So what did you make of the quarterpoint cut and also some of the commentary from J Pal uh just talking about the dispersion the summary of economic projections and also our Steve Leeman asked a great question are we on a path for cuts and JP pal came back and said well we're more data dependent something he obviously has said in previous meetings >> well the meeting turned out to be what most of us expected to have happen the 25 basis point cut >> I think what was would have been more problematic was we di ...

From @WSJopinion: If the White House doesn’t do a better job of balancing border security and economic growth, things could get a lot worse before they improve, writes @jasonrileywsj https://t.co/xfJfSy99pj ...

Market Outlook & IPOs - The IPO market is performing well and considered healthy, avoiding the dynamics seen in 2021 [1][2] - A good IPO market anticipates Federal Reserve easing [2] - The market anticipates the Fed will cut rates by at least 25 basis points [3] Federal Reserve Policy - The market might be disappointed by the lack of clear signals from the Fed regarding future rate cuts [4] - The speaker anticipates one more rate cut before year-end, but not as much as 75 basis points, due to factors like tariffs [5] - The Fed is expected to be data-driven and cautious in its approach [8] - The Fed chair is unlikely to signal a major easing cycle to continue fighting inflation [7] Economic Indicators - A 900,000 job readjustment signaled the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates [4] - Core goods deflation has reversed into modest inflation [6] - The current curve doesn't resemble that of last fall, which is reassuring [9] - Flattening of the yield curve (2s and 10s) is seen as beneficial [9] - The focus should shift to economic growth and avoiding a recession [11]

Tariffs and Supply Chain - Tariffs serve an important purpose in addressing fragile supply chains exposed during COVID-19, particularly for essential goods [4] - The US has made progress in bringing key parts of the supply chain back, incentivizing domestic manufacturing of critical components like chips [5][6] - Government intervention, such as providing capital to stimulate economic growth, should ensure sovereign protection and secure supply chains [9][10] Corporate Response to Tariffs - Companies are facing a conundrum with rising input costs due to tariffs and limited ability to raise prices for consumers [12] - Corporations are adapting to tariffs by becoming more efficient and reducing human capital [14] - Revenue for companies in Q2 increased by just over 6%, while earnings per share (EPS) increased by 118% [16] Labor Market Dynamics - The job market is weak despite a good economy and strong earnings, as companies are downsizing to offset increased input costs [17][18] - Companies are leveraging AI and natural attrition (80,000+ people turning 65 weekly) to reduce headcount [19][21] - Downsizing explains the conundrum of a weak jobs market despite efforts to bring jobs back to the US [26] Future Economic Outlook - A rebirth in jobs and manufacturing is hoped for, contingent on lower interest rates and a restart in housing [27] - Capital expenditure (capex) will be spent over several years (2026-2030), primarily on equipment rather than labor [28][29]

The ECB will cut interest rates two more times as economic growth is likely to remain lackluster, according to Amundi’s chief investment officer https://t.co/UttZnnYLAq ...

Ghanaian President John Mahama used his first press conference since his election to take a victory lap, celebrating faster growth, slower inflation and a stronger currency https://t.co/7NWo5eR0rl ...

On Wall Street, we've all been conditioned to believe that good news is bad news and vice versa. Maybe if the econom is too strong, we can expect the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, bad for growth. And if the economy is weak enough, the Fed will cut rates, good for growth, and the stock market.But sometimes bad news really is bad news, like the very weak employment numbers we saw this very morning. Something that shows the economy is producing far fewer jobs than expected. Like many others, I was ...

Economic Slowdown & Recession Concerns - The US economy is slowing down, though not yet in recession, with weak payroll prints attributed to both lack of demand and supply due to immigration crackdown [2][3] - Construction spending is down year-on-year, signaling potential recessionary pressures [4] - Rate cuts are unlikely to stimulate growth and may negatively impact retirees' interest income, potentially increasing uncertainty [5][6][7] Uncertainty & Policy Impact - Uncertainty, stemming from tariffs, immigration policies, and geopolitical factors, is acting as a significant drag on the economy, hindering business investment and hiring [8][9][10][11] - Businesses are hesitant to make decisions due to policy uncertainty, adopting a "wait and see" approach [11] - While tax cuts are beneficial for corporations, the unpredictable nature of tariffs creates challenges for long-term planning and investment in manufacturing [12][13] Trade & Tariffs - The industry emphasizes the need for clear and consistent trade rules, suggesting a long-term tariff regime established through Congress to provide businesses with certainty [14][15] - Tariffs are viewed as a tax on consumers, and their fluctuating nature makes it difficult for businesses to compete and plan investments [16] Market Outlook - The market's positive reaction is likely due to anticipation of rate cuts, but these cuts may not address the underlying economic issues [5][6] - Despite the challenges, the US economy has the potential for steady growth around 2%, but uncertainty is hindering progress [9]

Hungarian central bank governor Mihaly Varga said currency stability is key for slowing inflation and laying the groundwork for more robust economic growth https://t.co/yvj0ex4Tmv ...

ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said inflation is well under control and economic growth is in line with forecasts https://t.co/mrXk5BYvPK ...