J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 12 January 2026 Equity Strategy Cyclical groups to stay favoured Equity Strategy Mislav Matejka, CFA AC (44-20) 7134-9741 mislav.matejka@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Prabhav Bhadani, CFA (44-20) 7742-4404 prabhav.bhadani@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Nitya Saldanha, CFA (44 20) 7742 9986 nitya.saldanha@jpmchase.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Karishma Manpuria, CFA (91-22) 6157-4115 karishma.manpuria@jpmchase.com J.P. Morgan India Private Limited A ...

Core Viewpoint - Saks Global, the parent company of Saks Fifth Avenue, Neiman Marcus, and Bergdorf Goodman, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, securing $1.75 billion in financing to maintain operations while appointing a new CEO [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Challenges - Saks missed an interest payment in December 2024 related to its debt-fueled merger with Neiman Marcus, leading to a buildup of past-due bills from vendors and brands [2]. - The company has accumulated significant debt since the merger, resulting in vendors withholding stock, which has contributed to declining sales and sparse inventory [2][3]. Group 2: Market Context - Saks follows other department store brands like Barneys New York and Lord & Taylor in filing for bankruptcy, although the luxury sector as a whole is not necessarily collapsing [3]. - In 2024, over 8,000 retail stores closed, marking a 12% increase from the previous year, indicating broader challenges in the retail environment [3]. Group 3: Operational Strategy - Saks is evaluating its operational footprint, which includes 33 Saks stores, 70 Saks Off 5th stores, two Bergdorf Goodman locations, and 36 Neiman Marcus locations, suggesting potential downsizing [3]. - The merger intended to create a retail powerhouse may have instead burdened Saks with excessive liabilities [3]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Luxury retailers like Saks are facing heightened competition from online platforms and direct-to-consumer sales, with brands like Prada experiencing consistent sales growth [5]. - Bloomingdale's has successfully navigated the bankruptcy trend by enhancing its offerings and expanding its luxury goods inventory, contrasting with Saks' struggles [5].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Technology and AI Sector**: The records highlight significant developments in the technology sector, particularly around AI and semiconductor industries, with a focus on companies like Nvidia and TSMC. The demand for AI-related technologies is driving capital expenditures and revenue growth expectations. Company-Specific Insights AppLovin (APP) - **Rating and Price Target**: ISI initiated coverage with an "Outperform" rating and a price target of $835, indicating a potential upside of approximately 25% [7][8] - **Growth Projections**: Expected sustained revenue and EBITDA CAGRs of over 30% from 2025 to 2028, with mobile gaming spend projected to grow at a ~23% CAGR through 2028 [7][8] Flex (FLEX) - **Upgrade and Price Target**: Raymond James upgraded Flex to "Outperform" with a price target of $75, citing strong growth in cloud and AI datacenter infrastructure [10] - **Revenue Expectations**: Anticipated FY26 datacenter revenue of $6.5 billion, representing a 35% year-over-year increase [10] TSMC (TSM) - **Capital Expenditure**: Morgan Stanley raised TSMC's capex forecast to $54 billion for 2027, noting it is still below market speculation of $60 billion but likely to increase due to strong AI demand [11] Infosys (INFY) - **Revenue Outlook**: Infosys raised its full-year revenue growth forecast to 3%-3.5% in constant currency, up from a previous estimate of 2%-3% [20] Nvidia (NVDA) - **Customs Restrictions**: Reports indicate that Chinese customs have prohibited Nvidia's H200 AI chips from entering China, impacting the company's market access [13][14] Okta (OKTA) - **Rating Upgrade**: Stephens upgraded Okta to "Overweight" with a price target increase to $120, citing improved growth outlook for 2026 [16] DoorDash (DASH) - **Operational Momentum**: BNP Paribas initiated coverage with an "Outperform" rating and a price target of $280, highlighting strong operational momentum and rising order frequency [17][18] Microsoft (MSFT) - **CIO Survey Insights**: Morgan Stanley reiterated an "Overweight" rating with a price target of $650, based on a CIO survey indicating modest acceleration in software spending growth to +3.8% in 2026 [36][38] Amazon (AMZN) - **Supplier Negotiations**: Amazon is reportedly pressuring suppliers for price cuts ahead of a Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, seeking discounts of up to 30% [39][40] Additional Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The overall market sentiment appears cautious, with investors showing little appetite for application software currently, despite some positive indicators from CIO surveys regarding software spending [4][36] - **AI and Semiconductor Demand**: The records emphasize the ongoing strength in AI semiconductor demand, which is expected to drive significant capital expenditures and revenue growth across the sector [2][11] Conclusion The conference call records provide a comprehensive overview of the current state of the technology sector, highlighting key companies and their growth prospects, as well as challenges posed by geopolitical factors and market dynamics. The emphasis on AI and cloud infrastructure indicates a strong growth trajectory for companies positioned in these areas.

