Core Viewpoint - The bond market exhibits a lack of confidence in Jerome Powell's optimistic outlook for the economy and interest rates [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - The bond market is signaling skepticism regarding the Federal Reserve's ability to maintain its current interest rate policy [1] - Investors are pricing in a higher likelihood of rate cuts in the near future, contrary to Powell's stance [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent economic data suggests a potential slowdown, which may influence the Fed's future decisions on interest rates [1] - The bond market's reaction indicates that it anticipates weaker economic growth than what Powell has projected [1]

Neils ChristensenNeils Christensen has a diploma in journalism from Lethbridge College and has more than a decade of reporting experience working for news organizations throughout Canada. His experiences include covering territorial and federal politics in Nunavut, Canada. He has worked exclusively within the financial sector since 2007, when he started with the Canadian Economic Press. Neils can be contacted at: 1 866 925 4826 ext. 1526 nchristensen at kitco.com @Neils_cShareDisclaimer: The views expressed ...

Neils ChristensenNeils Christensen has a diploma in journalism from Lethbridge College and has more than a decade of reporting experience working for news organizations throughout Canada. His experiences include covering territorial and federal politics in Nunavut, Canada. He has worked exclusively within the financial sector since 2007, when he started with the Canadian Economic Press. Neils can be contacted at: 1 866 925 4826 ext. 1526 nchristensen at kitco.com @Neils_cShareDisclaimer: The views expressed ...

The stock market set new highs last week as measures of the economy, like job creation, continued to cool.Some charts from September's research notes, news articles, and blogs caught my eye. Instead of publishing a series of newsletters, I figured I'd do a lightning round here.The stock market is not the economyThe U.S. stock market and the U.S. economy are closely intertwined. Yet the makeup of earnings per share (EPS), which drives stock prices, differs in several key ways from the makeup of GDP.From Well ...

Everyone is expecting BTC USD to pump after the rate cuts. You know what that means. This is the start of figuring out if can add another $3 Tn in market cap to bring the price of Bitcoin to 200k USD in 2025. Currently, BTC is just above $115,000, heading into one of the most important macro weeks of the year. With the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting set for September 17, let’s talk about the odds that BTC USD breaks new ATHs or crashes below $100,000 DISCOVER: Next 1000X Crypto: 10+ Crypto Tokens That ...

Core Viewpoint - BlackRock has adjusted its tactical outlook on long-term Treasurys, indicating a shift in investment strategy due to a "murky" macroeconomic environment [1] Group 1 - The company has changed its stance on long-term Treasurys, reflecting a more cautious approach in light of current economic conditions [1] - The macroeconomic backdrop is described as "murky," suggesting uncertainty in economic indicators and market trends [1]

Our next guest has been calling for 100 basis points of cuts this year for months, long before we saw a downturn in the official jobs data. So what is he looking for this week and how should investors position. With us is Barry Knap, Ironside's macroeconomics director of research.Barry, it's great to see you. >> Good to see you again, Mike. >> So it's it's an interesting take that you have here that in other words, 100 basis points is warranted.I guess you would also say perhaps overdue. Uh, at the same tim ...

Core Viewpoint - Stocks are expected to continue their record-setting rally into the next year, driven by anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts starting this week [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is projected to initiate a series of rate cuts, which is a key factor in supporting the stock market rally [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the US equity market and the implications of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts on various sectors and stocks [1][2][9]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Fed Rate Cuts Expectations**: Anticipation of a Fed rate cut next week, with market consensus predicting four 25 basis point cuts through March [2][9]. 2. **Economic Conditions**: The performance of equities is closely tied to the underlying economic conditions, with a focus on whether the economy experiences a soft landing or recession [2][3][4][36]. 3. **Rate Sensitivity Analysis**: The analysis emphasizes the importance of understanding which sectors and stocks are most sensitive to changes in the 2-year Treasury yields, particularly in the context of a steepening yield curve [10][12][36]. 4. **Investment Strategy**: The recommendation is to overweight Growth stocks, particularly in a soft landing scenario, while also considering SMID (small and mid-cap) stocks for cyclical exposure [6][14][45]. 5. **Sector Performance**: Real Estate and Utilities are highlighted as sectors likely to benefit from falling rates due to their debt profiles, while sectors like Energy and Information Technology may underperform [17][20][23]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Market Dynamics**: The analysis suggests that traditional defensive sectors may outperform in a negative economic data scenario, while cyclical sectors may do better in a positive economic backdrop [26][36][45]. 2. **Stock-Specific Screens**: The report includes a sector-neutral screening methodology to identify stocks most and least sensitive to falling rates, providing a detailed list of top and bottom performers across various sectors [37][50]. 3. **Conditional Scenarios**: The report outlines different scenarios based on economic conditions, emphasizing that the economic backdrop will significantly influence market responses to Fed rate cuts [36][45]. 4. **Performance Metrics**: The analysis includes performance metrics for stocks based on their sensitivity to rate changes, with specific attention to expected earnings growth, valuation, and beta [47][48]. Conclusion - The overall takeaway is that the economic conditions surrounding the anticipated Fed rate cuts will be critical for positioning in the equity market. Investors are encouraged to consider size, style, and sector tilts based on their economic outlook, with a focus on stock-picking within identified sectors [49][50].

Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Sept. 17, lowering the benchmark range to 4.00%-4.25% [1] - Further easing is anticipated, potentially bringing rates down to around 3% within the next 12 months, with the fed funds futures market indicating a drop to less than 3% by the end of 2026 [1] Treasury Yields and Market Dynamics - Bitcoin bulls are optimistic that the anticipated easing will lead to lower Treasury yields, encouraging risk-taking in the economy and financial markets [2] - However, the expected Fed rate cuts may primarily affect the two-year Treasury yield, while long-term yields could remain elevated due to fiscal concerns and persistent inflation [2] Debt Supply and Fiscal Policy - The U.S. government is expected to increase the issuance of Treasury bills and longer-duration Treasury notes to finance tax cuts and increased defense spending, potentially adding over $2.4 trillion to primary deficits over ten years and increasing debt by nearly $3 trillion [3] - The increased supply of debt is likely to pressure bond prices down and lift yields, particularly for longer-term securities [4] Investor Sentiment and Yield Curve - Investors are demanding higher yields for long-term Treasuries due to concerns about inflation and dollar depreciation linked to high debt levels, which may prevent long-term bond yields from falling significantly [6] - The ongoing steepening of the yield curve indicates rising concerns about fiscal policy, as reflected in the widening spread between different maturities of Treasury yields [5]