Core Insights - Deposit account rates are declining, but competitive returns on certificates of deposit (CDs) can still be locked in, with the best CDs offering rates above 4% [1] Group 1: Current CD Rates - The best short-term CDs (six to 12 months) currently offer rates around 4% to 4.5% APY, with Marcus by Goldman Sachs offering the highest rate of 4% APY for a 1-year term [2] - A minimum opening deposit of $500 is required for the highest CD rate [2] Group 2: Historical Trends - CD rates were relatively high in the early 2000s but began to decline due to economic slowdowns and Federal Reserve rate cuts, with average one-year CDs at around 1% APY by 2009 [3] - The trend of falling CD rates continued into the 2010s, with average rates for 6-month CDs dropping to about 0.1% APY by 2013 [4] - Between 2015 and 2018, CD rates improved slightly as the Fed increased rates, but the COVID-19 pandemic led to emergency rate cuts, causing new record lows for CD rates [5] Group 3: Recent Developments - Following the pandemic, inflation prompted the Fed to hike rates 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023, resulting in higher APYs on savings products, including CDs [6] - As of September 2024, the Fed began cutting the federal funds rate, leading to a steady decline in CD rates from their peak, although they remain high by historical standards [7] Group 4: Understanding CD Rates - Traditionally, longer-term CDs offer higher interest rates, but currently, the highest average CD rate is for a 12-month term, indicating a flattening or inversion of the yield curve [8] - Factors to consider when choosing a CD include goals for locking away funds, type of financial institution, account terms, and inflation [9]

The central bank was closely monitoring the appreciation of the euro, which could potentially reduce inflation across the bloc, the Governor of the Bank of France said. ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of ongoing inflation on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and suggests focusing on low-beta defensive stocks to navigate market volatility [2][3][10] Economic Context - Inflation has risen, with the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index increasing by 2.8% year-over-year in November, moving further away from the Federal Reserve's 2% target [6][8] - Personal income growth has slowed, with increases of 0.1% in October and 0.3% in November, below analysts' expectations [9] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to consider low-beta defensive stocks, particularly in the utility and consumer staples sectors, to mitigate market fluctuations [4][5] - Featured stocks include: - **Ameren Corp. (AEE)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 8.2%, Zacks Rank 2, beta of 0.58, dividend yield of 2.78% [12][13] - **Fortis, Inc. (FTS)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 4.2%, Zacks Rank 2, beta of 0.50, dividend yield of 3.46% [14][15] - **ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 11.8%, Zacks Rank 2, beta of 0.81, dividend yield of 3.47% [16] - **Hormel Foods Corp. (HRL)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 6.6%, Zacks Rank 2, beta of 0.33, dividend yield of 4.76% [17] - **J&J Snack Foods Corp. (JJSF)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 4.5%, Zacks Rank 2, beta of 0.34, dividend yield of 3.43% [18][19]

In the past two weeks, Rick Rieder’s odds on Polymarket of becoming the next Fed chair have surged from low single digits to nearly 50%, putting the veteran Wall Streeter far in the lead over second and third place candidates Kevin Warsh (29%) and Christopher Waller (6%). Rieder would bring a highly unusual background to the job. The current chief Jerome Powell is a former lawyer, private equity partner, and Treasury official, while his predecessors Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan were PhD economists (the ...

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that the current market dynamics have shifted from a stable global leadership era to a "Warring States" period, indicating that commodities, particularly gold and physical assets, are becoming more reliable investments [5][31]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Positioning - The CFTC data indicates that as of January 20, the net long position in COMEX gold increased by 1.9% to 433 tons, marking the highest level in 16 weeks, while the net long position in silver decreased by 25% to 1,761 tons, the lowest since February 2024 [3][8]. - The article highlights that the sentiment among speculators in the U.S. futures market is shifting, with an increase in short positions in silver, suggesting that investors believe silver prices are excessively high [8][12]. - Platinum's net long position decreased by 35% to 8 tons, indicating a similar trend to silver where long positions are being reduced [8][12]. Group 2: Price Trends and Historical Context - The article notes that gold prices have risen by 64.4% in 2025, despite a contraction in net long positions, reflecting strong physical demand outpacing futures market dynamics [16][18]. - The historical context is provided, stating that platinum is currently undervalued relative to silver, with the platinum-to-silver ratio at a historical low of 26.88 ounces of silver per ounce of platinum [30]. - The article also mentions that copper prices are expected to rise due to strong demand driven by technological advancements, despite being in a bear market historically [18][33]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - The article discusses the Federal Reserve's current stance, indicating a low probability of interest rate cuts in the near term, with only a 2.8% chance of a cut by January 28, 2026 [28]. - It emphasizes the uncertainty surrounding future monetary policy, particularly if inflation pressures resurface while the Fed begins to lower rates [36]. - The article concludes that the investment landscape will be volatile in the first half of 2026, with potential price fluctuations as the market awaits clearer guidance from the Federal Reserve [34].

