Group 1 - AI continues to be a significant theme for investors and technology enthusiasts, with expectations for increased focus in 2026 [1] - The rapid evolution of AI, particularly through language learning models (LLMs), is expected to enhance adoption rates, benefiting companies within the QQQ and QQQM portfolios [2] - The computational power for training AI models is increasing significantly, with American labs reportedly gathering about 10 times the computational power for their next models [3] Group 2 - Over the past three years, QQQ and QQQM have posted an average return of approximately 127%, outperforming the S&P 500's 81.7% return [4] - There is potential for QQQ and QQQM to generate further upside in 2026, despite skepticism from some investors [4] - The adoption of AI at the industry level, particularly in sectors like financial services, is crucial for the growth of AI equities in 2026 [6] Group 3 - Financial services can significantly benefit from AI, as it streamlines processes that involve handling large amounts of paperwork [7]

Let's get right to Ron Baron. He is the chairman and CEO of Baron Capital, which has $45 billion in assets under management. Ron is joining us ahead of the 32nd annual Baron Investment Conference.And Ron, it is great to see you this morning. >> Great to see you, too. >> So, 32 years.We've been doing this for a long time. Not 32 years on Squawkbox talking to you on the morning of your annual investment, but a long time. >> Amazing.>> Um, and we're going to jump into the investment, but I want to ask you beca ...

Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown has ended, providing potential for a sustained rally in Wall Street, but global market stability remains uncertain due to high valuations in artificial intelligence [1] - Economic uncertainty and high market valuations are causing investors to be increasingly cautious, despite signs of easing U.S.-China trade tensions [2] Economic Indicators - Corporate layoffs surged by 183.1% in October, the highest increase in nearly two decades, attributed to cost-cutting and AI-driven restructuring [3] - Retail sales for the upcoming holiday season are expected to grow by 3.7% to 4.2%, reaching approximately $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion, although this growth is slower than the previous year's 4.3% increase [4] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 is projected at 1.2% year over year, with S&P Global forecasting below-trend growth due to ongoing policy uncertainty [5] Market Valuation Concerns - The U.S. stock market has risen over 30% since April, but the "Buffett Indicator" suggests potential overheating, as the total market capitalization of U.S. stocks is now around $72 trillion, more than double the GDP [6][7] Investment Strategies - In a volatile market, dividend ETFs are becoming increasingly attractive for investors seeking steady income alongside capital gains [8] - Not all dividend stocks serve the same purpose; high-yield stocks provide current income, while dividend growth stocks indicate quality investing [9] - Low-priced dividend ETFs are recommended as they offer higher growth potential and affordability compared to higher-priced stocks [10] Dividend ETFs Overview - Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) priced at $27.16, yielding 3.80% annually [11][12] - Capital Group Dividend Value ETF (CGDV) priced at $43.37, yielding 1.28% annually [13] - State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend ETF (SPYD) priced at $43.25, yielding 4.52% annually [14] - iShares International Select Dividend ETF (IDV) priced at $38.36, yielding 4.53% annually [15] - First Trust Morningstar Dividend Leaders Index Fund (FDL) priced at $43.69, yielding 4.65% annually [16] - Amplify CWP Enhanced Dividend Income ETF (DIVO) priced at $45.53, yielding 4.46% annually [17]

