JOUMANNA: THIS IS HORIZONS MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA, TOP STORIES IS MORNING. PRESIDENT TRUMP AND PUTIN SET TO MEET IN BUDAPEST TO DISCUSS ENDING THE WAR IN UKRAINE. UKRAINE'S VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY WILL MEET THE U.S. PRESIDENT TODAY AT THE WHITE HOUSE.GROWING CONCERN AT THE U.S. CREDIT MARKET WEIGHS ON WALL STREET IS TO REGIONAL LENDERS DISCLOSE LOAN FRAUD LOSSES. CHINESE EV MAKER BYD IS WRAPPING UP ITS GLOBAL EXPANSION, TARGETING SOUTH AFRICA FOR GROWTH. IT HAS JUST GONE 8:00 A.M. ACROSS THE EMIRATES. I'M JOUMANN ...

Market Performance - Africa's leading financial markets experienced a setback last year [1] - Market depth weakened and turnover declined [1] Influencing Factors - Turbulent trade climate impacted financial markets [1] - Geopolitical tensions contributed to market challenges [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. economy is experiencing a "heightened degree of uncertainty," according to JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon [2][7] - Despite some signs of softening, such as limited job growth, the economy has shown resilience [2][3] - Factors contributing to uncertainty include geopolitical conditions, tariffs, trade uncertainty, elevated asset prices, and the risk of persistent inflation [2][7] Economic Analysis - JPMorgan Chase was among the first major banks to assess the economic impact following a recent tariff announcement that affected the stock market [3] - Other financial institutions, including Wells Fargo, also reported a resilient economy, highlighting the strong financial health of clients and customers [3][5] - Analysts indicate that banks and lenders appear healthy, with affluent Americans spending, businesses investing in AI and data centers, and both consumers and corporations repaying debt [5] Market Reactions - Trade policy remains uncertain, with escalating tensions between the U.S. and China impacting stock market performance, including a 3.6% drop in the Nasdaq and a 2.7% drop in the S&P 500 [6] - The stock market showed some recovery after President Trump retracted a tariff threat, but diplomatic strains continued to affect market stability [6] Investor Implications - Quarterly earnings from banks and lenders are closely monitored as they may reveal trends ahead of official data releases, especially in the context of current economic and trade uncertainties [4]

Group 1: U.S. Support for Ukraine - The United States has been covertly assisting Ukraine by providing intelligence for long-range strikes against Russian energy infrastructure, aimed at inflicting economic pain on Moscow and encouraging peace negotiations [2][3] - U.S. intelligence is critical in planning flight paths, altitudes, timing, and mission decisions for Ukrainian long-range drones, allowing them to evade Russian air defenses [3] - The U.S. is considering the delivery of advanced long-range missiles, such as Tomahawks and Barracudas, to Ukraine, although no final decision has been made [4] Group 2: Ukraine's Energy Resilience - Ukraine is enhancing its energy resilience with a $140 million program to install U.S.-made battery parks, aimed at providing backup power and stabilizing the grid against Russian attacks [5] Group 3: Taiwan's Rare Earth Supply Diversification - Taiwan's economy ministry reports that the island sources critical rare earth materials primarily from Europe, the U.S., and Japan, reducing reliance on China amid new Chinese export controls [6][7] - The Chinese restrictions on rare earth exports are viewed as a strategic move that could impact the global semiconductor industry, particularly affecting companies like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) and ASML Holding NV [7][8] - Taiwan imports approximately 3,000 tons of rare earths annually and is investing in research for substitutes and advanced recycling methods to enhance self-sufficiency [8]

