Economic Overview - The US economy is experiencing robust growth, with online prediction markets indicating a projected Q3 GDP growth rate of 3.3%, suggesting an acceleration in economic expansion [1] Analyst Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of evidence-based narratives and the use of empirical data to support financial analysis, highlighting the role of charts in simplifying complex financial stories [1]

Group 1 - The individual began investing in high school in 2011, focusing on REITs, preferred stocks, and high-yield bonds, indicating a long-standing interest in markets and the economy [1] - Recently, the investment strategy has evolved to combine long stock positions with covered calls and cash secured puts, reflecting a more sophisticated approach to investing [1] - The investment philosophy is fundamentally long-term, with a primary focus on REITs and financials, while occasionally exploring ETFs and other stocks based on macro trade ideas [1]

This year alone, the Southeast Asian nation’s stock market has soared, its GDP growth is beating almost all estimates and it’s even managed a trade deal of sorts with the mercurial US president https://t.co/OWatQCRWi8 ...

Monetary Policy & Economic Data - The Fed is closely monitoring private sector data to compensate for potential government data delays, but acknowledges it may not be fully representative [4][5] - The Fed considers the labor market weakness as a key factor in policy decisions, with concerns about negative job growth [6][7] - The Fed acknowledges the importance of CPI data for assessing inflation, especially regarding colleagues' concerns [10][11] - The Fed views tariff effects as one-off events and focuses more on the labor market when setting policy [12][14] Labor Market Assessment - The labor market is considered weak, with negative job growth and a lack of hiring plans reported anecdotally [6][7][8] - There is no evidence of a tight labor market, with no wage increases or rising vacancies [15][16] Inflation & Tariffs - Tariff effects are seen as one-time price increases, not causing persistent inflation, consistent with central bank's long-standing view [12][13] - Businesses are passing tariffs through to higher-income consumers but not to lower-income consumers [18][19] - There's an estimated 40% pass-through of tariffs to prices, showing a correlation between tariff size and price changes [19] Future Policy Direction - The Fed is leaning towards cutting rates but cautiously, considering the divergence between a weak labor market and strong GDP growth (close to 4%) [20][22] - The Fed prefers a gradual approach to rate cuts (quarter point) to allow for adjustments based on incoming data [23] Private Credit Market - The Fed does not view the private credit market as a significant systemic risk due to the substantial equity positions involved [24][25]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Asia/EM (Emerging Markets) equity strategy, highlighting the current market conditions and future outlook for the region [2][4]. Core Insights - The recent rally in Asia/EM markets is primarily attributed to multiple expansions rather than earnings growth, raising concerns about sustainability [2][10]. - For the rally to continue into 2026, a significant reacceleration in global GDP growth and earnings estimates is necessary [4][14]. - Current downside risks for major Asia/EM indices range from 6% to 13%, while upside potential is limited to 1% to 8% [7][8]. - The 12-month forward P/E multiples have increased by 3.0 to 3.6 points since early April, returning to levels last seen in 2021, which are 1.0 to 1.8 standard deviations above the 10-year averages [11][12]. Earnings and Economic Outlook - Earnings estimate revisions have been flat to down since April, contrasting with the positive revisions seen in the US market [7][14]. - The economic team expresses concerns about growth risks, particularly in trade-dependent economies, with moderate deceleration expected in forward EPS for major markets [14][15]. - The report indicates resilience in domestic demand sectors like Financials and Consumer, while global cyclicals such as Energy and Materials are expected to face weakness [15]. Market Sentiment and Flows - There is a noted gap of approximately 10% between current index levels and base case targets, with markets nearing bull case targets [8][34]. - Sentiment indicators show complacency but not extreme euphoria, with inflows into EM equities increasing from 2 out of 10 weeks at the market trough in April to 8 out of 10 weeks recently [34][36]. Sector Performance - Emerging Markets (EM) equities are characterized as low-quality cyclicals, with historical performance showing sudden bursts of investor interest followed by disappointment [18]. - The report suggests a preference for Financials and domestic Consumer plays over traditional cyclicals like Energy and Materials, which are currently underweighted [25][30]. Conclusion - The report emphasizes the need for cautious optimism regarding the sustainability of the current market rally, highlighting the importance of economic growth and earnings recovery for future performance [2][4][18].

