Market Overview - The Indian benchmark indices ended with weekly gains of 1.5%, led by auto stocks and supported by banks and pharma stocks [14] - Nifty closed 108.50 points or 0.43% higher at 25,114, with support from PUT writers around the 25,000 mark [14][15] - Nifty is approaching its previous swing high of 25,150, which may lead to consolidation before advancing towards the 25,250–25,500 zone [10][15] US Market Influence - Wall Street ended mixed, with the Nasdaq hitting a record high close, while the Dow 30 declined by 273.78 points or 0.59% to 45,834.20 [4][14] - The S&P 500 settled at 6,584.29, down by 3.18 points or 0.05%, and the Nasdaq Composite closed at 22,141.10, falling by 98.03 points or 0.45% [4][14] - Domestic and global markets are expected to take cues from US market performance [5] Corporate Actions - Over 230 companies have corporate actions lined up this week, including dividends, stock splits, and bonus shares [6][15] - Notable corporate actions include a 2:1 bonus issue from Godfrey Phillips India and various stock splits from companies like Kesar Enterprises and Zydus Wellness [15] IPO Activity - India's primary market will see five IPOs this week, including the largest offering from Euro Pratik Sales with an issue size of Rs 451 crore [7][15] - The IPO for Euro Pratik Sales will open on September 16 and close on September 18, with a price band of Rs 235–247 per share [7][15] - In the SME segment, public issues from TechD Cybersecurity and JD Cables will also open for bidding [8][15] Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) - On Friday, FIIs inflows stood at Rs 129.6 crore, while DIIs were net buyers at Rs 1,556 crore [9][15] - In 2025, FIIs have sold shares worth Rs 1,41,417 crore, with August sell-off at Rs 10,782 crore [9][15] Currency and Commodities - The Indian rupee recovered from all-time lows, settling higher by 9 paise at 88.26 against the US dollar [12][15] - Oil prices rose due to a Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian port, with US WTI oil contracts ending at $62.60, down by $0.23 or 0.37%, and Brent oil futures hovering near $66.99, higher by $0.51 or 0.77% [13][14][15]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is currently in the spotlight due to recent headlines regarding potential rate cuts and changes in its governance structure [2][10] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is facing scrutiny over its decision-making process amid discussions of President Trump's influence on Fed nominations [3][10] FOMC Structure and Dynamics - The FOMC consists of seven Fed governors and five regional bank presidents, with the New York Fed president being a permanent voting member [5] - Recent changes include the resignation of Adriana Kugler and the nomination of Stephen Miran, which may allow him to participate in the upcoming FOMC meeting [4] - The FOMC has historically preferred unified decision outcomes, despite recent dissent from governors Waller and Bowman [6][10] Political Influence and Future Implications - There is speculation about President Trump potentially having a majority of his nominees on the Fed Board, which is not unprecedented in history [7][10] - Seven out of eleven candidates for the Fed chair position have experience on the FOMC, highlighting the importance of their roles in monetary policy [8] - Concerns regarding Fed independence could impact Treasury yields, although current market responses have been muted [9][10]

We are now officially 4 days out from the FOMC meeting. Yes, we will be talking about this as we do get closer to that September 17th date, but there is still a 100% probability of a rate cut happening on the 17th. We've been hearing a lot of rumors about possibly a one bps cut.I still think that it's probably going to be about roughly a 25 bps cut initially followed by possibly one in um October and then also one in December. But this is going to cause the markets to skyrocket. And even more recently, we j ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla and other technology stocks experienced a significant increase as investors prepare for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [1] Group 1 - Tesla's stock price surged alongside other tech stocks, indicating a positive market sentiment [1] - Investors are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's decisions, which could impact interest rates and market dynamics [1] - The anticipation of the Fed meeting has led to increased trading activity in the tech sector [1]