Summary of Global Oil Demand Forecast through 2040 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global oil industry, specifically forecasting oil demand growth through 2040, highlighting the impact of energy demand and low-carbon technology limitations [2][4][8]. Key Forecasts and Insights - **Oil Demand Growth**: Global oil demand is projected to increase from 103.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2024 to 113.0 mb/d in 2040, with an annual average growth rate of 0.6 mb/d (0.5% CAGR) [2][8]. - **Road Transportation**: Oil demand for road transportation is expected to rise until 2030, driven by the growth in electric vehicle (EV) sales and LNG trucks in China. A peak is anticipated in 2030, followed by a gradual decline [2][18][20]. - **Air Transportation**: Air transportation oil demand is forecasted to grow at an annual average rate of 2.4% (0.2 mb/d) through 2040, primarily due to rising incomes in non-OECD countries [2][26]. - **Petrochemical Demand**: As road oil demand plateaus, petrochemical demand (naphtha, ethane, LPG) is expected to become the main driver of oil demand growth, with an average annual growth rate of 0.5 mb/d (2.1% CAGR) [2][32]. Supporting Arguments - **Drivers of Oil Demand**: - Limited alternatives for jet fuel and petrochemicals due to technological bottlenecks [2][12]. - Energy demand growth is expected to outpace oil displacement by low-carbon alternatives, leading to a long plateau in road oil demand post-2030 [2][57]. - An indirect boost to oil demand from AI is estimated at 3 mb/d by 2040, linked to higher global GDP [2][49]. Risks and Challenges - **Downside Risks**: Potential faster advancements in low-carbon technologies and the lingering effects of economic recessions pose risks to the long-term oil demand forecast [2][67]. - **Refining Margins**: High refined product margins are anticipated to persist, as uncertainty regarding long-term demand has led to reduced refining capital expenditures [2][67]. Additional Insights - **Regional Variations**: Non-OECD countries are expected to drive over 90% of petrochemical oil demand growth, particularly in China and the Middle East, while OECD consumption is declining due to rising costs and ESG concerns [2][37]. - **Power Generation**: Oil demand for power generation is projected to decline significantly, with an expected 80% drop by 2040, primarily due to a shift towards natural gas and renewable energy sources [2][43][45]. Conclusion - The report presents a solid outlook for global oil demand growth over the next decade, with significant contributions from petrochemicals and air transportation, while acknowledging the potential for downside risks from technological advancements and economic fluctuations [2][51].

As DRAM prices surge, raising ests/PT, and naming MU top pick | What's Changed | | | | --- | --- | --- | | Micron Technology Inc. (MU.O) | From | To | | Price Target | $220.00 | $325.00 | | Top Pick Added | - | MU.O | November 13, 2025 04:44 AM GMT Micron Technology Inc | North America We are entering uncharted territory, as we have a 2018 style shortage forming but from a much higher EPS starting point; we expect serial upwards revisions to continue, as soon as next week. With $25 in CY26 earnings, moving ...

Core Insights - Amazon.com, Inc. is a leading global technology and retail platform, excelling in e-commerce, cloud computing, and digital advertising, while also venturing into AI infrastructure and subscription services [2][3] Financial Performance - Amazon generated over $670 billion in annual revenue, with a cash balance exceeding $100 billion and improving free cash flow, indicating strong financial health and a competitive advantage across various industries [3] DCF Analysis - The DCF model indicates a total present value of forecasted free cash flows of $164.1 billion, with a terminal value of $957.1 billion, leading to an enterprise value of $786.6 billion [4] - After accounting for net debt of $29.7 billion, the equity value is calculated at $756.9 billion, resulting in an intrinsic value per share of approximately $71 [5] Market Valuation - The current market price of Amazon shares is around $249, suggesting a margin of safety of -72%, indicating that the stock is trading significantly above its intrinsic value [5] - Despite Amazon's strong market position and growth potential, the high market valuation reflects expectations of robust growth and profitability in the coming decade [5]

Core Viewpoint - Customers are planning significant increases in production at their chip factories, which is expected to drive demand for the company's equipment, services, and solutions as stated by CEO Gary Dickerson [1] Industry Summary - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a surge in production plans from customers, indicating a robust demand for manufacturing equipment and related services [1]

