Core Viewpoint - The analysis focuses on the performance and trading patterns of crude oil futures, particularly the United States Oil Fund ETF (USO), highlighting its recent underperformance and potential bullish signals. Group 1: Performance Analysis - The USO has underperformed the benchmark since late June [3] - A recent 15% correction from the peak during the Middle East crisis has occurred, with $64 acting as a significant support level [5] - The ETF is currently trading in the middle of the new July 6-month calendar range, which aligns with the 200-day moving average [3] Group 2: Technical Indicators - The momentum remains in a bullish divergence to price, indicating potential upward movement [3] - The ETF is above the 50-day moving average, with the 200-day moving average around $66.20 [4] - A move above the July calendar range high would be considered very bullish [3] Group 3: Trading Strategy - The safest trade is identified as one that clears the $68 level [5] - Holding above the $64 support level is seen as favorable for future performance [5]

Core Viewpoint - The individual investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on deep value opportunities, particularly in stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, while also considering insider buying as a positive signal [1] Investment Strategy - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, indicating a balanced approach to risk and potential returns [1] - The investor's timeframe for holding positions typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, suggesting a medium-term investment horizon [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, with a focus on support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1] Stock Selection Criteria - The investor screens for stocks that have undergone recent sell-offs, particularly when there is insider buying at the new lower price, indicating potential recovery [1] - Professional background checks are conducted on insiders who purchase shares post-sell-off, adding a layer of due diligence to the investment process [1] Market Focus - The primary focus is on stocks in the US market, although there is openness to investing in companies from less stable economies, referred to as "banana republics" [1]

Core Insights - Radian Group Inc. (RDN) shares closed at $36.32, near its 52-week high, indicating strong investor confidence and potential for further price appreciation [1] - The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, suggesting solid upward momentum [1] Company Performance - RDN has gained 14.5% year to date, outperforming its industry and the Finance sector, which grew by 7.7% and 8.9%, respectively [3][4] - The company has outperformed peers such as Old Republic International Corporation (3.7% gain), MetLife, Inc. (2.1% loss), and Assurant, Inc. (10% loss) [4] Market Outlook - The private mortgage insurance market is expected to remain around $300 billion in 2025, with RDN focusing on core, fee-based businesses for growth [7][18] - RDN's revenue for 2025 is estimated at $1.26 billion, reflecting a year-over-year improvement of 0.9% [9] Valuation Metrics - RDN shares are trading at a forward price-to-book value of 1.12X, significantly lower than the industry average of 2.73X and the Finance sector's 4.27X [8] - The average price target for RDN is $36.83, suggesting a potential upside of 0.74% from the last closing price [11] Analyst Sentiment - One of the two analysts covering RDN has raised estimates for 2025 and 2026, leading to a 1.06% and 1.3% increase in consensus estimates, respectively [10] Financial Health - RDN has been strengthening its capital position through capital contributions and reinsurance transactions, allowing for dividend hikes and share buybacks [17] - The company has increased its quarterly dividend by 4.1% in Q1 2025, marking the sixth consecutive year of dividend increases, with a current yield of 2.8% [19] Growth Drivers - New business growth and rising annual persistency rates are expected to expand RDN's insurance-in-force portfolio [7][16] - The company has a solid track record of beating earnings estimates, averaging a 12.45% surprise over the last four quarters [9]

Core Viewpoint - Occidental Petroleum Corp. has faced skepticism due to a 27% decline in shares over the past year, but recent technical indicators suggest a potential rebound and bullish trend [1][2][3] Technical Analysis - The stock has rebounded nearly 9% in the past month, breaking above its eight, 20, and 50-day simple moving averages, indicating a shift to a bullish trend [1][2] - Current share price is $45.49, above the eight-day SMA of $45.26, 20-day SMA of $43.14, and 50-day SMA of $41.53, although still below the 200-day SMA of $47.67 [2][3] - Technical indicators such as MACD at 1.06 and RSI at 61.52 suggest building momentum, with room for further gains before overheating occurs [2][3] Fundamental Analysis - Occidental is projected to generate $1.5 billion in incremental annual free cash flow by 2027, independent of oil price fluctuations [4] - The company's expanding carbon capture and storage initiatives and potential benefits from rising crude prices enhance its long-term attractiveness [4] - Warren Buffett's investment strategy focuses on long-term value rather than short-term price movements, indicating confidence in Occidental's fundamentals [5]

QUALCOMM TodayQCOMQUALCOMM$155.22 +0.76 (+0.49%) 52-Week Range$120.80▼$230.63Dividend Yield2.29%P/E Ratio15.76Price Target$190.28Add to WatchlistQualcomm Inc NASDAQ: QCOM closed just under $155 as the bell rang to end Tuesday's session, continuing to cool somewhat from last week's multi-month high. The pullback comes after shares gained more than 30% from April's low, marking one of Qualcomm's better rallies of the past year. But to keep some perspective on things, after a move like that, taking a breather ...

