Core Viewpoint - India's real GDP growth for Q2 (July to September) is projected to be 7.5% or more, driven by consumption boosts following the GST rate cut, surpassing the Reserve Bank of India's projection of 7% [1][4]. Economic Indicators - Growth is supported by increased investment activities, recovery in rural consumption, and buoyancy in services and manufacturing, aided by structural reforms like GST rationalization [2]. - The percentage of leading indicators in consumption and demand across agriculture, industry, and service sectors has increased to 83% in Q2 from 70% in Q1 [3]. GST Collections - Gross domestic GST collections for November 2025 are estimated to be around ₹1.49 lakh crore, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.8% [4]. - Including ₹51,000 crore of IGST and cess on imports, November GST collections could exceed ₹2 lakh crore, driven by peak festive season demand and increased compliance [5]. Consumer Spending Trends - During the festive season (September-October 2025), consumption received a significant boost, with credit and debit card spending patterns indicating substantial growth in categories like Auto, Grocery stores, Electronics, and Travel [6]. - In e-commerce, 38% of spending was on Utility & Services, followed by 17% on Supermarkets and Grocery, with mid-tier cities showing the most growth [7]. Sectoral Analysis - All sectors, except textiles, exhibit high elasticity in response to GST rationalization, indicating a strong consumption response [8]. - The reduction of the effective GST rate is expected to lead to an average consumer saving of 7% per month on consumption, with potential for further increases as more data becomes available [9]. Vehicle Sales - Vehicle sales showed double-digit growth, with car sales volume increasing by 19%, particularly strong in rural regions, and a notable premiumization trend in urban and metro centers [10].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated revenues increased by 7% for the quarter and 4% year to date, with all reportable segments showing year-over-year growth [12] - Operating income for the quarter was $1 billion, down from $1.4 billion in the comparable period last year, primarily due to net investment gains which were $433 million compared to $918 million last year [12] - Adjusted operating income totaled $621 million for the quarter, up $121 million or 24% year-over-year, with insurance contributing $153 million to this increase [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Markel Insurance segment achieved a combined ratio of 93% in Q3, improved from 97% in the same period last year, aided by lower catastrophe activity [3][17] - Underwriting gross written premiums for Markel Insurance were up 11% year-over-year for the quarter, driven by growth in personal lines and international lines [15] - The industrial segment reported revenues of $1 billion, up 5% year-over-year, while the consumer and other segment saw revenues of $291 million, up 10% [19][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The international division of Markel Insurance experienced strong growth with a 25% increase in underwriting premiums for the quarter [16] - The financial segment's revenues were $162 million, up 16% year-over-year, although adjusted operating income decreased by 23% due to prior year favorable loss development [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on improving its core insurance business by exiting underperforming segments, making leadership changes, and enhancing accountability [2][4] - A new organizational structure has been implemented to streamline operations and improve profitability, with a focus on distinct P&L responsibilities for each business unit [24][25] - The company aims to reinvest in existing businesses and expand into new markets, particularly in industrial and consumer sectors, while maintaining a conservative approach to capital allocation [5][6] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ongoing improvements in insurance profitability and the effectiveness of recent strategic actions [3][4] - The company is optimistic about its growth potential in various segments, particularly in international operations and niche markets [32] - Management acknowledged the challenges in the current economic environment but emphasized the importance of maintaining a strong focus on underwriting performance and expense management [49][50] Other Important Information - The company has returned approximately $1.9 billion to shareholders through share repurchases since the end of 2020, reducing the share count from 13.8 million to 12.6 million [6] - The company has committed to enhancing financial disclosures to provide better insights into its operations and capital allocation [7][9] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: Regarding the expense ratio at 36% and technology spending - Management acknowledged the current expense ratio and indicated that while they are focused on reducing it, investments in technology and profitable growth areas may temporarily increase the ratio [39][41] Question: Insights on gross written premium growth and successes in programs and solutions - Management highlighted that the growth in gross written premiums was strong at 11%, with specific successes noted in casualty and professional lines, while being selective in risk appetite [46][48] Question: Discussion on capital management and buyback strategies - Management confirmed that share repurchases remain the primary capital allocation strategy, with a focus on being price-sensitive and rational in their approach [62][68] Question: Comparison of international versus U.S. combined ratio opportunities - Management indicated that while there are attractive opportunities in both markets, the international segment has benefited from a focus on small and micro businesses, leading to lower loss ratios [70][74]

