Core Points - President Trump claimed victory over inflation, stating that the U.S. has "virtually no inflation" and that consumer prices are decreasing rapidly [2] - Federal data contradicts Trump's claims, indicating that inflation remains elevated, with the consumer price index at a 2.7% annual rate as of December 2025 [3] - Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is at 2.6%, indicating persistent inflation concerns for policymakers [4] Inflation and Tariffs - Trump's tariff policy is contributing to upward pressure on inflation, complicating claims of victory over inflation [5] - The average effective tariff rate in the U.S. is 17.5%, the highest since 1932, significantly up from around 2% at the beginning of 2025 [6] - Consumers are expected to pay an additional $1,300 to $1,700 in 2026 due to current tariff rates compared to pre-2025 levels [7] Consumer Price Trends - Mortgage rates have decreased to an average of 6.21%, down from over 7% in January 2025, translating to approximately $1,800 in annual savings on a $300,000 loan [10][11] - National rent index fell by 0.8% in December, with an overall decline of 1.3% year-over-year, now averaging $1,356 [12] - Car payments have increased, with the average monthly payment for new vehicles reaching $772, up from $754 at the end of 2024 [14][15] Energy and Grocery Prices - Gasoline prices have decreased by nearly 10% to an average of $2.81 per gallon since Trump took office [16] - Electricity prices have surged nearly 7% over the past year, driven by increased demand from data centers [18] - Grocery prices have risen by 2.4% year-over-year, with specific items like beef and coffee seeing significant price increases of 16% and 20%, respectively [19][20] Airfare Trends - Airline fares have declined by more than 3% year-over-year, supported by lower jet fuel prices [21][22] - The price data does not account for ancillary fees, which can significantly impact travelers' budgets [23]

Core Insights - The survey indicates that only 30% of Americans would use their savings to cover a $1,000 emergency expense, while 17% would rely on their regular income or cash flow [1][5][6] - A significant portion of the population, 43%, expressed being "very worried" about covering living expenses if they lost their primary source of income, with 54% stating that inflation is causing them to save less for emergencies [2][10] - The survey highlights that 36% of Americans had more credit card debt than emergency savings in 2023, a figure that has decreased to 33% in 2025 but remains higher than pre-2023 levels [33][34] Emergency Savings and Spending Behavior - The survey reveals that 47% of Americans feel they have sufficient liquidity to cover a $1,000 emergency expense, indicating a potential challenge for many in the face of job losses or medical issues [6][17] - Among those who reported changes in their emergency savings, 21% of men and 28% of Gen-Z adults indicated an increase, while 32% reported having less emergency savings than at the start of the year [12][14] - The majority of respondents (60%) are uncomfortable with their level of emergency savings, with only 40% feeling comfortable [20][22] Generational Differences - Baby boomers are the most likely generation to pay for unexpected expenses from savings, followed closely by Gen Zers, while Gen Xers and millennials are slightly behind [7][9] - Younger generations, particularly Gen Zers and millennials, are more likely to have used their emergency savings for non-essential items compared to older generations [30][31] - The survey indicates that 61% of millennials feel they need at least six months of expenses saved to feel comfortable, compared to 70% of baby boomers [23][22] Regional Insights - The survey shows that 27% of both Southerners and Midwesterners lack any emergency savings, compared to 22% in the Northeast and 18% in the West [19] - Approximately half of Northeasterners (54%) and Westerners (49%) have enough saved to cover three months of expenses, while only 42% of Southerners and 44% of Midwesterners can say the same [19] Financial Behavior Trends - The survey indicates that 37% of U.S. adults used their emergency savings in the past year, with millennials being the most likely to have tapped into these funds [24][25] - A significant portion of those who withdrew from their emergency savings did so for essentials, with 51% using the funds for unplanned expenses like medical bills or car repairs [27][29] - The data suggests that many Americans are prioritizing both paying down debt and increasing emergency savings, with 35% focusing on both goals simultaneously [37]

European stocks pared early losses and settled on a mixed note on Wednesday as investors largely stayed cautious for much of the trading session till about mid afternoon, and then weighed U.S. President Donald Trump's speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos later on in the day.The U.S. President ruled out the use of military force to take control of Greenland during his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland."We probably won't get anything unless I decide to use excessive strength and ...

