苹果产业链周报 ——重新蓄能 2025/08/24 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 市场信息 产区：本周早熟品种陆续上量，陕北嘎啦上市，新季早熟嘎啦明显质量分布不均，好货、大果占比有限，价 格两极分化，客商整体采购积极性尚可。山东目前终端老富士消化缓慢，性价比不高，客商调货积极性不 佳，对于大果、好果拿货意愿较低。早熟方面，栖霞毕郭、寺口市场美八、华硕、鲁丽陆续交易，整体价格 稳定，上货量不多，客商拿货积极性较高。陕北嘎啦陆续上市，质量不均，果个偏小，红货有限，价格呈现 两极分化走势，一般货源价格混乱。 销区：广东三大市场早间到车环比略有增加，实际成交以质论价，近期到车量仍不多，仍以富士为主，早熟 嘎啦有所上量，苹果终端走货速度不快，好货消化速度尚可，差货消化缓慢，中转库略有挤压。 库存：截至8月20日，钢联数据显示，全国冷库库存39.45万吨，环比减少6.56万吨，走货速度环比上周略有 放缓。山东库容比7.11%，环比减少0.89%，陕西库容比1.41%，环比减少0.43%。卓创数据显示，全国冷库 库存40.42万吨，环比减少5.71万吨，山东库 ...

建议区间交易。 免责声明 苹果产业日报 2025-08-25 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 10月合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) 47 主力合约持仓量:苹果(日,手) | 8141 | | 77654 | 2964 | | | 仓单数量:苹果(日,张) 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:苹果(日,手) | 0 | | -1128 | -1128 | | 现货市场 | 山东烟台栖霞现货价格(纸袋80#以上一 甘肃静宁苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, | 3.7 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of Apple Futures 2510 declined and adjusted, with a weekly drop of 1.15%. According to preliminary estimates based on bagging volume survey data, the national apple production in the new season is expected to be 37.3664 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.35%. As of August 20, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 394,500 tons, a decrease of 65,600 tons from last week. Although the inventory of old apples is low, the arrival of early - maturing apples has impacted the inventory clearance speed, and the sales speed has slightly slowed down. The price of early - maturing apples is chaotic, and the transaction price has slightly declined. Overall, the low inventory of old apples still supports the price, but the increase in the listing volume of Gala apples restricts the price increase, showing a range - bound market. The support level for the Apple 2510 contract is around 7,900 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is around 8,200 yuan/ton [7]. - It is recommended to trade the Apple 2510 contract in the short - term within the range. Future trading should pay attention to the inventory clearance rate, consumption, and new crop production [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of Apple Futures 2510 declined and adjusted this week, with a weekly drop of 1.15% [7][11]. - **Market Outlook**: New - season apple production is expected to increase. Cold - storage inventory is decreasing, but the arrival of early - maturing apples has affected the clearance speed. The price of early - maturing apples is chaotic and has slightly declined. The low inventory of old apples supports the price, but the increase in Gala apples restricts the price increase, showing a range - bound market. The support and resistance levels for the Apple 2510 contract are 7,900 yuan/ton and 8,200 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Trade the Apple 2510 contract in the short - term within the range. Future trading should focus on the inventory clearance rate, consumption, and new crop production [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: This week, the price of Apple Futures 2510 fluctuated and declined, with a weekly drop of 1.15%. As of the end of the week, the net short position of the top 20 in Apple Futures was 0 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 0 [11][17]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 22, 2025, the mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmer's goods of bagged Red Fuji in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 3.7 yuan/jin; the price of bagged Fuji apples of 75 and above in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.3 yuan/jin [20]. 3.3. Industry Situation and Options - **Supply Side**: As of August 20, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 394,500 tons, a decrease of 65,600 tons from last week. The arrival of early - maturing apples has affected the clearance speed. The storage capacity ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu have all decreased [25]. - **Demand Side**: As of August 21, the average daily number of trucks arriving at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong in the morning has increased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants is 0.4 yuan/jin. As of August 15, 2025, the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.48 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32%; the average wholesale price of apples was 9.66 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.31%. The weekly average wholesale price of 5 kinds of fruits was 6.94 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00%. In July 2023, China's fresh apple exports were 50,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25% [29][33][37][40]. - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options of apples this week is presented in a chart, but no specific data is given [41]. 3.4. Futures - Stock Correlation - Information about the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit is presented in a chart, but no specific data is given [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current low volume of Gala apples on the market and low old - crop inventories boost short - term apple prices, but the price increase may slow down after a large number of Gala apples are listed. The AP2510 contract has entered an adjustment phase, and it is recommended to take profits and exit long positions on rallies [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple contract is 8,123 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract is 81,632 lots, a decrease of 1,945 lots. The number of apple warehouse receipts is 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 3,158 lots, an increase of 500 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80) is 4 yuan/jin, with no change; the spot price in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 4 yuan/jin, with no change; the spot price in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.3 yuan/jin, with no change; the spot price in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70 semi - commercial) is 4 yuan/jin, with no change [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The weekly wholesale price of apples is 9.69 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.51 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.16 yuan/kg. The storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 0.09, a decrease of 0.01; the total national apple cold - storage inventory is 53.39 million tons, a decrease of 8.22 million tons. The monthly export volume of apples is 40,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the monthly export value is 4,330.8 million US dollars, and the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1,955,488 million US dollars, a decrease of 245,562.17 million US dollars. