Core Insights - The article discusses the expertise of an economist with a focus on financial markets and monetary policy, particularly in commodities like oil and gold, as well as stocks, bonds, and currencies [1]. Group 1 - The economist has over a decade of experience in blogging about financial markets [1]. - The research area includes macroeconomic events and their impact on financial markets [1].

U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson reiterated on Friday that the U.S. job market could face stress if it is not supported by monetary policy. ...

Monetary Policy & Economic Data - The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) typically meets every six weeks to vote on monetary policy [3] - Access to high-quality data is crucial for monetary policy decisions, but decisions aren't made daily [2] - The industry emphasizes forward-looking policies, considering future expectations for inflation and output gap [4][17] - Financial conditions are the channel through which monetary policy operates [27] - Monetary policy works with lags, making it inappropriate to solely rely on backward-looking data [16][17] Inflation & Housing - The industry expects a significant disinflation in the services component of inflation indices, driven by shelter costs [7] - Housing costs, particularly rent surges and shelter cost increases, are a major component of inflation indices [5][6] - Immigration shocks have impacted housing rents, initially pushing them up and potentially reversing to negative net migration [35] - Services inflation, particularly driven by housing/shelter costs, is considered the most persistent and sticky part of inflation [33] Neutral Rate & Economic Growth - The speaker's conception of the neutral rate is around 05% (a half), based on a weighted average of model-implied and market-implied rates [9] - Policies like deregulation can expand the potential output of the economy faster than actual output, creating a positive output gap [13][14] - Fiscal deficits in February through August are about $400 billion at an annualized rate below the comparable period in the previous fiscal year [28] Tariffs & Trade - The elasticity of demand in imports is much higher than the elasticity of supply, suggesting foreign producers bear the burden of tariffs [40] - Flat import prices could be due to a weaker dollar offsetting the decrease in dollar prices from tariffs [45] - The speaker compares prices of import-intensive core goods to overall core goods to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation [54]

Monetary Policy & Data Dependency - The Open Market Committee member emphasizes the utmost importance of high-quality data for monetary policy decisions [2] - The member hopes to receive necessary employment and inflation data before the next voting decision in approximately six weeks [2] - The member expresses uncertainty about the continuation of rising food and gas prices [3] Inflation & Housing Costs - The member believes a significant disinflation will be driven by shelter costs, influenced by population growth changes [5] - The member expects to see some reversal of rising prices [4] - Housing costs are identified as the largest component of the inflation process [4] Economic Outlook & Neutral Rate - Current conditions include inflation at approximately 3%, unemployment at 43%, and growth in the third quarter [5] - The member's concept of a neutral rate is around 05% based on a weighted average [6] Policy Impacts & Deregulation - Past policies, such as high population growth and large fiscal deficits, were seen as pushing interest rates higher [6] - Deregulation is expected to accelerate, expanding output by removing regulations [9] - Policies can expand the supply side and potential output [8]

The European Central Bank’s policy settings are appropriate to ensure consumer prices are rising in line with the 2% target in the medium term, according to Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch https://t.co/ryqRjDaetS ...

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams argued against the idea that central banks are resorting to unconventional tools when they seek to influence the economy through balance sheet policies. Most Read from Bloomberg Williams, in remarks prepared for an event in Amsterdam on Friday, said monetary policy is commonly understood through “the overly narrow lens” of setting short-term interest rates. “By implication, other monetary policy actions that have been used — such as forward guid ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is likely to weaken the dollar further, as highlighted by top forex forecasting institutions [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Data Impact - The political deadlock in Washington has delayed the release of key economic data, including weekly jobless claims and the monthly non-farm payroll report [1][3]. - In the absence of economic data, the statements from monetary policymakers will become crucial for traders assessing the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [3][4]. Group 2: Predictions and Trends - The dollar index has declined nearly 10% this year, and further depreciation is expected [1]. - Prestige Economics' Jason Schenker predicts that the euro-to-dollar exchange rate will rise from 1.17 to 1.19 by year-end, while the dollar-to-yen rate will drop from 147 to 145 [4]. - Once the government shutdown is resolved, there is potential for a dollar rebound, but the overall trend suggests continued weakness into next year [4]. Group 3: Global Currency Reserves - The share of the dollar in global central bank foreign exchange reserves has fallen to its lowest level since 1995, with the IMF reporting a drop to 56.3% during the April to June period [4]. - This represents a decline of nearly 1.5 percentage points from the first quarter, marking a 30-year low [4].

Group 1 - The US stock market is currently divided, with multinational corporations outperforming due to a weaker dollar, which boosts their overseas earnings when converted back to the local currency [2] - UBS Group AG is nearing a compromise with the Swiss government to potentially reduce its capital burden from $25 billion to around $15 billion, following the collapse of Credit Suisse [3] - The European Union plans to lift sanctions on assets linked to Oleg Deripaska to compensate Raiffeisen Bank International for damages incurred in Russia, as the bank seeks to exit the Russian market [4] - Germany is set to deploy a €500 billion fiscal package over the next decade, equivalent to 11.6% of its 2024 GDP, aimed at revitalizing the economy and supporting financial institutions like Deutsche Bank [5] Group 2 - The UK's Shadow Chancellor emphasizes fiscal responsibility, vowing that any spending commitments by a Labour government would be fully funded, aiming to reassure markets about economic discipline [8]

Core Points - President Trump's attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook marks a significant event in the Federal Reserve's history, as it is the first time a president has sought to remove a Fed governor in its 112-year existence [2] - The outcome of Cook's lawsuit against her firing will be heard by the Supreme Court in January, following lower courts siding with her [2][3] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which includes all seven Fed governors, is responsible for setting interest rate policy to achieve maximum employment and price stability [6][7] Group 1 - Trump's effort to reshape the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors is part of a broader strategy to influence interest rate decisions [1] - Cook's term is set to last until 2038, and her removal would allow Trump to nominate a new governor for a long-term position [12] - Currently, four of the seven Fed governors were appointed by Republicans, indicating a partisan composition within the board [10] Group 2 - The Fed's Board of Governors serves staggered 14-year terms to insulate monetary policy from political pressures [8] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term as chairman expires in May 2026, but he may continue as a board member until January 2028 [14] - The potential reappointment of Stephen Miran, who currently fills a seat until January 2026, remains uncertain [11]

RT Bitcoin Asset Research (@stonychambers)$MSTR is equity in Bitcoin's central bank: @StrategyWhy is that? It's something many are struggling to understand 🧵Central banking is the practice of managing the monetary policy and economic stability of a particular economic bloc. Central banks issue base money, set interest rates, control money supply, and backstop systemic liquidity. Central banks hold asset reserves which back the base money it issues.Strategy does all of these things through $STRC and $BTC. St ...