Core Insights - A significant portion of Americans are seeking more affordable insurance options, with nearly 30% either dropping or downgrading their insurance policies in 2025, particularly in auto insurance [1][2]. Insurance Industry Trends - The average cost of auto insurance has increased by 88% over the last decade, reflecting a broader trend of rising vehicle ownership costs [2]. - Home insurance costs have also risen, with a 16% increase over the past decade, while the median sales price of U.S. houses has surged by 42% [8][9]. Consumer Behavior - Many consumers are looking to reduce their monthly expenses, particularly in areas where they have some control, such as insurance [3]. - The trend of shopping around for better insurance rates is becoming more common, with platforms available to compare rates from various providers [6][7]. Financial Management - Financial experts recommend maintaining one to two months' worth of expenses in checking accounts, but caution against keeping excessive funds that do not earn interest [10][12]. - The national average interest rate on checking accounts is only 0.07%, which is significantly lower than inflation rates, prompting a shift towards high-yield savings accounts [13][14]. Investment Opportunities - For those looking to grow their savings, diversifying into stocks and utilizing investment apps can provide higher returns [18][19]. - Apps like Acorns facilitate small, consistent investments, allowing users to build their investment portfolios gradually [19].

Group 1 - The iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF (BATS: PICK) has seen renewed interest due to rising inflation and increasing metal prices, reversing a previous trend of decreased attractiveness for miners and commodity producers [1] - The CEF/ETF Income Laboratory manages portfolios targeting safe and reliable yields of approximately 8%, focusing on high-yield opportunities in closed-end funds and exchange-traded funds [1] - The majority of holdings in the CEF/ETF Income Laboratory are monthly-payers, which facilitates faster compounding and provides steady income streams for investors [1]

Core Insights - Inflation is expected to remain high throughout 2026, driven by healthy economic activity and tariff pass-through to consumers [2][3] - Lower-income households will be disproportionately affected by elevated prices of everyday goods and utility costs [3] - Government intervention aimed at affordability is anticipated, especially ahead of midterm elections [4][5] Inflation Outlook - The December 2025 Consumer Price Index indicated a month-over-month price increase of 0.3% and a year-over-year increase of 2.7% [1] - Mukherjee predicts that inflation will not significantly ease in 2026, maintaining pressure on consumers [2] Impact on Consumers - Lower-income consumers are expected to become more cautious with discretionary spending due to a challenging hiring environment [3] - Early-year tax refunds may provide temporary financial relief for these households [3] Government and Policy Interventions - Anticipated tariff rate stabilization and potential reductions could lead to lower prices for imported goods [5] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 to 50 basis points, which may lower mortgage rates and improve housing affordability [5][6] Housing Market - A more affordable housing market is projected as mortgage rates decrease, potentially boosting refinancing and sales [6]

Core Insights - Investors today are facing challenges such as structurally high inflation, which has not been seen for approximately four decades [1] - Current market conditions reflect historically high valuations, with housing prices exceeding levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis and bond yields at their highest in some time [2] - A strategic focus on capital preservation is recommended for investors nearing retirement and younger investors due to rising inflation and geopolitical risks [3] Inflation Trends - Following the Great Financial Crisis, inflation remained low, typically at or below 2%, and even turned negative during certain periods [5][6] - The current inflation environment is significantly different, with inflation no longer being a minor concern for investors [4] Market Conditions - Stock valuations are currently comparable to levels seen during the dot-com bubble, while housing prices have surpassed peaks from the 2008 financial crisis [8] - The traditional 60/40 portfolio strategy may be less effective due to higher inflation impacting investor returns, leading to a potential shift towards higher-growth assets [7][8] Investment Strategies - Investors who remained in the market during previous downturns often saw better returns compared to those who exited, highlighting the importance of staying invested [6] - The correlation between bonds and equities has changed, with both asset classes moving in tandem recently, which is atypical [8]