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is leaning towards further interest rate cuts, with Governor Christopher Waller advocating for cautious quarter-percentage-point reductions amid a weak job market [2][8] - A report from Moody's Analytics highlights that 22 U.S. states and the District of Columbia are experiencing economic downturns, with 13 states "treading water," indicating a potential broader recession [3][8] Commodity Markets - Rare earth stocks surged following President Trump's warning about China's new export controls on rare earth elements, effective October 9, 2025, which require export licenses for products with trace amounts of these minerals [4][8] - The geopolitical tensions have intensified trade relations, with Trump threatening a "massive increase" in tariffs on Chinese imports [4][8] Automotive Sector - Volkswagen Group reported a 1% increase in global vehicle deliveries to 2.2 million in Q3, despite declines in China (down 7.2%) and North America (down 9.8%) [5][8] - Growth in Western Europe (up 8%) and South America (up nearly 10%) helped offset losses in key markets [5][8] Academic and Corporate Developments - MIT rejected a federal funding proposal from the Trump Administration, citing concerns over academic freedom and the merit-based allocation of scientific funding [6][8] - Verizon experienced widespread network disruptions in Greater Los Angeles due to vandalism-related fiber cuts [6][8]

Core Insights - Geopolitical tensions with China are becoming a new reality for American companies, with Anduril Industries' CEO indicating a long-term conflict is expected [1] - Anduril is positioned as a leading defense technology startup, aiming to modernize the US military with advanced technologies [2] Company Overview - Anduril anticipates doubling its revenue to over $2 billion this year and increasing production by 400% [2] - The company is valued at $30.5 billion and has secured contracts expected to exceed $6 billion by year-end [4] Industry Trends - There is a growing focus on defense technology startups due to rising geopolitical tensions, with nearly $20 billion invested in the sector in Q2, a 200% increase from the previous year [3] - Companies like Palantir Technologies are also emphasizing the importance of US defense capabilities against China, with Palantir's stock rising over 2,000% in the last three years due to demand for AI software [3] Manufacturing Developments - Anduril is constructing a large megafactory in Ohio, which will employ around 4,500 people and focus on advanced manufacturing for various defense products [5] - The shift in defense manufacturing is moving towards scalable and autonomous systems rather than a few high-end products [6]

Core Viewpoint - Gold has surpassed $4,000 per ounce as of October 6, marking a significant increase from below $2,000 two years ago, which is unexpected given its historical underperformance compared to the S&P 500 during bull markets [1][3] Group 1: Gold's Performance - Gold has outperformed the S&P 500 year to date and over the last three years, despite the S&P 500's strong returns over the past 15 years [3][4] - Year-to-date returns for gold are 48.1%, while the S&P 500 has returned 15.3% [5] Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - Currency risk is a major factor driving gold prices higher, with central banks in countries like China and India increasing gold's share in their reserves [5][6] - Countries are diversifying their reserve portfolios to hedge against economic instability and geopolitical tensions, reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar [6][8] - The U.S. dollar's value fell by 11% relative to a basket of currencies in the first half of 2025, prompting allies like Japan to increase gold reserves [8] Group 3: Central Bank Activity - Central banks are significantly increasing their gold reserves, with notable increases from China, India, Japan, Turkey, and Poland over the last five years [9] - The U.S. holds the largest gold reserves, but these have remained unchanged for years, contrasting with the increasing reserves in other countries [9]

Core Insights - Gold prices fell below $4,000 per ounce due to escalating geopolitical tensions from Russia's attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure [1][3] - Crude oil prices also declined, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude experiencing drops of 0.37% and 0.44% respectively [4] Geopolitical Context - Russia has intensified its strikes on Ukraine's energy assets, with over 1,550 attacks reported in recent days, particularly affecting regions like Chernihiv, Sumy, and Poltava [3] - The attacks have resulted in injuries and power outages in Kyiv, reflecting a strategy to disrupt civilian access to energy during winter [2] Market Reactions - Following the attacks, gold prices decreased by 0.24% to $3,966.57, down from a previous high of $4,059.34 [3] - Crude oil benchmarks also fell, with WTI at $61.28 per barrel and Brent crude at $64.93 [4] Analyst Insights - Analysts expect continued volatility in crude oil prices, with support levels identified at $60.60-60.00 and resistance at $62.00-62.70 [5] - For gold, support is noted at $3,940-3,910, while resistance is at $4,020-4,045 [5] Broader Market Impact - The escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has overshadowed recent optimism from a U.S.-brokered Israel-Hamas peace deal, which had previously lifted gold prices above $4,000 [6]

