There was a time where a 0.2% percentage point surprise on CPI would send the markets into a tail spin because this is way above the target, isn't it. We're still above three and a half%. And I think that that's what the news is today is that we are close to this threshold of 4% which the Bank of England has cited as a level that households and businesses get a bit more sensitive to inflation.So I think what this does is it tells you that if you're going to get rate cuts, they're still going to be quite slo ...

Market & Tariff Impact - Market may be underestimating the impact of ongoing tariff disputes [1] - Average tariff for imported goods has likely increased to the mid-teens percentage range, but negotiations are ongoing [2] - Base case scenario anticipates tariffs settling around 12-13%, close to levels seen around April 9th [3] - Select international opportunities exist in EM (particularly India) due to less tariff exposure and growth, and Japan due to financials benefiting from higher rates and inflation [4] - Europe is experiencing earnings downgrades after a strong rally, suggesting a need for selectivity in international investments [5] Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - Deutsche Bank expects four rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (the Fed) over the next 11 months, with the first cut anticipated in the fourth quarter [6][7] - The US is currently facing dual deficits, with a budget deficit around 7% and a current account deficit around 5-6% [7] - Maintaining Fed independence is crucial to avoid foreign buyers questioning the US dollar and US dollar-denominated assets [8] - The president is expected to nominate a Fed chair in September, which will likely be the dominant narrative for the Fed in the coming months [8]

Fed Chair Nomination Context - Betting markets indicate a 34% chance that no Fed chair successor will be announced before December, while Powell's term ends in May 2026 [5] - Historically, the lead time between announcing a Fed chair successor and their assuming office is about 2 to 4 months [6] - Markets are forward-looking, so traders and investors will begin pricing in the newcomers policy leanings [7] Leading Candidates and Their Potential Impact - Christopher Waller is considered a favorite, with his remarks already impacting the 2-year Treasury yield, dropping 20 basis points after a speech [10][12] - A Waller Fed is expected to lead to lower short-term yields, a flatter yield curve, and a lighter dollar, potentially benefiting stocks and crypto [15][16] - Kevin Walsh is viewed as more hawkish, advocating for avoiding rate cuts until inflation is firmly on a sustained path back to target [21][23] - A Walsh chairmanship could lead to a stronger dollar, growth stocks down, and a scramble out of risk assets, with restrictive policy rates potentially weighing down crypto [26][27] - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant expects a rate cut by September and is implementing measures to keep long-term interest rates from rising, potentially creating a risk-on environment [30][36] - Kevin Hasset advocates for rate cuts to support GDP growth, potentially leading to a weaker dollar and a market-wide rally for stocks and crypto [40][41] Wild Card Candidates - David Malpass, a former World Bank president, argues the Fed is behind the curve on cutting interest rates [42][43] - Fed Governor Michelle Bowman has expressed support for a July rate cut if inflation stays subdued [44] Market Volatility - The announcement of the next Fed chair, or even the teasing of the decision, is expected to cause bursts of volatility [48]

And of course, if Fed share steps down, you can better believe that the person that is going to be put into that chair is going to be pretty much pro cut rates and cut rates fast. Uh, as a reminder, of course, the Fed chair is only one person. It is a governorship.Uh, there are other parts of uh of the board. So, it's not because just one person's out, but you can see how like the the chair would kind of dictate the uh the direction. Just take a look at Gary Gendzer.Regardless, this happens, there will be r ...

