Economic Growth Forecast - The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta upgraded its economic growth forecast by 0.3 percentage points, predicting a 3.4% annualized gain in GDP during Q3 [3] Consumer Spending Trends - Consumer spending, which accounts for approximately 70% of economic growth, has remained steady despite rising price pressures, a slowdown in hiring, and an increase in unemployment to 4.3% [3] - Spending surged early in the year due to consumers anticipating price increases from high U.S. tariffs, but this trend has waned since May, leading to a modest slowdown in spending [4] Retail Sales Performance - Retail sales exceeded forecasts in August, rising by 0.6% for the third consecutive month, despite job market weaknesses and declining consumer sentiment [7] - Nine out of 13 categories of goods saw gains, with e-commerce sales increasing by 2% and sales at clothing stores and sporting goods shops rising by 1% and 0.8%, respectively [7] Impact of Tariffs - Import taxes have negatively impacted sales, particularly in categories vulnerable to tariffs, such as sports equipment, electronics, and clothing [5] - One in four small businesses reported that tariffs and rising costs have led them to increase prices, indicating consumer anxiety regarding import taxes fueling price gains [6]

Core Insights - The CNBC Fed survey reveals significant disagreement among respondents regarding the Federal Reserve's actions and the implications of President Trump's influence on Fed independence [2][3][4] Group 1: Federal Reserve Expectations - 97% of respondents expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points, but only 41% believe this is the appropriate action [2][5] - 41% of respondents think a 50 basis point cut is warranted, while 28% believe the Fed should not cut rates at all [5] - The current year-end funds rate for 2025 is projected at 3.6%, down 30 basis points from the previous survey, with a further drop to 3.13% for 2026 [6] Group 2: Concerns Over Fed Independence - 82% of respondents believe President Trump is attempting to limit or eliminate Federal Reserve independence, with 41% indicating a desire to limit it and another 41% wanting to eliminate it [3][4] - 68% believe that these presidential actions will lead to higher inflation, while 57% think it will result in higher unemployment [4] - 74% of respondents anticipate a lower value of the US dollar as a consequence of these actions [5] Group 3: Future Fed Leadership - Among the 29 respondents, 45% believe President Trump will appoint Chris Waller as the next Fed Chair, while 24% favor Worsh and 17% favor Hasset [13] - The process for selecting the next Fed Chair is described as transparent, with the Treasury Secretary actively interviewing potential candidates [17][18] - The survey indicates a growing interest in the implications of Fed leadership on future policy decisions [15]

Group 1: Vehicle Sales Performance - New vehicle sales in Indonesia declined by 19% in August 2025, totaling 61,780 units compared to 76,302 units in August 2024 [1] - In the first eight months of 2025, the vehicle market shrank by 11% year-on-year to 500,951 units, following a 17% decline to 560,552 units in the same period last year [3] - Sales of light passenger vehicles fell by 11% to 387,110 units, while commercial vehicle sales declined by 9% to 113,841 units [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Market sentiment has weakened significantly, with fewer consumers making large purchases despite economic growth accelerating to 5.1% year-on-year in Q2 2025 [2] - Bank Indonesia cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.00% in August, down from a peak of 6.25% a year earlier, to stimulate consumer spending [2] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Japanese automakers face increased pressure from the growing presence of Chinese brands, particularly in the battery electric vehicle (BEV) segment [4] - BEV sales surged threefold to 53,100 units in the first eight months of 2025, with BYD and its Denza brand leading with 25,537 units [4] Group 4: Production and Exports - Overall vehicle production in Indonesia fell by over 3% year-to-date to 757,220 units, despite a 12% rise in exports of fully-assembled vehicles to 335,063 units [5]

Group 1 - Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated that measures to reduce inflation are effective [1] - There is a concern regarding whether additional actions are necessary to stimulate economic growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank is expected to implement two more interest rate cuts due to anticipated lackluster economic growth according to Amundi SA Chief Investment Officer Vincent Mortier [1] Group 1 - The European Central Bank's decision to cut interest rates is influenced by ongoing economic conditions [1] - Vincent Mortier's insights were shared during an appearance on Bloomberg Television [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Reserve Bank of Peru has cut interest rates to the lowest level since 2022, reducing the benchmark rate to 4.25% from 4.5% due to an unexpected drop in inflation [1][2]. Economic Indicators - Consumer prices in Peru rose by only 1.11% in August year-over-year, marking one of the slowest inflation rates among major emerging markets and nearing the lower end of the central bank's target range [3]. - Strong economic activity was reported, with a 4.5% expansion in June compared to the previous year, which may limit the potential for further rate cuts [4]. Central Bank's Position - The central bank indicated that the current interest rate is close to its estimated neutral level and forecasts inflation to be near the center of its target range by the end of the year [2]. - The key rate in Peru is now aligned with the lower end of the range set by the US Federal Reserve, which may create caution regarding further reductions in rates due to potential capital outflows [3].

