Just she ready reaction to this call in that dissent. I don't think it was at all surprising. The two dissents could have been a bit more interesting.I think Myron could have gone for 75 basis points. After all, he wanted 50 last time. So there's 25 that he's owed, plus another 50 this time.That would have been fun. And Schmitt, where was he last meeting. Where was he last meeting.Now, you've had more evidence that the labour market is feeling a bit sponge year and inflation's not as much of a threat as we ...

We have some numbers um that Kristen Welker put up um in a story about Donald Trump's approval ratings for uh the economy and most of them are below 40%. Lowest numbers he's ever had. >> He's all over the world.You've got a government shutdown. You've got uh one in four, one in five Americans who depend on food assistance not going to get it. You have health care prices absolutely exploding.Uh you still have concerns about inflation. You've got a 20 to40 billion bailout of Argentina. You also of course you ...

Core Points - The US central bank has cut interest rates for the second time this year, reducing the rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a range of 3.75%-4% [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates comes despite the government shutdown, which has frozen non-essential government functions and delayed the release of key economic data [2] - Inflation data showed a 3% increase in September, which is one percentage point above the Fed's 2% target, but lower than economists' expectations, allowing for the rate cut [3] Group 1: Interest Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve has implemented a second interest rate cut this year, responding to pressures from President Trump [1] - The current interest rate is set in a range, differing from the single percentage approach used in the UK [1] Group 2: Economic Data and Assessment - The government shutdown has resulted in the absence of crucial employment figures, complicating the Fed's ability to assess economic conditions [2] - The Fed's dual mandate includes maintaining maximum employment and steady inflation, which is challenged by the lack of data [2] Group 3: Inflation Concerns - Inflation reached 3% in September, exceeding the Fed's target but not as high as anticipated, easing concerns over inflation driven by trade policies [3] - The Fed's decision to cut rates is influenced by the absence of significant inflationary pressures despite ongoing trade tensions [3] Group 4: Political Pressure - President Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with the Fed and its chair, Jerome Powell, even threatening to remove him over rate decisions [5][6] - The political climate surrounding the Fed's independence has been strained due to Trump's actions and comments regarding rate-setting officials [5][6] Group 5: Market Reactions - The anticipation of an interest rate cut has positively impacted US and European stock markets, leading to record highs in major stock indexes [8]

Market Overview - The market is experiencing record highs, driven by significant events such as the Fed decision and Nvidia reaching a $5 trillion market cap [1][12] - There is a notable concentration of performance among a narrow set of technology stocks, leading to perplexity among portfolio managers [2][3] Performance Discrepancies - The S&P 500 is outperforming the S&P equal weight index, indicating a disparity in market performance [3][10] - The recent trading day saw the S&P close up 0.23% with a net advanced decline line of -294, marking the worst breadth day for an up day since 1990 [10][11] AI Influence - Companies that adopt AI are seeing productivity increases, which may lead to a positive halo effect, although the overall market breadth remains weak [7][8] - The discussion highlights the potential for AI to drive performance in selective companies, despite concerns about broader market implications [7][8] Economic Cycle Considerations - There is a debate about whether the market is in a late cycle phase, with some arguing that the current economic indicators do not align with typical late cycle behavior [19][21] - The market appears detached from economic realities, with cooling economic activity not reflected in stock performance [24][25] Future Outlook - The upcoming earnings reports from major companies are anticipated to influence market dynamics, with a focus on large-cap stocks [12][18] - The potential for rising unemployment and its impact on consumer spending is a significant concern for the market moving forward [9][26]

The Fed just cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The second rate cut this year as officials try to shore up a cooling labor market. With the government still shut down, the Fed is essentially flying blind.No jobs report, no retail sales data, not even a full read on GDP. But policy makers leaned on private data, anecdotal surveys that all point to the same thing. Hiring is slowing.This cut was widely expected. Markets had priced it in at nearly 100%. The big question now is whether this move was the last ...