Central Bank Decisions - The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to be the most significant event next week, with other central banks like BOJ, BOE, and Bank of Canada also in focus [1] - A 25 basis point rate cut is widely anticipated, but the market will be more interested in the Fed's updated dot plot and qualitative commentary from Powell [2][3] - Markets have already priced in 25 basis point cuts at each of the final three meetings of the year, indicating limited room for more dovish guidance from the Fed [4] Economic Data - Recent economic data shows signs of a softening economy, particularly in the labor market, with disappointing job reports and a significant jump in weekly claims [5][6] - Consumer sentiment has also dropped, reinforcing expectations for the Fed to ease policy, while inflation remains above the Fed's target despite cooler-than-expected PPI data [7][8] Company Insights - FedEx is highlighted as a crucial earnings report next week, serving as a barometer for U.S. and global economic activity, particularly sensitive to trade dynamics [9] - There is concern regarding inventory levels as companies may have brought forward inventory to avoid tariffs, which could lead to inflationary pressures if replenishment occurs at higher post-tariff rates [10] - The closing of the dimminimous loophole is impacting many e-commerce companies, adding pressure to their operations [11] Trade Talks - Expectations for significant developments in China trade talks are low, with only headlines anticipated rather than any major agreements [12]

Currency Market - The euro rose by +0.03% after hawkish comments from ECB officials, indicating a potential end to the rate-cut cycle, contrasting with expectations of multiple rate cuts by the Fed [1] - The dollar index increased by +0.04% due to higher T-note yields, but fell back after a decline in consumer sentiment [5] - USD/JPY rose by +0.22% as political uncertainty in Japan and a commitment from US and Japanese officials to let markets determine currency rates reduced safe-haven demand for the yen [7][9] Inflation and Economic Sentiment - The University of Michigan's 1-year inflation expectations remained at +4.8%, while 5-10 year expectations rose unexpectedly to +3.9% [3] - The consumer sentiment index fell to a 4-month low of 55.4, indicating weaker consumer confidence than expected [3] Precious Metals - December gold closed up +0.35%, and silver rose +1.62%, supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts and increased geopolitical risks [10][11] - Gold prices are bolstered by central bank purchases, with China's PBOC increasing its gold reserves for the tenth consecutive month [11] - Political uncertainties in France and Japan are driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [12]

Group 1 - The market is anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, with a possibility of a 50 basis point cut being viewed as a "sell the news" event [2][12][5] - The current economic indicators show a weakening job market, with high claims and low job growth, which may influence the Fed's decision [3][5] - Sectors such as real estate and private equity are expected to benefit from a lower rate environment, while small caps may face challenges if economic conditions worsen [6][21][20] Group 2 - The Russell 2000 index is experiencing significant gains, indicating a potential catch-up trade for small caps, despite concerns about economic slowdown [9][15][19] - The performance of small caps is closely tied to capital market conditions, and lower rates could provide necessary support for refinancing [19][20] - The overall sentiment suggests that while there may not be a recession, small caps could struggle if consumer fundamentals deteriorate further [22][21]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's upcoming two-day meeting is a focal point for investors, with a 93% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut anticipated [1][2] - Companies such as FedEx, Lennar, and Meta are also in focus for their earnings reports next week, alongside the Fed meeting [1][2] - Dave & Buster's is highlighted for its improved technical strength, achieving a 90-plus relative strength rating [4] Group 2 - The stock market is experiencing mixed actions, with notable movements including FedEx's decline and Nvidia reaching an all-time high [4] - The market is preparing for significant events, including discussions around potential new leadership for the Federal Reserve and developments in sectors like drone technology and pharmaceuticals [4]

Inflation isn't cooling fast enough to relax Fed fears, housing may be stirring from its slump, and OPEN’s dramatic stock reversal reminds us this cycle is built for volatility.Inflation Slightly Warmer… Cutting Rates Isn't Debated, It's QuantifiedAugust's CPI report showed inflation climbing to 2.9% YoY, up from 2.7% in July, with core inflation steady at 3.1% . Monthly inflation also rose around +0.4% seasonally adjusted… enough to stoke the embers of rate-cut caution, but not pull the emergency brake.100 ...

Roger, we saw CPI. It came in in line, though it was the biggest month-over-month increase since January. But then we also got jobless claims, much higher than expected.Did that pretty much cement that Fed rate cut next week, or do you still think there are any questions at all. No, I think the rate cut next week is pretty much cemented. I think the question is how's the Fed going to communicate that it's staring at the most complex situation known as stagflation risk to both sides of the so-called dual man ...