Mark the dollar. I think we will resume the structural depreciation trend next year. I think there are potentially a number of factors, right, in that the most important is because of the Trump administration's pressure on the Fed.We know that the setting for monetary policy, wherever it's at, will be easier than Orthodox or Orthodox economics would recommend. And that is at a point when the rest of the world is coming, generally coming to the end of their easing cycles. I still think that the trade dynamic ...

Fear and greed in crypto is still at 18. This is telling us that people are still extremely fearful. This is one of the lowest levels that we've been trading at during this entire cycle.We're going all the way back to the bare market of 2022. And even recently, we dipped down all the way to 10 on this chart, which is absolutely crazy to see. I think at one point in time we were at nine but I think that might have been on Bitcoin's fear and greed index because this is the fullon crypto markets fear and greed ...

Core Viewpoint - The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) has performed well over the past year, with a gain of approximately 11%, but its shares have softened due to the Federal Reserve's rate cutting cycle [1] Group 1: Company Performance - SCHW shares have gained about 11% over the past year [1] - The company's performance is closely tied to cash economics, which has been impacted by the Fed's recent actions [1] Group 2: Analyst Perspective - The analyst has over fifteen years of experience making contrarian bets based on macro views and stock-specific turnaround stories [1] - The analyst expresses a favorable risk/reward profile for potential investments [1]

Welcome to Market Catalysts. I'm Julie Hyman. We're 30 minutes since the US trading day. Here's what we're watching this hour. First up, the stock rebound continues on Wall Street. We'll break down the outlook for stocks as the bulls return. Plus, we'll discuss the outlook for rate cuts and the future of the Fed as the White House nears the end of its search to replace JPAL. and we'll hone in on the health of the consumer, the outlook for holiday shopping, and which retailers could be poised to outperform. ...

Core Insights - The earnings growth in 2026 is expected to be driven primarily by technology and communication services, with artificial intelligence playing a significant role [2][3] - There is a shift towards quality factors in the market, with healthcare and financial sectors showing strong performance, alongside technology [4][5] - The market dynamics in 2026 are anticipated to be more challenging, with a potential for elevated volatility and a need for different positioning compared to previous years [3][5] Earnings Growth - The majority of earnings growth in recent quarters has been attributed to artificial intelligence, particularly in technology and communication services [2] - A cyclical reacceleration is expected in 2026, with productivity and stable GDP growth contributing to this trend [6][7] Sector Performance - Financials and healthcare are expected to perform well in a reacceleration phase, with a potential focus on value-centric names and cyclical sectors [8] - Consumer staples may also become attractive as a defensive play in the face of market volatility, especially during the midterm election year [9] Market Outlook - Bank of America projects a 4% increase in the S&P 500, targeting a price of 7100 for 2026, indicating a positive outlook despite potential challenges [10][11] - The leadership in the market is expected to change, with a focus on sectors that can withstand volatility and provide stability [9]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is facing a divided stance on potential rate cuts as economic indicators show mixed signals regarding inflation and growth [1] - Retail spending is slowing down as the holiday shopping season approaches, raising concerns about consumer confidence and overall economic health [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is influenced by various economic factors, including inflation rates and employment data, which are currently presenting conflicting signals [1] - There is an ongoing debate within the Fed regarding the timing and necessity of rate cuts, reflecting differing opinions among policymakers [1] Group 2: Retail Sector Insights - Retailers are entering the holiday shopping season with signs of slowing consumer spending, which could impact sales forecasts and overall economic performance [1] - The slowdown in retail spending may indicate a shift in consumer behavior, potentially affecting inventory levels and pricing strategies for retailers [1]

