As president, I'm also taking on the gigantic health insurance companies that have gotten rich on billions of dollars of government subsidies. And I want the money to go directly to the people. I want the money to be paid directly to the people so that they can buy their own health insurance which will give far better benefits at much lower cost.By the way, what I told you about buying the drugs at this massive uh dollar discount, it's like from where it is, that's going to have a huge impact on the cost of ...

Labor Market Analysis - The unemployment rate has increased for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 4.6%, indicating a potential weakening labor market [1] - The report suggests that the labor market is decoupling from GDP growth, with solid GDP growth expected despite a weakening labor market [5][6] - The private sector is particularly affected, with significant job losses in government sectors, while health and education are the only areas showing strength [3][5] Economic Drivers - AI-related spending is identified as a major driver of economic activity, but it lacks the same multiplier effect as traditional spending [6] - Low-income consumers are facing more difficulties, raising concerns about the future as AI transitions from a demand issue to a supply issue [7] - Companies like Accenture and Walmart emphasize the labor enhancement potential of AI, although there is a risk of labor displacement [7][8] Future Economic Scenarios - There are two potential scenarios for the economy: a non-inflationary boom driven by AI productivity or stagflation if the bond market tightens [11][12] - The central scenario of solid growth above 2% is considered compelling but only has a 50% probability, with significant risks on either side [10][12] Treasury and Bond Market - The bond market is facing increased supply from both public and private sectors, with a notable deficit of 6% of GDP [20][21] - There is concern that the bond market may not be pricing in risk adequately, which could lead to a tightening of conditions [21] Fed Chair Speculation - Betting odds indicate a shift in favor of Kevin Worsh as a potential next Fed chair, reflecting market sentiment influenced by political statements [22][23] - Worsh is viewed as a more favorable candidate due to his understanding of Fed reforms and balance sheet issues compared to Kevin Hassett [24]

Economic Outlook - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent forecasts a "bountiful" economy in 2026, with expectations of real affordability relief for families and meaningful progress on prices, wages, and housing [1][2] - Bessent emphasizes that 2025 is a preparatory year, while 2026 is expected to yield significant economic benefits, contingent on the government remaining operational [2] Tax Refunds and Income Growth - Substantial tax refunds for working American households are anticipated in the first quarter, which will lead to increased real incomes and improved job growth [3][6] - Estimated tax refunds of $1,000 to $2,000 are expected to contribute to a productivity boom in 2026, provided political challenges do not hinder progress [6] Inflation and Affordability - Bessent predicts a significant drop in inflation within the first six months of the next year, attributing this to falling rents and lower energy prices [6] - The administration's policies, particularly regarding immigration, are argued to have previously inflated rents, but recent enforcement measures are leading to a decrease in rental costs [6] Economic Growth and Market Performance - The economy is diversifying beyond Big Tech, with positive performance observed in other sectors of the stock market [7] - Bessent asserts that growth does not inherently create inflation; rather, inflation arises from demand exceeding supply, and deregulation policies are enhancing supply across various sectors [8] Future Economic Conditions - The expectation is set for a return to a non-inflationary growth environment where both lower-income households and working Americans benefit, suggesting a favorable year ahead for both Main Street and Wall Street [9]

RETAIL SALES WERE FLAT THIS MORNING, BUT THE CONTROL GROUP, WHICH FEEDS INTO GDP, WAS PRETTY STRONG. SO THAT'S GOING TO MAKE GDP NUMBERS LOOK GOOD. >> YEAH, A LITTLE BETTER.AUTOS AND AUTO AND GAS TALK MORE ABOUT THE DATA TODAY AND THE MARKET. JOINING US TODAY IS ED YARDENI PRESIDENT OF YARDENI RESEARCH WHO JOINS US HERE AT POST NINE. HAPPY HOLIDAYS.ED GOOD TO SEE YOU. CAN YOU BUNDLE ALL THIS DATA INTO A COUPLE OF PHRASES. >> YEAH, I THINK THE ECONOMY IN TERMS OF FINAL DEMAND GDP GROWTH IS STILL QUITE GOOD.L ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the economic activity data from China for November, highlighting significant misses in market expectations across various sectors, particularly retail sales and industrial production [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Industrial Production (IP)** - IP growth decreased to **4.8% year-on-year** in November from **4.9%** in October, falling short of forecasts (GS: **5.1%**, Bloomberg consensus: **5.0%**) [2][8]. - Sequentially, IP showed a **0.5% month-on-month** increase after seasonal adjustment, contrasting with a **-0.4%** decline in October [8]. - The slowdown in IP was primarily driven by reduced output in the automobile and utilities sectors, which outweighed gains in special equipment and pharmaceuticals [8]. 2. **Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)** - FAI contracted by **-2.6% year-to-date** year-on-year in November, worsening from **-1.7%** in October [3][9]. - On a single-month basis, FAI fell by **-10.7% year-on-year** in November, slightly improving from **-11.4%** in October [9]. - The decline in FAI is attributed to statistical corrections by the NBS and ongoing issues in the property sector [9]. 3. **Retail Sales** - Retail sales growth significantly slowed to **1.3% year-on-year** in November, down from **2.9%** in October, missing expectations (GS: **2.3%**, consensus: **2.9%**) [6][11]. - The decline was broad-based, with notable drops in auto sales (-8.3%) and home appliances (-19.4%) [11]. - The earlier start of the "Double 11" Online Shopping Festival distorted demand, pulling some sales from November into October [11]. 4. **Services Industry Output** - The Services Industry Output Index growth moderated to **4.2% year-on-year** in November from **4.6%** in October, indicating a slowdown in the services sector [12]. 5. **Property Market** - The property market continued to show weakness, with new home starts and completions contracting by **-27.6%** and **-25.3%** year-on-year, respectively [13]. - Property sales volume fell by **-17.0%** and value by **-24.6%** in November, reflecting ongoing challenges in the sector [13]. 6. **Labor Market** - The nationwide unemployment rate remained stable at **5.1%** in November, with the youth unemployment rate for ages 16-24 declining slightly to **17.3%** [14]. 7. **GDP Growth Forecast** - Incorporating October-November data, there is a small downside risk to the Q4 real GDP growth forecast of **4.5% year-on-year**, with a sequential improvement in December activity needed to achieve a **5%** full-year growth [15]. Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes that the recent slump in economic indicators should not be over-interpreted, as statistical corrections have played a significant role alongside fundamental economic challenges [1][9]. - The data reflects broader economic trends in China, including the impact of "anti-involution" policies and a prolonged downturn in the property market, which are critical for investors to consider [1][9].