Group 1 - Canada Goose (GOOS) has reached a key level of support and recently crossed above the 20-day moving average, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1] - The 20-day simple moving average (SMA) is a popular trading tool that helps smooth out short-term price trends and provides trend reversal signals [2][3] - GOOS has moved 27.4% higher over the last four weeks, and it is currently rated as a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) stock [5] Group 2 - Positive earnings estimate revisions support the bullish case for GOOS, with no estimates decreasing in the past two months and one estimate increasing [5] - Investors are encouraged to monitor GOOS for potential gains due to its key technical level and favorable earnings revisions [6]

Investment Strategy - The company employs a contrarian investment style, focusing on high-risk, illiquid options and shares [1] - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, with a typical investment timeframe of 3-24 months [1] - The company targets stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, particularly when insiders are buying shares at lower prices [1] Screening and Analysis - Fundamental analysis is utilized to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] - Professional background checks are conducted on insiders who purchase shares after sell-offs to ensure credibility [1] - Technical analysis is employed to optimize entry and exit points, using multicolor lines for support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1]

Small deep value individual investor, with a modest private investment portfolio, split approx. 50%-50% between shares and call options. I have a B.Sc. in aeronautical engineering and over 6 years of experience as an engineering consultant in the aerospace sector. The latter statement is not relevant in any way whatsoever to my investment style, but I thought to add it for self-indulgent purposes. I have a contrarian investment style, highly risky, and often dealing with illiquid options. How illiquid? Well ...

Group 1: Company Performance Expectations - NVIDIA is expected to have a strong Q1 performance, with market anticipation for a potential surge of 50% or more following a positive catalyst [1] - Analysts forecast a robust 66% revenue gain for NVIDIA, with a 12-month stock price forecast averaging $167.53, indicating a 27.60% upside from the current price of $131.29 [9][11] - The company has significant deals in Saudi Arabia that could contribute to high-single-digit to mid-teens revenue growth relative to 2025 [10] Group 2: Technical Analysis Indicators - Technical analysis shows at least five bullish signals for NVIDIA, including the MACD histogram and stochastic oscillator, indicating a shift from bearish to bullish momentum [2][3] - The price action is demonstrating a strong trend-following bounce, coinciding with critical technical price support [4] - The market rebound in May has resulted in the price action being above the 30- and 150-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), forming a Golden Crossover, which is a bullish indicator [6][7] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Analyst Ratings - Despite a slight bearish revision trend, 85% of analysts covering NVIDIA rate it as a "Buy," with a high forecast price of $220.00 aligning with technical targets [12] - The stock is currently on MarketBeat's Most Downgraded Stocks list, but the consensus still indicates a moderate buy rating with potential for significant upside [11][12] - Resistance is noted at the $140 level, but a solid earnings report could lead to a breakout above this level, potentially pushing the stock above $200 [8]

Core Viewpoint - W.R. Berkley Corporation (WRB) is experiencing strong investor confidence, with its stock price near a 52-week high and solid upward momentum indicated by moving averages [1][5]. Financial Performance - Earnings of W.R. Berkley grew by 27.8% over the last five years, outperforming the industry average of 18.9% [2]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for W.R. Berkley's 2025 earnings per share indicates a year-over-year increase of 2.9%, with revenues projected at $14.35 billion, reflecting a 6.1% improvement [9]. - Return on equity for the trailing 12 months was 19.6%, significantly higher than the industry's 8.3% [10]. Stock Performance - Shares of W.R. Berkley have gained 38.3% in the past year, outperforming the Finance sector and the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which grew by 15.9% and 8.3%, respectively [5][6]. Growth Strategy - W.R. Berkley is focusing on commercial lines, including excess and surplus lines, where it holds a competitive advantage [12]. - The company's insurance business is expected to grow due to new startup units, international expansion, rate increases, and high retention [13][14]. Valuation - W.R. Berkley shares are trading at a premium, with a price-to-book value of 3.08X compared to the industry average of 1.61X [15]. - The company has been consistently increasing dividends since 2005, with a dividend yield of 0.4%, which is attractive compared to the industry average of 0.2% [18].