Core Viewpoint - The crude oil market is showing signs of stabilization, with a potential breakout above $59 per barrel, supported by technical indicators and market momentum [1][2][3]. Crude Oil Market Analysis - A counter trend signal on the Demark indicators suggests up to 9 weeks of stabilization for crude oil prices, with expectations of lifting above the 50-day moving average [1]. - Current support for crude oil is around $55 per barrel, and if this level holds, a breakout to approximately $68 per barrel is anticipated in the intermediate term [3]. Energy Sector Performance - The energy sector is experiencing a rotation, with some individual stocks gaining momentum while technology and other sectors are losing it [4]. - Companies like SLB are highlighted as having a long-term turnaround underway, with a base breakout following a downtrend, indicating a potential entry point for investors [5][6]. Specific Company Insights - SLB is identified as a key stock to watch, with a favorable chart pattern suggesting a positive outlook [5][6]. - Target Resources (TRGP) is also noted for its secular uptrend, having recently experienced a breakout that positions former resistance as new support [7]. - Other companies such as Halliburton and Exxon Mobil are mentioned as poised to benefit from the anticipated breakout in crude oil prices [7].

Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue its upward momentum in the coming weeks, with the S&P potentially reaching around 7,200 [2] - However, there are expectations of a significant correction next year, possibly around 15%, or even a bear market [3][10] - The current market trends show strong performance, with the S&P maintaining higher highs and higher lows above the 50-day moving average [5] Presidential Cycle Impact - The second year of the presidential cycle typically yields below-average returns, averaging around 3-4% gains, and is often associated with market corrections [7][10] - The upcoming midterm elections and related uncertainties are anticipated to create volatility in the market [6][11] Technology Sector Challenges - The technology sector may face headwinds next year, diverging from the previous trend where all sectors rose together [9] - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's policies is expected to persist until at least April or May, contributing to market challenges [10] Precious Metals Outlook - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are in a generational bull market, having bottomed in 2020, with expectations for continued upward movement [12] - Silver is projected to trade between 80 to 85 before experiencing a significant pullback, while gold is expected to reach at least 5,000, with potential for an extension up to 7,000 [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - Intel is facing pressure following a report that Nvidia has halted testing of Intel's 18A chip production process, which Nvidia was considering for its own chip manufacturing [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Intel's shares have increased over 35% since Nvidia's $5 billion investment announcement in September [1] - Year-to-date, Intel has shown strong outperformance, particularly in recent months, outperforming both the tech sector and semiconductor industry [2][3] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The stock is currently at a critical juncture, with significant long-term resistance and support levels identified between 15 to 20 [2] - Recent price movements indicate a potential breakout point, with key levels at 33 and 36 serving as notable support and resistance [5][6] - The 21, 5, and 63-day exponential moving averages are closely aligned with current prices, indicating a potential inflection point around 36 to 37 [6] Group 3: Trading Strategy - A cash-secured put strategy is suggested for investors looking to buy shares if the stock price falls, with a strike price of 34 and a potential profit of approximately $100 per put sold [10][12] - The break-even price for this strategy would be around $33, factoring in the premium collected from the put sale [12][13] - This strategy allows for profit if the stock remains above 34 over the next three and a half weeks, while also preparing for potential share acquisition if the price drops [14]

Group 1 - The article discusses the search for a small-cap value ETF to gain exposure to the US stock market, highlighting the importance of size and value as investment factors [1] - The author emphasizes a quantitative approach to equity analysis, focusing on cash flow potential, relative value, and economic moat, while also integrating technical analysis to enhance investment success [1] - The author has a strong background in public accounting and economics, holding master's degrees from the University of Notre Dame and the University of Virginia, and has experience in researching sovereign debt defaults [1] Group 2 - The author is actively involved in writing educational content on investing and economic topics, including a YouTube channel dedicated to these subjects [1]

Group 1 - Village Farms (VFF) is shifting from a low-margin grower to a cannabis regulatory platform, focusing on cost structure and distribution discipline rather than packaging or branding [1] - Investors continue to treat Village Farms as a traditional grower despite its transition to a regulatory platform [1] Group 2 - The investment strategy discussed combines technical analysis with the CAN SLIM methodology to identify high-growth companies often overlooked by mainstream analysts [1] - The research process integrates both fundamental and technical perspectives, paying attention to indicators such as relative strength, unusual trading volume, and earnings acceleration [1] - The goal is to spot opportunities early before broader market recognition drives prices higher [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has reclaimed the $90,000 mark, indicating a potential bullish trend driven by technical breakouts, derivatives positioning, and ETF incentives during a period of low liquidity at year-end [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The resurgence of Bitcoin above $90,000 has sparked bullish momentum across the crypto market, with analysts divided on expectations of volatility versus a push towards six-figure prices [2]. - Technical analysis shows Bitcoin breaking out of a descending triangle into a descending wedge, suggesting a recovery rally is underway [3]. Group 2: Valuation Metrics - On-chain valuation metrics indicate potential for further upside, with Bitcoin's realized price significantly below current market levels, suggesting it is trading above fair value but still below typical cycle peak levels [4]. Group 3: Volatility Risks - Short-term volatility risks are increasing, particularly with a significant derivatives expiration approaching, involving approximately $24 billion in Bitcoin options and contracts set to expire [5].