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is experiencing significant growth due to its leadership in the AI chip market, specifically with its GPUs, which are essential for powering AI applications [1][3]. Group 1: Nvidia's Market Position - Nvidia's GPUs are the fastest available, making them the preferred choice for major tech companies in the AI sector [1][2]. - The company has reported record revenue and profits, with a stock price increase of 1,200% over the past five years [3]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Nvidia faces competition from other chip designers like Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom, which offer lower-priced alternatives [5]. - Some of Nvidia's customers, including Alphabet and Amazon, are developing their own chips, raising concerns about potential reductions in orders for Nvidia's products [6]. Group 3: Customer Commitment - Executives from Alphabet and Amazon have expressed strong commitment to Nvidia, indicating that they will continue to rely on Nvidia's GPUs despite their own chip developments [8][9]. - Alphabet's Sundar Pichai and Amazon's Matt Garman emphasized the importance of Nvidia's hardware in their cloud services, suggesting ongoing demand for Nvidia products [8]. Group 4: Future Growth Potential - Nvidia predicts that AI infrastructure spending could reach $4 trillion by the end of the decade, indicating substantial growth opportunities for both Nvidia and its competitors [10]. - The ongoing demand for GPUs and related products is expected to lead to further gains in Nvidia's earnings and stock price as the AI boom continues [11].

Core Insights - A partnership has been formed between LightHouse Data Centers and Wharton Digital to create a platform for hyperscale data centers in North America, leveraging expertise in development and institutional capital [1][2] - The platform aims to deliver over 2 GW of capacity to meet the increasing demand from hyperscale, AI, and cloud customers [1] - LightHouse currently operates about 300 MW of power capacity and has more than 2 GW in active development across various U.S. markets [2] Company Developments - LightHouse Data Centers is positioned as a next-generation turnkey data center developer and operator, focusing on high-density AI workloads and liquid-cooled architectures [2] - Wharton Digital has invested in LightHouse and contributed its powered land business to the partnership, enhancing the development pipeline for both hyperscale campuses and major metro infill sites [2] - The leadership of LightHouse has been strengthened with the appointment of Peter C. Lewis as chairman, who brings decades of real estate experience [2] Market Demand - There is unprecedented demand for data center capacity anticipated in 2026 and 2027, driven by the growth of AI and cloud services [2] - The partnership aims to accelerate the delivery of next-generation infrastructure to meet this demand, with plans to deliver multiple data center campuses later this year and early in 2027 [2] - The combined expertise of LightHouse and Wharton is expected to create a robust development pipeline with a long-term runway for growth [2]

Core Insights - The advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) are significantly driven by semiconductor companies, particularly Nvidia and Broadcom, which have seen substantial growth in sales and profits due to high demand for their chips [1][2][3]. Group 1: Nvidia and Broadcom - Nvidia is recognized as a leading AI stock due to its dominant position in GPUs, essential for large language model training and inference [2]. - Broadcom has become a crucial supplier for major tech companies, providing networking chips and custom AI accelerators that outperform Nvidia's general-purpose GPUs [2]. - Both companies have experienced soaring sales and profits, with their stock prices rising even faster than their financial results, reflecting investor optimism for continued growth [3]. Group 2: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) - TSMC, which manufactures chips for Nvidia and Broadcom, is regarded as the best in the industry, capturing 72% of all spending on contract manufacturing last quarter [5][6]. - TSMC has implemented price increases for its advanced nodes, with customers facing a 3% to 10% hike depending on contracted volume, and these advanced chips accounted for nearly three-quarters of TSMC's revenue in Q3 [7]. - The company plans to continue raising prices through 2029, indicating long-term supply constraints and a strong growth trajectory, while also expanding capacity with new facilities in Arizona [8][9].

