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Core Insights - The current economic environment in 2026 necessitates a more nuanced approach to housing investment, focusing on risk management, cash accessibility, and long-term financial goals rather than a simple rent vs. buy debate [1][27] Housing Market Overview - Home prices in the U.S. remain high relative to incomes, and mortgage interest rates have increased significantly since the pandemic, altering family perspectives on home buying [2] - Despite these challenges, housing continues to be a critical avenue for wealth accumulation and a reliable long-term asset [2] Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to consider whether to invest in housing through mortgage REITs or by paying down their own home mortgage, as both options are influenced by the housing economy but differ in risk and returns [3][6] - A monthly contribution of $1,500 is used as a benchmark for comparing these two investment paths, leading to a total contribution of $180,000 over ten years [5] Path One: Mortgage REITs - Mortgage REITs allow investment in the financing side of housing, focusing on mortgages and mortgage-backed securities rather than physical properties [7][8] - Investing in mortgage REITs offers liquidity, diversification, and regular income through dividends, but is sensitive to interest rate changes and economic downturns [9][10] - Historical returns for mortgage REITs range from 6% to 10% annually, with a conservative estimate suggesting a portfolio value of approximately $245,000 to $260,000 after ten years with consistent investment and reinvestment of dividends [11][12] Path Two: Home Equity - Home equity grows through mortgage repayment, property value appreciation, and inflation effects, leveraging borrowed money to control a larger asset [15][18] - A typical scenario involves purchasing a $400,000 home with a 10% down payment, leading to an estimated home equity of about $225,000 after ten years, assuming a 3% annual appreciation rate [19] - Homeownership entails hidden costs such as maintenance, taxes, and insurance, which can diminish overall returns [20] Comparative Analysis - After ten years, both investment paths yield similar financial outcomes, with mortgage REITs potentially offering higher nominal cash balances due to uninterrupted compounding, while home equity benefits from leverage and inflation hedging [22] - The key difference lies in the nature of risk; mortgage REITs exhibit daily volatility, while home value fluctuations are less apparent until a sale or refinance occurs [23] Investor Suitability - Mortgage REITs are suited for investors seeking flexibility and diversification, comfortable with market volatility [25] - Home equity is ideal for those planning to stay in one location long-term, willing to accept higher initial costs and illiquidity for the benefits of leverage and forced savings [26] Conclusion - Consistent investment in the housing sector can be structured through various strategies, each aligning with different risk tolerances and financial goals, emphasizing the importance of method selection in accessing the housing market [27]

Managing capital in a fund requires building a strategy based on risk rather than on chasing those big wins.I'd prefer to outperform #Bitcoin consistently, and we've been working hard to ensure we're running a hybrid strategy.- Flexibility in market circumstances.- Adding liquidity during periods where we think that it's favourable to do so.That's why we scaled back in the previous quarter, ultimately delivering a 35% outperformance against #Bitcoin in unfavorable market conditions.Make sure to check out ou ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The total economic return for the fourth quarter was 10.2%, consisting of $0.51 of common dividends and a $0.78 increase in book value per share [25] - For the year, the book value increased by $0.75, and $2 of dividends per common share were declared, paid monthly [25] - Comprehensive income for the quarter was $190 million and $354 million for the year [25] - The company ended the quarter with leverage of 7.3x total equity and a strong liquidity position of $1.4 billion in cash and unencumbered securities, representing over 55% of total equity [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The TBA and mortgage-backed securities portfolio started the year at $9.8 billion, grew to $15.8 billion at the end of September, and ended the year at $19.4 billion [27] - The current book value is estimated to be in the range of $13.85-$14.05 per share, up 3%-4% from year-end [28] - The company raised $1.5 billion over the last 13 months at the most accretive levels in its history [25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced a 29.4% total shareholder return in 2025, driven by both dividend income and significant share price performance [8] - The total equity market capitalization, including preferred shares, was $3 billion as of the end of last week [8] - The company raised and invested over $1 billion in 2025, with a price-to-book valuation rising [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to create a resilient business at the intersection of capital markets and real estate finance, focusing on disciplined execution and long-term value creation [7][30] - The management emphasizes the importance of adapting to changing environments and maintaining a performance-first mentality [4][6] - The company is evolving its business steadily, fine-tuning people, processes, technology, and structure to align with its strategy [13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the impact of government policy on asset returns, indicating that it is one of the most powerful forces shaping the market [14] - The company is prepared for a wider range of outcomes and has tilted its risk appetite towards liquidity and flexibility [10] - The management expressed confidence in the mortgage market's stability and the potential for attractive returns due to rising global demand for income [11][20] Other Important Information - The company has added depth and breadth to its team, including a new Chief Operating Officer and expanded corporate development capabilities [9] - The management noted that the current environment is characterized by policy complexity, shifting rate expectations, and geopolitical crosscurrents [8] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you quantify where you see incremental investment returns today? - Management indicated that hedged ROEs are in the mid-teens with leverage around 7x, and with targeted leverage in the low 8s, ROEs could reach mid- to high teens [33] Question: How does this compare to three months ago given the spread tightening? - The dynamic is roughly between 150 and 300 basis points tighter than at the end of the last quarter [35] Question: Can you discuss the probability of politically motivated actions to improve housing affordability? - Management acknowledged the historical role of GSEs in managing housing and indicated that government intervention is possible [48][49] Question: What are the current opportunities for capital deployment? - Management noted that the belly of the coupon stack, primarily fives, has been the most interesting, with opportunities across the coupon stack [55] Question: How do you see the GSEs' longer-term role in the market? - Management believes that the $200 billion cap could be extended and that GSEs will continue to play a significant role in the market [73]

