，整体发货量较上周 略有增加。陕西成交清淡，目前客商包装自存货源补充市场，果农货多以两极货 源少量出库为主，果农一般统货成交零星，洛川部分乡镇果农统货价格有所松动， 后续关注节日备货节奏。销区市场到货增加，冬至及圣诞等节日带动下，走货较 前期小幅好转，但消化仍有压力，车厘子、柑橘等水果占据市场热度，短期价格 将震荡运行为主。 2 未来交易提 ...

苹果市场2026年年报 苹果：万树垂珠摇欲坠，一朝风起散作尘 ——2025年苹果市场回顾与2026年展望 方正中期期货研究院 农产品团队 侯芝芳 Z0014216 摘要： 2025年苹果期价走势大致可以分为两段，上半年以区间震荡为主，下半年为趋势 性上涨。年度上涨行情主要集中在下半年。本轮上涨的核心驱动是天气因素的持续不 利，导致供应端预期被不断向下修正。具体来看，产区不利天气贯穿了苹果生长的关 键时期：花期部分主产区遭遇降温、大风；生长期又出现阶段性持续干旱；进入收获 期后，部分产区再度迎来持续阴雨天气。多重不利天气的叠加效应，使得供应端矛盾 逐步凸显并加剧。最终，产量、优果率下降、入库量都是预期下沿兑现，推动了苹果 期价的此轮上涨行情。 风险提示：交割博弈变化导致多头情绪退潮、产区再度出现超预期的不利天气。 | 第一部分 长期走势与2025年行情回顾 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 一、期货市场走势分析 3 | | | （一) 长期走势分析 3 | | | （二）2025年走势分析 | 6 | | （三）期货成交与持仓情况 7 | | | 二、现货市场走势分析 8 | | | 第二部分 苹果供 ...

研究所 主力合约移仓换月，盘面延续高位震荡 ——国信期货苹果周报 2025年12月5日 4 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 研究所 1 本周行情回顾 2 供给端情况 3 需求端情况 研究所 第 P 一 a 部 r 分 t1 本周行情回顾 一、行情回顾 研究所 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 r 分 t2 供给端情况 供给端：库存量低于去年同期水平 研究所 Ø 据卓创资讯，截至2025年12月4日，全国冷库苹果库存量为724.38万吨，冷库库存比例约为55.00%，较去年同期（20241205 ）低7.68个百分点。陕西、甘肃产区均表示出货放缓，但是山西等周边产区入库结束，库存由增变减，因此全国冷库库存出货 量较上周稍有增加。 苹果期货主力合约完成移仓换月，AP2605延续高位震荡。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货 4 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：卓创资讯 国信期货 6 研究所 第 P 三 a 部 r 分 t3 需求端情况 需求端：冷库出货量逐渐增加 研究所 Ø 据卓创资讯，截至2025年12月4日，全国冷库库容比下 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 研究员：刘倩楠 农产品日报 2024 年 12 月 01 日 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | MARKE HILLE | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日价格 | 上一工作日价 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日价 | 涨跌 | | 格 | | | | | | 成 | | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 106.38 | 106.36 | 0.02 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.15 | 4.15 | 0.00 | | 栖霞一、二级纸袋 80 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.40 | 2.40 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱 一、二级纸袋 80 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.30 | 7.22 | 0.08 | | 期货价格 | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The fundamentals of apples this year are relatively strong due to factors such as decreased apple production, low expected apple storage volume, small fruit size, poor quality, low excellent fruit rate, high purchase price, low warehouse receipt production rate, high warehouse receipt cost, and concerns about long - term preservation [4][31][33] - Although the apple market is strong, considering the significant increase in apple futures prices, there is a short - term divergence in the market. The upward space for the January contract and the May contract is expected to be limited [33] Summary by Directory Part 1: Preface Summary Market Review - In November, the main continuous price of apple futures was volatile, and the price center shifted up from the previous range of 9,000 - 9,300 yuan/ton to the range of 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton. The main reason was the low apple storage volume and high cost of making apple warehouse receipts [3][10] - In November, the price of new - season Fuji apples in Shaanxi was relatively stable, and the market transaction was good. The opening price of 70 semi - commercial paper - bagged Fuji in Luochuan, Shaanxi was around 3.85 yuan/jin, then rose to 4.15 yuan/jin, 0.4 yuan/jin higher than the same period last year. The trading price of 80 and above first - and second - grade sources of paper - bagged Fuji in Qixia, Shandong was maintained at around 3.75 yuan/jin, basically the same as the same period last year [10] Market Outlook - The apple fundamentals this year are strong, with decreased production, low expected storage volume, small fruit size, poor quality, and concerns about long - term preservation [4] Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: In the short term, the apple trend is slightly strong, but considering the current high price, the upward space for the January contract is relatively limited - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8] Part 2: Fundamental Situation Market Review - Similar to the content in the preface summary, including the price trends of apple futures and spot apples in November [10] Cold Storage Inventory - As of November 27, 2025, the total apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas of China was 7.6675 million tons, a decrease of 64,100 tons from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 795,000 tons (9.4%). The cold - storage inventory in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu decreased year - on - year, while that in Shanxi and Liaoning increased. The current national cold - storage apple inventory is at a low level in the same period over the years, only higher than that in 2018/19 [12][13] - Apple storage is basically over, and it is expected that the cold - storage inventory will decrease significantly in December and January during the pre - Spring Festival holiday consumption period [13] New - Season Apple Listing and Demand - In November, the market mainly consumed fresh apples, so the cold - storage apple shipping speed was very slow. It is expected that the cold - storage apple shipping speed will be slow in early December. The holiday consumption for the Spring Festival may also start late - In November, the demand for apples in the Guangzhou wholesale market was average. The average daily arrival volume was lower than that of last year and the year before. In December, the cold - storage apple shipment volume and market demand are expected to increase seasonally, but may still be lower than last year [21] Import and Export Situation - Apple exports: In October 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 80,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 17%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume was about 684,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%. In November, the export volume is expected to increase seasonally but still be lower than last year - Apple imports: In October 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 3,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 68.1% and a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 111,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.1%. In November, the import volume is expected to remain low [26] Substitute Situation - The average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits: In November, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits increased slightly. It is expected to continue to rise slightly in December, which will support the apple price - The average wholesale price of tangerines: In November, the price of tangerines dropped significantly. In December, the overall fruit price is expected to be slightly strong, but the price of tangerines may still be relatively weak [29] Part 3: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation Fundamental Analysis - Similar to the market outlook in the preface summary, emphasizing the strong apple fundamentals this year [31][33] Market Analysis - Although the apple market is strong, due to the significant increase in futures prices, there is a short - term divergence in the market. The upward space for the January contract and the May contract is expected to be limited [33]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The short - term apple futures price is expected to maintain high - level operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 9,531 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest is 137,175 hands, with an increase of 12,638 hands compared to the previous period. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 8,910 hands, a decrease of 990 hands [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin, in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.6 yuan/jin, in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70 semi - commercial) is 4.2 yuan/jin, and in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80 first - grade secondary fruit farmer's goods) is 4 yuan/jin, with no change in all the prices compared to the previous period [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons. The weekly apple fruit wholesale price is 9.4 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.07 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg. The national total apple cold - storage inventory is 773.16 million tons, the Shandong apple storage capacity ratio is 0.54, an increase of 0.03, and the Shaanxi apple storage capacity ratio is 0.53, a decrease of 0.01. The monthly apple export volume is 80,000 tons, with the monthly apple export amount year - on - year growth rate at - 14.3%, and the monthly import amount of fresh, dried fruits and nuts is 1,334,364 million US dollars, a decrease of 503,616 million US dollars [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0 yuan/jin [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly fruit wholesale prices of pear, banana, and watermelon are 6.71 yuan/kg, 5.37 yuan/kg, and 5.78 yuan/kg respectively. The daily average number of trucks arriving at the Guangdong Jiangmen, Xiaqiao, and Chalong wholesale markets in the morning is 12.2, 16, and 23.8 respectively, with no change compared to the previous period [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 17.51%, a decrease of 9.26%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.51%, a decrease of 9.27% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The trading of inventory apples in apple - producing areas is generally inactive. Merchants are making tentative purchases for market distribution, but the market sales speed is slow. The trading is somewhat stalemated, and the transaction prices change little. There is a small amount of remaining ground - sourced apples in Shandong and Shanxi, with a decline in quality, and most of the transactions are based on negotiated prices. Apples in Shandong and Shanxi are still being stored, the ground - sourced trading is gradually ending, and the trading of stored - sourced goods is limited [2]. 