Venture Capital Industry Trends - The venture-capital industry is transforming due to the pursuit of higher valuations [1] - This transformation is making a volatile business riskier [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the author's extensive background in finance, particularly in corporate finance, M&A, and investment analysis, with a focus on real estate, renewable energy, and equity markets [1] Group 1: Professional Background - The author holds a Master's degree in Banking & Finance from Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, indicating a strong academic foundation in finance [1] - The author's experience spans over 10 years in investment banking, showcasing a deep understanding of financial markets and investment strategies [1] Group 2: Areas of Expertise - The author specializes in financial modeling, valuation, and qualitative analysis, which are critical skills for assessing investment opportunities [1] - The focus on real estate and renewable energy suggests a strategic interest in sectors that are likely to experience growth and transformation [1] Group 3: Engagement and Goals - The author aims to share insights and analysis on companies of interest with a global audience, indicating a commitment to knowledge sharing and community engagement [1] - There is an emphasis on continuous improvement and informed decision-making, reflecting a proactive approach to investment analysis [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Accelink Technologies is "Sell" with a target price of Rmb24.6, indicating an expected share price return of -46.7% [2][5]. Core Insights - Accelink Technologies expects a net profit growth of 55%-95% YoY for 1H25, with guidance of Rmb323 million to Rmb407 million, driven by strong optical transceiver demand and an improved product mix [1][4]. - The mid-point of the 2Q25 earnings guidance at Rmb215 million is slightly below expectations, suggesting potential downside risk to the share price, which is currently trading at a high valuation of 37x FY25 PE compared to peers at around high-teens [1][5]. - The valuation of Accelink is considered demanding due to lower profitability in the domestic transceiver market and relatively lower earnings growth compared to competitors like Innolight and Eoptolink [1][5]. Summary by Sections Earnings Guidance - For 2Q25, Accelink's net profit guidance is Rmb215 million, a 64% increase from Rmb131 million in 2Q24, while for 1H25, the guidance is Rmb365 million, a 75% increase from Rmb209 million in 1H24 [4]. Valuation - The target price of Rmb24.6 is based on a P/E multiple of 20.0x 2025E EPS, which is one standard deviation below the stock's five-year historical forward PER [5]. Market Capitalization - Accelink Technologies has a market capitalization of Rmb37,228 million (approximately US$5,196 million) [2].

Venture Capital & Startups - Current generation of buzzy start-ups' stratospheric valuations may be overinflated [1] - A venture drought could follow if valuations are overinflated [1]

Fundraising - PumpFun 在 12 分钟内融资 6 亿美元，估值达到 40 亿美元 [1] Market Sentiment - 行业认为人们没有从过去的经验中吸取教训 [1]

Market Overview & Strategy - Investors are seemingly overlooking tariffs, focusing on earnings and the Federal Reserve, though potential risks remain [1][2] - The economy shows signs of weakening, with less than 50% of industries hiring in the past 3 months and consumer spending growth slowing [5][6] - The S&P 500's valuation at 245 times trailing 12-month earnings and 23 times forward 12-month earnings, with an expected 7% growth, appears optimistic [8] - Investors should broaden horizons, considering small-cap stocks, which are at their second-lowest valuation relative to large-cap stocks in 31 years [9] - International stocks are up around 20% year-to-date and are expected to continue performing well, potentially boosted by a weaker dollar [10] Small Cap & Interest Rates - Small-cap stocks present opportunities, especially with deregulation and lower tax rates potentially stimulating growth [9][13] - While historically lower rates reset the cycle for small caps, companies are adapting to current rates [12][13] - Investors with a time horizon beyond the next three minutes should consider small-cap stocks for the next 3-7 years, anticipating a cycle of different market leadership [15] Earnings Season & Forward Guidance - Forward guidance is crucial for investors to assess the impact of tariffs on individual companies [16] - Investors should pay attention to what they are paying for earnings revisions, as some large-cap stocks outside of technology trade at 40-60 times forward earnings [17] - A return to basics is advised, focusing on a margin of safety, valuation, and macroeconomic headwinds that may favor international and small/mid-cap stocks [18] Market Pullback & Investor Behavior - Historically, after reaching market peaks, the market continues to rise over 12-18 months, averaging 26%, but with drawdowns of 7% and 12-15% [20][21] - Long-term investors are advised to stay the course, while active investors should add optionality to their portfolios, considering low valuation stocks or hedging strategies using options [23][24] - A market dip is expected to be bought by retail investors, consistent with post-2020 behavior [27][28] AI & Tariff Impact - Structural AI leaders continue to be attractive, with adoption occurring across industries for both cost-cutting and revenue enhancement [33] - The market's shrug in response to recent tariff letters may be premature, given the potential for deals to be struck before August 1st [36][37]