Core Insights - The price of gold has reached historic highs, surpassing $5,100 an ounce and increasing by 18% in January alone, with silver also hitting a record $109 [2] - Gold ETFs have been among the top-performing investment strategies in 2025, with significant inflows from individual investors into the largest gold ETF, GLD, totaling $95 million this month, marking the largest increase since October 2025 [2] Market Dynamics - Speculative trading has contributed to the high price of gold, with momentum traders driving demand similar to the behavior seen in bitcoin markets [3] - Factors such as inflation, high central bank demand, and tariffs are also influencing the current gold boom [3] ETF Performance - Notable gold ETFs include the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) and iShares Gold Trust (IAU), both up 20% year-to-date, and the SPDR Gold Minishares Trust (GLDM), which is up 19% year-to-date [5]

Core Insights - Australia's consumer price growth remained elevated in Q4 2025, indicating a potential interest rate hike by the central bank to combat inflation [1] Economic Indicators - The central bank is likely to raise interest rates next week due to persistent inflation pressures [1] - Failure to act may result in inflation becoming excessively high [1]

Core Insights - Australia's inflation rate reached 3.6% in Q4 2025, marking the highest level in six quarters, which suggests limited potential for interest rate cuts this year [1] - The Q4 inflation figure increased from 3.2% in Q3, aligning with economists' expectations [1] - On a quarterly basis, inflation rose by 0.6%, matching forecasts and showing a decrease from the previous quarter's 1.3% [2] Inflation Details - Year-on-year inflation for December was reported at 3.8%, surpassing the expected 3.55% [2] - The Australian Bureau of Statistics identified housing as the primary contributor to the December inflation increase, with prices rising by 5.5% [2] - Additional contributors to price increases included food and non-alcoholic beverages, as well as recreation and culture [2]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - Economists are optimistic about the economy, with forecasts indicating a growth rate of 5.4% annualized in the fourth quarter, the fastest since the pandemic recession [2] - Consumer sentiment has fallen to its lowest level since 2014, indicating a disconnect between economic growth and public perception [1][3] Group 2: Consumer Spending Dynamics - Consumer spending remains robust, driven primarily by high-income households, while lower- and middle-income households face financial struggles [4][5] - The disparity in wealth distribution has increased, with top earners accounting for a larger share of wealth and spending compared to previous decades [4] Group 3: Inflation and Economic Perception - Inflation has significantly eroded the purchasing power of lower-income households, contributing to negative consumer sentiment despite positive GDP indicators [5][6] - The disconnect between economic data and consumer sentiment is attributed to rising costs of living and negative media coverage of economic news [7] Group 4: K-Shaped Economic Recovery - The economy is described as "K-shaped," where wealthier households benefit from stock market gains while average households experience financial deterioration [8]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's policy committee members who dissent from the majority are less likely to have their preferred policies adopted in future meetings, as highlighted by a research paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research [2][5][6] - Recent meetings have seen a majority vote to lower interest rates by a quarter-point, but dissenting votes have been present, indicating a division among members regarding inflation and employment concerns [3][8] Economic Implications - The Fed faces a dilemma between high inflation and a slowing job market, which has led to varying viewpoints among committee members [4][7] - The influence of the chair in steering majority opinion and establishing consensus is significant, with dissenting members experiencing a one-third reduction in the likelihood of their preferred policies being adopted in the future [5][6] Dissent Dynamics - Dissenting votes are less common, as members may only express disagreement when they believe their position will not prevail in future discussions [6][7] - The recent increase in dissenting votes reflects a lack of consensus on whether inflation or unemployment poses a greater threat to the economy [8]