Gold prices retreated in late October, raising debate over whether we're closer to the end of the yellow metal’s rally than the beginning. The precious metal fell below $4,000 per ounce from all-time highs near $4,400 before finding footing in early November. Since its price lows, gold has rewarded "buy the dip" investors, returning about 6%. Still, a 60% year-to-date return has gold bugs rightfully wondering if gold can continue its winning ways in 2026 or if they should sell to pocket their profits. A ...

“Over 98% of clothing sold in the U.S. is imported from abroad. U.S. fashion apparel companies are likely to be among the hardest hit by the tariff increase, particularly since Mexico and China are two of the leading apparel-sourcing destinations for the country,” according to the United States Fashion Industry Association .Even worse, Bank of America reports that wages only increased by 2% and 1%, respectively, for middle- and lower-income workers, trailing inflation, which was 3% in September, according t ...

I do though have some good news on the macroeconomic front. Yes, we're catching up with all the data, but the most sort of real time that we're getting is jobless claims, which is the amount of jobless employment unemployment claims that Americans file from last week. And actually, we had good news there, which was it was lower than expected and actually matched the lowest level since February.216,000 jobless claims filed in the week of November 22nd. Better than the 225 expected. So four-week moving averag ...

Applications for US unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week to the lowest since mid-April, remaining relatively subdued amid economic uncertainty https://t.co/ZexMCXlC2d ...

A new analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco examined the impact of tariffs on the economy based on historical examples, finding that the effect of import taxes on inflation and unemployment vary over time. The San Francisco Fed on Monday published an economic letter by senior policy advisor Oscar Jorda and Vice President Fernanda Nechio, both of the San Francisco Fed's Economic Research Department, that used data from four decades of international trade to measure the economic shifts cause ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated strong operating performance with a 19% return on tangible equity, trading at 7.5x PE and 1.3x book value, despite a volatile fiscal backdrop [1]. Economic Environment - The economic environment is characterized by cautious optimism, with base rates behaving as expected and a slight increase in unemployment [2].

Core Insights - The Consumer Sentiment Index averaged 58.7 through the first 11 months of 2025, indicating it may be the worst year on record for consumer sentiment, surpassing the previous low of 59 in 2022 due to high inflation [1][7] - In November, the index recorded a measurement of 51, the second lowest in history, reflecting significant consumer concerns about the economy [2][7] - Wall Street analysts expect a 20% increase in the S&P 500 over the next year, but this optimism may be misplaced given the weak jobs market and rising inflation [3][10] Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate rose from 4.2% in April to 4.4% in September, marking the highest level in four years [3] - Job additions averaged 123,000 per month from January to April but dropped to 39,000 from May to September, the lowest five-month average since 2010, excluding the pandemic [4] - CPI inflation increased from 2.3% in April to 3% in September, with estimates suggesting it remained at 3% in October and November [4][8] Market Valuation - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that equity prices are highly valued, with the S&P 500 trading at 21.5 times forward earnings, above the 10-year average of 18.7 [6][11] - Despite a recent decline of over 4% from its record high, the S&P 500 still trades at a premium, raising concerns about potential market corrections [11] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending, which constitutes two-thirds of GDP, is expected to decline due to widespread pessimism, potentially leading to lower forward earnings estimates from analysts [9] - Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.5%, up from 3% in September, indicating growing consumer frustration with high prices and stagnant incomes [8] Investor Sentiment - Bullish sentiment among investors dropped from 45.9% to 32.6% in recent weeks, reflecting a decrease in optimism regarding stock market performance [13] - If the economic fallout from tariffs leads to downward revisions in earnings estimates, the current bull market may be at risk [14]

Economic Outlook - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed optimism about the US economy, stating there is no risk of a recession in 2026 and highlighting the positive impact of President Trump's tariffs and trade deals [1][3] - Bessent anticipates that Americans will experience relief in the coming year as the effects of tariffs and trade agreements materialize, particularly in healthcare costs [3] Recession Predictions - Earlier in the year, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan raised the likelihood of a US recession to 65% and 60%, respectively, but have since reduced those estimates to 30% and 40% as tariff rates were negotiated lower [4] - Bessent acknowledged that certain sectors, such as housing and interest rate-sensitive industries, are currently facing challenges [5] Inflation and Consumer Sentiment - US inflation reached 3% in September, the highest rate since January, contributing to economic concerns [7][8] - Consumer sentiment dropped to 50.3 in November, the lowest level in over three years, influenced by inflation and the recent government shutdown [8] Employment Data - Despite a strong addition of 119,000 jobs in September, the unemployment rate increased to 4.4%, marking its highest level in four years [9][11] Government Stimulus - The Trump administration is confident that proposed policies, including sending $2,000 checks to most Americans, will stimulate the economy, although there is pushback from GOP lawmakers [10]

RT foks (@ExaltedFoks)The unemployed lifestyle is always cute at the top. But are you brave enough to be unemployed at the bottom? ...

Core Insights - The stock market, particularly the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, has faced challenges as concerns grow over the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of managing low unemployment and inflation [1][2] - The Fed's recent interest rate cuts were influenced by rising unemployment, but there is ongoing debate about potential further cuts in December [2][6] - Inflation has increased to 3% in September from 2.3% in April, primarily due to tariffs, while the job market shows signs of weakness with wages not keeping pace with inflation [3][9] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates in September and October was driven by concerns over rising unemployment [2] - Bill Gross, a veteran bond manager, has expressed skepticism about the Fed's ability to effectively manage its conflicting goals of unemployment and inflation [4][6] - The Fed's cautious approach often results in it falling behind the curve, either by acting too slowly to curb inflation or to boost jobs [7][8] Group 2 - In 2024, the Fed shifted to a dovish monetary policy, cutting the Fed Funds Rate by 1% as inflation appeared to be under control, having decreased from over 8% in 2022 to below 3% [8] - However, inflationary tariffs imposed by President Trump have hindered further rate cuts, with the effective tariff rate rising to 18% from 2.4% in January [9] - The increase in tariffs has led to an estimated average price rise of 6.14% on thousands of goods, exacerbating inflationary pressures [9]