Summary of Photronics FY Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Photronics (NasdaqGS: PLAB) - **Market Cap**: Approximately $2.1-$2.2 billion as of the conference date [2][3] - **Fiscal Year End**: October - **Revenue Composition**: - Semiconductor Integrated Circuits (IC): 70%-75% of total revenue - Flat Panel Display (FPD): Remaining 25%-30% [4] Revenue Breakdown - **Geographic Revenue**: - Taiwan: 33% - China: 26% - FPD: 11% - IC: 15% [3] - **Customer Base**: Major customers include United Microelectronics (UMC), Samsung, and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), each representing about 10% of revenue [4] Industry Trends - **Semiconductor Market Growth**: Expected to reach $1 trillion by 2030, with the photomask market historically at about 1% of the semiconductor market, potentially growing from $6-$6.5 billion to $10 billion over the next several years [12] - **Geopolitical Influences**: Increased diversification of semiconductor production locations due to geopolitical factors, with a shift towards reshoring in the U.S., Japan, Korea, and Europe [9] - **Outsourcing Trends**: Captive manufacturers like TSMC and Samsung are increasingly looking to outsource production, which benefits Photronics [10] Competitive Advantages - **Technological Edge**: Photronics has a competitive advantage in producing high-end photomasks, particularly for larger display sizes and advanced packaging opportunities [11][27] - **Operational Excellence**: The company has demonstrated consistent mid-30s% gross margins, a significant improvement from previous years [30] - **Global Footprint**: 11 cleanroom facilities worldwide, with significant expansions planned in the U.S. and Korea to enhance capacity and capabilities [14][15] Capital Expenditure and Investments - **CapEx Plans**: - $188 million spent in 2025, with a projected $330 million for 2026 due to expansions in the U.S. and Korea [29] - Expansion in Dallas, Texas, to support production down to 40 nanometers, with revenue expected to start in late fiscal 2026 [15] - **Joint Ventures**: Two joint ventures in Xiamen, China, and Taiwan, aimed at increasing earnings power and targeting high-end opportunities [19] Demand Environment - **High-End vs. Mainstream Demand**: - High-end demand is strengthening, particularly in Asia and the U.S., while mainstream markets remain sluggish [37][38] - Focus on high-end opportunities in China due to competitive pricing pressures from local players [48] Financial Health - **Cash Position**: $588 million in cash, with $422 million in joint ventures, indicating a focus on CapEx over share repurchases [31] - **Gross Margin Sustainability**: Consistent mid-30s% gross margins are expected to be maintained, driven by high-end product sales [30][33] Conclusion Photronics is well-positioned to capitalize on the growth of the semiconductor and flat panel display markets through strategic investments, a strong customer base, and a focus on high-end photomask production. The company is navigating geopolitical challenges and competitive pressures while maintaining a solid financial position and operational excellence.

Silvaco Group (NasdaqGS:SVCO) FY Conference Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Silvaco Group - **Founded**: 1984 - **Industry**: Electronic Design Automation (EDA) - **Core Product Lines**: - TCAD (Technology Computer-Aided Design): Approximately 50% of revenue, a core business with a strong customer retention rate - IP (Intellectual Property): About 10% of revenue, identified as a significant growth area - Traditional EDA: Comprises the remaining revenue, focusing on niche markets to compete against larger companies like Synopsys and Cadence [3][4] Key Insights - **AI Integration**: Silvaco sees AI as a major long-term growth driver, particularly in manufacturing processes. The company aims to leverage AI to create new markets rather than just improve existing processes [5][6][7] - **Digital Twins**: The transition to virtual prototyping using AI and digital twins is essential for the semiconductor industry, allowing for more efficient process development [7][8] - **Customer Engagement**: The process of acquiring new customers for AI-driven solutions is described as a gradual engagement rather than a traditional sales approach, requiring significant collaboration and commitment from both parties [10][11] Financial Performance and Strategy - **Current Financial Status**: The company is focused on achieving profitability after experiencing losses. Plans include reducing expenses by at least $15 million annually and modest revenue growth in 2026 [19][20] - **Growth Projections**: Modest growth is anticipated due to a significant revenue spike from a major renewal in 2025 that will not recur. The company aims to overcome this loss and achieve growth [23] - **Long-term Goals**: The strategy includes building a strong AI franchise while focusing on short-term revenue growth primarily from the IP business [21][22] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - **Market Dynamics**: Silvaco operates in a highly consolidated EDA market dominated by a few large players. The company focuses on niche markets where it can maintain a competitive edge [12][16] - **Niche Specialization**: Silvaco has established itself as a leader in specific areas, such as TCAD for display manufacturing, holding over 80% market share in that segment [16][17] M&A Strategy - **Acquisition Focus**: The company has successfully acquired several firms, including Mixel, which is expected to significantly enhance Silvaco's product offerings and market position. Future acquisitions will target smaller companies with strong technology that can be integrated into Silvaco's existing framework [36][37][38] - **Cash Management**: Currently, Silvaco is focused on replenishing its cash reserves before pursuing further acquisitions [42] Challenges and Considerations - **Revenue Recognition Issues**: Silvaco faces challenges with revenue recognition due to its accounting practices, which can lead to volatility in reported earnings [45][46] - **Competitive Pricing Dynamics**: The EDA market is characterized by complex pricing strategies, where larger companies often offer discounts or free licenses to retain customers, complicating Silvaco's competitive positioning [49][50] Conclusion Silvaco Group is navigating a challenging EDA landscape with a focus on AI integration, niche market specialization, and strategic acquisitions. The company aims to achieve profitability while laying the groundwork for long-term growth through innovative technologies and customer engagement strategies.