Core Insights - zSpace, Inc. reported financial results for Q3 2025, highlighting a focus on strategic priorities and revenue growth in software and services despite macroeconomic challenges [2][4]. Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 2025 was $8.8 million, a decrease from $14.2 million in Q3 2024, attributed to an unusually large customer order in the previous year that did not repeat [4][6]. - Software and services accounted for 57% of total revenue, up from 46% year-over-year [6]. - Gross margin improved to 51% from 45% in the same quarter last year, reflecting a 642 basis point increase due to better hardware cost profiles and more company-owned software content [5][6]. - The net loss for Q3 2025 was ($6.2) million, compared to a net loss of ($0.2) million in Q3 2024 [6][8]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was ($2.0) million, down from $0.4 million in the prior year [6]. Business Highlights - zSpace launched the Career Explorer application, developed by the acquired Second Avenue Learning team, which has generated strong customer interest [2]. - The company partnered with GEMS Education to deploy AR/VR learning solutions in Dubai, marking a significant expansion in its international presence [6]. - Danbury Public Schools in Connecticut fully deployed zSpace's Career Coach AI and STEM learning technology across its middle and high schools, serving over 12,000 students [6]. - zSpace introduced several new training solutions, including the Heavy Machine & Vehicle Inspection Virtual Trainer and the Medical Assisting Skills Virtual Trainer, enhancing its product offerings [6]. Key Metrics - Annualized Contract Value (ACV) for renewable software was $10.2 million as of September 30, 2025, a 10% decrease from the previous year [7]. - Net Dollar Revenue Retention (NDRR) was 77% for customers with over $50,000 of ACV, down from the previous year [7]. - Bookings in Q3 2025 were $7.4 million, a decline of 37% year-over-year, with a backlog of unfulfilled orders amounting to $6.4 million [7]. Balance Sheet - As of September 30, 2025, zSpace had approximately $4.3 million in cash and cash equivalents, an increase from $3.2 million a year earlier [9][20]. - Total liabilities stood at $33.1 million, down from $42.5 million in the previous year [21].

Core Insights - The CEO of Affirm, Max Levchin, believes that AI and humanoid robots will serve as tools to enhance human productivity rather than replace jobs [1][3] - The Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) market is experiencing significant growth, with 15% of Americans using BNPL services in 2024, and Affirm's stock has increased by 25% in 2025 [2] - Affirm has reported strong fiscal first-quarter results for 2026, with analysts maintaining a positive outlook on the company's growth and stock performance [4][5] Company Performance - Affirm's recent fiscal first-quarter 2026 results were solid, leading to bullish analyst ratings, including a Buy rating from Goldman Sachs with a price target of $94 [4] - JPMorgan has rated Affirm as Overweight, projecting premium volume growth exceeding 20% and expanding operating margins due to increased penetration at platform partners like Shopify, Amazon, and Apple Pay [5] Industry Trends - The sentiment around AI in the workforce is mixed, with a survey indicating that 79% of respondents feel AI has impacted their roles, reflecting concerns about job displacement [3] - Levchin emphasizes that AI will enhance human intelligence and decision-making capabilities, suggesting a future where humans and AI collaborate effectively [6]

Core Insights - The concept of a K-shaped economy highlights the growing divide between higher- and lower-income Americans, with some sectors recovering post-pandemic while others lag behind [1][3][4] Economic Disparities - Wage growth for the lowest-quartile income Americans has fallen to its lowest level in about a decade, while the highest income Americans are experiencing the fastest wage growth [4] - Subprime loans are increasing, indicating financial strain for many, while super prime loans are also on the rise among high-credit-score Americans [4] - The stock market reflects a K-shaped recovery, with earnings expectations rising for top companies while deflating for the majority of the S&P 493 [4] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer sentiment is split along income lines, with low-income Americans feeling significantly less confident about the economy compared to higher earners [5] - This sentiment shift is different from 2022, where market declines affected confidence across all income levels [5] Behavioral Implications - The differing sentiments may lead to varied consumer behaviors, increasing economic vulnerability [6] - Lower-income individuals may exhibit behaviors such as disengagement and reduced spending, while higher-income individuals may become overconfident and blind to risks [8] Political and Social Consequences - The K-shaped economy may exacerbate tensions between income classes, potentially leading to social unrest if lower-income Americans feel increasingly marginalized [9][10] - Historical parallels are drawn to social unrest linked to economic disparities, suggesting a risk of similar outcomes in the current context [9]