Treasury yields a little higher this morning after dipping post Fed. They were up, they were down, back up again to 416 for the 10 year, the two years at 353. And joining us right now with his insights on the bond market and the Fed's decision on rates this week is Mark Cabana.He's head of US rate strategy at Bank of America Securities. And Mark, big week. >> It was >> heard a lot from the Fed.We're still trying to figure out what comes next. Um it's a split Fed at this point and we're going to probably hea ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is currently experiencing a divided stance among its members regarding interest rates, influenced by upcoming economic data and the recent government shutdown that has delayed critical reports [2][3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - The Fed is facing challenges in providing clear guidance due to a backlog of economic data caused by the government shutdown, with significant reports on jobs, CPI, and retail sales expected soon [4][5]. - There is a concern about the unemployment rate, which is projected to rise to 4.5%, and any increase beyond that could shift the Fed's tone towards a more cautious approach [6][7]. - The market currently anticipates that the Fed has concluded its rate hikes, but if unemployment continues to rise, the Fed may need to adjust its strategy, potentially leading to rate cuts [7][8]. Group 2: Economic Data and Projections - The upcoming economic data, particularly the unemployment rate, is critical for the Fed's decision-making process, as hiring has slowed and the labor market remains a concern [5][6]. - The Fed's projections indicate a cautious outlook, with expectations that inflation will decrease as tariff effects dissipate, which could allow for future rate cuts [9][10]. Group 3: Treasury and Market Dynamics - The Fed's recent actions, including large-scale asset purchases, are aimed at stabilizing money market rates rather than signaling a shift towards quantitative easing [13][15]. - The Treasury's strategy of issuing more short-term T-bills while reducing long-term issuance is seen as a way to manage duration risk in the market, which aligns with the Fed's objectives [16][18]. - The combination of actions from both the Fed and the Treasury is expected to ease financial conditions, although the Fed maintains that its actions are independent of broader asset price movements [19][20].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve plans to start purchasing short-term US Treasury bills on December 12, totaling around $40 billion a month, to boost liquidity in markets and the banking sector [2][5] - The Fed's reserve balances currently stand at approximately $2.8 trillion, indicating a significant reliance on central bank support [3][5] - Michael Burry views the Fed's actions as a sign of systemic weakness in the US banking system, suggesting that the banks are becoming increasingly fragile [4][6] Group 2 - The purchase of short-term Treasurys marks the first meaningful expansion of the Fed's balance sheet since the end of its quantitative easing program in 2022 [6] - Burry expresses concern that the need for over $3 trillion in reserves from the Fed indicates a lack of strength in the banking system [5][6] - Following the Fed's announcement, stock markets surged, driven by optimism regarding the central bank's plans [5]

Monetary Policy & Market Impact - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the Federal Funds rate down to 350-375% [2] - The Federal Reserve will restart balance sheet expansion with $40 billion in monthly Treasury bill buys, signaling a return to quantitative easing (QE) [3] - QE is expected to push bond yields down, encouraging investors to move into riskier assets, making borrowing cheaper and boosting confidence across financial markets [7] - Historically, QE has inflated financial assets, potentially benefiting stocks, Bitcoin, digital assets, and real estate [8][12] - The US dollar is expected to weaken with QE, while short-term cash-like investments may become less attractive [10] Economic Outlook & Risks - Multiple deflationary forces, including AI, robotics, tariffs, and increased deportations, could challenge the Fed's monetary policy [6] - Despite rate cuts and QE, the housing market remains constrained by low supply and existing low-rate mortgages [23] - Treasury Secretary confirmed approximately $100-150 billion in tax refunds are expected in 2026, potentially boosting GDP growth [16][20] Housing Market Analysis - The housing market is described as "broken" due to high prices and affordability issues [21] - Deregulation at the local level to allow more housing construction is suggested as a solution to the housing shortage [27]

Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates today and the money printer is back, baby. The government is going to start buying treasuries to the tune of $40 billion of US treasuries starting on December 12th and they're going to execute that $40 billion of purchases in 30 days. QE is back and the asset prices in the market, they're going to love this.So, we got rates coming down. We got the government back with a persistent bid and QE is on again. And Jerome Powell, he may be kicking ...

From the Desk of Anthony Pompliano0:00 QE Is Back And Asset Prices Are Going Higher4:42 Scott Bessent Confirms Tax Refunds Coming in 20266:50 Jerome Powell Comments On How To Fix HousingEnjoy! https://t.co/k1ba3uZaPY ...

Group 1: Workflow Automation and Cost Savings - Clarifire's blog discusses how servicers are modernizing processes through workflow automation, highlighting examples like one-click trial modification letters and automated GSE exception handling, which lead to operational improvements [1] - The average Encompass customer is seeing a financial benefit of $1,056 per loan due to innovative workflows and automation, indicating significant ROI for lenders [4] Group 2: UAD 3.6 Preparation - Class Valuation emphasizes the importance of deep learning for lenders and appraisers in preparing for UAD 3.6, providing resources and a webinar series to facilitate understanding of the new format [2] Group 3: FICO Score 10T Integration - MCT and FICO have expanded their collaboration to integrate FICO Score 10T into MCT's software suite, enhancing credit intelligence for MSR portfolio managers and investors, and improving asset quality analysis [3] Group 4: Market Trends and Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has cut the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent, indicating a neutral policy stance with limited room for further reductions [8] - The Fed raised its 2026 GDP outlook and trimmed inflation forecasts, suggesting confidence in controlling inflation while planning to buy $40 billion in Treasury bills to ease liquidity strains [9] Group 5: Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Insights - Loan balance pools are favored in MBS structuring for their predictability in prepayment behavior, with larger-balance UMBS 30-year pools currently paying the slowest due to refinancing challenges [10] - New loan-balance spec pools totaling $170.7 billion have entered the market, providing liquidity, while servicers like Rocket and AmeriHome are key determinants of prepayment outcomes [11][12]

QE is back.Cut rates. Print money.Assets go HIGHER. https://t.co/sFwCr1vde8 ...

Let's bring in Kevin Green, senior markets correspondent right away to help set up the action today. All right, KG, I feel like today's futures action doesn't really tell the tale of the tape um given the context of the Fed. So, let's get into it. Uh let's talk Fed first.Uh you know, the decision was not a surprise, but after that, it's about what the Fed chair says. What are some of your takeaways. Yeah.So, obviously we saw uh the Fed actually cut by 25 basis points in December. It's going to be the last c ...

QE starts again tomorrow.Prepare accordingly. ...