From the Desk of Anthony Pompliano0:00 AI & Easier Money Could Supercharge U.S. GDP Growth4:19 David Sacks Debunks The AI Job Less Narrative7:42 The Economic Transition Occurring Right Now13:35 Bureaucracy Has Ruined LA Public SchoolsEnjoy! https://t.co/2o106i193V ...

The US government wants to supercharge GDP growth.They will need artificial intelligence, easy monetary policy, and significant deregulation to get it done. https://t.co/vjdVx9f6dI ...

Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%-3.75%, aligning with market expectations for a "hawkish cut" [1] - This marks the third consecutive rate cut by the Federal Reserve, totaling a cumulative reduction of 75 basis points for the year [2] - The decision was passed with a vote of 9 in favor and 3 against, indicating a split within the committee, with notable dissent from the Kansas City and Chicago Fed presidents [2][3] - The Fed's statement highlighted that further rate cuts would depend on evidence of deterioration in the labor market [4] - The threshold for future rate cuts has been raised, with the timing and magnitude of cuts now contingent on changes in economic outlook [5] - The "dot plot" indicates that the Fed expects only one more rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027, with rates projected to return to a long-term level of 3% [6] - The committee raised its GDP growth forecast for 2026 by 0.5 percentage points to 2.3%, while still anticipating inflation to remain above the 2% target until 2028 [8] - The Fed announced plans to resume purchasing U.S. Treasury securities, starting with $40 billion in short-term bonds, following concerns about pressures in the overnight funding market [8] - There are concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, as recent comments from the White House suggest dissatisfaction with the pace of rate cuts [8]

Hello everyone. The Federal Reserve and Drone Powell, they made their big decision today. The US economy is booming.We got data on why buying all-time high stock prices may actually be a good idea. And Netflix's Ryan Sorant, he unpacks what's happening with home affordability in America. We're live today from the desk of Anthony Pompiano.Before we get into today's episode, I need your help. My goal is to get to 1 million subscribers on YouTube. That's a big, hairy, audacious goal, but with your help, I'm go ...

Market Overview - The US stock market showed slight gains with the Dow Jones up 0.22% to 47,954.99 points, the S&P 500 up 0.19% to 6,870.4 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.31% to 23,578.13 points [9][10] - European markets had mixed results, with the German DAX index rising 0.73% to 24,056.06 points, while the French CAC40 and UK FTSE 100 indices fell by 0.09% and 0.45% respectively [9][10] - In the Asia-Pacific region, the Hang Seng Index increased by 0.58% to 26,085.08 points, while the Nikkei 225 index decreased by 1.05% to 50,491.87 points [9][10] Economic Indicators - The US GDP growth rate is projected to reach 3% for the year, with expectations of a significant decline in inflation next year [8][10] - China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $33,464 billion as of the end of November, marking a $30 billion increase from October [11] - The total number of credit cards and combined loan cards issued in China reached 707 million, reflecting a decrease of 8 million from the previous quarter and a decline of approximately 100 million from the historical peak in 2022 [13] Company News - Baidu Group saw a nearly 6% increase in stock price, while Qifu Technology and Wanguo Data also experienced gains of over 4% [14] - Yum China announced a planned acquisition of a 51% stake in Hefei Zhongke Shengu Technology Development Co., with a tentative purchase price of 100 million yuan [14] - A-share announcements included a final issuance rate of 0.03348913% for Muxi Co., and a licensing agreement between Aowei New Materials and its affiliate Zhiyuan Innovation for 26 million yuan [14]