Core Insights - Investor sentiment is a significant driver of market action, often more so than headline news [1] - A bearish engulfing candle on the weekly chart of the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) indicates a potential shift in market dynamics as year-end approaches [2][3] Weekly Candlestick Analysis - Candlesticks represent the battle between buyers and sellers over a specific timeframe, with weekly charts providing more meaningful insights due to the aggregation of five trading days [4] - The recent QQQ candle exhibited key characteristics that highlight this shift in sentiment [5] Implications of the Bearish Engulfing Candle - The formation of a bearish engulfing candle does not predict an imminent crash but suggests a shift in control from buyers to sellers [8] - Historical candlestick theory indicates that such patterns often lead to follow-through in market behavior for the next 3-5 candles [6] Daily Chart Confirmation - The influence of higher timeframes on lower ones is a powerful concept in technical analysis, as evidenced by the behavior observed in the daily chart following the weekly engulfing candle [7] Current Market Behavior - Following the bearish engulfing candle, QQQ opened higher but subsequently traded lower, closing below the prior week's low and printing lower highs and lower lows [9]

Core Viewpoint - First Capital (FCAP) is experiencing significant stock price appreciation, driven by strong technical momentum and positive investor sentiment, despite limited analyst coverage [5][6]. Company Overview - First Capital is a holding company valued at $233 million, primarily engaged in residential mortgage loan origination through its subsidiary, First Federal Bank [1][4]. - The bank also originates consumer, commercial business, commercial real estate, and residential construction loans [1]. Stock Performance - FCAP has surged 132% over the past year, reaching a new 5-year high of $70.05 on December 18 [5][3]. - The stock gained 46.56% since the Trend Seeker "Buy" signal was issued on November 21 [2]. - Recently traded at $69.47 with a 50-day moving average of $47.92 [6]. Technical Indicators - FCAP has a Weighted Alpha of +128.71 and a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 85.36, indicating strong momentum [6]. - The stock maintains a 100% "Buy" opinion from Barchart, with 16 new highs and a gain of 51.91% in the last month [5][6]. Investor Sentiment - While Wall Street has not yet recognized First Capital, individual investors have shown positive sentiment towards the stock [7]. - The trailing price-earnings ratio is 15.05x, and the dividend yield is 1.78% [8].

Core Insights - The Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF (TACK) employs a model-driven approach based on technical analysis to adapt to various market conditions, focusing on long-term trends and major reversals [1] - TACK aims to leverage sector leadership while minimizing risk during market downturns through strategic asset allocation [1] Market Performance - In November, the SPDR® S&P 500 ETF (SPY) experienced a decline of 5.76% from its October high but recovered to finish the month with a total return of 0.20%, while TACK ended nearly unchanged at -0.04% [2] - Significant sector-level shifts were observed, particularly with the Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund (XLK) declining by 4.81%, indicating a potential transition within the technology sector [3] Risk Management and Strategy Adjustments - Increased market volatility is seen as the beginning of a significant correction, with weakened intermediate-term momentum and deteriorating breadth, prompting a focus on risk management as 2025 approaches [4] - In response to rising risks, TACK adjusted its allocation from the Financial Select Sector SPDR® Fund (XLF) to the more defensive Health Care Select Sector SPDR® Fund (XLV) [5] Sector Performance - The Health Care Select Sector SPDR® Fund (XLV) achieved a total return of 9.30% in November, marking its fourth-strongest month since inception, suggesting a bullish momentum shift for the healthcare sector [6] - The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence Indicator (MACD) recently signaled a 'buy' for XLV, indicating a positive long-term momentum shift and a reversal of the previous downtrend [7] Relative Performance Outlook - XLV's performance in November led to strong outperformance compared to SPY, with expectations for better relative performance for XLV and its underlying healthcare stocks in 2026 [8]

Market Overview - The equity markets ended marginally lower, with the BSE Sensex closing at 84,559.65, down 120.21 points or 0.14 percent, and the NSE Nifty falling 41.55 points or 0.16 percent to settle at 25,818.55 [2][9] - Nearly two-thirds of traded stocks declined, with 2,761 out of 4,328 stocks on the BSE experiencing losses, and 196 stocks hitting 52-week lows [2][3] Currency Impact - The Indian rupee opened at a record low of 91.07 against the US dollar but briefly recovered to 89.96 before falling back above 90, influenced by continued foreign outflows [3][4] - The rupee's volatility is expected to persist, with predictions of trading in the 89.80–90.80 range [4] Sector Performance - Among sectoral indices, Nifty PSU Bank saw a gain of 1.20 percent, while Nifty Media dropped by 1.80 percent, with Nifty Realty and FMCG also lagging [6] - The Nifty Midcap 100 declined by 321.95 points or 0.54 percent, and the Nifty Smallcap 100 fell by 126.60 points or 0.73 percent [6] Notable Stock Movements - Shriram Finance led the gainers, rising 2.07 percent to ₹866.00, followed by State Bank of India at ₹976.35, Hindalco at ₹848.00, Eicher Motors at ₹7,143.00, and Tata Consumer at ₹1,180.00 [7] - On the losing side, Max Healthcare plunged 3.71 percent to ₹1,033.20, Apollo Hospitals fell 1.98 percent to ₹6,912.00, and HDFC Life slipped 1.49 percent to ₹752.95 [8] Technical Analysis - The market faced resistance near 25,920/84,900, forming a bearish candle on daily charts, indicating a negative trend [9] - A decisive slip below 25,700 could trigger a correction towards 25,500–25,400, while the 25,950-26,000 zone is expected to act as crucial resistance [10]