Investors appear to see a risk that inflation or interest rates will stay high. That may be because the political danger will outlast Donald Trump https://t.co/5HZo1D8BLO ...

to the homebuilders themselves. Our next guest says valuations are currently as dislocated as they have been at any point over the past 10 years. And when that happens, they've returned almost 50% relative to the market over the next 12 months.That's a potential profit opportunity. So, here to discuss that thesis is John Lavalo, US homebuilders analyst at UBS. John, that's a heck of a tease because if this really is kind of play out like history, there could be some real money to be made.What exactly is tak ...

Monetary Policy & Inflation - The market has priced in an 85% chance of a September rate cut, with the remaining 15% split between no cut and a 50 basis points cut [3] - The speaker suggests the Fed is de facto running an inflation target around 2.5% to 3% due to structural changes and employment considerations [8][9] - The long end of the curve's muted reaction suggests recognition of fiscal dominance, with high deficits and debt impacting monetary policy [11][12] Fed's Actions & Communications - The speaker acknowledges the Fed's recognition of higher employment risks but criticizes the lack of clarity on post-September policy and structural changes' implications [3][4] - The speaker expresses disappointment that Jackson Hole address didn't cover long-term strategy issues and lessons learned [5][7] - The speaker points out the Fed's tendency to be data-dependent rather than strategic [8] Sovereign Wealth Fund & Government Intervention - The speaker expresses concern about the government taking stakes in businesses beyond Intel, worrying about the blurring of ownership and control [16] - The speaker warns against government influence on business decisions, emphasizing the importance of a dynamic, entrepreneurial private sector [17][19] Global Economic Interdependence - US long-end rates are more influential globally than other countries' rates are on the US, with a beta near one for the US impacting the rest of the world [13]

Inflation & Monetary Policy - Tariffs are preventing the inflation rate from decreasing to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) 2% target, with inflation currently around 3% [2][3] - The market anticipates the tariff effect to be temporary, but the administration is considering additional tariffs, such as on furniture [2] - Services inflation remains relatively high, contributing to the Fed's difficulty in reaching its 2% inflation target [3] - A 25 basis points rate cut in September may be misguided due to inflation concerns and the economy's resilience [3] - The Fed's shift in tone, suggesting a possible adjustment, has excited the market about a potential "Fed put" [5] Economic Resilience & Employment - The economy is still resilient, despite controversial opinions and a lower-than-expected July payroll employment report [4] - July's payroll employment report showed a 73,000 increase, which is relatively low, but an increase nonetheless [4] - An expected increase of 100,000 in the August employment number is closer to the break-even rate needed to maintain a 4% unemployment rate [4] Bond Market & Interest Rates - Despite expectations of Fed easing, the bond market remains relatively flat, with yields around 427% [7][8] - Last year, when the Fed lowered rates by 100 basis points, bond yields increased by 100 basis points [8] - Lowering rates may not necessarily decrease bond yields or mortgage rates [9] Equity Market & Valuations - The market is in a bull market, with the question being whether it will experience a melt-up phase [10] - The forward price-to-earnings (PE) ratio on the S&P 500 is 22, which is considered high [10] - The Buffett ratio (price over sales ratio of the S&P 500) is at an all-time high, indicating valuations are not cheap [11] - Earnings have significantly exceeded expectations in the first and second quarters [11] - The analyst's S&P 500 targets are 6,600 by the end of the year and 7,500 next year, which could be reached sooner if the Fed delivers a "Fed put" [12] - The "Magnificent 7" stocks account for 30% of the S&P 500's market capitalization [14]

>> JAY POWELL WITH THIS IS RATE CUT AS AN IS NEXT MONTH. THE U.S. GOVERNMENT TAKES OFF 5% STAKE IN INTEL WERE AT A .9 BILLION DOLLARS AND STUCK INVESTORS BRACE FOR NVIDIA IN EARNINGS. SHARES AND OFFSHORE WIND DEVELOPMENT PONCHO LOWEST ON RECORD AFTER PRESIDENT TRUMP'S ADMINISTRATION ORDERS WHICH RUSSIAN TO HALT AND ALMOST FINISHED OFFSHORE WIND FARM.GOOD MORNING. LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT HOW THE KEY MARKETS ARE FARING. THINGS INSIDE LIKE A LITTLE BIT.S&P FUTURES DOWN 15 BASIS POINTS. THE CHINESE AUTHORITIES ARE ...

💥BREAKING:ODDS OF A FED RATE CUT IN SEPTEMBER JUST SURGED TO 87.4%. 🚀 https://t.co/t3Oa1ls9fM ...

JOUMANNA: GOOD MORNING, THIS IS HORIZONS MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA. ASIAN STOCKS AFTER JAY POWELL SIGNALS AN INTEREST RATE CUT COULD COME AS SOON AS NEXT MONTH, DESPITE DIVISIONS OVER CHALLENGES IN INFLATION IN THE JOBS MARKET. THE U.S. GOVERNMENT TAKES A 10% STAKE WORTH $8.9% BILLION IN A BID TO REINTEGRATE INTEL AND BOOST DOMESTIC CHIPMAKING.EARNINGS AHEAD, IN THE SPOTLIGHT AS WE LOOK AT SOME COMPANIES RELEASING RESULTS THIS WEEK. I AM BACK IN DUBAI AFTER TWO WEEKS OFF. WE HAVE A LOT TO TALK ABOUT TODAY ESPECI ...

Industrial metals and iron ore rose after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, where he signaled the central bank would likely cut interest rates next month https://t.co/ENYXKbUDaB ...

Economic Recovery - New Zealand retail sales unexpectedly increased in the second quarter, indicating a potential economic recovery [1] - Lower interest rates are starting to support household spending [1]

🚨 UPDATE: There is now a 75% chance of a rates cut in September. https://t.co/2OlNyb25DT ...