Strategists at JPMorgan say it’s unlikely that Treasuries will replicate this year’s strong performance in 2026 because markets have priced in too many Fed rate cuts https://t.co/xvKRNZBoKq ...

Attention $BTC bulls: All the chatter around Fed rate cuts hasn’t yet pushed yields or the $DXY meaningfully lower. by @godbole17https://t.co/MpzjWGJPHZ ...

November 30, 2025 08:00 AM GMT Cross-Asset Brief M Global Idea How Worried Should We Be About AI Valuations? Key Debates in Under 5 Minutes – November 2025 Don't have a lot of time? Here are some brief thoughts on a few key cross-asset debates we've had with investors in November on our out-of-consensus calls. 1) How worried should we be about AI valuations? We think valuations can stay supported 2) What is the impact of AI capex-related issuance on credit? We expect a less supportive technical environment, ...

Market Trends & Industry Dynamics - BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes suggests Tether is anticipating imminent Fed rate cuts, impacting its interest income [1] - Tether has increased its holdings of gold and Bitcoin to hedge against a "falling price of money" [1] Investment Opportunities & Potential Risks - A roughly 30% drop in Tether's gold–BTC portfolio could wipe out its equity, potentially risking USDT insolvency [1] - Major holders and exchanges are likely to demand real-time visibility into Tether's balance sheet [1]

Group 1 - The market sentiment is currently influenced by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with predictions shifting from near 0% to close to 100% likelihood for a cut [5][6] - There is a belief that the Fed's messaging during the rate cut will be crucial, determining whether it will be perceived as hawkish or dovish, which could impact market reactions [6][7] - The overall outlook remains bullish for the market, especially if long-term rates decrease, which would benefit sectors like housing and real estate, potentially leading to GDP growth [8][9] Group 2 - Concerns regarding artificial intelligence's impact on the market were deemed overblown, with technical market factors being more significant contributors to recent selloffs [3][4] - The second year of a presidential cycle is typically favorable for the economy, and upcoming midterm elections are expected to further stimulate fiscal activity [9] - The stability of inflation signals will be critical for maintaining economic momentum and supporting market growth [10]

Core Insights - The market has shown resilience despite a 15% decline in Nvidia's stock, indicating a broader market strength and rotation into real economy stocks [2][4][9] - Nvidia's prominence in the market is likened to a celebrity, influencing market narratives and investor sentiment [6][7] - The current market environment suggests a potential shift from a narrow focus on AI stocks to a more diversified investment approach, particularly in consumer discretionary and regional banks [12][13] Company Insights - Nvidia's stock price rose from $80 in April to $200, creating significant wealth for investors, but has since seen a 15% drop from its highs [4] - Nvidia is a major player in the S&P 500, comprising approximately 8% of the index, which amplifies its market impact [7] - The stock's recent performance reflects crowded positions and heightened emotions among investors, contributing to its volatility [3][7] Industry Insights - The broader market is beginning to show signs of recovery in sectors beyond technology, with consumer discretionary stocks gaining traction despite historically low consumer sentiment [11][12] - The performance of regional banks and homebuilders is noteworthy, indicating a potential rebound in interest rate-sensitive sectors [12][13] - Market sentiment is shifting, with Fed rate cuts becoming a more significant concern for investors compared to AI spending, as indicated by a recent Twitter poll [14][15]

Core Insights - The article discusses the financial sector and highlights the experience of Neils Christensen, who has over a decade of reporting experience in this field [3]. Group 1 - Neils Christensen has a diploma in journalism and has worked for various news organizations across Canada [3]. - His reporting experience includes covering territorial and federal politics in Nunavut, Canada [3]. - Since 2007, he has been exclusively focused on the financial sector, starting with the Canadian Economic Press [3].

