Federal Reserve officials sparred over whether rate cuts risk credibility on inflation https://t.co/9Xgd9ASHZw ...

Group 1: Mid-Cap Investing Insights - Mid-cap investing offers a blend of resilience and growth opportunities, seen as safer than small caps but riskier than large caps [1] - Many mid-cap ETFs are currently near their 52-week highs, indicating strong performance in this segment [1][8] Group 2: Large Cap Challenges - The global market remains steady but faces uncertainties due to President Trump's tariff tensions, which have reportedly reduced U.S. investment by 4.4% in 2025 [2] - IMF projects a decline in global growth from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.1% in 2026, with developed economies growing around 1.5% and emerging markets just above 4%, leading to caution among investors regarding large-cap stocks due to their foreign exposure [3] Group 3: Small Cap Opportunities - The Federal Reserve has implemented three rate cuts totaling 0.75 percentage points, which may favor small-cap stocks due to their domestic focus [4] - Projections for real GDP growth have been revised upward for 2026 to 2.3%, which could support a rally in small-cap stocks [5] - Unemployment rate projections remain stable at 4.4% for 2026, with a slight decline to 4.2% in 2027, and PCE inflation is projected at 2.5%, benefiting domestically-focused stocks [6] Group 4: Volatility and Strategy - Despite favorable projections for small caps, tariff-led inflation fears and a weakening labor market may lead to high volatility in this segment [7] - A balanced approach is recommended, focusing on mid-cap investments that combine the strengths of both small and large caps [8] Group 5: Mid-Cap ETFs Performance - Notable mid-cap ETFs include: - First Trust Mid Cap Core AlphaDEX Fund (FNX) – Up 5.2% over the past month [9] - State Street SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Value ETF (MDYV) – Up 4.8% over the past month [9] - SPDR S&P Midcap 400 ETF Trust (MD) – Up 3.8% over the past month [9] - iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap ETF (IJH) – Up 3.8% over the past month [9] - iShares Russell Midcap ETF (IWR) – Up 2.4% over the past month [9]

Treasury yields a little higher this morning after dipping post Fed. They were up, they were down, back up again to 416 for the 10 year, the two years at 353. And joining us right now with his insights on the bond market and the Fed's decision on rates this week is Mark Cabana.He's head of US rate strategy at Bank of America Securities. And Mark, big week. >> It was >> heard a lot from the Fed.We're still trying to figure out what comes next. Um it's a split Fed at this point and we're going to probably hea ...

Company Insights - Oracle Corp. experienced its largest one-day stock decline in nearly a year, with shares dropping over 11% after revealing a significant increase in capital expenditures related to AI data centers and infrastructure [5][6] - The company's quarterly spending reached approximately $12 billion, exceeding expectations, and it raised its full-year capital expenditure outlook to around $50 billion, a $15 billion increase from its previous forecast [5] - This surge in spending has raised concerns about the timeline for AI investments to translate into meaningful cloud revenue, pushing Oracle's stock to its lowest level since early 2024 and increasing its credit risk to a 16-year high [6] Industry Trends - The broader tech sector sentiment was negatively impacted by Oracle's selloff, particularly affecting AI-linked companies that have driven much of the equity rally this year [7] - The Nasdaq 100 index declined as investors shifted cautiously into other sectors, indicating a growing sensitivity to spending discipline rather than just top-line growth [7] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin traded above $92,000, gaining about 2.6% on the day, stabilizing after a volatile period that saw prices dip toward the low $90,000s [2] - Ether rose alongside Bitcoin, approaching $3,260, while SOL outperformed major cryptocurrencies with a more than 6% increase, reflecting renewed interest in higher-beta layer-1 tokens [4] - XRP and BNB saw smaller gains and remained range-bound as investors awaited clearer signals regarding spot ETF developments and overall market direction [4]