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.5 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 10.25 yuan/kg, the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 5.88 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg, and the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 3.58 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg. The daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 8.4, an increase of 1; the daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 11, an increase of 1; the daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 16, an increase of 0.4 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 20.22%, a decrease of 0.19%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 20.23%, a decrease of 0.18% [2] Industry News - On August 14, 2025, paper - bagged Gala apples in the western main producing areas are in the critical color - turning period, with poor color - turning and low purchasing enthusiasm from buyers. In the Shandong producing area, the supply of Luli and Jinduhong apples continues to increase, and buyers pick and choose. The inventory of Fuji apples has chaotic transactions, and the quality of farmers' apples is average, with common price - cutting transactions. According to preliminary estimates by Mysteel based on bagging volume survey data, the national apple output is expected to be 3,736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The large - scale listing of Gala apples is slightly delayed, and the low inventory of old - crop apples boosts short - term apple prices. However, when Gala apples are listed later, the price increase rhythm may slow down. Technically, the 2510 contract should pay attention to the pressure at the 8200 yuan/ton integer mark. It is recommended to consider partially taking profits and exiting long positions at high prices and holding them with a light position [2] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the October contract for apples is 8127 yuan/ton, the main contract position is 82468 lots (a week - on - week increase of 2083 lots), the number of warehouse receipts is 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 1613 lots (a week - on - week decrease of 1299 lots) [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80) is 4 yuan/jin, in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 4 yuan/jin, in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.4 yuan/jin, and in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70 semi - commercial) is 4 yuan/jin, with no week - on - week changes [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5128.51 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 168.34 million tons), the average wholesale price of apples is 9.75 yuan/kg (a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan/kg), the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.51 yuan/kg (a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 yuan/kg), the total national apple cold - storage inventory is 53.39 million tons (a week - on - week decrease of 8.22 million tons), the storage capacity ratio of Shandong apples is 0.09 (a week - on - week decrease of 0.01), the storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 0.02 (a week - on - week decrease of 0.01), and the monthly export volume of apples is 40000 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 10000 tons) [2] Industry Situation - The monthly export value of apples is 4330.8 million US dollars, the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1955488 - 245562.17 million US dollars, and the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.5 yuan/jin (a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin) [2] Downstream Situation - The average wholesale price of tangerines is 10.25 yuan/kg (a week - on - week decrease of 0.39 yuan/kg), the wholesale price of bananas is 5.92 yuan/kg (a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg), the wholesale price of watermelons is 3.73 yuan/kg (a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 yuan/kg), the average daily number of early - morning arriving trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 8.4 (a week - on - week increase of 1), at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 1 (a week - on - week increase of 11), and at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 16 (a week - on - week increase of 0.4) [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 19.18% (a day - on - day increase of 0.04%), and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 19.19% (a day - on - day increase of 0.06%) [2] Industry News - On August 11, 2025, after rainfall in the western production areas such as Weinan, the coloring conditions for apples were good. It is expected that a large number of red paper - bagged Gala apples will appear in four or five days. Currently, most purchasers are waiting and watching, and the price is slightly weak. The low - priced bare - skinned Gala apples are selling well, priced according to quality. In the Shandong production area, the trading of inventory apples is light, the trading of early - maturing bare - skinned Luli apples is smooth, and the prices are temporarily stable. On Monday, the 2510 contract of apples closed up 1.31%. According to the preliminary estimate of the bagging volume survey data by Mysteel, the national apple output is expected to be 3736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared with the 