3.8观点总结 - In Shandong, the ground - sourced trading in the Shandong production area is coming to an end, with a small amount of apples being stored in some places like Qixia, and the storage of some Cream Fuji is also ending. In Shaanxi, the storage is basically completed, and the production area has started to transfer to outbound storage. In northern Shaanxi, most merchants distribute their self - stored goods, and there is a small amount of goods transferred through some foreign - trade channels. In southern Shaanxi, fruit farmers' goods are mainly transferred, and the transaction is better than that in northern Shaanxi. Some of the goods go to the second - and third - tier markets, and some are transferred by Shandong merchants. The performance of the sales area market is average, and attention should be paid to the substitution effect of citrus fruits on the market [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The national apple cold storage inventory as of November 13, 2025, is 764.24 million tons, 90.54 million tons lower than the same period last year. The storage ratio in Shandong has increased by 10.24% week - on - week, and in Shaanxi by 2.63%. The ground trading in Shandong is ending, while the storage is in full swing. In Shaanxi, storage and shipment are happening simultaneously, with storage almost finished. The sales area is in the off - season, and the sales space of apples is squeezed by citrus. The apple futures price is expected to remain high in the short term [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main apple futures contract is 9433 yuan/ton, the main contract position is 138008 hands (down 1405 hands), and the net long position of the top 20 futures is 9377 hands (up 1068 hands) [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, Shaanxi Luochuan, and Shandong Yantai Qixia are 5.25 yuan/jin, 2.6 yuan/jin (up 0.3 yuan/jin), 4.2 yuan/jin, and 3.8 yuan/jin (up 0.3 yuan/jin) respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5128.51 million tons, the average wholesale price of apples is 9.49 yuan/kg (up 0.03 yuan/kg), and that of Fuji apples is 9.12 yuan/kg (up 0.08 yuan/kg). The total national apple cold storage inventory is 65.82 million tons, the storage ratios in Shandong and Shaanxi are 0.6 and 0.51 respectively. The monthly apple export volume is 70000 tons, and the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1837980 million US dollars (up 248684.5 million US dollars) [2] Industry Situation - The year - on - year export amount of apples is - 8.5%, and the profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The wholesale prices of pears, bananas, and watermelons are 6.66 yuan/kg (down 0.01 yuan/kg), 5.36 yuan/kg (up 0.18 yuan/kg), and 5.39 yuan/kg (down 0.09 yuan/kg) respectively. The average daily early - morning arrival vehicle numbers at Guangdong Jiangmen, Xiaqiao, and Chalong wholesale markets are 12.2 (unchanged), 16 (down 1), and 23.8 (down 0.2) respectively [2] Option Market - The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options for apples are both 26.07% [2] Industry News - In the western production areas, the inventory Fuji trading is mainly for high - quality and small fruits, with stable prices. In Shandong, the ground trading is in the later stage, and the trading of small inventory fruits has started with acceptable prices. The storage of new - season late - maturing Fuji is almost finished, and the remaining inventory is mainly in Shandong Qixia [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - As of November 13, 2025, the total cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas nationwide was 764240 tons, 90540 tons lower than the same period last year. The current inventory level does not represent the peak. The apple futures price is expected to remain high in the short term due to factors such as the market entering the off - season and the increase in citrus sales squeezing the apple sales space [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogues Futures Market - The closing price of the main apple futures contract was 9438 yuan/ton, and the main contract position was 139413 lots, a decrease of 13351 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures was 8309 lots, a decrease of 1191 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in different regions remained stable, with prices in Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, Shaanxi Luochuan, and Shandong Yantai Qixia at 5.25 yuan/jin, 2.3 yuan/jin, 4.2 yuan/jin, and 3.5 yuan/jin respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The annual apple production was 5128510 tons, the weekly apple wholesale price was 9.49 yuan/kg, the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.12 yuan/kg. The total cold - storage inventory of apples nationwide was 