Steve Leeman of course has that for us. Steve. >> Hey Scott.Yeah. Boston Fed President Susan Collins, a voter this year making some doish comments saying it's prudent to normalize policy a bit further. She's also uh saying that uh even if they uh cut a little bit more that the uh Fed will still be mildly restrictive.I'm just looking for these uh these notes here. Uh Scott, she goes on to say that she believes that inflation is a uh uh is is really a matter of tariffs and she sees growth remaining solid desp ...

Monetary Policy and Labor Market - The current economic situation requires a careful balance between monetary policy responses to inflation and employment, with a shift from a tight to a more neutral stance as conditions stabilize [1][2][3] - Recent data indicates a significant softening in the labor market, suggesting that risks related to inflation and employment are becoming more balanced [3][6] - The break-even employment growth rate has decreased considerably, with estimates potentially falling below zero, indicating challenges in the labor market [4][5][6] Economic Indicators and Data Monitoring - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring various labor market indicators, including state-level unemployment claims and private sector employment data, to gauge economic conditions [15][16] - The absence of timely government data could complicate the assessment of economic activity and labor market conditions, particularly for upcoming reports [17][20] - The Fed acknowledges the importance of alternative data sources but emphasizes that they should supplement, not replace, government data [16][17] Impact of AI and Technological Changes - The Federal Reserve is actively researching the implications of generative AI on productivity, labor markets, and economic stability, recognizing the early stages of understanding its full impact [21][23][24] - There are concerns about potential job losses and the need for greater education and skills to adapt to technological advancements, which the Fed cannot directly address [26][27] Interest Rates and Monetary Conditions - Current monetary conditions indicate abundant reserves, although there are signs of tightening in money market conditions, particularly in repo rates [29][30] - The Fed is committed to monitoring these conditions closely to ensure effective monetary policy implementation [29][30] Independence and Policy Decision-Making - The Federal Reserve emphasizes its commitment to maintaining independence in monetary policy decisions, focusing on data-driven approaches to serve the public interest [32][33] - Healthy debates within the FOMC are seen as essential for making informed decisions, especially in complex economic situations [36][39]

There really isn't a risk free path now, since it appears that inflation is continuing, is certainly is running above our target and appears to be continuing to increase quite gradually. But increase is still on the way up. So there's a risk there that that would that would lend to greater persistence.But now the labour market has demonstrated pretty significant downside risks as payroll jobs have declined. And you know, both the supply and demand for for labour has declined, declined quite sharply. So, you ...

There really isn't a risk free path now, since it appears that inflation is continuing, is certainly is running above our target and appears to be continuing to increase quite gradually. But increase is still on the way up. So there's a risk there that that would that would lend to greater persistence.But now the labour market has demonstrated pretty significant downside risks as payroll jobs have declined. And you know, both the supply and demand for for labour has declined, declined quite sharply. So, you ...

Monetary Policy Stance - The central bank's job on inflation is never done, implying a continuous monitoring and potential adjustment of monetary policy [1] - The central bank tamed inflation so far and is in a good place, but needs to anticipate any potential future events [1] - The central bank is deciding meeting by meeting and is data dependent, looking at models, empirical data, and applying judgment [3] - The central bank is trying to capture elements not easily captured by models [3] Uncertainty and Risk Factors - Uncertainty is a key factor that entrepreneurs, corporates, and the central bank must deal with [1] - Models cannot perfectly predict political development, geopolitical changes, and shifts in global order [2] - The central bank needs to understand how political development, geopolitical changes, and shifts in global order impact the world and monetary policy [2] Future Actions - The central bank cannot say how high the bar is for cutting interest rates or what would make them do that [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve may soon conclude its quantitative tightening (QT) efforts, which have been in place since 2022, as liquidity conditions in the financial system are being closely monitored [1][2]. Group 1: Quantitative Tightening (QT) Overview - QT aims to reduce the excessive liquidity added during the COVID-19 pandemic, with large-scale purchases of Treasury and mortgage bonds previously stabilizing markets [4]. - The Fed's balance sheet has decreased from around $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion since the initiation of QT, as bonds are allowed to mature without replacement [5]. - There are indications that liquidity conditions are tightening, evidenced by firming repo rates and temporary pressures on specific dates [3]. Group 2: Future Outlook and Monetary Policy - Powell indicated that the Fed's ample reserves regime has been effective for monetary policy implementation and financial stability [6]. - The extent to which the Fed can continue to shrink its holdings remains uncertain, but officials believe there is still sufficient liquidity to proceed with QT without disrupting money markets [5]. - Powell emphasized the importance of maintaining the Fed's interest-paying powers to ensure effective rate control and avoid significant market stress [6].

