[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com][Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]Moving the marketStocks got off to a wobbly start but eventually found their legs, with all the major indexes closing in the green, led by the Dow while the Nasdaq lagged a bit.Traders spent the day digesting weaker economic data and what it might mean for the Fed’s next move as the last policy meeting of the year approaches.Microsoft slipped about 2% after headlines claimed it was cutting AI-linked software sales quotas, a story the comp ...

Economic Context - The unemployment rate has shown a consistent decline following rate cuts, similar to trends observed in 1998 and 2019, with the latter seeing unemployment at a 50-year low of 3.7% [2][4] - The Federal Reserve has historically implemented rate cuts as a "risk management" measure when unemployment is below 4.6%, specifically in 1998 and 2019 [4] Federal Reserve Actions - The Fed's recent rate cuts in September and October 2025 align with historical patterns of "risk management" adjustments, raising questions about a potential third cut in December 2025 [6] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the recent rate cuts were a response to emerging weaknesses in the labor market, despite a relatively healthy unemployment rate of 4.3% in August 2025 [5] Market Reactions - Following the initial rate cuts in 2019, the S&P 500 experienced a significant recovery, surpassing previous highs by mid-December after a nearly 20% drawdown prior to the first cut [2] - Treasury yields showed resilience, falling ahead of the first two cuts and stabilizing or steepening afterward, indicating a complex relationship between rate cuts and market performance [3][4]

Microsoft was down nearly 2% after reports it cut AI-related sales quotas. The company pushed back on that claim, which helped the stock rebound from session lows, but not enough to flip the tech group. Nvidia was slightly lower, and Broadcom slipped more than 1%. Same with Micron — down more than 1% as the AI complex took a breather. Sellers pushed on that pocket, but buyers elsewhere stepped in to offset the pressure.What’s Driving Sector Rotation TodayEnergy leads by a wide margin, up 1.6%, with financia ...

Think the adoption is going to be volatile. I think every company is going to have its own experiences. And the problem is we're going to get flooded with these individual narratives and it's going to weigh on the tape and it's going to hit certain names more than others.And then overall, the question is how long to product, how long to profitability and productivity. The volatility, I mean, isn't in the whole market, right. It's just a concentrated on these few names that move it.It doesn't seem that sever ...

AI 行业动态 - Alphabet 的 Gemini AI 聊天机器人用户增长迅速，8 月到 11 月全球月活跃用户增长 30%，但 OpenAI 的 ChatGPT 用户量仍然是 Gemini 的两倍以上 [2][3] - Anthropic 正在进行初步的 IPO 谈判 [3] - 市场对 Google 在 AI 领域的竞争潜力持乐观态度，认为 Google 有能力支付 AI 研发所需的费用，而 OpenAI 的盈利模式仍不明朗 [23] - 微软降低了 AI 软件的销售配额，可能表明 AI 软件的增长正在放缓 [27] - 预计到 2030 年，全球 AI 相关数据中心的投资将超过 7 万亿美元 [49] 劳动力市场与经济 - 美国 11 月 ADP 私营部门就业人数减少 32,000，为 2023 年以来最大降幅，其中员工人数少于 50 人的公司减少 12 万个工作岗位 [4] - 劳动力市场疲软，市场押注美联储 12 月会议降息的可能性接近 90%，远高于一个月前 [4][11] - 华尔街普遍对未来一年持乐观态度，预计 AI 繁荣、美联储降息和两位数的盈利增长将成为催化剂 [14] - 经济呈现 K 型复苏态势，高收入消费者受益于股市和房市，而低收入消费者面临压力 [9][10] 零售业表现 - Macy's 业绩超出预期并提高了全年指引，但对第四季度持谨慎态度，预计盈利和收入将同比下降 [5][34][36] - Macy's 的重塑门店表现优于整体 Macy's 投资组合，鞋类和美容是重点发展的新品类 [37][38] - Dollar Tree 业绩超出预期并提高了全年盈利预期，表明消费者优先考虑必需品，减少可自由支配支出 [6] - Bloomingdale's 销售额增长约 8.8%，受益于高收入消费者的良好表现 [38] 股票市场与投资 - 摩根大通预计 2026 年底标普 500 指数的目标为 7,500 点，如果通胀缓和且美联储继续放松政策，则可能达到 8,000 点 [17] - 华尔街联盟集团认为，市场领导者将从 AI 赢家转向 AI 赋能者，即构建和维护数据中心及基础设施的公司 [47] - 建议投资者关注建筑、设备、公用事业和电力等基础设施公司，因为这些公司是 AI 发展的基础 [53][55] - 认为比特币可以作为资产多元化工具，类似于黄金，并建议通过 Bitcoin ETF Ibit 进行投资 [56][57] 公司特定信息 - 达美航空因政府关闭导致 2 亿美元的利润损失，相当于每股收益 25 美分 [41] - Marvell 宣布将以至少 32.5 亿美元收购 Celestial AI，如果 Celestial 达到收入里程碑，收购价格可能增加到 55 亿美元 [42] - American Eagle 业绩超出预期并提高了指引，这得益于在商品销售、营销和运营方面采取的果断措施 [42][43]

QCP noted that the market has entered a wait-and-see phase after Monday’s volatility. Bitcoin is consolidating around $95,000, rebounding about 5% from recent lows, while equities and FX remain steady ahead of next week’s Fed meeting. The market broadly expects the next catalyst to come from changes in Federal Reserve leadership. Futures imply a roughly 90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting. https://t.co/jSbz8mSSMA ...

Market Overview - U.S. markets experienced a rocky start in December but show signs of recovery following a tumultuous November [1] - Bitcoin has partially recovered from its recent decline, and technology stocks rallied, indicating that investor appetite for market risk remains intact [2] Investor Sentiment - Investors are currently pricing in an 89.2% chance of a quarter percentage point rate cut at the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve meeting on December 10, a significant increase from previous expectations [3] - There is a shift in focus back to fundamentals, with markets concentrating on better-than-expected earnings projections for Q4 and 2026, alongside expectations for growth acceleration in the following year [4] Market Narrative - A narrative of cautious optimism is emerging as investors seek to close out the year positively, attempting to outweigh market noise [5]

Let's get to our next guest. That is Jake Doahhide, CEO at Longbo Asset Management. It has been a very long time.Jake, thank you so much for joining me today. It's so nice to see you on a day like this when obviously we've had a lot of conversations around what's going on with big cap tech. What do you make of the weakness we saw in November and some of the questions we're starting to see in the market about AI valuations, the circularity of financing and depreciation.Yeah, I think at some point the AI trad ...

The Dow led diverging US stocks on Wednesday as doubts over AI demand put pressure on tech, and a surprise fall in private-sector employment revealed cracks in the job market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose 0.4% while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) added 0.1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) pared gains to trade flat after the major gauges finished Tuesday with gains across the board. Microsoft (MSFT) helped spur a decline in tech stocks, with its shares down over 2% after The Information rep ...

And right now we are 2 minutes away from the end of the trading day. Romaine Bostick alongside Katie Greipel taking you through to that closing bell with the global simulcast. It started.There's Carol Massar. There's Tim Stenovec again, the radio booth. Welcome to our audiences across all of our Bloomberg platforms, including our partnership with YouTube.We had, I guess, Carol Massar what could be described as a bit of a rally in our hands, though we're seeing a fade, just a touch into the closing bell. Yea ...