764240 tons, the capacity ratio in Shandong was 0.51, and in Shaanxi was 0.03. The monthly apple export volume was 70000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The month - on - month growth rate of apple export amount was - 8.5%, and the import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts was 1837980 dollars, with an increase of 248684.5 dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The wholesale prices of duck pears, bananas, and watermelons were 6.66 yuan/kg, 5.39 yuan/kg, and 5.36 yuan/kg respectively. The early - morning average daily arrival of trucks at Guangdong Jiangmen, Guangdong Xiaqiao, and Guangdong Chalong wholesale markets was 12.2, 16, and 23.8 respectively [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options for apples was 23.42% and 2.11% respectively [2] Industry News - The trading of stored Fuji apples in the western producing areas was generally stable, and the enthusiasm of merchants to purchase was average. In the Shandong producing area, the quantity of out - of - storage goods decreased, and the quality was uneven. The new - season late - maturing Fuji apple warehousing work was nearing completion [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Apple Futures 2601 contract rose, with a weekly increase of approximately 5.86%. The late - maturing Fuji apple storage work for the new season is nearing completion, and the remaining inventory is mainly concentrated in places like Qixia, Shandong. As of November 13, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas nationwide was 7642400 tons, 905400 tons lower than the same period last year. The sales market has entered the off - season, and the sales space of apples is squeezed to some extent by the increasing supply of citrus fruits. In the short term, the apple futures price is expected to remain at a high level [4][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The price of the Apple Futures 2601 contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 5.86% [4][8]. - **Market Outlook**: The cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas nationwide is lower than last year. The storage work in Shandong is in the peak period, while in Shaanxi, it is basically completed. The sales market is in the off - season, and the sales space of apples is squeezed. The apple futures price is expected to remain high in the short term [4]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Fruit prices and consumption [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The price of the Apple Futures 2601 contract rose by about 5.86% this week. As of the end of the week, the net position of the top 20 in apple futures was 9500 lots, and the number of apple futures warrants was 0 [8][14]. - **Spot Market**: As of November 14, 2025, the mainstream price of纸袋 red Fuji 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmers' goods in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 3.5 yuan per catty; the price of paper - bagged Fuji apples 75 and above in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.30 yuan per catty [17]. 3.3 Industry Situation and Options - **Supply Side**: As of November 13, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas nationwide was 7642400 tons, 905400 tons lower than the same period last year. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 51.27%, an increase of 10.24% from last week, and in Shaanxi, it was 59.64%, an increase of 2.63% from last week [24]. - **Demand Side**: - **Wholesale Market**: As of November 14, the average daily number of early - morning arrivals at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong decreased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was suspended (replaced by 0). As of November 7, 2025, the average wholesale price of all varieties of apples was 9.49 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan per kilogram; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.04 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 yuan per kilogram. The weekly average wholesale price of 5 kinds of fruits was 7.04 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan per kilogram [28][31][35]. - **Export**: In September 2025, China's fresh apple exports were about 70800 tons, with an export value of 69178601 US dollars and an average export price of 977.40 US dollars per ton. The export volume increased by 3.51% month - on - month compared with August and decreased by 6.36% year - on - year compared with September 2024. From January to September 2025, China's total fresh apple exports were 600000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.50% [39]. - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options for apples this week was presented in a chart, but specific data was not provided [40]. 3.4 Futures - Stock Correlation - A chart of the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit was presented, but specific analysis was not provided [42]