Core Insights - The US exchange-traded fund (ETF) industry is poised for a record-breaking year in 2025, with significant increases in flows, launches, and trading volume [1][2] Industry Performance - US-listed ETFs have attracted $1.4 trillion in inflows in 2025, surpassing the previous annual record set in 2024 [2] - More than 1,000 new ETF products have been launched this year, marking an unprecedented level of new entries into the market [2] - Trading volume in the ETF market has reached a new yearly high, with all three metrics (inflows, launches, and trading volume) hitting records in the same year for the first time since 2021 [2] Market Dynamics - The S&P 500 has experienced a third consecutive year of double-digit gains, contributing to the growth of the ETF market, despite recent trading volatility [5] - The ETF market has seen an influx of approximately $5 billion per day in new cash, primarily driven by low-cost, index-tracking funds [4] - Actively managed products, including leveraged single-stock ETFs, have gained traction, accounting for over 30% of overall industry inflows and about 84% of new launches [4] Future Outlook - Analysts express caution regarding the sustainability of the current ETF boom, suggesting potential market corrections or challenges in 2026 due to economic uncertainties [3][5] - Concerns have been raised about the impact of high capital expenditures on artificial intelligence by tech companies and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies on future ETF growth [5]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion centers around the potential actions of the Federal Reserve in 2026, particularly regarding interest rate cuts and the implications of inflation data and economic growth driven by AI investments [1][2][3]. Economic Indicators - Recent inflation numbers are described as "dodgy" and incomplete, suggesting that business leaders may increase prices more aggressively in the coming year [2]. - The impact of AI capital expenditure (capex) investments is noted as a significant contributor to GDP growth [2]. Federal Reserve's Position - There is no urgency for the Fed to commit to rate cuts until more comprehensive data is available, as the current leadership under Chairman Powell is not predisposed to immediate action [3][4]. - The Fed's recent rate cuts are acknowledged as a positive step, and there is a belief that the Fed should not be unfairly blamed for economic challenges [7][8]. Market Dynamics - The yield curve is steepening, and the 10-year Treasury yield remains above 4%, indicating market concerns about government fiscal management [8]. - The idea of allowing the economy to "run hot" is discussed, suggesting that productivity gains from AI could mitigate inflation risks [9]. Employment and Economic Balance - The Fed's dual mandate of managing inflation and unemployment is highlighted as a challenging balancing act, especially with reports of weak hiring numbers [11][12].

Market Overview - Markets experienced moderate gains due to softer inflation data and stable unemployment, which renewed investor confidence in a potential 2026 rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 advanced, supported by broad-based sector strength, while the Nasdaq Composite rebounded, led by a tech recovery [2] Earnings Highlights - Micron Technology Inc. exceeded expectations and raised its guidance, leading to a rally in AI-related semiconductor stocks [3] - Nike Inc. shares declined after the company expressed caution regarding global demand, particularly in China, raising concerns about consumer strength [3] - FedEx Corp. reported solid quarterly results, enhancing confidence in global shipping demand, while Carnival Corp. provided optimistic forward guidance, indicating strong consumer appetite for travel [4] Sector Performance - Cyclical and dividend-paying stocks gained traction as portfolio managers positioned for a potentially lower-rate environment in 2026 [3] - Transportation and travel sectors showed resilience, with FedEx and Carnival Corp. signaling robust demand and strong bookings [4] Notable Stock Movements - Cannabis stocks, including Tilray Brands Inc. and Canopy Growth Corp., rallied following reports of potential rescheduling of marijuana by President Trump, which could ease tax burdens [6] - Carnival Corporation reported record earnings and reinstated its quarterly dividend, forecasting adjusted net income of about $3.5 billion for 2026, reflecting strong demand [7] - Caterpillar Inc. emerged as the top-performing Dow stock in 2025, rising over 62% and adding approximately $1.7 billion in value to significant stakeholders [8] Market Sentiment - JPMorgan Chase indicated that the generative-AI narrative has peaked, suggesting that 2026 will focus more on profits rather than hype, with investors likely to favor companies demonstrating clear ROI [9] - Meta Platforms Inc. is noted as the most underperforming stock among the Magnificent 7, trading about 19% below its 52-week high, with potential for a year-end rebound [10][11] - Novo Nordisk A/S faced challenges as Eli Lilly and Co. gained market share in the weight-loss drug sector, leading to a decline in Novo's stock [12]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has forecasted that gold prices will rise to approximately $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, indicating a 13% increase from current spot prices of $4,323.71 per ounce [2]. Group 1: Central Bank Demand - Central banks have transitioned from occasional gold buyers during crises to consistent and strategic purchasers as part of their long-term reserve strategies [5][6]. - In Q1 2025, central banks acquired a net total of 244 tonnes of gold, followed by 166 tonnes in Q2 and a significant increase to 220 tonnes in Q3 [7]. - In October 2025 alone, central banks recorded 53 tonnes of net gold buying [8]. Group 2: Interest Rates Impact - Falling interest rates are reshaping investor perceptions of gold, which traditionally struggles when yields are high due to its lack of income generation [9]. - The recent Federal Reserve rate cut on December 10, 2025, lowered the target range to 3.50% to 3.75%, further supporting gold's appeal as a store of value [10].