Almonty Industries Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company Name**: Almonty Industries - **Ticker**: NasdaqCM:ALM - **Market Capitalization**: $1.5 billion - **Share Price**: $7 - **Headquarters**: Currently in Toronto, planning to move to the United States by the end of the year [5][6] Industry Context - **Industry**: Tungsten mining - **Key Operations**: - Sangdong operation in South Korea (largest tungsten project since the 1970s) - Panasqueira mine in Portugal (oldest tungsten mine still in operation) - Additional projects in Spain (Los Santos and Valtreixal) [6][7][10] Core Insights and Arguments - **Tungsten Demand**: - Tungsten is essential in various applications, including defense, technology, and automotive sectors [7][8][17] - 83% of the tungsten market is controlled by China, with significant implications for supply chains in the U.S. and Europe [8][10] - **Geopolitical Risks**: - China has imposed export restrictions on tungsten, impacting U.S. military applications from 2027 [9][10] - Almonty is positioned as a key supplier to mitigate supply chain risks for the U.S. and EU [10][11] - **Production Plans**: - Phase 1 of the Sangdong mine is expected to produce 640,000 tons of tungsten ore, generating 230,000 MTU [11][22] - Plans to double production to 1.2 million tons by adding another 560,000 tons of ore in the following year [22][15] - **Financial Stability**: - Almonty has secured a 15-year off-take agreement with a floor price, ensuring revenue stability [11][40] - Recent funding of $90 million raised for a tungsten oxide facility to enhance revenue generation [12][27] - **Market Positioning**: - Almonty aims to be the only U.S.-based tungsten producer by 2026, enhancing its market presence [14][36] - The company has established strategic partnerships, including with American Defense International, to strengthen its position in the defense sector [21][31] Additional Important Points - **Technological Advancements**: - Almonty has developed new technologies in Portugal that have been crucial for operations in South Korea [6][28] - **Economic Outlook**: - Tungsten prices have recently increased to over $600 per MTU, with expectations of a long-term price stabilization between $500 and $600 [18][19] - The company maintains conservative economic models at $350 to $400 per MTU to ensure operational viability [32] - **Molybdenum Asset**: - Almonty is exploring options for potentially spinning off its molybdenum asset, which has a strong off-take agreement with SEAH, a government-backed steel producer [34][29] - **Future Growth**: - The company is focused on expanding its production capabilities and enhancing its market share in the tungsten sector, with a projected mine life of 45 years [26][12] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the Almonty Industries conference call, highlighting the company's strategic positioning within the tungsten industry, its operational plans, and the broader market dynamics affecting its business.

Core Viewpoint - The European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) has raised concerns about the potential threats posed by stablecoins to financial stability, urging for immediate policy action to address vulnerabilities in multi-issuer stablecoin models [1][3][4] Group 1: Stablecoin Market Overview - The stablecoin market has grown significantly over the past five years, now valued at over $300 billion, with dollar-backed tokens dominating the sector, particularly Tether's USDT, which holds more than 58% market share [2] - Euro-backed stablecoins represent a minimal portion of the market, accounting for only 0.15% of the global total [2] Group 2: Regulatory Concerns and Recommendations - The ESRB highlighted vulnerabilities in "third country multi-issuer" stablecoin models, where EU-regulated issuers must maintain reserves locally while non-EU partners manage identical tokens backed abroad, creating potential risks during financial stress [3][4] - A recommendation to ban such multi-issuer models was endorsed by the ESRB, which, while non-binding, pressures EU authorities to consider restrictions or alternative protections [4] Group 3: Financial Stability Risks - Lagarde has drawn parallels between the risks associated with stablecoins and past banking crises, emphasizing the need for strong equivalence regimes and safeguards for cross-border transfers to prevent destabilization [5] - The ESRB has noted that elevated global financial risks, driven by investor optimism and high asset valuations, leave markets vulnerable to potential reversals [5][6] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions and changing trade policies are additional challenges impacting Europe's financial outlook, despite stress tests indicating resilience among European banks [6]