performance is not in the eye of the beholder and it's pretty easy to see that some formerly unstoppable stocks have momentarily lost some of their mojo. So on a day where the Dow soared 646 points SB advanced 1% but the NASDAQ where much of tech dwells declined.26 26. Let's take a hard look at what should be done with beloved stocks that have been stalled.Stocks like Apple, Meta, and Tesla, all which are up about 10% for the year. Let's start with what's h the heck is happening with the actual stock market ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold has experienced a strong rally in 2025, benefiting miners, but there are questions about the sustainability of this trend as various macroeconomic factors come into play [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - The rally in gold prices is driven by increased demand due to falling interest rates, a weaker dollar, and central bank purchases, alongside the "debasement trade" which adds bullish sentiment [2]. - The Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 2X ETF (NUGT) and the Direxion Daily Jr Gold Miners Bull 2X ETF (JNUG) are positioned to capitalize on this bullish trend, with NUGT aiming to double exposure to the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index and JNUG focusing on micro-, small-, and mid-cap companies [2][3]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - NUGT offers broad-based exposure across all market capitalizations, while JNUG targets small-cap stocks, which may benefit from upcoming rate cuts that reduce debt servicing costs, potentially leading to outperformance despite higher volatility [4]. - For traders willing to accept market fluctuations, JNUG presents an attractive option to leverage small-cap movements [4]. Group 3: Risks and Alternatives - The gold rally may face challenges as it approaches its peak, with potential deceleration expected after significant gains in 2025 [5][6]. - The Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares (DUST) and the Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares (JDST) provide options for traders to profit if the gold rally loses momentum, allowing for strategic positioning against potential downturns [6].

AI Impact on Labor Market & Economy - The market is considering the potential impact of AI expansion on the labor market, with concerns about job displacement [1] - There's uncertainty regarding AI's impact on the economy, specifically whether it will increase the unemployment rate [2] - While AI implementation is expected to create productivity gains for companies, the macro-level impact, especially by 2026, remains uncertain [5][6] Affordability & Fiscal Policy - The rising prices of education, healthcare, and housing are consuming a larger share of consumer spending, impacting affordability [9][10] - The Federal Reserve has limited tools to directly address the affordability crisis, particularly in sectors like housing [11][12] - Fiscal policy, particularly actions by Congress, such as rolling back tariffs on food or providing tax incentives for first-time home buyers (e g, $5,000 or $10,000), could help improve affordability [14][15][16] Inflation & Economic Growth - There's a risk of a second inflation surge due to growth driven by AI and fiscal policy, particularly the immediate expensing of capital expenditures [19][20][21] - The market rally is potentially anticipating an economic boom, leading to increased investment in sectors like technology stocks [22] - The narrative is shifting from concerns about economic slowdown to expectations of accelerated growth, potentially leading to increased corporate earnings by 2026 [25][26] Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - The potential for political influence on the Federal Reserve's decisions, especially regarding interest rate cuts, is a concern [27][30] - Disagreement among Federal Reserve members regarding interest rate policy is increasing, potentially leading to less clear messaging from the Fed [31][32] - The choice of the new Fed chair in May 2026 is critical, as they will need to balance the risks of high inflation against a potentially weaker labor market [28][29]

There's a lot of big institutions that might even be behind some of this sell-off that want to drive it lower because they want to get in. I think there's huge institutional big money demand to buy Bitcoin. It's just waiting to pounce. And so once that pounce happens, we're going to be at 150. I still think, and the last time I was on, I said I think we'll be at 150 by the end of February. I hate to do it, but facts change, I got to change. I'm going to back it up just a little bit and say I think we'll be ...

Joining us here at Post 9 is Guggenheim Partners investment management CIO Annne Walsh. Anne, it's great to have you here. Hi.>> What a treat. We haven't seen you in a while. So, how are you thinking about the the 2026 outlook after another strong year for the overall market.>> So, let's break it down into the economy and then market. So, 2026 looks like it's shaping up to be a year of what I refer to as equilibrium. Um, we're going to have, I think, um, on trend growth.So by trend growth is sort of you kno ...

Interest Rate Policy - Rate cuts are off the table, indicating a shift in monetary policy [1] - The RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is preparing markets for a potential rate hike in 2026 [1] Market Impact - The policy shift has implications for mortgages and the housing market [1] - The policy shift has implications for Australia's economic outlook [1]