Group 1 - The year 2026 is anticipated to present significant macro risks and challenges for investors, necessitating a strong focus on risk management [1][2] - The financial landscape is compared to both hurricanes and tornadoes, indicating the presence of both slow-moving macro threats and sudden, localized risks [3][4][5] - The S&P 500 is experiencing a high concentration in just 10 stocks, reminiscent of the dot-com bubble, while "Stagflation Lite" is emerging with inflation around 3% and GDP growth projected at 2.2% [6] Group 2 - Investors are advised to diversify their portfolios away from the dominant "Magnificent 7" stocks and shift towards a 40/60 split favoring international markets to capture better valuations [6] - The concept of a "convex hedge" is introduced, emphasizing the importance of having protective strategies in place that can turn into profit-making tools during market crises [6]

RT Anthony Pompliano 🌪 (@APompliano)This master A.I. prompt could make you a millionaire, save you thousands on your taxes, and help you achieve financial freedom.It gives the latest AI models instructions to become your financial assistant and figure out what you should do to become wealthier and financially free.(bookmark this post to reference later)_____Role & MindsetYou are my Personal CFO. Think like a disciplined investor, risk manager, and long-term planner. Your job is to optimize my financial life ...

RT Anthony Pompliano 🌪 (@APompliano)This master A.I. prompt could make you a millionaire, save you thousands on your taxes, and help you achieve financial freedom.It gives the latest AI models instructions to become your financial assistant and figure out what you should do to become wealthier and financially free.(bookmark this post to reference later)_____Role & MindsetYou are my Personal CFO. Think like a disciplined investor, risk manager, and long-term planner. Your job is to optimize my financial life ...

Today I'm going to take you inside an entire day of my live day trading. I'm going to show you exactly how I'm finding these setups, the exact indicators and strategies that I use and how [music] I manage these trades in real time. Sort of the mindset that goes into actually day trading.These live trade videos are a series I like to do to kind of show you what we're working on [music] on the inside of our private team as well as what I'm focusing on with my trading. So, the goal today is going to be focusin ...

Core Viewpoint - Douglas Lane & Associates sold 65,461 shares of Lamb Weston Holdings for an estimated $3.85 million, reflecting a strategic move in response to market conditions and portfolio management [2][3][11] Company Overview - Lamb Weston Holdings generates revenue primarily through sales of frozen potato products, with a total revenue of $6.47 billion and a net income of $392.30 million [5][9] - The company has a dividend yield of 3.5% and its shares were priced at $44.32 as of January 21, 2026 [5] Recent Performance - In the latest quarter, Lamb Weston reported a 1% year-over-year increase in net sales to $1.62 billion, with net income turning positive at $62.1 million compared to a loss of $36.1 million a year earlier [11] - The company reiterated its full-year guidance, targeting sales between $6.35 billion and $6.55 billion, and adjusted EBITDA of up to $1.20 billion, alongside a 3% increase in quarterly dividends [11] Market Position - As of January 21, shares of Lamb Weston were down 27.5% over the past year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 by 41.14 percentage points [4][11] - The decline in share price is attributed to pricing pressure, customer concessions, and uneven international utilization, impacting market sentiment [12] Holdings and Transactions - Following the sale, Douglas Lane held 1,213,884 shares of Lamb Weston valued at $50.85 million, with the position's value decreasing by $23.45 million over the period due to both sales and price changes [3][7]

Financial Performance - Old Republic's total shareholder return for the past 10 years was 170%[3] - The company has raised its annual cash dividend for the past 44 years[4] - As of December 31, 2025, the market capitalization was $1124 billion and the stock price was $4564[6] - Shareholders' equity was $591 billion, with a book value per share (BVPS) of $2421[6] - Trailing four-quarter operating income was $7925 million, resulting in earnings per share (EPS) of $315 and an operating return on equity (ROE) of 141%[6] - Net premiums and fees earned increased by 98% in the fourth quarter of 2025, reaching $213 billion, driven by Specialty Insurance (up 83%) and Title Insurance (up 124%)[22] - The regular quarterly dividend was increased by 94% to $029[23] Business Segments - Specialty Insurance accounted for 67% of the $89 billion in 2025 operating revenue, while Title Insurance accounted for 33%[29] - The Title Insurance business holds a 140% market share, ranking it third largest in the industry[51] - Gross premiums and fees for Specialty Insurance in fiscal year 2025 totaled $878 billion[35] Capital Management - Since December 31, 2016, Old Republic has distributed $69 billion in dividends and share repurchases[4] - The company has $856 million remaining authorized for share repurchases[24, 66] - The investment portfolio is composed of 85% fixed income and 15% equities, totaling $168 billion[74]