Market Trends & Analysis - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is potentially resigning, impacting market sentiment [1] - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a rally in Bitcoin and altcoins [1] Investment & Trading Strategies - Promotion of Dynamic Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) as an investment strategy [1] - Discussion of profit-taking strategies for new/early cryptocurrencies, including the Half & Half method [1] - Recommends diversification of crypto storage for security [1] - Advocates for a 5% allocation to "DEGEN PLAYS" (high-risk investments) [1] - Provides links to crypto exit strategies for 2024/2025 [1] Security & Risk Management - Highlights the importance of avoiding scams and verifying sources in the crypto space [1] - Warns against falling for AI scams [1] - Recommends using a StoneBook to securely store seeds and passwords [1] Tools & Resources - Promotion of Tangem cold storage wallet with a 10% discount using a promocode [1] - Offers a 10% discount on Into The Cryptoverse site for on-chain, macro & strategy analysis with code DAN10 [1] - Provides a 20% discount on CoinLedger crypto tax software with coupon code DANCRYPTO [1]

Group 1: Bitcoin Market Performance - Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of over $117,000 on July 11, 2025, driven by bullish momentum in risk assets and its correlation with tech stocks like NVIDIA, which recently achieved a $4 trillion valuation [1] - The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) has increased by 15% this year, with a 4.3% gain in the past month, benefiting from favorable policy signals and tightening supply [2] - Bitcoin's recent performance is seen as a pressure release rather than a full-scale bull run, maintaining a tight $10,000 range over the past two months before the breakout [3] Group 2: Regulatory Environment and Institutional Adoption - Bitcoin's breakout coincides with Congress's "Crypto Week," where key regulations, including the GENIUS Act for a federal stablecoin framework, will be debated [4] - Positive outcomes from regulatory discussions may enhance institutional inflows into Bitcoin, with shares of Circle CRCL rising over 500% since their IPO [5] - Corporate adoption of Bitcoin is expanding, with companies like GameStop and Goldman Sachs increasing their Bitcoin ETF holdings, enhancing institutional credibility [8] Group 3: Bitcoin as an Inflation Hedge - Bitcoin is viewed as a hedge against inflation due to its fixed supply cap of 21 million coins, which may help it retain value amid increasing fiat issuance and potential global inflation from tariffs [7] - Bitcoin has gained 26.4% this year, outperforming the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), which gained 7%, showcasing its strength amid market uncertainties [6] Group 4: Interest Rate Outlook - Potential rate cuts later this year could favor risk-on assets like Bitcoin, as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets [9][10] Group 5: Bitcoin Miners and AI Infrastructure - Bitcoin miners are pivoting to AI infrastructure, leveraging their data centers for more profitable ventures compared to traditional Bitcoin mining [12] - Companies like Bitfarms are well-positioned to meet the rising energy and space demands of AI computing, given their experience in building large facilities [13] Group 6: Investment Products for Risk-Averse Investors - New Bitcoin buffer ETFs have been launched to make Bitcoin more accessible to risk-averse investors, providing downside protection amid volatility [14][15]

are the rate cuts priced in ...

>> I'm really I'm really happy to be back. And I read all the notes that we're going to talk about today. And I think the thing that's fundamentally really important to understand the strategist has a very tricky job.They obviously can't see the future, and they have to think big and they have to think about or shall I. What are things look like, you know, within the next six months, how do we end the year. What are some of the stumbling blocks that we might need to get past.And then what is like the chrono ...

Market Sentiment - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve to rapidly lower interest rates [1] - Rate cuts are perceived as imminent [1]

Market Trends & Sentiment - The market is responding to momentum, led by mega-cap tech stocks [1] - Small caps outperformed, up over 1% [2] - Markets want to go higher in the absence of rockiness, with the VIX sub 16 [3] - The market got a charge from the Fed's potential rate cuts [5] - There's a good setup for the second half of the year with inflation coming down [7] - Retail investors are rushing into riskier areas like Bitcoin and Nvidia [8] Earnings & Growth - Q1 earnings were essentially a pass on uncertainty [2] - Growth is continuing to be strong, defying expectations of a fall [6] Investment Opportunities & Risks - There's still a lot of cash on the sidelines that could re-enter the market as shorter-term rates come down [7] - Nvidia's dominance in the AI space may be chipped away [10] - A company with 125% of sales from China saw its stock rise despite customer concentration risks and customers seeking alternative chip sources [9]