Market Overview - Market indices experienced a positive trading session, with the Dow increasing by 664 points (+1.43%) and the small-cap Russell 2000 gaining +2.14% [3] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also saw gains of +0.91% and +0.67% respectively, indicating a rebound from recent lows [3] Economic Indicators - Case-Shiller Home Prices for September rose by +1.3%, slightly below the previous month's revised figure of +1.4%, marking the fourth consecutive month where home prices lagged behind inflation [4] - All 20 cities surveyed reported month-over-month declines in home prices, with year-over-year increases led by Chicago (+5.5%), New York City (+5.2%), and Boston (+4.1%) [5] - Pending Home Sales increased by +1.9% month-over-month in October, improving from a prior month’s upwardly revised +0.10%, although still down -0.40% year-over-year [6] Consumer and Business Sentiment - The Consumer Confidence index dropped significantly to 88.7 in November from 95.5, the lowest level since April [7] - Business Inventories for August remained unchanged at 0.0%, marking the third consecutive month without change, indicating a potential need for increased production in the future [8] Company Earnings Reports - Urban Outfitters reported earnings of $1.28 per share, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.19, with revenues of $1.53 billion, driven by a strong performance in its flagship brand [9] - Dell Technologies reported Q3 earnings of $2.59 per share, exceeding expectations, but revenues fell short at $27.01 billion compared to the anticipated $27.27 billion [10] - Hewlett Packard's shares declined by -5% following a revenue miss, reporting earnings of 93 cents per share against a projected $15.02 billion in sales, which came in at $14.64 billion [11]

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant downturn, with Bitcoin (BTC) dropping from an all-time high (ATH) of $126,000 to around $80,000, resulting in a loss of over $600 billion in market value [1][2] - Current sentiment among traders is one of extreme fear, with debates on whether Bitcoin can maintain its support level around $80,000 or if a further decline is imminent [2][3] Market Analysis - Bitcoin's recent rejection from the $90-$92K range has led to a focus on critical support levels, with the $80K mark being a psychological barrier and previously tested support [3][5] - The long-term trendline since 2013 remains intact, suggesting a macro uptrend for Bitcoin despite short-term volatility, although a break below $80K could lead to deeper support levels around $69K-$62K [5][6] Macroeconomic Factors - The primary driver of the market crash is macroeconomic conditions, particularly the collapse of expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [7][8] - Recent inflation data has caused the Federal Reserve to reverse its course on rate cuts, leading to a risk-off rotation in the market, with capital moving away from cryptocurrencies into bonds and cash [8][9]

Fed Policy & Market Outlook - The market sentiment suggests a high likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in December [5][6] - The key risk lies in the messaging accompanying the Fed's rate cuts, specifically whether it will be a hawkish cut, data-dependent, or signaling a pause [7] - The market anticipates the Fed to lean dovish in 2026 due to incoming soft data [8] - Rate cuts and stable long-term rates are expected to benefit housing and hard assets like real estate, potentially boosting GDP and the economy [9] - The second year of a presidential cycle is typically the best, and midterms are expected to be incredibly important, potentially injecting fiscal stimulus into the economy [9] Economic Indicators & Potential Growth - Earnings are supporting the economy, indicating potential for continued market growth [10] - Maintaining anchored inflation signals is crucial for sustained economic growth [10] Market Technicals & Sentiment - The selloff last week was not primarily driven by hawkish Fed signals, as the bond market remained stable [2] - Concerns about AI's impact on the market may have been overdone, with technical factors like hedge fund selling, deleveraging, ETF selling, and short gamma positions contributing to the volatility [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The Thanksgiving week is historically bullish for the S&P 500 Index (SPX), with expectations for a positive performance following a volatile week that saw a nearly 2% decline in the index [1][3]. Historical Performance - Over the past 50 years, Thanksgiving week has shown a median return of 0.8%, significantly higher than the overall weekly median return of 0.3% [3][4]. - The SPX has a 70% win-rate during Thanksgiving week compared to a 57% win-rate for all weeks [3][4]. Daily Performance Insights - Each trading day during Thanksgiving week has historically outperformed average returns, with Wednesday showing the highest average return of 0.25% and a 74% positive return rate [4][7]. - In contrast, the average return for other weeks over the past five decades did not exceed 0.07%, indicating that Thanksgiving week presents a unique opportunity for gains [5][8]. Upcoming Influences - The upcoming week will feature earnings reports from companies such as Li Auto (LI), Nio (NIO), Dell Technologies (DELL), HP (HPQ), NetApp (NTAP), and Workday (WDAY), which could impact market movements [8]. - Anticipation surrounding potential rate cuts may also influence market sentiment and performance for the broader market [8].