Economic Outlook - The market is focused on the implications of the new Fed chair on interest rates, particularly the challenge of convincing other FOMC members to support rate cuts [2][3] - There are expectations of economic growth accelerating due to various tailwinds, including the "one big beautiful bill" and favorable oil prices [4][5] - Inflation is currently around 3%, and there are concerns about maintaining interest rates in a growing economy [6] Employment Trends - Job growth has slowed significantly, with net immigration into the US dropping from around 3 million annually to a projected 500,000 over the next two years [8] - The new equilibrium rate for non-farm payrolls has decreased from 200,000 to 30,000 jobs created monthly due to reduced immigration [9] Risks to Growth - Stagflation is identified as a significant risk, particularly if AI does not meet growth expectations [10] - The construction of data centers has contributed positively to GDP growth, but a slowdown in capital expenditures could pose risks [11] - Inflation remains a complex issue, with various forces at play, and there are expectations of elevated inflation risks in the coming months [12][14] FOMC Considerations - The FOMC is divided on the approach to interest rates, balancing a weaker labor market against persistent inflation risks [15]

Market Overview - Australian shares have increased by +0.5% in futures, marking the first rise this week, influenced by positive trends in Wall Street [1] - The U.S. economic data showed core consumer prices rising by 2.6% in November, while overall CPI increased by 2.7%, impacting Federal Reserve's rate cut plans [2] U.S. Market Performance - The Dow Jones rose by +0.1%, the S&P 500 increased by +0.8%, and the Nasdaq composite surged by +1.4%, breaking a four-day losing streak [3] Central Bank Actions - Japan's central bank is expected to raise rates to 0.75%, contrasting with the Federal Reserve's easing plans, which may influence the Reserve Bank of Australia [4] Company News - Meg O'Neill has been appointed as the first female CEO of BP, leaving her position at Woodside Energy, which saw its shares drop by -2.7% following the announcement [5] - ANZ Group may retain executive pay despite shareholder dissatisfaction over compliance failures, indicating potential negotiations for a middle ground [6] - Boss Energy's shares plummeted by -24% after a negative update on uranium extraction, indicating lower grade and more challenging extraction processes [7] - Amaero Ltd secured a $4.6 million order for refractory powder from Titomic as part of a five-year partnership, with shipments expected in Q3 and Q4 FY26 [7] Commodity Prices - The Australian dollar is trading at 66.1 U.S. cents - Iron Ore prices increased by +1.3% to $105 per tonne, while Brent Crude remained stable at $59.72 per barrel, and Gold is priced at $4,333 per ounce [9]

