Geopolitics & Technology - US is exploring ways to enhance location-tracking capabilities in chips [1] - Washington aims to restrict the flow of semiconductors, particularly those from companies like Nvidia, to China [1]

Core Insights - The analyst emphasizes a tech-focused approach to investment research, leveraging 25 years of experience in IT and investment to provide unique insights [1] - The analyst's background includes significant experience in virtualization, cloud technologies, and telecommunications, which informs their investment strategies [1] - The research covers various themes such as automated supply chains, Generative AI, telecommunications capital expenditures, and the deflationary nature of software and semiconductors [1] Investment Philosophy - The analyst adopts a moderate stance, focusing on capital preservation strategies, particularly in light of past losses during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) [1] - The investment journey began with mutual and indexed funds, transitioning to individual stocks, highlighting a learning curve from previous investment mistakes [1] - The analyst values unique perspectives and insights from platforms like Seeking Alpha, which enhance the investment decision-making process [1] Professional Background - The analyst has held roles as an implementer, team leader, and project lead in the IT sector, particularly within telecommunications [1] - In addition to tech investments, the analyst also covers biotech with a focus on the intersection of technology and biology [1] - The analyst engages in non-profit work, contributing to community support and peer reviews in enterprise technology [1]

Investment Focus - SOSV invests in plasma technology with broad applications [1] Industry Applications - Plasma technology is expected to revolutionize semiconductors [1] - Plasma technology is expected to revolutionize spacecraft [1]

The Japanese market has many positive factors, such as a recuperating economy after decades of disinflation and a high-tech sector that is increasingly participating as key suppliers to automation, AI, semiconductors, etc. It is also a relatively cheap market at 1.5x PEG. However, inExperience is difficult to learn. After 30 plus years of critically analyzing the nuts and bolts of businesses as diverse as airlines, oil, retail, mining to fintech and ecommerce plus the macro, monetary and political drivers. ...

Trade Negotiations & Tariffs - The EU aims to secure a trade deal with the US before August 1st, emphasizing that free trade benefits both parties [1][4] - The EU is prepared to retaliate if a deal isn't reached, highlighting its position as a major trade bloc [4][5] - The Netherlands advocates for free trade and fiscal consolidation instead of tariffs, viewing tariffs as a tax on American consumers that increases inflation [8] - Concerns exist in Europe regarding increased capacity from trade barriers between the US and China, threatening European competitiveness [9] - Trade wars are not in anyone's interest, exemplified by concerns over Chinese product dumping in Europe and potential surplus issues for the US [10] - The Netherlands is against tariffs on semiconductors and emphasizes the importance of free trade for the semiconductor industry [6][7][8] EU Budget & Fiscal Policy - The proposed EU budget of €2 trillion is considered too high and "dead on arrival" by the Netherlands, which advocates for a smaller budget and reprioritization [11][12] - The Netherlands believes the focus should be on spending less rather than increasing taxes, especially corporate taxes [12][13][14] - The Netherlands prioritizes security and innovation within the EU budget [15] Support for Ukraine - The EU needs to continue supporting Ukraine through military, budgetary, and sanction measures against Russia [16] - Europe should pay for weapons to Ukraine [18] Multilateralism & Free Trade - Participants at the G20 meetings are vocal about the importance of free trade and reducing tariffs [20]

Market Overview & Trends - Small cap market shows signs of life with a good month-to-date performance versus large caps [2] - The small cap market is considered extraordinarily cheap with a good underlying economic environment [3] - Expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in the back half of the year could act as a tailwind [3] - M&A activity has been quiet this year but backlogs are building, expected to materialize in the second half of the year [4] - Consumer spending has been strong, particularly on air travel, but a handoff to other sectors like tech, software, and semiconductors is anticipated [5][6] - Aerospace and defense sectors are performing well, with expectations of more IPO activity in the space sector [7] Company Specific Opportunities - Cheesecake Factory is highlighted as a Gen Z hotspot with good traffic trends expected throughout the summer [8] - Piper is expected to be an M&A story, benefiting from general capital markets recovery and a solid municipal bond business [9] - Site Time is mentioned as a company benefiting from increased connectivity demands within data centers, driven by AI development [15] Risk Factors & Mitigation - Companies have largely adjusted to high interest rates, which have been in place for almost 3 years [10] - Domestic focus of small caps is seen as an advantage, as companies have tightened supply chains and focused on the US market after previous tariff challenges [12][13] - Prior adjustments to semiconductor sourcing mitigate concerns about current tariffs, though future tariffs could potentially cap growth [17][18]