Core Insights - The article highlights the top-performing leveraged and inverse ETFs from the previous week, showcasing significant returns driven by various market dynamics. Group 1: Top Performing ETFs - Direxion MSCI Daily South Korea Bull 3X Shares (KORU) achieved a return of 29.99% [2] - ProShares UltraShort Bitcoin ETF (SBIT) and Defiance Daily Target 2x Long OKLO ETF (OKLL) both recorded returns of 19.54% [2] - Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares (SOXL) returned 17.77% [2] - GraniteShares 2x Long AMD Daily ETF (AMDL) saw a return of 16.67% [2] - MicroSectors Gold 3X Leveraged ETNs (SHNY) returned 15.67% [2] Group 2: Notable Company Performances - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) stock surged due to a partnership with OpenAI, contributing to a 60% weekly gain for the GraniteShares 2x Long AMD Daily ETF (AMDL) [3] - Oklo Inc. (OKLO) experienced over 31% weekly gains attributed to increased demand for AI-related power and a new U.S. Air Force contract [4] - The U.S. auto industry saw a significant boost, with the MAX Auto Industry -3x Inverse Leveraged ETN (CARD) returning approximately 28.5% due to a spike in electric vehicle sales [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Increased market volatility was noted, driven by concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown, rising trade tensions with China, and uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's actions, impacting the 2x Long VIX Futures ETF (UVIX) [6] - The FTSE China 50 Index faced declines due to renewed U.S. tariff threats, with Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3X Shares (YANG) returning over 24% [7] - Escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and heavy liquidations led to a crypto market crash, affecting the ProShares UltraShort Ether ETF (ETHD) with 24% weekly gains [8]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market opened with slight declines across major indices, including S&P 500 (-0.04%), Russell 2000 (-0.11%), Dow (-0.14%), and Nasdaq (-0.18%) [2] Earnings Reports - Intuitive Surgical reported strong earnings, leading to a significant increase in its stock price by 17.76%. Other notable gainers include Vertiv (+7.1%) and Hilton (+3.1%) [3] - Pegasystems saw a rise of 12.5%, while Capital One and Haliburton increased by 4.12% and 2.77%, respectively, benefiting from positive earnings sentiment from the previous day [3] - Conversely, Texas Instruments experienced a sharp decline of 7.9% following weaker after-hours results, alongside other laggards like Manhattan Associates (-7.9%), Netflix (-7.4%), and Newmont (-4.77%) [4] - Mattel's stock fell by 5.5% after missing earnings expectations and reporting a decline in North American sales [4] Upcoming Earnings - Major earnings reports expected later today include Tesla, SAP, and IBM, which will be released after the market closes [8] Economic Indicators - The 10-Year Treasury yield decreased by 1.9 points to 3.944%, while the Continuous Gold Contract fell by 1.76% to $4,036.80 [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Economics** sector, particularly analyzing inflation trends and upstream prices influenced by anti-involution efforts [1][4][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Inflation Trends**: - Headline CPI remained soft at -0.3% YoY, while core inflation rose to 1.0% YoY for the first time in 19 months, indicating a gradual recovery in core goods inflation, particularly in gold jewelry and durable goods [1][4][6]. - Core goods inflation is estimated at 1.5% YoY, the highest since January 2020, driven by significant increases in gold jewelry prices (6.5% MoM and 42.1% YoY) [4][6][9]. - **PPI Dynamics**: - PPI deflation narrowed to -2.3% YoY, with a sequential change of 0.0% MoM, suggesting some stabilization in upstream prices due to anti-involution initiatives [4][6][16]. - The contraction in ferrous metal smelting narrowed significantly to -0.6% YoY from -10.0% YoY two months prior, indicating a recovery in this sector [4][6][16]. - **Sector Performance**: - Downstream sectors showed limited improvement, with PPI for autos contracting by -3.0% YoY and electronics prices declining by -2.5% YoY, highlighting ongoing demand challenges [4][6][16]. - Energy prices negatively impacted headline CPI, with transportation fuel prices dropping -1.7% MoM [4][6]. - **Future Outlook**: - The GDP deflator is expected to find a bottom in Q3 2025, supported by base effects and anti-involution initiatives, but the medium-term reflation outlook remains uncertain and heavily reliant on demand-side factors [6][7]. - Policymakers are expected to focus on supply and demand rebalancing in the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan, with potential regulatory actions in the solar sector [6][7]. Additional Important Insights - **Consumer Behavior**: - The report notes that one-off factors, such as gold prices and trade-in subsidies, may not provide sustainable inflationary impulses going forward, emphasizing the need for a more balanced demand-supply dynamic [7][16]. - **Sector-Specific Developments**: - The report highlights price increases in solar energy and a narrowing contraction in lithium battery prices, indicating potential growth areas within the energy sector [4][6][16]. - **Policy Implications**: - The anti-involution initiative is seen as a critical factor in stabilizing prices, with explicit announcements from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) expected to support this effort [6][7]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape in China, particularly regarding inflation and sector performance.