Core Insights - Bitcoin investors are preparing for "Witching Friday" on December 18, which could lead to significant market volatility due to the expiration of approximately $23 billion in options contracts on Deribit, the largest Bitcoin exchange [1]. Group 1: Understanding "Witching Friday" - "Witching Friday," also known as "triple witching," occurs on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December, when stock index futures, stock index options, and stock options expire simultaneously, often resulting in increased market volatility [2]. - The expiration of these contracts typically generates higher trading activity and larger price swings, as it triggers buying or selling of the underlying securities [3]. Group 2: Current Market Conditions - Leading up to "Witching Friday," Bitcoin has been experiencing a decline, trading down nearly 1% to $85,184, influenced by the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut and uncertainty regarding the macroeconomic environment, including potential rate hikes from the Bank of Japan and concerns over U.S. inflation in 2026 [4][5]. - Other cryptocurrencies are also affected, with XRP falling nearly 2% to around $1.82, while Ethereum remains stable at $2,802 [5].

Economic Indicators - The delayed CPI report showed headline inflation at 2.7% year-over-year, better than the expected 3.1% and the Cleveland Fed's 3% [2][3] - Core CPI came in at 2.6% year-over-year, also below the street's expectations of 3% [3] - Shelter costs remained around 3% year-over-year, while medical care increased by 2.9%, contributing to the CPI adjustments [4] Market Reactions - The better-than-expected CPI results fueled a market rally, impacting both equities and treasuries, with bond yields moving lower [6][7] - Jobless claims were reported at 224,000, aligning with expectations, indicating a stabilizing labor market [9][11] Cryptocurrency Insights - Bitcoin saw a 2.8% increase, indicating a risk-on sentiment in the market, although it remains below the 90,000 level [13][16] - Technical indicators suggest a potential consolidation phase for Bitcoin, with key support around 85,000 [14][16] Energy Market Overview - Crude oil prices rose approximately 8%, influenced by geopolitical tensions and market speculation regarding potential conflicts [19][24] - Despite the increase, there are concerns about a supply glut and lackluster gasoline demand in the U.S. [21][23]

Core Insights - The November inflation data in the U.S. significantly underperformed market expectations, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 2.7% year-on-year, compared to the anticipated 3.1% [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 2.6%, down from 3.0% in September, indicating a further easing of inflationary pressures [1] - Financial markets reacted positively, with major indices rising, U.S. Treasury yields declining, and the dollar index weakening [1] Group 1: Economic Analysis - Brian Jacobsen from Annex Wealth Management noted that housing inflation, a major component of CPI, has significantly slowed down, suggesting that previous inflation drivers are no longer central to current inflation [2] - Peter Cardillo from Spartan Capital Securities highlighted that the drop in core inflation to 2.6% and overall inflation to 2.7% is favorable for both the Federal Reserve and financial markets, potentially paving the way for multiple rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026 if the trend continues [2] - Jan Nevruzi from TD Securities emphasized that the inflation data fell below nearly all predictions, indicating a clear dovish trend despite potential technical issues in data collection [2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Kay Haigh from Goldman Sachs Asset Management cautioned against overinterpreting the data due to the noise from missing October data, suggesting that the Fed will likely focus on the December CPI data for clearer signals [3] - Seema Shah from Principal Global Investors stated that the significant drop in November inflation supports dovish views within the Fed, increasing the likelihood of rate cuts occurring earlier than expected in 2026 [3] - Jamie Cox from Harris Financial Group remarked that the inflation impact from tariffs has largely dissipated, making the case for further rate cuts clearer as the rationale for maintaining restrictive monetary policy weakens [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Chris Zaccarelli from Northlight Asset Management pointed out that there are currently no signs of sustained high inflation, alleviating concerns within the Fed about the risks of renewed inflation from continued rate cuts [4] - Zaccarelli also suggested that if dovish perspectives prevail, further monetary easing could support stock market performance, with potential for continued market gains as economic growth, corporate earnings improve, and inflation remains controlled [4]

HDFC Bank FD rates: India's largest private sector institutional lender, HDFC Bank, has decided to revise its fixed deposit interest rates, effective from 17 December 2025, after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its benchmark interest rate for the Indian economy to 5.25%, compared to its earlier 5.50% levels earlier this month.Mint reported earlier that the RBI announced a 25-basis-point rate cut to 5.25% citing that India is in a “rare goldilocks period” where the growth of the nation remains strong, an ...