Japan’s auction of 2-year government bonds drew the weakest demand since 2009 amid speculation that the Bank of Japan will raise rates soon https://t.co/xnJbK31N0U ...

Market Trends - Homeownership is now the top barrier to the American Dream [1] - High prices, rates & limited supply are driving the barrier to homeownership [1] - Younger buyers are especially affected by the challenges in homeownership [1]

Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs raised its view of global equities due to strong earnings and a Fed easing cycle [1] - The market rally has been led by fundamentals and earnings recovery [4] - BIMO initially published a bull case target of 7,000 in November 2024 [5] - BIMO anticipates another 8% to 10% earnings growth into next year [6] - The average return is like 56% when a market is up 15% to 20% in the first nine months of the year, going back to 1950 [10] Investment Strategy - BIMO raised its target back to 7,000 as a bull case, seeing more reward than risk in buying stocks at record highs [7] - BIMO believes that 7,000 by year-end could be too low and the market could go higher [8] - The yield curve is expected to continue to steepen, benefiting financials and driving earnings growth [14] - BIMO expects stocks to potentially rise by high single digits to low double digits, near the historical average of 10% to 12%, especially with dividends [16] Economic Factors - Goldilocks is defined as steady interest rates, positive earnings growth, and positive GDP growth [11] - The Fed needs to build credibility, especially considering tensions with the White House and inflation [22] - BIMO anticipates at least two more rate cuts before the end of the year [23]

Market Broadening & Economic Improvement - Piper Sandler anticipates a broadening market, driven by improvements in both macro and microeconomic factors, rather than a significant surge [2][3] - The market broadening is expected to be more about breadth than magnitude, indicating wider participation across sectors [2] - Stabilized interest rates and subsequent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are seen as catalysts for economic improvement, positively impacting smaller businesses, lower-end consumers, housing, and manufacturing [5][6] - The anticipation of improved economic conditions is leading to anticipatory indicators showing positive signs [6] Labor Market & Monetary Policy - A soft labor market has alleviated inflation fears, allowing interest rates to decline and the Federal Reserve to implement rate cuts [8] - The current economic backdrop is described as "Goldilocks" in a post-inflation shock world, characterized by a simultaneous increase in the unemployment rate and the stock market [11] - The Federal Reserve's data-dependent approach, particularly concerning the unemployment rate, has influenced market perceptions and expectations regarding potential rate cuts [9][10] Tariffs & Market Uncertainty - The market exhibits a diminishing sensitivity to fear and uncertainty, including potential tariffs, as investors have become accustomed to navigating a "wall of worry" [13] - Investors are adopting a "show me first" approach, reacting to concrete events rather than preemptively fearing potential negative impacts from tariffs or other uncertainties [13]

Powell lowered interest ratesMore rate drops comingSEC is urged to sign off on ~$12.5T of 401k capital to enter cryptoCrypto Spot ETF approval are here with the new generic listing standardsQ4 2025 is WednesdayEleanor Terrett (@EleanorTerrett):🚨SCOOP: The @SECGov has asked issuers of $LTC, $XRP, $SOL, $ADA, and $DOGE ETFs to withdraw their 19b-4 filings following the approval of the generic listing standards, which replace the need for those filings. Am told withdrawals could start happening as soon as this ...

Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said there is still scope to cut interest rates further, predicting price pressures from the services sector and wages will continue to ease https://t.co/yydkW7gSUr ...

for a look at the economy following last week's PCE report. To join us right now is Carlile, head of global research, Jason Thomas. Good morning to you, sir.I think we're all trying to figure out where we really are. So, where are we. >> Well, I I think when you think when you look at the PCE report, I think the first point to make is that the Fed has not hit its inflation target in now 54 months.That's quite a long time. There are about three million uh children who are enrolled in elementary school in the ...

Inflation Concerns - The current inflation rate has been above the target of 2% for over four and a half years, with pressures noted in both headline and core inflation, particularly in services [1][4][5] - There is a belief that the inflationary pressures may not solely stem from tariffs, indicating a need for increased attention to the situation [2][10] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market appears to be in balance, with an unemployment rate around 4.3%, which has remained stable for the past year [3][4][15] - Businesses are currently absorbing price pressures but may need to pass these costs onto consumers in the near future, particularly as contracts are renegotiated [7][8] Economic Outlook - The forecast suggests inflation will remain above target for the next one to two years, potentially not reaching the 2% goal until late 2027 or early 2028 [5] - There is optimism regarding consumer demand and corporate profits, which may support GDP growth despite elevated market valuations [20] Monetary Policy Stance - The current monetary policy is described as mildly restrictive, with a need to maintain this stance until there are signs of significant economic weakness [29][30] - A government shutdown could negatively impact GDP growth, but historically, such events have had minimal long-term effects [27][28]

Australia’s central bank is set to keep interest rates unchanged this week, with traders and economists highlighting that a tight job market and renewed inflation pressures may limit the scope for further easing https://t.co/wrIYBrD8e6 ...

🚨 UPDATE: There is currently an 87.7% chance of a 25bps rates cut. https://t.co/nOv9Oewbmx ...