Group 1 - U.S. GDP growth in the first half of 2025 was primarily driven by investment in data centers and information processing technology, with a mere 0.1% growth when excluding these sectors [1][2] - The dollar value contributed to GDP growth by AI data-center buildout surpassed U.S. consumer spending for the first time, highlighting the significance of technology investment [2] - Investment in information-processing equipment and software constituted only 4% of U.S. GDP but accounted for 92% of GDP growth in the first half of 2025, indicating a disproportionate impact on economic expansion [3] Group 2 - Major tech companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, and Nvidia have invested tens of billions into data centers to meet the rising demand for AI and large language models [4] - Hyperscaler capital expenditures on data centers have increased fourfold, approaching $400 billion annually, with the top 10 spenders responsible for nearly a third of this spending [5] - Data center-linked spending is estimated to be adding approximately 100 basis points to U.S. real GDP growth, underscoring its economic significance [5] Group 3 - The surge in technology-led growth occurs amidst broader economic sluggishness, with job creation slowing and concerns that the economy could have faced recession without technology investment [5]

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Commentary - The dollar index (DXY00) has increased by +0.40%, reaching a 1.5-week high, driven by hawkish comments from Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid regarding the need to combat persistent inflation [1][3] - Political uncertainty in France and Japan is negatively impacting the euro and yen, thereby benefiting the dollar [1] - The ongoing US government shutdown, now in its second week, poses a bearish outlook for the dollar, with potential stagnation in GDP growth if the shutdown continues [2] Group 2: Eurozone Economic Indicators - The EUR/USD pair has decreased by -0.42%, remaining just above a 1.5-week low, influenced by signs of weakness in the Eurozone economy, particularly following a decline in German factory orders [4] - German factory orders for August unexpectedly fell by -0.8% month-over-month, contrasting with expectations of a +1.2% increase [5] - Market expectations for a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) are minimal, with only a 1% chance of a -25 basis point cut at the upcoming policy meeting [5] Group 3: Japanese Yen Performance - The USD/JPY pair has risen by +0.44%, with the yen hitting a 6.25-month low against the dollar, primarily due to concerns over the election of Sanae Takaichi as the leader of Japan's ruling party [6] - Takaichi's election raises doubts about the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) timeline for policy tightening and increases concerns regarding a potential rise in debt supply due to her support for expanded financial stimulus [6]

Market Timing and Historical Context - The difficulty of timing the market is highlighted, emphasizing the need to exit and re-enter at the right times, which is challenging [1] - Historical stock market crashes illustrate the unpredictability of stocks in the near term, making market timing a risky endeavor [2] - The S&P 500 index's performance during the dot-com bubble and subsequent crash serves as a reminder of the potential for significant losses [3][4] Labor Market Insights - Private sector job losses were reported, with a decline of 32,000 jobs in September, primarily in small and mid-sized businesses [9] - Hiring intentions have weakened, with the lowest job addition plans for September since 2011, indicating a cooling labor market [10] - Job openings increased slightly to 7.23 million in August, suggesting ongoing demand for labor despite a cooling market [11] Consumer Confidence and Spending - Consumer confidence has decreased, with a notable drop in perceptions of job availability, reflecting a cooling labor market [14][15] - Despite weak consumer sentiment, consumer spending data remains strong, indicating a disconnect between sentiment and actual spending behavior [24] Economic Growth and Market Outlook - The long-term outlook for the stock market remains positive, driven by expectations of earnings growth [21] - While demand for goods and services is still positive, economic growth has normalized from previous high levels [23] - The U.S. stock market may outperform the economy in the near term due to companies adjusting cost structures and achieving positive operating leverage [25]

Joining us now is David Steinberg. He's the CEO of Zeta Global. David, we're gonna maybe brand this as David Zeta data.What do you think. >> I don't know. My my wife and kids might like it, but the uh you know, as you've said, in the current environment, getting access to data is getting harder.And what we're seeing is more and more people looking at private indicacies like the Zeta Economic Index. Yeah, because with you know and now there's all this also it's not just that government data may not happen Da ...

Core Insights - The current economic environment shows a disparity in spending habits, with wealthier individuals increasing their spending while others are reducing discretionary expenses [3][7] - There is a notable decline in consumer interest in credit, with a 22% drop from July to August, impacting larger purchases for non-wealthy consumers [5][10] - Essential spending is on the rise, which is helping to maintain overall economic growth despite the drop in discretionary spending [6][7] Economic Indicators - The Zeta Economic Index decreased by four points from July to August, indicating a potential slowdown, but GDP is still expected to grow at or above 2% for the remainder of the year [6][7] - Essential items are being purchased at a greater rate, offsetting declines in discretionary spending and contributing to GDP growth [7][11] - Labor Day sales are anticipated to provide a boost in retail activity for September [8] Consumer Behavior - There is an increasing aversion to risk among consumers, which is reflected in their spending patterns [3][4][11] - The automotive sector has seen a decline in spending, with a noted drop of four points [4] - Consumers are still willing to spend on essential items, which is crucial for maintaining economic stability [10][11]