By Michael S. Derby (Reuters) -Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday the end of the central bank’s long-running effort to shrink the size of its holdings, widely known as quantitative tightening, or QT, may be coming into view. Given the central bank’s long-running goal of leaving enough liquidity in the financial system to allow for firm control of short-term rates and normal money market volatility, Powell said “we may approach that point in coming months, and we are closely monitoring a ...

Economic Resilience & Monetary Policy - European economies have shown surprising resilience in growth, inflation, and employment, exceeding initial expectations [1] - Monetary policy is considered to be in a good place, with inflation around 2% [4] - Interest rates are currently at 2%, and the central bank is prepared to respond to potential economic shocks [5] - The focus remains on medium-term inflation targets, with current readings looking positive [6] Trade & Tariffs - Europe's trade with the United States accounts for 17% of its total trade, making the US the largest partner [1][2] - Tariffs between the US and Europe have increased from 1.5% to 13%, impacting exporters, importers, and consumers [2] - The impact of tariffs is currently being absorbed roughly equally by exporters, importers, and consumers [3] - Increased trade between Europe and China has been observed, partly due to diversion of goods [18][19] Risks & Uncertainties - Uncertainty remains a key factor, requiring anticipation of political developments, geopolitical changes, and shifts in the global order [7] - Risks to economic growth are now more balanced, with some initial fears regarding tariffs and exchange rates not fully materializing [10][11] - Both upside and downside risks to inflation are being carefully monitored, with the current balance considered fairly even [12] - Trade tensions between the US and China, particularly regarding rare earth elements, have direct and indirect impacts on Europe [13][14][15] - Geopolitics is seen as a key driver of tariffs, rather than the other way around [23] US-Europe Relationship - A stable and predictable relationship between Europe and the United States is considered necessary, despite recent deterioration [24][26] - There is a hope for a settlement of the relationship based on trust, predictability, and reciprocated consideration [27]

Core Insights - The absence of official labor data due to the government shutdown has created uncertainty in the market, with private reports indicating a gradual deceleration in the labor market [1][5]. Labor Market Indicators - The ADP National Employment Report for September indicated a decline of 32,000 jobs, marking one of the weakest readings since the pandemic, released just as the government shutdown began [2]. - Revelio Labs' Public Labor Statistics reported a modest gain of 60,000 nonfarm jobs for September, while Indeed's job postings showed a sharp decline throughout the year, reinforcing the narrative of a cooling labor market [3]. - The Challenger Job Cuts Report revealed that 948,000 job cuts have been announced this year, the highest year-to-date total since 2020, with 299,000 cuts from the government sector [4]. Hiring Trends - Employers have announced plans to hire only 205,000 workers this year, the lowest year-to-date hiring figure since 2009, indicating a stagnant labor market [4]. - The combination of these private data sources suggests a weakening labor market, with hiring activity at some of the lowest levels seen since 2009 [5]. Implications for Monetary Policy - For the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), these figures provide justification for potential rate cuts to support employment, although this stance may change if inflation accelerates unexpectedly [5].

Economic Outlook - Thailand's consumer price index is projected to remain below 1% until early 2027 [1] - Monetary policy alone may be insufficient to address the low inflation issue in Thailand [1]