Core Insights - The article highlights the top-performing leveraged and inverse ETFs from the previous week, showcasing significant returns driven by various market factors. Group 1: Top Performing ETFs - The GraniteShares 2x Long AMD Daily ETF (AMDL) achieved a remarkable 60.41% return, attributed to AMD's partnership with OpenAI and strong performance in the chip industry under new leadership [2][3]. - The Defiance Daily Target 2x Long OKLO ETF (OKLL) recorded a 31.78% return, driven by increased demand for AI-related power and a new contract with the U.S. Air Force [2][4]. - The MAX Auto Industry -3x Inverse Leveraged ETN (CARD) saw a 28.53% return, linked to a surge in electric vehicle sales following the expiration of a federal tax credit [2][5]. - The 2x Long VIX Futures ETF (UVIX) gained 25.15%, reflecting heightened market volatility due to concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown and trade tensions with China [2][6]. - The Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3X Shares (YANG) returned 24.19%, as Chinese markets reacted negatively to renewed U.S. tariff threats [2][7]. - The ProShares UltraShort Ether ETF (ETHD) achieved a 24.03% return amid escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and a crypto market crash [2][8]. - The ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) gained 18.95%, benefiting from increased market volatility [2][9]. - The ProShares UltraShort FTSE China 50 (FXP) recorded a 15.83% return, reflecting inverse exposure to China's large-cap stocks [2][9]. - The Defiance Daily Target 2X Long RIOT ETF (RIOX) saw a 14.66% return, driven by positive operational updates from Riot Platforms, Inc. [2][9]. - The Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bear 2X Shares (DRIP) achieved a 14.61% return, influenced by a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas and renewed trade tensions affecting oil prices [2][10].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic markets have remained stable despite challenges such as US tariffs and significant foreign institutional investor selling, supported by favorable monsoon conditions and expected recovery in domestic demand [1][2]. Market Analysis - The Nifty is valued at a 15-year average P/E multiple of 19.2x, with a 12-month target of 28,781, reflecting an increase from the previous target of 27,609. In a bull case scenario, the target rises to 30,220, while in a bear case, it drops to 25,903 [3]. Sector Performance - Domestic-oriented sectors are expected to outperform, with banks, NBFCs, auto, retail, consumer staples, defense, metals, and select durables identified as key outperformers [4]. Earnings Forecast - Strong growth is anticipated for Q2FY26, with a projected 9.7% rise in sales, 11.2% growth in EBIDTA, and a 9.9% increase in Profit Before Tax (PBT) [5]. Growth Drivers - The growth trajectory is expected to be driven by commodities such as metals, cement, and oil and gas, along with sectors like telecom, AMC, and EMS. Conversely, banks, Housing Finance Companies, media, and travel sectors are projected to see a decline in PBT [6]. Stock Recommendations - Preferred large-cap stocks include Adani Ports, Apollo Hospitals, Britannia, HAL, ICICI Bank, and ITC. Mid/small-cap picks include Amber Enterprises, DOMS Industries, Eris Lifesciences, and Voltamp Transformers. Recent additions to conviction picks are Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Steel, State Bank of India, Amber Enterprises India, and Latent View Analytics, while Bharti Airtel, Aster DM Healthcare, Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals, and Ingersoll Rand (India) have been removed [7].

