Serbia’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged for an 11th month with growing inflation risks taking precedence over weaker economic growth https://t.co/Kwke6sYOqa ...

Economic Uncertainty & Recession Risks - Uncertainty, stemming from policy, geopolitical factors, and President Trump's attacks on the Federal Reserve, poses a significant threat to US economic growth [1][2] - Recession risks are higher than average, though not overwhelming, as the US consumer remains resilient [7][9] - Corporate investment is hindered by uncertainty, impacting medium to longer-term plans [5] Monetary Policy & Inflation - It's difficult to argue for lower interest rates currently due to uncertainty about future inflation [11] - There are no overwhelming signs of weakening economic activity that would call for monetary policy stimulus [12] - The pass-through of tariffs into higher prices has been modest so far, but it's still early stages [11] Immigration & Demographics - Slower population growth due to immigration shocks negatively impacts medium-term potential output [8][9] - Aging populations and declining birth rates in the US and other advanced economies impact potential growth [14] - Immigration has historically contributed to trend growth in the US economy [8][14] Debt & Fiscal Policy - The US budget bill is estimated to add at least $3 trillion to the deficit over the next 9 to 10 years [15] - High debt levels and debt servicing costs are a concern, potentially hindering more productive investments [17][18] Globalization & Trade - Globalization has been off its peak since the global financial crisis [20] - While globalization has benefited consumers through cheaper products, it has also led to a hollowing out of various sectors in the US [20][22] - Increased global cooperation is preferred over a fragmented system [22] Global Debt Crisis - The unfolding debt crisis in low-income countries is something to watch, as it could amplify to emerging markets with bigger footprints [24][25]

Indonesia’s economy is growing at its fastest pace in two years. Not all consumers are buying it. https://t.co/JZL7cAjUrl ...

Bank of America CEO Brian Moyahan says he does does not expect a recession despite today's disappointing ISM data. Take a listen to what he said. >> Our economists believe there'll be no recession.They believe the econ the economy in the US will go about 1 one and a half% this year. They believe that the Fed will not cut rates because inflation will take longer to get down. >> That the Fed will not cut rates >> during 25.They'll cut them at 26. And that they've been on that for a long time. And they believe ...

Market Outlook & Economic Growth - HSBC raises S&P 500 target to 6400, with a bull case of 7000 driven by AI optimism [2] - AI is seen as the primary driver of US economic growth, as consumer spending and labor market gains slow down [3] - The market may be adjusting to a slower pace of economic and services growth [4] - Earnings growth is concentrated in S&P 100 and Nasdaq companies, particularly in industrial sectors related to grid and data center build-outs [5] - Cloud computing and data center related activities are experiencing significant growth [6] Interest Rates & Fed Policy - Potential Fed rate cuts could revitalize the housing market and boost consumer spending [7] - The market is in a historically choppy period, with uncertainty surrounding the Fed's actions [9] - The market is awaiting signals from the Federal Reserve regarding potential rate cuts in September, which could stimulate the housing market [11] - There's debate on whether the Fed will cut rates due to concerns about inflation remaining above target, even with a potentially weakening labor market [14] - Some believe the Fed will prioritize caution and cut rates at the first sign of labor market weakness [15] Market Volatility & Investment Strategy - August is typically a volatile month for market performance [10][12] - Small position sizing is recommended in the current choppy market environment due to uncertainty about Fed rate cuts [13] - A potential 5-7% pullback from the high is anticipated, possibly triggered by weaker-than-expected ISM services data [19] - The market's reaction to upcoming jobless claims data will be important [20]

Economic Policy & Labor Market - A Japanese government panel recommended a record minimum wage increase for the second consecutive year [1] - The wage increase sends a positive signal to the Bank of Japan [1] - The policy aims to pursue demand-led economic growth in Japan [1]

Joining us right now is Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird's Private Wealth Management. And there's not a whole heck of a lot of a dip here, Ross. If this qualifies as a dip, I don't know.>> Yeah, I think you're right. I mean, we came into uh the fall anticipating that look, we had this great three-month rally. We knew about all these headwinds, tariffs coming into play on August 1.Now we have the the Fed and the the non-farm payrolls report kind of weighing. So, expecting a bit more of a correct ...

Politicization and weaponization of the Fed and key economic jobs could make it harder for President Trump to get his nominees confirmed by the Senate. For more on this, we want to bring in Libby Cantrell, who is head of public policy at PIMCO. Libby, it's it's kind of hard to think of the president getting shut down over an economic appointee, particularly given how much power he's had and how much sway he has had with the Senate controlled House and Senate lately.But why do you think things are going to b ...

Economic Growth & Slowdown - America's economic growth may be slowing [1] - Weaker output is indicated by recent data [1] Factors Contributing to Slowdown - Tariffs are taking their toll [1] - Economic uncertainty is impacting growth [1] - Curbs on migration are contributing to the slowdown [1] - Attacks on institutions such as the Federal Reserve are having an effect [1]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 President Trump says the US will 'boom' in five or six months from now. https://t.co/YQOJqpq3iZ ...