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of passive income, particularly through dividends and dividend-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as effective investment strategies [1][2] Dividend Performance - Dividend-paying stocks have historically outperformed non-dividend payers, with dividend growers and initiators achieving an average annual total return of 10.24% from 1973 to 2024, compared to 4.31% for non-payers [3] - The average annual total return for dividend payers stands at 9.20%, while those with no change in dividend policy yield 6.75% [3] Dividend-Paying ETFs - The article lists 12 attractive dividend-paying ETFs, highlighting their yields and historical performance over various time frames [4][6] - For instance, the iShares Preferred & Income Securities ETF (PFF) has a yield of 6.37% with a 5-year average annual return of 2.05% [4] - The State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend ETF (SPYD) offers a yield of 4.53% with a 5-year average annual return of 10.37% [4] Benefits of Dividends - Healthy dividend-paying stocks tend to increase their payouts over time, which helps investors keep pace with inflation [5] - Dividends provide a consistent income stream without the need to sell off portfolio assets, allowing for reinvestment opportunities [5] Investment Strategies - Investors can diversify their investments across multiple ETFs to balance yield and growth potential [8] - Specific ETFs are recommended based on sector outlooks, such as the Vanguard Energy ETF for those bullish on energy due to AI data center growth, and the Vanguard Real Estate ETF for real estate investments [8]

Summary of Nova (NasdaqGS:NVMI) FY Conference Call - January 14, 2026 Company Overview - **Company**: Nova (NasdaqGS:NVMI) - **Event**: 28th Annual Needham Growth Conference - **Key Speaker**: Guy Kizner, CFO Industry Insights - **Semiconductor Industry Growth**: The semiconductor industry is expected to reach $1 trillion in revenues by 2026, driven by demand from AI, data centers, automotive, and industrial sectors [4][5] - **Investment Trends**: Customers are making long-term capacity investments, particularly in advanced nodes and memory, with a focus on DRAM and advanced packaging [3][5] Financial Performance and Projections - **2026 Outlook**: Nova anticipates a growth year in 2026, with a second-half weighting due to project timing rather than demand [3][5] - **Revenue Target**: The company is on track to meet its $500 million cumulative revenue target from Gate-All-Around technology by 2026 [8] - **Advanced Packaging Growth**: Advanced packaging revenue is projected to grow from 10% in 2023 to around 20% in 2026, driven by both inorganic acquisitions and organic product adjustments [12][14] Market Segments - **Leading Edge Logic**: The transition from FinFET to Gate-All-Around is enhancing Nova's position in metrology, with significant growth expected from major players like TSMC, Intel, Samsung, and Rapidus [7][9] - **Memory Market**: DRAM is a key growth driver, with Nova well-positioned among top spenders. However, the NAND market is currently focused on upgrades rather than capacity expansions [15][16][17] - **China Market**: Nova's exposure to China is expected to decrease percentage-wise but increase in dollar terms. The company does not view China as a growth market for 2026 [18][19] Competitive Landscape - **Market Position**: Nova holds over 70% market share in integrated metrology and is growing in the optical CD standalone segment, competing with Onto and KLA [22][24] - **Chemical Metrology**: Nova has a strong presence in the backend of the process, while KLA dominates the front end [25] - **Chinese Competitors**: Local Chinese players are emerging, but Nova maintains a technological edge [26][27] M&A Strategy - **Capital Allocation**: Nova raised $750 million through convertible notes to fund M&A opportunities, focusing on companies that align with their financial model and offer clear synergies [29][30][31] - **Target Criteria**: The company seeks acquisitions that are accretive to EPS within 12 months and fit their operational and financial criteria [30][31] Long-term Goals - **Revenue Target for 2027**: Nova aims to achieve $1 billion in revenue by 2027, with a commitment to organic growth supplemented by potential acquisitions [32][33] - **Growth Trajectory**: The company plans to double revenues every five years, with a focus on maintaining long-term targets rather than adjusting based on short-term performance [35][36] Conclusion - Nova is positioned for significant growth in the semiconductor industry, with a strong focus on advanced technologies and strategic investments. The company is committed to achieving its long-term revenue targets while navigating competitive and market dynamics effectively.