Economic Indicators - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 0.4% month-over-month, surpassing the expected 0.3% and up from July's 0.2% [2][3] - Year-over-year, the headline CPI was reported at 2.9%, meeting expectations and showing a slight increase from the previous 2.7% [2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, remained steady at 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, consistent with forecasts [3] European Central Bank (ECB) Updates - The ECB decided to maintain its key interest rates, with the Deposit Facility Rate at 2.00%, the Main Refinancing Rate at 2.15%, and the Marginal Lending Facility at 2.40% [4] - The ECB raised its inflation outlook for 2025 and 2026 while slightly lowering it for 2027, indicating a more persistent inflationary environment [5] - The GDP growth forecast for the Eurozone in 2025 was revised upwards to 1.2% from 0.9%, while the 2026 forecast was trimmed to 1.0% from 1.1% [5] Company Performance - Kroger reported second-quarter 2025 earnings with adjusted EPS of $1.04, exceeding the estimated $1.00, despite slightly missing revenue expectations with sales of $33.98 billion [6][7] - Identical-store sales excluding fuel grew by 3.4%, significantly above the estimated 2.8% [7] - Kroger narrowed its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $4.70 to $4.80, raising the lower end of its forecast [7] Oil Market Insights - OPEC maintained its forecasts for global oil demand growth at 1.29 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2025 and 1.38 million bpd for 2026 [10] - Crude output averaged 42.40 million bpd in August, an increase of 509,000 bpd from July, following an OPEC+ production hike [11]

Core Points - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 2% as inflation is under control and the economy is performing better than expected despite U.S. tariffs [1][2] - The focus has shifted to the fiscal crisis in France, with concerns about the country's deficit and political situation potentially impacting market stability [2][7] - Eurozone inflation was reported at 2.1% in August, aligning with the ECB's target, which reduces the urgency for rate changes [6] Economic Performance - The Eurozone experienced a modest growth of 0.1% in the second quarter, indicating resilience against recession despite tariff disruptions [3] - The S&P Global purchasing managers' index stood at 51 in August, signaling economic expansion [3] Trade Relations - The EU negotiated a 15% ceiling on U.S. tariffs on European goods, providing some certainty in trade relations despite higher costs [4] - ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that trade uncertainty has diminished, which could positively influence economic conditions [4] Monetary Policy Context - The ECB's deposit rate influences overall borrowing costs, with previous rate hikes aimed at combating inflation from 2021 to 2023 [5] - Analysts suggest that another rate cut may be possible in the coming months if economic conditions warrant it [6] Fiscal Concerns - The French government's deficit was reported at 5.8% of GDP last year, raising borrowing costs in the bond market due to political gridlock [7] - The ECB may consider intervening to purchase French bonds if market panic escalates, but only if France adheres to EU debt rules [7]

Group 1 - The article discusses the shifting perspectives of Democrats and Republicans regarding the Federal Reserve's independence and its role in economic recovery [3][4][5] - It highlights the contradiction in Republican demands for rate cuts from the Fed, contrasting with their historical stance against government intervention in the economy [6][8] - The piece argues that government intervention, including actions by the Fed, cannot effectively stimulate economic growth, especially when it substitutes market mechanisms [9][10] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that economic growth fundamentally originates from the private sector, and any government actions merely redistribute resources rather than create them [7][8] - It critiques the notion that the Fed can alter economic realities, labeling such beliefs as delusions [10]

US-India Relations & Trade - Potential 50% duty on India by the US due to tariff campaign [1] - India's $50 billion exports at risk if relations with the US are not repaired [3] - US is India's biggest customer [3] India-China Relations - India is moving to repair relations with China [1] - Potential for cross-border investments between Indian billionaires and Chinese technology companies [2] - Expect announcements regarding India-China relations at the Modi-Xi Jinping meeting [2] Indian Economic Reform - Modi is proposing lower consumption tax rates [3] - More reforms are promised to boost India's economic growth [2][3]