Core Insights - The Chicago Fed predicts a steady unemployment rate of 4.34% for September 2025, relying on real-time data due to the U.S. government shutdown affecting Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data releases [1][2] - Private data sources indicate a cooling labor market, with weak holiday hiring plans potentially impacting payrolls through year-end [3][4] Labor Market Analysis - The Chicago Fed's analysis shows the unemployment rate unchanged from August, with layoffs at 2.10% and hiring rates for unemployed workers at 45.22%, both slightly down from the previous month [2] - Bill Adams, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank, notes that alternative data sources suggest a "low hire, low fire, low gear" job market, with Revelio Labs estimating 60,100 jobs added in September, contrasting with ADP's reported decline of 32,000 [4][5] - Hiring intentions have plummeted 70% year-over-year according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, while the Cleveland Fed's WARN Act index dropped 22% to 14,000, indicating minimal planned layoffs [4][5] Economic Pressures - Broader economic pressures include low consumer confidence, tariff impacts on margins, and a potential drop in auto sales following the expiration of EV subsidies [5] - AI-driven growth is noted to be capital-intensive, creating fewer jobs and potentially widening the gap between economic output and employment [5] - The government shutdown could shave 0.1-0.2% off GDP growth weekly, with Comerica forecasting a 0.25% Fed rate cut in late October [5] Market Reactions - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ) saw slight increases, with SPY up 0.12% and QQQ up 0.41% [7]

Core Viewpoint - Upstart's shares experienced a significant decline in September due to concerns over rising delinquency rates on its loans, influenced by third-party market research and signs of a weakening economy [1][5]. Group 1: Stock Performance - By the end of September, Upstart's stock had fallen 31%, with most of the decline occurring towards the end of the month [3]. - The stock's worst day was on September 10, when it dropped 9.4% following the bankruptcy of Tricolor Holdings, a used-car dealer that lends to borrowers with no credit [6]. - After a brief recovery due to the Federal Reserve's rate cut on September 17, the stock began to slide again as credit concerns resurfaced, culminating in an 8% drop on September 29 after a note from BTIG regarding increased delinquencies [7]. Group 2: Market Context - The sell-off in Upstart's stock was primarily driven by a deteriorating credit picture for low-income Americans, which is a core market for the company [5]. - Other fintech stocks, particularly in the Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) sector, also experienced declines due to rising credit risk concerns [2]. - The bankruptcy of Tricolor Holdings, although not directly connected to Upstart, negatively impacted credit markets and contributed to the volatility of Upstart's stock [6]. Group 3: Company Communication - There has been no direct communication from Upstart regarding the impact of changing credit markets on its business, despite management's participation in a Goldman Sachs conference on September 9 [8].

Investment Rating - The industry view is rated as Attractive [7] Core Insights - The MS Capex Tracker indicates that US next twelve months (NTM) capital expenditure intentions have accelerated to +20% through Q3, up from +10% at the start of the year, primarily driven by Data Center investments [3][4] - The report highlights a significant positive rate of change in capital expenditure, particularly from US Hyperscalers, which aligns with the "Data Center vs Everything Else" theme [3] - There is potential for manufacturing capital expenditure to increase further into 2026 due to improved tariff policies, supporting the $10 trillion reshoring thesis [3][4] - The report identifies key companies well-positioned for growth, including Trane Technologies (TT), Eaton Corporation (ETN), Johnson Controls International (JCI), Vertiv Holdings (VRT), Rockwell Automation (ROK), and Acuity Inc. (AYI) [3] Summary by Relevant Categories Capital Expenditure Trends - NTM capital expenditure leaders include Hyperscalers (+78%), Tech Hardware (+20%), Utilities (+18%), and Aerospace (+12%) [9] - Laggards in capital expenditure include IT (-14%), Chemicals (-9%), Automotive (-7%), Food & Beverage (-6%), Semiconductors (-4%), and Energy (-3%) [9] Rate of Change in Capital Expenditure - The rate of change for NTM capital expenditure shows leaders such as Hyperscalers (+38%) and Tech Hardware (+20%), while laggards include Chemicals (-16%) and IT (-16%) [12]