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in September, which could favor risky assets like equities [1] - President Trump is urging Fed Chairman Powell to resign, potentially leading to a more dovish replacement [1] Analyst Background - The analyst has 10 years of experience in investment banking and a background in IT, specifically as the Director of Keylogin InfoTech [1] - The analyst emphasizes a moderate approach to investing, focusing on capital preservation and informed decision-making based on personal experience [1] Investment Themes - The analyst covers various themes including automated supply chains, Generative AI, telcos Capex, the deflationary nature of software, and semiconductors [1] - There is a focus on "techbio" in the biotech sector, indicating a blend of technology and biotechnology insights [1]

Core Insights - Ucore Rare Metals Inc. has initiated a formal project kick-off meeting with the US Department of Defense regarding an USD$18.4 million Phase 2 Award aimed at constructing a commercial-scale RapidSX™ machine in Louisiana for heavy rare earth elements [1][2][3] Phase 1 and Phase 2 Awards - The Phase 2 Award supplements a previously announced USD$4 million Phase 1 Award, which demonstrated the efficacy of RapidSX™ in processing rare earths necessary for permanent magnets, including dysprosium [2][4] - The Phase 1 Award has resulted in successful separation of critical heavy rare earth elements, leading to a payment of USD$1.1 million, bringing total payments for Phase 1 to USD$3.35 million [5][7] Importance of Heavy Rare Earth Elements (HREEs) - HREEs are essential for US national security, playing a crucial role in advanced military technologies such as precision-guided missiles and F-35 jet engines, as well as in electric vehicles and renewable energy [3][9] - Ucore's partnership with the DOD aims to mitigate vulnerabilities in the supply chain, particularly as China restricts exports of these materials [3][9] Project Milestones and Deliverables - The project will focus on constructing a commercial-scale RapidSX™ machine, with milestones including commissioning and achieving early production readiness of rare earth products [4][5] - Detailed design and engineering work is ongoing at Ucore's facilities in Kingston, Ontario, and Alexandria, Louisiana [6] Strategic Initiatives and Future Plans - Ucore supports the DOD's initiatives to strengthen the domestic rare earth supply chain, including pricing floors and offtake commitments to enhance industry stability [9] - The company plans to disrupt China's control over the North American REE supply chain through the development of processing facilities in Louisiana and Alaska, as well as the Bokan-Dotson Ridge project in Alaska [11]

Group 1 - ACM Research (NASDAQ: ACMR) is strategically positioned in the semiconductor capital equipment sector, generating over 99% of its revenue from China in 2024 [1] - The company specializes in advanced wafer-cleaning and electroplating technologies, which are critical for semiconductor manufacturing [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the growing importance of companies like ACMR in the semiconductor industry, particularly in the context of increasing demand for advanced manufacturing processes [1]

Market Dynamics & Geopolitics - US government aims to restrict China's access to advanced technology due to national security concerns, signaling strong demand control [2] - Despite restrictions, NVIDIA desires to continue selling into the Chinese market long term [1] - US has been preparing for supply chain localization for years, evidenced by Taiwan Semiconductor's Arizona fab [4] - Concerns exist regarding the impact on companies exposed to potential restrictions, particularly American companies [5] NVIDIA's Position & Demand - Industry anticipates NVIDIA will maintain its leading position, with no demand issues expected through 2025 [9] - Demand for AI chips is strong, potentially reaching $500 billion to $700 billion by the end of the decade or higher [6] - The technology is primarily enterprise and sovereign AI focused, reducing reliance on China compared to consumer technologies [7] Supply Chain & Alternatives - The industry is exploring hardware alternatives beyond NVIDIA, including companies involved in custom silicon and inference, such as Stellar Labs [11] - Potential impacts on cloud providers like Oracle, which are building out cloud offerings in regions like Malaysia, need consideration due to GPU access limitations [10] Demand Signals - Key demand signals are tracked through GPU generation product roadmaps, AI, video, and supply chain partners [9]