2024 - 2025 production season. As of August 6, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main national production areas is 53.39 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.02 million tons. The sales speed has slowed down slightly compared with last week and is basically the same as that of last year [2] View Summary - The inventory of old - crop apples is low, and the sales pressure is not large. The trading is priced according to quality, and the overall sales speed has slowed down. After rainfall in the western production areas such as Weinan, the coloring conditions for apples are good, and it is expected that a large number of red paper - bagged Gala apples will appear in four or five days. On August 5, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange issued an announcement on soliciting opinions on amending the "Detailed Rules for Fresh Apple Futures of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange", which may revise aspects such as delivery units, alternative delivery items, and packaging [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the given report 2) Core View of the Report - Since August, the Apple 10 contract has risen for multiple consecutive trading days, with the AP2510 contract up 1.27% as of the 11th. The quality differentiation of early - maturing apples has led to concerns about the quality of deliverable Fuji apples. The market is in a state where long and short factors are intertwined, and the futures market shows a volatile pattern [3] 3) Summary by Related Content Apple Futures Market Performance - The Apple 10 contract has been rising for multiple consecutive trading days in August, and the AP2510 contract had a 1.27% increase as of August 11th [3] Situation of Early - Maturing Apples - In the western producing areas, the early - maturing Gala apples have been gradually listed. Due to high - temperature weather, there are problems such as difficult coloring, and the large - scale listing time is expected to be delayed compared with previous years. In the Shandong producing area, the current supply of Luli apples is average, and the trading price is stable. Some early - maturing apple varieties in Shandong and high - quality paper - bagged Gala apples in Shaanxi have higher listing prices than last year. However, due to climate factors, the proportion of high - quality apples has decreased, and the mainstream price has shown a downward trend after the high - price start [3] Forecast of New - Season Apple Yield and Price - The preliminary estimate of the new - season apple yield shows a limited reduction. The reference range for the opening price is 3.2 - 3.5 yuan per catty (equivalent to 7,500 - 8,500 yuan per ton). Under normal climate conditions in major producing areas, the spot price has a bottom support, but the upside is limited [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Thursday, the Apple 2510 contract closed up 0.43%. New - season apple production is expected to be 3736.64 million tons, a 2.35% increase from the 2024 - 2025 season. As of August 6, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 53.39 million tons, a decrease of 8.02 million tons from last week, with a slightly slower shipment speed compared to last week and basically the same as last year. The old - crop inventory is low with little sales pressure, and the trading is priced according to quality, with an overall slowdown in shipment speed. Some early - maturing varieties' purchase prices are falling, while the opening price of Gala apples is acceptable. With the old - crop inventory still providing some support but a general trading atmosphere, the price is expected to fluctuate within a range. Technically, the Apple 2510 contract is expected to continue rising in the short term and has stood above the 20 - day moving average. It is recommended to trade with a light - position trial long, while controlling risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple contract was 7940 yuan/ton, the main - contract holding volume was 73071 hands, the warehouse - receipt quantity was 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 1066 hands. The main - contract holding volume decreased by 1543 hands, and the net long position decreased by 712 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia, Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, and Shaanxi Luochuan remained unchanged, at 4 yuan/jin, 4 yuan/jin, 2.4 yuan/jin, and 4 yuan/jin respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple production was 5128.51 million tons, the apple wholesale price was 9.75 yuan/kg (a weekly increase of 0.03 yuan/kg), and the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.67 yuan/kg (a weekly decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg) [2] Industry Situation - The national apple cold - storage total inventory was 53.39 million tons, a decrease of 8.22 million tons from last week. The storage - capacity ratios of Shandong and Shaanxi apples were 0.09 and 0.02 respectively, both decreasing by 0.01 from last week. The monthly apple export volume was 40000 tons, a decrease of 10000 tons; the monthly apple export value was 4330.8 million US dollars, and the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts was 1955488 - 245562.17 million US dollars. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 apple storage merchants was 0.6 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The average wholesale prices of tangerines, bananas, and watermelons were 10.64 yuan/kg, 3.73 yuan/kg, and 5.92 yuan/kg respectively. The average wholesale price of bananas decreased by 0.08 yuan/kg, and that of watermelons decreased by 0.05 yuan/kg. The early - morning average daily arrival vehicle numbers at the Guangdong Jiangmen, Xiaqiao, and Chalong wholesale markets were 7.4, 10, and 15.6 respectively, with an increase of 0.6 vehicles at the Jiangmen market and 1 vehicle at the Chalong market [2] Option Market - The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options for apples were 20%, with decreases of 0.9% and 0.84% respectively [2] Industry News - On August 7, 2025, early - maturing Gala and Luli apples in the western production areas were on the market, with general purchasing enthusiasm from merchants and transactions priced according to quality. In the Shandong production area, smooth - skinned Luli apples were gradually on the market, with chaotic prices due to fruit size and redness. The inventory of Fuji apples remained light in the market, with prices stable but weak [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - On July 31, 2025, the supply of early - maturing apples in the west was average with poor coloring and weak market feedback. The trading speed of Shandong's inventory Fuji apples was average, and farmers were selling with price concessions. The Apple 2510 contract continued to decline and was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. It was recommended to wait and see [2]. - The purchase price of early - maturing varieties declined, and farmers' price concessions pressured the apple market. The old - crop inventory was low with little sales pressure, but the overall shipment speed slowed down [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October contract for apples was 7814 yuan/ton, the main - contract position volume was 88131 hands, the number of warehouse receipts was 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 2395 hands. Compared with the previous period, the main - contract position volume decreased by 5697 hands, and the net long position decreased by 1234 hands [2]. Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia, Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, and Shaanxi Luochuan remained unchanged compared with the previous period [2]. Upstream Situation - The national apple output was 5128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons compared with the previous period. The weekly average wholesale price of apples was 9.72 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.73 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.16 yuan/kg [2]. - The total national apple cold - storage inventory was 70.45 million tons, a decrease of 10.15 million tons. The capacity utilization ratio of Shandong apple cold - storage was 0.04, a decrease of 0.01; that of Shaanxi was 0.11, a decrease of 0.01. The monthly export volume of apples was 40000 tons, a decrease of 10000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import value of fresh, dried fruits and nuts was 4330.8 million US dollars, and the monthly export value of apples was 1955488 - 245562.17 million US dollars (the specific calculation result is not clear from the text). The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants was 0.7 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous period [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines was 10.04 yuan/kg, that of bananas was 3.81 yuan/kg, and that of watermelons was 5.97 yuan/kg. The daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Guangdong Jiangmen, Xiaqiao, and Chalong wholesale markets was 6.8, 8.8, and 14.6 respectively, with changes of - 0.09, - 0.4, and - 2 compared with the previous period [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for apples was 22.48%, an increase of 0.22% compared with the previous period [2]. Industry News - On July 31, 2025, the supply of early - maturing apples in the west was average with poor coloring and weak market feedback. The trading speed of Shandong's inventory Fuji apples was average, and farmers were selling with price concessions. The Apple 2510 contract closed down 1.33% on Thursday [2]. - According to preliminary estimates based on bagging volume survey data, the national apple output in the new season will be 3736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons (2.35%) compared with the 2024 - 2025 production season [2]. - As of July 30, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 61.61 million tons, a decrease of 8.84 million tons compared with the previous week. The shipment speed slowed down slightly compared with the previous week and was basically the same as the same period last year [2]. - The capacity utilization ratio of Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu apple cold - storages was 10.10%, 2.91%, and 2.05% respectively, with decreases of 1.02%, 0.74%, and 0.72% compared with the previous week. The shipment in the Gansu production area was sporadic [2]. - In some production areas, the early - maturing apples had serious regreening problems, and the actual transaction prices of varieties such as Qinyang, Meiba, and Luli decreased by 0.30 - 0.50 yuan/jin [2].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The Apple 2510 contract continues its adjustment trend, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [3] - The overall acquisition price of early - maturing apple varieties has declined, weakening price support, and affected by capital flow [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the October contract for apples is 7915 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract is 93828 lots, a decrease of 9760 lots compared to the previous period; the number of warehouse receipts is 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 3629 lots, a decrease of 246 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia, Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, and Shaanxi Luochuan remain unchanged compared to the previous period [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons; the weekly wholesale price of apples is 9.72 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.73 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.16 yuan/kg [2] Industry Situation - The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 70.45 million tons, a decrease of 10.15 million tons compared to the previous week; the storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 0.11, a decrease of 0.01; the storage capacity ratio in Shaanxi is 0.04, a decrease of 0.01; the monthly export volume of apples is 40000 tons; the monthly export value of apples is 4330.8 million US dollars, and the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1955488 - 245562.17 million US