Core Insights - Bitcoin's recent selloff is increasingly concentrated during U.S. trading hours, indicating a shift towards behaving like a high-beta tech asset rather than a traditional cryptocurrency [1][2] - The cumulative returns for Bitcoin during U.S. hours have declined nearly 30%, while Asian sessions remain largely flat and European sessions show modest losses [1][2] Market Behavior - Throughout November, Bitcoin stabilizes during Asian trading hours, experiences slight declines during European sessions, and absorbs most losses once U.S. equity markets open [2][5] - This pattern reflects stress in megacap tech stocks, which are facing valuation pressures due to concerns about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and heavy AI capital expenditures [2][3] Correlation with Tech Stocks - Bitcoin has a high correlation with U.S. tech stocks, both being risk assets influenced by U.S. monetary policy expectations and retail trader involvement [3] - Recent market volatility is driven by fears that the Federal Reserve may not cut rates in December, impacting both tech stocks and Bitcoin [3] Liquidity and Trading Dynamics - Funds treating Bitcoin as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset are influencing the current market movement, with ETF inflows stalling and net outflows observed in larger spot products during U.S. sessions [4] - A decline in CME futures open interest indicates deleveraging during U.S. trading hours, which are characterized by the deepest liquidity for both spot and derivatives [4] Regional Divergence - The current regional divergence in Bitcoin selling pressure is notable compared to previous market corrections, where selling was more evenly distributed across time zones [5] - Unless there is stabilization in tech stocks or a return of ETF flows, Bitcoin will likely continue to be influenced by U.S. trading hours, setting the tone for the broader market [5]

Market Overview - The market is experiencing volatility and losses, with investors seeking potential catalysts for stock movement [1][3] - Historically, the Thanksgiving week has been strong for stock investors, with the S&P 500 gaining a median of 0.76% since 1945 [2] Consumer Data - September retail sales data is expected to show a 0.4% increase in consumer spending, down from 0.6% in the previous month [5] - The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Survey for November is set to be released, providing insights into consumer sentiment [5] - The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Survey indicates a decline to its lowest level in three years, reflecting consumer frustration over high prices and weakening incomes [6] Inflation Data - The September Producer Price Index will be released, which could influence the Federal Reserve's perspective on inflation ahead of the December policy meeting [7]

Market Overview - The market is experiencing volatility with major indices showing mixed movements, including the Dow up about 0.21%, Nasdaq up about 1%, and S&P 500 up about 0.61% [1] - Bitcoin has seen a significant decline, down approximately 24% over the last two months, with a recent drop of about 6% in the past week [1][3] - The total capitalization of the crypto market has fallen by about 24% since its October peak, equating to over $1 trillion in value lost [1] Consumer Spending and Retail - The National Retail Federation anticipates that consumers will spend over $1 trillion this holiday season, marking a strong consumer sentiment [2] - Recent retail earnings reports have shown mixed results, with companies like Gap and TJ Maxx performing well, while Home Depot's results were less favorable [2] - High-income consumers are driving spending, while low-income consumers remain under pressure [2] AI and Technology Sector - Goldman Sachs suggests that the narrative around AI capital expenditures (capex) is crucial for market stability, with expectations of continued growth in technology demand [2][3] - Nvidia's recent performance is seen as a key indicator for the tech sector, with any weakness potentially impacting broader market sentiment [2][3] Cryptocurrency Insights - Institutional investors are currently sidelined, with Bitcoin ETF outflows reaching $3.5 billion in November, the largest since February [4] - The correlation between Bitcoin and the NASDAQ suggests that stabilization in crypto prices may be necessary for broader market recovery [5][6] - Analysts express caution regarding a V-shaped recovery for Bitcoin, citing the need for more dovish Fed commentary and institutional participation [4][5] Company-Specific Developments - Moderna has faced significant stock price declines, down 43% this year, and is currently the most shorted stock in the S&P 500, with 20% of shares shorted [28][30] - Pfizer is diversifying its business into weight loss drugs and other areas, contrasting with Moderna's struggles to adapt post-COVID vaccine demand [29][30] - Analysts highlight the need for Moderna to diversify its product offerings beyond COVID vaccines to regain investor confidence [31][35]