Core Viewpoint - Morrisons reported a £381 million loss for the last year, primarily due to high borrowing costs and reduced consumer spending [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company's debt interest bill reached £281 million in 2025, hindering profitability efforts [2]. - Net debt decreased to £3.1 billion from £3.5 billion over the summer, marking a £33 million improvement year-on-year [3]. - Adjusted earnings, excluding interest costs and tax, amounted to £835 million [3]. - Yearly revenues increased by 3.2% to £15.8 billion, although like-for-like sales fell by 2.4% in the last three months of the financial year [7]. Market Position and Competition - Morrisons is facing challenges from competitors, with Lidl gaining market share, holding 8.1% compared to Morrisons' 8.3% as of November [11]. - The company is at risk of losing its position as the fifth largest supermarket in Britain [11]. Consumer Trends - The customer base is shifting, with more pensioners and less affluent shoppers, making them more sensitive to price changes [8]. - The overall grocery market has been declining towards the end of the financial year, influenced by inflation and budget uncertainties [7]. Management Commentary - The CEO described the period as "challenging" and urged the government to avoid imposing additional costs on retailers to help maintain lower prices [6][9][10]. - The company is focusing on addressing pricing, promotions, loyalty, and availability to improve its market position [12].

Market Overview - Futures have reversed modest overnight gains, with S&P futures down 0.1% and Nasdaq futures down 0.3% as small caps outperform for a record 12th day in a row [1] - The market mood remains shaky, with a significant drop in liquidity as top of book collapsed 60% overnight [4] - Gold continues to hit new highs, approaching $4,900 per ounce, while bond yields are 1-2 basis points lower [1][8] Corporate News - Biohaven (BHVN) rises 3% after an upgrade to outperform by RBC due to supportive data [5] - Halliburton (HAL) climbs 2% after reporting fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share that beat analyst estimates [5] - Kraft Heinz (KHC) declines 5% as Berkshire Hathaway may sell some or all of its stake in the company [5] - Nathan's Famous (NATH) rises 8% after Smithfield Foods agreed to buy the company for $102 per share [5] - Netflix (NFLX) falls 7% after forecasting first-quarter earnings below analyst estimates and pausing share buybacks [5] Economic Indicators - The US economic calendar includes October construction spending and December pending home sales, with expectations of a 0.1% increase and a 0.25% decrease respectively [18][38] - Inflation in the UK rose to 3.4% in December, slightly above expectations, driven by higher tobacco prices and airfares [27] Geopolitical Developments - President Trump's speech at the World Economic Forum is anticipated to address various topics, including trade and tariffs, amid ongoing tensions regarding Greenland [6][30] - The Supreme Court is set to hear arguments regarding Trump's ability to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, coinciding with a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell [11][25] Sector Performance - European stocks drifted lower, with the Stoxx 600 down 0.6%, weighed down by financials and tech, while materials and luxury names outperformed [13][26] - The Russell 2000 is outperforming the Magnificent Seven by more than 10% year-to-date, indicating a rotation in market leadership [9]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its key interest rate through the current quarter and possibly until Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May, a shift from previous expectations of rate cuts by March [1][4]. Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is projected to continue growing strongly, with a growth rate of 4.3% in the third quarter and an expected expansion of 2.3% this year, up from 2.2% last year [8]. - Inflation remains above the Fed's target of 2%, which argues against near-term rate cuts, although economists anticipate at least two reductions later in the year [2]. Federal Reserve Policy - A majority of economists (58%) expect the Fed to keep rates at 3.50%-3.75% during the January meeting, contrasting with last month's expectations for at least one reduction [4]. - There is a divided outlook among Fed policymakers, with a slight majority (55 out of 100) expecting rate cuts to resume after Powell's term ends in May [6]. Political Influence - President Trump has criticized Powell for not lowering rates aggressively and has initiated criminal charges against him related to Fed headquarters renovations, which may impact the Fed's independence [3][7]. - The selection of the next Fed chair is anticipated to face significant pushback due to ongoing investigations, potentially affecting future interest rate decisions [7].