What was the feeling the first time you were on Air Force One? >> It's just >> or Marine One like is there a special thing where you're just like what is going on? Like are >> Yeah. >> Yeah. When you're on these things like it's amazing. >> Yeah. >> Right. You're you are where real conversations happen. We went to see uh >> Putin. So I get on Air Force One at 5:00 a.m. He gets on at 5:45. We fly to um Alaska. >> Alaska. Right. >> Okay. >> Right. >> So, we're talking about then we we're there for four hours ...

Core Insights - The domestic GDP growth for FY26 is expected to exceed the current estimate by the National Statistical Office (NSO) once the new base year is released, according to a report by the State Bank of India (SBI) [1] GDP Growth Estimates - The NSO's first advance estimate projects GDP growth at 7.4% for FY26, up from 6.5% in FY25, with Gross Value Added (GVA) growth at 7.3% and nominal GDP growth at 8% [2] - SBI anticipates GDP growth for FY26 could be around 7.5%, particularly with the base year revision to 2022-23 [2] Future Revisions - The second advance estimates, which will include additional data and revisions, are set to be released on February 27, 2026, and are expected to reflect changes following the base revision [3] - Historically, the difference between GDP growth estimates from the Reserve Bank of India and the NSO has been around 20-30 basis points, making the 7.4% estimate for FY26 reasonable [3] Per Capita National Income - The growth momentum is projected to positively impact per capita national income, which is expected to increase by ₹16,025 annually, reaching ₹2,47,487 in FY26 [3] Sectoral Growth Projections - Agriculture and allied activities are projected to grow by 3.1% in FY26, down from 4.6% in the previous year [4] - The services sector is expected to be the main growth driver, with an estimated growth of 9.1% in FY26, compared to 7.2% last year [4] - The industry sector is projected to grow by 6.0% in FY26, slightly higher than the 5.9% growth recorded last year, supported by robust manufacturing growth of 7.0% [5] - Mining is expected to decelerate by 0.7% in FY26, contrasting with a growth of 2.7% in FY25 [5]

Economic Indicators and Employment Data - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release November job openings, quitting, and layoffs data, alongside the December jobs report [2] - Economists project that approximately 60,000 jobs were added in December, resulting in a total of about 670,000 jobs added for 2025, significantly lower than the 2 million jobs added in 2024 [5] - The jobless rate is expected to decrease to 4.5% in December from a four-year high, indicating a modest employment growth trend [5] Inflation Trends - In the euro zone, inflation reports for Germany and France are due, with expectations that the headline inflation will stabilize at 2% and core inflation at 2.4% [6][7] - Switzerland's inflation is predicted to slightly increase to 0.1% after an unexpected drop to zero in November, which aligns with the central bank's forecast [11] - Australia's CPI figures are expected to show a modest easing of inflation, remaining above the central bank's target, which will influence the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy stance [14] Central Bank Policies - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain a cautious approach to monetary policy, with upcoming data likely supporting the stabilization of inflation at target levels [7][8] - In Latin America, central banks in Chile, Peru, and Mexico may consider mild adjustments to monetary policy, while Brazil is positioned for aggressive unwinding of rates [17][18] - Peru's central bank may hold rates at 4.25% due to inflation running below the target range, reflecting a cautious approach amid upcoming elections [19] Sector-Specific Insights - The rapid adoption of artificial intelligence is seen as a limiting factor for payroll growth, as companies focus on enhancing productivity [3] - Employers have slowed hiring in 2025, indicating a stabilization in job openings and a cautious approach to additional hiring due to government trade-policy announcements [4]

Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to experience solid growth in 2026, with lower unemployment and slightly reduced inflation compared to 2025 [2][9] - Vanguard's forecast for 2026 includes a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.2% from 4.6% in November 2025, driven by increased investments in AI and other projects [7] Employment and Job Market - The job market is anticipated to rebound in 2026 after a sluggish performance in 2025, as businesses increase investments and economic growth drives demand for workers [7][9] Economic Growth - GDP growth is projected at 2.25% for 2026, supported by strong investment numbers and fiscal policy changes, particularly tax cuts from the "One Big, Beautiful Bill" [7][10] Inflation Trends - Inflation is expected to remain elevated due to the continued impact of tariffs, with consumer prices rising by 2.6% in 2026, slightly down from 2.8% in September 2025 [10][11]

