研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 05 月 15 日 F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上一工作日价 指标 | 今日价格 | | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 上一工作日份 | 涨跌 | | 格 | | | | | | 格 | | | 宮千卒業が掲指数 | 108.14 | 107.62 | 0.52 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.80 | 4.75 | 0.05 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.40 | 2.40 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.84 | 7.95 | -0.11 | | 期货价格 | | | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The apple cold storage inventory this year is at a low level, the lowest since 2019. So, the apple supply in the market is likely to be tight before the new fruit is on the market. The current market sales are okay, and the spot price is strong, which supports the apple price. Also, the windy, hot, and dry weather in the western producing areas in April of the new fruit season has affected the fruit - setting in some areas. Overall, the apple price is expected to continue to fluctuate slightly upwards [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Information - **Spot Prices**: The Zeus apple price index was 107.62, down 0.02 from the previous day. The price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70 apples rose 0.45 to 4.75. The prices of Qixia, Penglai first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples and Yiyuan paper - bagged 70 apples remained unchanged. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits was 7.95, up 0.03 [3]. - **Futures Prices**: AP01 was 7674, down 98 from the previous close; AP05 was 7625, down 247; AP10 was 7744, down 93. The spreads AP01 - AP05, AP05 - AP10, and AP10 - AP01 also changed [3]. - **Price Differences**: The price differences between Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples and AP01, AP05, AP10 all increased [3]. Market News and Views - **Inventory**: As of May 16, 2025, the apple cold storage inventory in the main producing areas was 228.86 tons, a decrease of 37.91 tons from the previous week, at a near - five - year low [4]. - **Trade Data**: In March 2024, the fresh apple export volume was about 9.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40.8% and a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative export volume was about 25.56 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. In March 2025, the fresh apple import volume was 0.95 tons, a month - on - month increase of 535.7% and a year - on - year increase of 167.1%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative import volume was 1.33 tons, a year - on - year increase of 123.9% [6]. - **Market Transactions**: The mainstream transaction prices in the producing areas remained stable. The purchasing enthusiasm of merchants decreased, and most of them purchased according to demand. The storage merchants were more willing to sell, but the asking prices were still high, supporting the price. The overall cold storage trading volume decreased, and the shipping speed slowed down. The market arrivals decreased slightly, and the sales were stable [6]. - **Profit**: The profit of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants in the 2024 - 2025 production season was 0.9 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.2 yuan per catty from the previous week [6]. - **Spot Price in Shandong**: The apple price in Qixia, Shandong was stable. The price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmer's slice - red apples was 3.5 - 3.8 yuan per catty, and the striped ones were 3.5 - 4.5 yuan per catty. The price of merchant's slice - red apples was 4.0 - 4.5 yuan per catty, and the striped ones were 4.0 - 5.0 yuan per catty. The price of bulk apples was 2.8 - 3.0 yuan per catty, and the third - grade merchant's apples were 2.5 - 3.0 yuan per catty. The price of 70 apples was 2.5 - 2.7 yuan per catty, and the transactions were average [7]. Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: Short - term, go long on AP10 at low prices. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [9].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 05 月 07 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日份格 | 下一工作日份 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | F-工作日价 | 涨跌 | | 格 | | | | | | 相 | | | 宮千卒業外掲指数 | 103.65 | 103.65 | 0.00 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.30 | 4.30 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.40 | 2.40 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.69 | 7.63 | 0.06 | | 期货价格 | | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April 2025, the main contract of apple futures completed the roll - over and showed a strong and volatile pattern. The AP2510 contract broke through the February high and reached a new recent high. The low inventory of old - season apples and the sales peak season provided support for the market. The new - season apples are entering the flowering period, which is prone to weather speculation by funds. It is recommended to take a bullish approach in operation [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In April 2025, the main contract of apple futures completed the roll - over, showing a strong and volatile pattern. The AP2510 contract refreshed the recent high. The low inventory of old - season apples and the sales peak season, along with the new - season apples entering the flowering period, led to a strong market [5]. 3.2 Apple Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Cold - Storage Inventory Lower than the Same Period in Previous Years - As of April 24, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory was about 2.4376 million tons, 1.6239 million tons less than the same period last year. The inventory in Shandong was about 1.3212 million tons, and that in Shaanxi was about 0.6775 million tons. The quality of apples in the western region was better than that in the eastern region. The remaining inventory of farmers' goods in the northwest was small, and some farmers showed a reluctance to sell. The low inventory reduced the sales pressure [13]. 3.2.2 Good Shipping Performance in Production Areas - As of April 24, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 18.45%, 3.23 percentage points lower than last week and 12.02 percentage points lower than the same period last year, with a destocking rate of 70.99%. The cold - storage capacity utilization ratio in Shandong was 26.80%, a decrease of 3.83 percentage points, and that in Shaanxi was 17.83%, a decrease of 3.18 percentage points. The 4 - 5 month period is the peak outbound period. With the temperature rising and the storage cost increasing, the willingness of farmers and merchants to sell may increase, and the destocking progress is expected to remain fast [21]. 3.2.3 Good Import Performance - The overall import scale of fresh apples in China is small. In 2010 - 2020, the import volume accounted for only about 1% of the total output. In March 2025, the import volume was 0.0095 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 535.68% and a year - on - year increase of 167.07%. The cumulative import volume from January to March 2025 was 0.00133 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 123.88%. The import has recovered [25]. 3.2.4 Good Export Performance in the First Quarter - China's fresh apples are mainly exported to Southeast Asian countries. In March 2025, the export volume was about 0.0961 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 40.82% and a year - on - year increase of 1.71%. The export growth rate in the second quarter of 2025 may decline but remain at a high level. The increase in export volume will drive cold - storage destocking [28]. 3.2.5 Seasonal Fruits Not in Large - Scale Supply, Benefiting Apple Demand Recovery - In April 2025, fruit prices were strong. The average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits was about 7.6 yuan/kg, slightly higher than the same period last year. The small supply and high prices of seasonal fruits were beneficial to the recovery of apple demand [33]. 3.2.6 Apple Consumption Seasonal Analysis - Months with a high probability of price increases are September, November, and December. Months with a high probability of price decreases are April, August, and October. The price trends are related to factors such as inventory, new - season apple supply, and seasonal fruit impact [37][38]. 3.2.7 New - Season Apples Gradually Entering the Flowering Period - In the Shandong production area, the apple flowering period is slightly ahead, but the pollination and fruit - setting in Yiyuan are affected by rainfall. In the Shaanxi production area, most are in the full - bloom stage, and some areas have completed fruit - setting. The Gansu production area is gradually entering the flowering period, and some orchards may have poor fruit - setting [41]. 3.3 Market Outlook - As of April 24, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory is low, and the sales pressure is reduced. The inventory ratio is decreasing, and the export volume is increasing. The 4 - 5 month period is the peak outbound period. With the temperature rising and the storage cost increasing, the destocking progress is expected to remain fast. The low inventory of old - season apples and the sales peak season provide support for the market. It is recommended to take a bullish approach in operation [43][44]