New Zealand’s jobless rate rose to the highest in almost five years, the latest sign of an economic slowdown that could prompt the central bank to resume interest-rate cuts https://t.co/616jpf6TJv ...

Economic Outlook - Nykredit (丹麦最大的银行之一) 下调了对丹麦经济的展望 [1] - Novo Nordisk (诺和诺德) 警告称盈利增长将放缓，引发了人们对更广泛经济放缓的担忧 [1]

BLS Commissioner Firing & Data Trustworthiness - Evercore ISI认为解雇劳工统计局（BLS）局长的举动令人不安，并指出操纵数据几乎不可能，指控不实[1][2] - 市场普遍相信现有数据，这反映在十年期国债收益率和油价的下跌上，表明经济正在放缓[2] - 即使政府数据出现偏差，金融服务机构（如摩根大通、桥水和Evercore ISI）也会通过自己的调查来判断经济状况[3][4] - 批评应集中在数据收集方法和透明度上，而非指责数据被操纵以达到政治目的[5] - 未来需关注特朗普政府任命官员后，BLS数据的可靠性是否会发生变化[8][9] Economic Trends & M&A Activity - 经济出现放缓迹象，体现在油价下跌、收益率下降以及对美联储降息的预期上升[2][10] - 并购（M&A）环境正在改善，2025年的交易量指标高于2024年，但尚未恢复到2021年的高峰水平[11] - 并购活动受商业信心、金融市场走向以及整体经济稳健性的影响[12] - 2025年初的普遍预测为经济增长2%至25%，但上半年实际增长略高于1%，全年预期已降至1%至15%[14][15] - 关税和人事变动（如解雇鲍威尔）带来的不确定性导致消费者和企业犹豫不决，从而影响经济增长[13][14]

Could the debate about the firing of the BLS commissioner be taking the focus off uh what investors really need uh to think uh about jobs. Steve Leeman has a few ideas. Steve, >> good morning, Joe.Yeah, Wall Street economists were not concerned in their reports over the weekend that Friday's payroll numbers were altered for political reasons. Their real concern, the numbers are real and a s and actually signal a slowdown. Goldman Sachs writing quote Friday's payroll report brings payroll growth closer in li ...

We got a lot to digest today. So, let's bring in Unlimited CEO and CIO Bob Elliot and Far Miller Washington President and CEO Michael Farre. He's also a CNBC contributor.Gentlemen, it's good to have you. Bob, you're here with us on set. I'm going to kick this off with you because it's a perfect storm.You've got tariff implementation. You've got a very weak jobs report, this BLS firing, and then of course in the background amid this Russia rhetoric, nuclear subs that are being repositioned to quote unquote a ...

New Zealand retail card spending fell in the second quarter, adding to signs that an initial spurt of economic growth early this year has all but disappeared https://t.co/sfRiEUmTRT ...

Market Overview & Strategy - Investors are seemingly overlooking tariffs, focusing on earnings and the Federal Reserve, though potential risks remain [1][2] - The economy shows signs of weakening, with less than 50% of industries hiring in the past 3 months and consumer spending growth slowing [5][6] - The S&P 500's valuation at 245 times trailing 12-month earnings and 23 times forward 12-month earnings, with an expected 7% growth, appears optimistic [8] - Investors should broaden horizons, considering small-cap stocks, which are at their second-lowest valuation relative to large-cap stocks in 31 years [9] - International stocks are up around 20% year-to-date and are expected to continue performing well, potentially boosted by a weaker dollar [10] Small Cap & Interest Rates - Small-cap stocks present opportunities, especially with deregulation and lower tax rates potentially stimulating growth [9][13] - While historically lower rates reset the cycle for small caps, companies are adapting to current rates [12][13] - Investors with a time horizon beyond the next three minutes should consider small-cap stocks for the next 3-7 years, anticipating a cycle of different market leadership [15] Earnings Season & Forward Guidance - Forward guidance is crucial for investors to assess the impact of tariffs on individual companies [16] - Investors should pay attention to what they are paying for earnings revisions, as some large-cap stocks outside of technology trade at 40-60 times forward earnings [17] - A return to basics is advised, focusing on a margin of safety, valuation, and macroeconomic headwinds that may favor international and small/mid-cap stocks [18] Market Pullback & Investor Behavior - Historically, after reaching market peaks, the market continues to rise over 12-18 months, averaging 26%, but with drawdowns of 7% and 12-15% [20][21] - Long-term investors are advised to stay the course, while active investors should add optionality to their portfolios, considering low valuation stocks or hedging strategies using options [23][24] - A market dip is expected to be bought by retail investors, consistent with post-2020 behavior [27][28] AI & Tariff Impact - Structural AI leaders continue to be attractive, with adoption occurring across industries for both cost-cutting and revenue enhancement [33] - The market's shrug in response to recent tariff letters may be premature, given the potential for deals to be struck before August 1st [36][37]

Market Trends & Economic Outlook - IEA 报告显示全球石油需求下降，美国和中国是主要降幅来源 [1] - 石油需求下降可能预示着美国乃至全球经济放缓 [2][3] - 分析师普遍预计油价将保持平稳 [2] - 尽管美国经济可能放缓，但目前程度温和，与年初的担忧相反 [3] Tariffs & Trade - 总统可能对欧盟和加拿大征收关税，市场对此的反应可能反映出关税最终水平将低于目前水平的预期 [4][5][6] - 关税可能导致市场动荡，但市场主要关注的是仍然具有建设性的宏观背景 [6] - 巴西 ETF 因关税而大幅下跌约 5%，可能存在过度反应 [7] - 墨西哥和加拿大等国可能受到关税影响较大，而中国受到的影响相对较小 [9] - 从长远来看，企业将适应并找到应对新环境的方法 [10][11] Investment Strategies - 在当前具有建设性的宏观背景下，公司更倾向于投资企业债券，因为可以获得更高的收益 [12] - 许多公司的资产负债表表现强劲，公司开始关注高收益和新兴市场债务 [13] - 在没有经济衰退的情况下，违约率将保持在较低水平 [13] - 建议投资者在当前环境下采取更积极的风险承担策略，而不是仅仅关注国债 [14]

Malaysia’s industrial production grew at a slower-than-expected pace for the second straight month, adding to signs of an economic slowdown https://t.co/hqcENuuHjr ...

Economic Outlook - Wells Fargo indicates signs of an economic slowdown, with job creation slowing and inflation expected to rise [1][2] - Nonfarm payrolls added an average of 130,000 jobs per month in the first half of the year, down from 164,000 in the same period of 2024 [2] - Job creation is affected by stagnation in small businesses' hiring plans, while inflation is anticipated to increase due to new tariffs [3] Federal Reserve Actions - The trends of slowing job creation and rising inflation are expected to lead the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to lower interest rates by 25 basis points at three upcoming meetings in September, October, and December [3] Employment Data - Employers are cautious about adding new employees, despite retaining current workers; the number of Americans filing for unemployment has dropped to a seven-week low, while insured unemployment has risen to its highest level since November 2021 [4] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that employment growth in June was consistent with the previous year's rate, with gains in state government and healthcare sectors [5] Tariff Impact - The impact of tariffs is reflected in data showing an increase in non-revolving credit, as consumers are purchasing larger items like cars to avoid new tariffs [6]