Summary of FOMC Minutes Industry Overview - The document pertains to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and its monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rates and inflation expectations. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Interest Rate Decisions**: - Most participants supported lowering the fed funds rate in December due to increased downside risks to the labor market and lower or unchanged upside risks to inflation. A few participants had a finely balanced view on this decision, while some preferred to keep the rate unchanged due to concerns about stalled inflation progress [2][3][4] 2. **Inflation and Employment Risks**: - Participants generally believed that upside risks to inflation remained elevated, while downside risks to employment had increased since mid-2025. Most participants thought further rate cuts would be appropriate over time if inflation slowed as expected [3][4] 3. **Labor Market Outlook**: - The labor market was expected to stabilize under appropriate monetary policy, but the outlook remained uncertain. Most participants saw risks to employment skewed to the downside, with rising unemployment among vulnerable groups and potential for higher layoffs [4] 4. **Inflation Projections**: - Participants expected inflation to remain somewhat elevated in the near term before gradually declining to the Fed's 2% target. Many anticipated that tariff pressures on core goods inflation would subside, and a majority expected disinflation in housing services [8] 5. **GDP Growth Forecasts**: - The Fed staff projected moderately faster GDP growth through 2028 compared to previous forecasts, reflecting easier financial conditions and stronger potential output growth. The inflation forecast was slightly lower for 2025 and 2026, but risks to growth and labor market forecasts were skewed to the downside [8] 6. **Reserve Management Purchases**: - The FOMC decided to start reserve management purchases (RMPs) at the December meeting, with participants generally supporting flexibility in adjusting the size and timing of RMPs to accommodate demand for Fed liabilities. RMPs were emphasized as a tool for interest rate control and market functioning [9] Other Important Content - The document includes various disclosures and regulatory information related to Goldman Sachs and its analysts, emphasizing the importance of considering this report as one factor in investment decisions [6][10][11][12][20]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is contemplating a lawsuit against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, accusing him of "gross incompetence" related to the Federal Reserve's renovation project, which he claims is significantly over budget [1][4][7]. Group 1: Lawsuit Consideration - Trump stated he is considering a lawsuit against Powell for "gross incompetence" due to the renovation costs of the Fed headquarters, which he claims are excessive [1][4]. - The lawsuit would be an unusual move, as it involves a president suing one of his own appointees, and the legal basis for such a lawsuit is unclear [7]. Group 2: Renovation Costs - Trump asserted that the renovation project is projected to cost over $4 billion, which he deems excessive compared to other construction projects [2][4]. - A spokesperson for the Federal Reserve indicated that the actual budget for the renovation is approximately $2.5 billion, contradicting Trump's claims [4]. Group 3: Interest Rates and Monetary Policy - Trump has been critical of Powell for not reducing interest rates quickly enough, despite the Federal Reserve's three quarter-point rate cuts in 2023, lowering the target rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% [5]. - Trump has previously expressed that he would not fire Powell as long as interest rates were being cut, indicating the importance of monetary policy to his administration [5][10]. Group 4: Historical Context and Comparisons - Trump compared the Fed renovation costs to the new White House ballroom, claiming his project is more cost-effective and ahead of schedule [6]. - Powell defended the renovation project, stating it involves significant historical buildings and is large in scope, which justifies the costs [6].

Core Viewpoint - The US economy demonstrated resilience with a GDP growth rate of 4.3% in the third quarter, marking the fastest pace in approximately two years [1] Economic Performance - The GDP growth of 4.3% indicates a strong economic performance, driven by robust household spending [1]

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Economic Growth - US gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 4.3% in the third quarter, driven by strong consumer spending [1][2] - This growth rate was 0.5 percentage points higher than the previous quarter and a full percentage point above economists' forecasts [2] Consumer Spending - Consumer spending increased at a 3.5% annualized pace in the third quarter, marking a one-point rise from the second quarter and the highest rate since the last quarter of 2024 [4] - The consumer sector accounts for approximately 70% of the US economy, highlighting its critical role in economic performance [4] Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy - Inflation rose to an annualized rate of 2.9% in the third quarter, up from 2.6% in the second quarter, exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target [3] - The strong GDP growth may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain steady interest rates while focusing on controlling inflation [3][5] Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current economic conditions represent a "Goldilocks scenario" with above-potential growth and declining but elevated inflation [5] - Predictions indicate that the Federal Reserve may adopt a dovish stance, with Bank of America and Goldman Sachs forecasting two rate cuts in the upcoming year [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Japan's Economic Outlook - **Focus**: Economic growth, inflation, monetary policy, and fiscal policy for 2026 Core Insights and Arguments 1. **GDP Growth**: Japan's GDP is expected to grow at +1.0% in 2026, a slight decrease from +1.3% in 2025, indicating resilience despite challenges [1][4] 2. **Inflation Trends**: Headline inflation is projected to temporarily fall below 2%, with strong wage growth expected to ease consumer purchasing power headwinds [1][4] 3. **Monetary Policy**: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is anticipated to implement semiannual rate hikes, with the terminal rate expected to reach +1.5% by 2027 [5][6] 4. **Fiscal Policy Constraints**: Fiscal leeway is limited due to high government debt/GDP ratio and the JGB market's exit from quantitative easing, leading to moderate fiscal impulses [1][4][13] 5. **Wage Growth**: A base pay increase of approximately 3.3% is expected in spring wage negotiations, supported by labor shortages and corporate profits [20] 6. **Consumer Spending**: Real wage growth is expected to turn positive YoY early in 2026, which should support consumer spending growth [38][39] 7. **Inflation Forecast**: Core CPI is projected to decelerate to +1.7% in 2026 from +3.1% in 2025, influenced by government anti-inflation measures [22][23] 8. **Investment Trends**: Companies are increasingly investing in differentiating and developing value-added products to manage rising costs [44] Additional Important Points 1. **FX Risks**: Foreign exchange movements pose significant risks to the economic outlook, potentially affecting the timing of rate hikes [5][8] 2. **Public Sector Price Hikes**: The government is considering public sector price adjustments in line with inflation, which may impact CPI [25][26] 3. **Defense Spending**: PM Takaichi's administration is expected to increase defense spending, which may affect fiscal policy and market confidence [18] 4. **Tourism Risks**: Recent tensions with China could negatively impact services exports, particularly tourism, which is a significant contributor to GDP [56] 5. **Long-term Growth Potential**: The potential growth rate may improve due to structural reforms and investments under the Takaichi administration [10][17] This summary encapsulates the key insights and arguments presented in the conference call regarding Japan's economic outlook for 2026, highlighting growth expectations, inflation trends, monetary and fiscal policies, and potential risks.