With the market already pricing in a quarter percentage point cut, my next guests are now focusing on the potential end of quantitative tightening. So joining us now are Michael Schumacher, head of macro strategy over at Wells Fargo, and Ross Mayfield, investment strategist over at Baird. Thank you gentlemen both for being here.Michael, we're going to start with you. This is probably one of the more telegraphed rate moves that the Fed has seen and the markets are playing it that way as well. What exactly do ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is showing signs of weakness, with real GDP growth at 1.6% in the first half of 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024, indicating potential underlying issues despite positive top-line numbers [3] - Unemployment rose to 4.3% in August, the highest since 2021, with nearly 1 million layoffs reported through September, a 55% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [2] Inflation and Consumer Behavior - Inflation has increased by 3% year over year as of September, up from 2.3% in April, largely influenced by tariffs affecting corporate supply chains [1] - Companies are reporting a decline in visits from lower-income customers, with McDonald's and O'Reilly Auto Parts noting reduced spending on dining and auto repairs, respectively [6] Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have recently experienced volatility, dropping 3.5% after a significant 6% decline on October 21, with prices falling below $4,000 per ounce, raising concerns among investors [5] - Bank of America has revised its gold forecast, predicting a bearish target of $3,800 per ounce for Q4 2025, but sees potential for prices to rise to $5,000 per ounce in 2026 due to structural drivers remaining in place [11][16] Investment Strategies - Analysts suggest that long-term holders of gold will need to continue supporting demand through exchange-traded funds, while central banks are expected to diversify away from the U.S. Dollar [4] - Historical analysis indicates that adding a 5% gold allocation to traditional investment portfolios could yield higher returns, suggesting a shift towards a 60:20:20 portfolio structure [17]

Group 1 - The US central bank, the Federal Reserve, has cut interest rates for the second time this year, reducing the rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a range of 3.75%-4% [1] - The decision to cut rates was made despite the government shutdown, which has frozen non-essential government functions and delayed the release of key economic data [2] - Inflation data showed a rise to 3% in September, which is 1 percentage point above the Fed's target of 2%, but lower than economists' expectations, allowing for the rate cut [3] Group 2 - Fed Chair Jerome Powell has warned that the US economy is expected to grow less, and goods may become more expensive due to increased import taxes and supply disruptions [4] - President Trump has expressed frustration with the Fed, particularly targeting Powell's leadership and attempting to remove a rate-setter from her position [5][6] - The anticipation of an interest rate cut has positively influenced US and European stock markets, leading to record highs in major stock indexes [8]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates for the second consecutive month, responding to pressure from President Donald Trump for more significant cuts [1][2] - The Federal Open Market Committee voted 10-2 to reduce rates by a quarter-point to a range of 3.75% to 4% [2] - There is speculation about a potential additional quarter-point reduction in December, which could lower rates to between 3.5% and 3.75% [3] Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve's recent decision marks a continued easing of monetary policy, with a focus on addressing economic pressures [1][2] - The current interest rate range is now between 3.75% and 4%, down from the previous range of 4% to 4.25% [2] Economic Outlook - Fed officials are divided on the necessity of further rate cuts, with ongoing uncertainty due to a federal government shutdown affecting economic data availability [3] - Fed Governor Christopher Waller has indicated a shift in focus towards a "softening" labor market rather than inflation, suggesting caution in future rate adjustments [3] Leadership Considerations - There is anticipation regarding President Trump's potential nomination for a new Fed Chair, as Jerome Powell's term expires in May 2026 [4] - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned five candidates under consideration for the role, indicating a possible shift in Fed leadership dynamics [4]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by a quarter point for the second consecutive meeting, lowering the rates to a range of 3.75% to 4%, marking the first time since 2022 that rates have dipped below 4% [1][5] - Policymakers are divided on the decision, with some advocating for caution due to potential inflation impacts from tariffs, while others believe that inflation effects will be temporary and support aggressive rate cuts to stimulate labor market growth [2] - Stephen Miran, the newest Fed governor, voted against the quarter-point cut, advocating instead for a half-point reduction, while Jeffrey Schmid opposed the decision, preferring rates to remain unchanged due to inflation concerns [3][9] Economic Context - The decision to cut rates was influenced by economic reports, including a Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase to 3% in September, which was slightly lower than expected, facilitating the rate cut [6] - The ongoing government shutdown has affected data collection and analysis by agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics, raising concerns about the availability of future economic reports, including the October inflation report [7]