dollars; the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.7 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 10.04 yuan/kg, the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 5.97 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg, the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 3.81 yuan/kg; the early - morning average daily vehicle arrivals at Guangdong Jiangmen, Xiaqiao, and Chalong wholesale markets are 6.8, 8.8, and 14.6 vehicles respectively, with changes of 1, 0, and - 2 vehicles compared to the previous period [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for apples is 22.26%, a decrease of 0.47% [2] Industry News - On July 30, 2025, the trading of inventory fruits in the western production areas is basically over, and the remaining goods are mostly picked up by merchants and sent to the market. The supply of early - maturing apples has slightly increased, but the coloring is not satisfactory, and the price shows a slow decline. The sales of inventory apples in Shandong are average, with fruit farmers eager to sell. The Apple 2510 contract closed down 0.31% on Wednesday. According to preliminary estimates, the national apple output in the new season will be 3736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season [2] Viewpoint Summary - As of July 23, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory is 70.45 million tons, a decrease of 10.15 million tons compared to the previous week. The storage capacity ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu are 11.12%, 3.65%, and 2.77% respectively, with decreases of 1.03%, 0.98%, and 0.92% compared to the previous week. The old - crop inventory is low, and the sales pressure is small. The trading is priced according to quality [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The old - crop apple inventory is low with little sales pressure, and transactions are priced according to quality. Some early - maturing varieties have a serious regreening phenomenon, and the actual transaction prices of varieties such as Qinyang, Meiba, and Luli have dropped by 0.30 - 0.50 yuan per jin. The purchase price of early - maturing varieties has declined, weakening the price support. Coupled with the influence of capital flow, the apple futures rose and then fell. On Tuesday, the 2510 contract significantly reduced positions and corrected, giving back the decline of the past week. It is recommended to close long positions and wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the October contract for apples is 7,908 yuan/ton; the holding volume of the main contract is 103,588 hands, a decrease of 23,673 hands. The number of warehouse receipts is 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 3,875 hands, a decrease of 1,846 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80, second - grade fruit farmer's goods) is 4 yuan/jin [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons; the average wholesale price of apples is 9.75 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.73 yuan/kg; the total inventory of national apple cold storages is 70.45 million tons, a decrease of 10.15 million tons; the storage capacity ratio of Shandong apples is 11.12%, a decrease of 1.03%; the storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 3.65%, a decrease of 0.98%; the storage capacity ratio of Gansu apples is 2.77%, a decrease of 0.92%; the monthly export volume of apples is 40,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the monthly export value of apples is 4,330.8 million US dollars; the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1,955,488 million US dollars, a decrease of 245,562.17 million US dollars; the profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.7 yuan/jin [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The average wholesale price of tangerines is 10.04 yuan/kg; the wholesale price of bananas is 3.92 yuan/kg; the wholesale price of watermelons is 6.06 yuan/kg; the early - morning average daily arrival volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen Wholesale Market is 6.8 vehicles, an increase of 1 vehicle; the early - morning average daily arrival volume at the Guangdong Xiaqiao Wholesale Market is 14.6 vehicles; the early - morning average daily arrival volume at the Guangdong Chalong Wholesale Market is 8.8 vehicles, a decrease of 2 vehicles [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 22.73%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 22.73% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On July 29, 2025, the trading of inventory apples in the western production areas basically ended, and the remaining goods were mainly shipped by merchants themselves. The coloring of early - maturing apples was slow, and the redness was slightly poor. The actual transaction prices of varieties such as Qinyang, Meiba, and Luli decreased by 0.30 - 0.50 yuan/jin. In the Shandong production area, the number of inquiring merchants increased, the trading was smooth at the right price, and the trading atmosphere improved slightly. The apple 2510 contract closed down 3.1% on Tuesday. According to the preliminary estimate of the bagging volume survey data by Mysteel, the national apple output is expected to be 3,736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared with the 2024 - 2025 production season [2]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - As of July 23, 2025, the inventory of national main - producing area apple cold storages was 70.45 million tons, a decrease of 10.15 million tons compared with last week. The shipping speed was about the same as last week and basically the same as last year. The storage capacity ratio in the Shandong production area was 11.12%, a decrease of 1.03% compared with last week, and the de - stocking speed was still average. The storage capacity ratio in the Shaanxi production area was 3.65%, a decrease of 0.98% compared with last week, and the shipping was slightly faster than last week. The storage capacity ratio in the Gansu production area was 2.77%, a decrease of 0.92% compared with last week, and the shipping in the Gansu production area was sporadic [2].