Company Performance - Lightspeed Commerce Inc. closed at $11.48, down 2.21% from the previous trading session, underperforming the S&P 500's loss of 0.33% [1] - Over the past month, shares of Lightspeed gained 2.09%, lagging behind the Computer and Technology sector's gain of 5.24% and the S&P 500's gain of 4.07% [1] Upcoming Earnings - The company is set to release earnings on July 31, 2025, with projected earnings of $0.11 per share, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 10% [2] - Revenue is expected to be $286.85 million, indicating a 7.8% growth compared to the same quarter last year [2] Fiscal Year Estimates - For the entire fiscal year, earnings are projected at $0.51 per share and revenue at $1.19 billion, representing increases of 13.33% and 10.44% respectively from the prior year [3] Analyst Estimates - Recent changes to analyst estimates for Lightspeed suggest a favorable outlook on the company's business health and profitability [4] - The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has remained stagnant over the past month, with Lightspeed currently holding a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [6] Valuation Metrics - Lightspeed is trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 22.94, which is a discount compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 28.6 [7] - The company has a PEG ratio of 1.4, while the Internet - Software industry has an average PEG ratio of 2.21 [7] Industry Context - The Internet - Software industry is part of the Computer and Technology sector, currently holding a Zacks Industry Rank of 67, placing it in the top 28% of over 250 industries [8]

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Core Viewpoint - Snap-on Incorporated (SNA) is expected to report declines in both revenue and earnings for the second quarter of 2025, with a revenue estimate of $1.2 billion, reflecting a 2.2% decrease from the previous year [1] Financial Performance - The consensus estimate for quarterly earnings is stable at $4.61 per share, indicating a 6.1% decline from the same quarter last year [2] - Snap-on has experienced a negative trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of nearly 1% on average, with a notable negative surprise of 6.2% in the last reported quarter [2] Influencing Factors - The company is focusing on enhancing value creation through initiatives in safety, service quality, customer satisfaction, and innovation, including expanding its franchise network and increasing its presence in emerging markets [3] - Snap-on's innovation pipeline remains strong, with ongoing investments in product development and global brand expansion [3] Challenges - External challenges include macroeconomic headwinds, geographic pressures in key industries, and geopolitical disruptions, which are likely impacting performance [4] - The Tools Group unit has been sluggish due to lower activity in U.S. operations and adverse foreign currency translations, with an estimated 4% decline expected in the second quarter [5] - Rising raw material and operational costs continue to pose risks to profitability [4][9] Market Position - Despite challenges, Snap-on's manufacturing strategy allows for quick adjustments to evolving production landscapes, with expected resilience in the automotive repair sector due to increased household spending on repairs [6] - The Repair Systems & Information Group is predicted to see a 3% rise in the second quarter [6] Valuation - Snap-on's stock is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 16.54x, which is below its five-year high of 18.63x and the industry average of 17.50x, presenting an attractive investment opportunity [8] Recent Performance - Over the past three months, Snap-on's shares have decreased by 4.8%, compared to a 0.8% drop in the industry [10]

Valuation & Revenue Growth - Positive elements are converging to drive up valuations for the W, including patch on uniform, ad spots, and franchise valuation, all driven by revenue and a multiple of revenue [1] - The league experienced hypergrowth after raising capital in February 2022, leading to increased revenue for teams from gate receipts, corporate partnerships, and local media deals [2] - Team valuations have increased from an average of $5 million to $260-270 million over approximately five years [3] Media Deals & Market Dynamics - A significant national media deal, including with NBC, is set to begin next year, further contributing to the multiple and valuation [3] - The league is primarily located in major cities, with Connecticut being one of the smaller markets [4] - Some teams in smaller arenas are looking to upgrade to larger venues to increase revenue and gate attendance [4] Player Compensation - Collective bargaining is currently underway with the players association, with plans to return as much as possible to the players and implement transformational changes by the end of the year [6]