But I mean and I think this is a question for the other side as well. It's too too facing. Yes, of course, tariffs and dealings with foreign powers.But the vehicle is imposition of taxes uh on on Americans. And that has always been the core power of Congress. So to have the president's foreign affairs power trump that that uh basic power uh for Congress uh seems to me to kind of at least ne neutralize uh between the two powers the executive power and the legislative power.>> Let me say two things in respons ...

Market Overview - S&P and NASDAQ experienced their worst day in about a month, with Russell 2000 closing below the 50-day moving average, indicating increased market volatility [1] Tariff and Trade Outlook - The probability of the court upholding Trump's tariffs is estimated at 50%, contrasting with betting markets that suggest a 40% chance of the tariffs being overturned, indicating a higher probability than consensus for Trump to prevail [3] - If tariffs are not upheld, it could lead to market negativity due to deficit concerns, rising bond yields, and increased uncertainty regarding future tariffs [4] - A potential positive outcome could be a more structured tariff regime, which may provide medium-term stability despite near-term uncertainty [4] Economic Indicators - There is a tension between seasonal market dynamics and concerns over high valuations, particularly in AI-related sectors, suggesting a need for market digestion before further gains [6] - The Federal Reserve's trajectory for interest rate cuts is less certain, with a 65% probability of a December cut, but expectations of a pause in cuts thereafter [7][8] - Discrepancies in economic data show that while services are accelerating, manufacturing is weakening, contradicting the intended strengthening effects of tariffs on manufacturing [9][11] Consumer Behavior - The economy is exhibiting a K-shaped recovery, with disparities between high-end and low-end consumers, affecting consumer discretionary stocks [11][12] - Companies like McDonald's are reflecting significant signs of weakness in sectors related to lower-end consumers, despite overall solid performance in services [12]

Market Trends & Volatility - S&P and NASDAQ experienced their worst day in about a month, indicating increased market volatility [1] - Russell 2000 closed below the 50-day moving average, signaling rising volatility [1] - There's tension between seasonal dynamics and concerns about high valuations in AI-related names, potentially leading to profit-taking and drawdowns [6] - Services sector appears strong, but manufacturing and goods are weakening, creating a discrepancy in the economy [8][9] - The economy exhibits a K-shaped recovery, with bifurcation between sectors like AI and others, and between high-end and low-end consumers [11] Tariffs & Trade Policy - Evercore ISI estimates a 50/50 probability that the court upholds Trump's tariffs, higher than betting markets' expectations [3] - If tariffs are overturned, potential negatives include near-term uncertainty and the need to pay rebates [4] - A shift to a structured 301 or 232 process for tariffs could bring medium-term stability [5] - Tariffs on intermediate goods are disrupting supply chains and increasing input costs for US manufacturers [10] Federal Reserve & Interest Rates - The market still needs to digest a less certain Fed trajectory, with a potential rate cut followed by a timeout until a new chairman is in place [7] - The probability of a December rate cut is estimated at 65%, but the Fed may signal a pause in early 2026 [7]

Tariffs & Legal Challenges - The Supreme Court is hearing arguments on the legality of President Trump's tariffs, a decision with significant implications [1][2][3] - The Trump administration is asking the Supreme Court to reverse a lower court ruling that deemed most of the tariffs an illegal use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [3] - An estimated $90 billion in tariff revenue is at stake, which the Treasury might have to refund if the administration loses the case [4][16] - Businesses argue that the power to regulate imports is not the same as the power to tax, challenging the legality of the tariffs [5] - The companies suing the administration are primarily small firms, including toy manufacturers, a wine importer, and an apparel company [6] Potential Economic Impact & Alternative Measures - If the Supreme Court strikes down the tariffs, it could significantly limit the president's maneuvering room on tariffs [12] - The Treasury has contingency plans and could potentially reimpose tariffs using alternative measures like Section 301 or Section 232, although these are more cumbersome [10][13] - The introduction of alternative measures could reintroduce tariff volatility and policy uncertainties [14] - If the administration loses the case, the Treasury would have to return approximately $90 billion in revenue collected under IEEPA tariffs, potentially impacting the deficit [4][16] Timeline & Market Reaction - A decision from the Supreme Court is expected by the end of the year, but could come at any time [9] - Uncertainty surrounding the Supreme Court's decision and potential alternative tariff measures contributed to market selloffs [14]

Core Points - The Supreme Court is hearing arguments regarding the legality of President Trump's tariffs, which could have significant implications for tariff revenue and presidential authority [1][2][3] - The Trump administration is seeking to reverse a lower court ruling that deemed most tariffs illegal under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which has never been used for such purposes before [3][5] - An estimated $90 billion in tariff revenue is at stake, which the Treasury may have to return if the administration loses the case [4][16] Legal Context - The power to impose tariffs is constitutionally granted to Congress, and the administration's use of the 1977 law to impose tariffs is being challenged [4][5] - The distinction between "regulating" and "taxing" is central to the arguments, with businesses contending that the administration's actions exceed its legal authority [5] Stakeholders - The cases are brought by small firms, including toy manufacturers and a wine importer, rather than large corporations [6] - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant is present at the Supreme Court, indicating the administration's high stakes in the outcome [2] Potential Outcomes - The Supreme Court's decision could be expedited, with expectations of a ruling by the end of the year [8][9] - If the tariffs are struck down, the administration may resort to alternative measures, though these would be more cumbersome and less direct [10][11][12] Market Implications - The potential for tariff refunds could negatively impact the bond market, as the Treasury would face challenges in managing its revenue and deficit [16]

The Japanese auto giant said the impact of higher U.S. tariffs on its profit was 450 billion yen last quarter, equivalent to $2.9 billion https://t.co/Yfk1k2CHX2 ...

Toyota (TM), the world's largest automaker, is chugging along despite steep tariff hits to its business. The Japanese automaker said the impact of tariffs in its fiscal second quarter hit 450 billion yen ($2.93 billion), with its year-to-date amount hitting 900 billion yen ($5.86 billion). Toyota also raised its full-year tariff projection to 1.45 trillion yen ($9.43 billion) from its previous outlook of ¥1.40 trillion ($9.11 billion). "Despite the impact of US tariffs, strong demand supported by produ ...

The large services side of the U.S. economy grew in October at the fastest pace in eight months with the help of lower interest rates, but businesses expressed lingering worries over high tariffs and said the government shutdown could also cause pain if it drags on. ...

Through August, the government collected around $90 billion from the sweeping global tariffs that the Supreme Court is now considering https://t.co/vbBX4H0G8T ...

The markets are looking ahead to oral arguments at the Supreme Court today about whether President Trump's reciprocal tariffs are legal. Oral arguments may provide hints about how the Supreme Court might rule. The Supreme Court is expected to issue its ruling by late this year or early in 2026. Lower courts have already ruled that Mr. Trump's reciprocal tariffs are illegal, finding they are based on a specious claim of emergency authority under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act. If the US ...