S&P as we've noted, is less than 1% from an all time high. Joining us now Carol Schleiff, BMO, BMO Private Wealth Chief Market Strategist the. Carol, it's good to see you the way the way that the journal I like summarized what Powell told lawmakers yesterday.It's kind of indicative of I think what we're talking about, he said, yeah, recent economic data would have likely justified some cuts, good cuts, I think because of inflation, not necessarily for because of bad reasons for weakness. However, higher tar ...

morning. Thank you for joining us. Michael.If you don't mind, I'm going to begin with you. What do you just make of that social media post from the president over the weekend calling or kind of talking about potential regime change in Iran. And also based on reports, how effective do you think these U.S. Strikes really were.>> Well, thanks for having me on. Look, the effectiveness of the strikes, to take your second question first, I think remains to be seen from what we saw from the Pentagon. It seems as t ...

Welcome back uh to Squawkbox. Let's check the futures right now. Not a lot happening.A little bit of red across the board. Join us now with more on the markets. Bill Nyigan, Oakmark Funds uh portfolio manager.Sorry, I'm a creature of habit. I cannot intro you without mentioning that you were talking to Mark Haynes uh when the first plane hit and and um that's right. I was in the studio in Chicago uh talking about cable TV stocks or something like that and I said how long did you did they say just we we'll b ...

We've had the decision from the MPC to keep interest rates unchanged by a margin of 6 to 3, a bit closer than some had expected. Just take us through the thinking there. So we decided to hold rates at 4.25%.Today, we have been able to cut rates four times over the last year. But given the uncertainty facing the economy, we decided to hold at this event. And one of those uncertainties, of course, are the unfolding events in the Middle East and the impact that could have on the oil price.At what point would t ...

Stagflation is the combination of slow economic growth, high unemployment, and a high rate of inflation. https://t.co/3Zw5KSj7Vn ...

Market Vulnerability & Risks - Market is looking vulnerable due to elevated valuations and limited capacity to absorb uncertainty [1][2] - Multiple risks are on the horizon, including tariffs, fiscal uncertainty, and the debt ceiling [3] - Poor economic growth in May indicates a downtick in growth momentum [3] Geopolitical Impact & Oil Prices - Geopolitical situation creates suspense, but oil prices are not acting particularly alarmed, remaining below Friday's highs [4] - Markets have generally absorbed geopolitical uncertainty well in the past, including conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and between India and Pakistan [6] - Oil is considered the transmission mechanism for geopolitical issues to become broader macro problems [6] Treasury Yields & Economic Data - Inability of treasuries to spike higher despite geopolitical anxiety and weak economic data (missed retail sales, industrial production, and NHP housing survey) is notable [5] - Upward pressure on yields is attributed to fiscal imbalances and inflationary implications of tariffs [5] Labor Market & Fed Policy - Deteriorating jobless claims, especially continuing jobless claims, are a red flag indicating softness in the labor economy [7][8] - May data points to a downtick in growth momentum [7] - Fed is expected to maintain a relatively status quo outlook, seeing risks to both sides of its mandate [9] - The 2015 DO (likely referring to a member of the Federal Open Market Committee) potentially going from two to one (likely referring to a change in their dot plot projection) [10]

All right, the Fed's two-day policy meeting kicks off today. Senior economics reporter Steve Leeman joins us right now. He's got the CNBC latest Fed survey. Steve, what's it show? Well, Becky, despite and good morning. Despite improvement in the economic outlook, respondents to the Fed survey continue to forecast weaker growth and higher inflation than they did at the beginning of the year and still elevated tariff uncertainty. 100% say the Fed will keep rates unchanged at this meeting. Uh the recession pro ...

K. Thank you. That's NBC's Kier Simmons.You bet. Joining us now, Goldman Sachs of Vice Chairman Rob Kaplan, who is former Dallas Sed president. And you know what we're going to talk about.Obviously, we're CPI, PPI, things like that. Uh Rob, but uh at this point uh we have um uh obviously been sort of upended uh by what happened in the last 24 hours or so. Does it change anything for for as far as the Fed's calculus goes.Um I think the market reaction there's a market reaction obviously in oil. You see gold ...

Tax Bill Discrepancy - The White House projects an $8 trillion surplus, while independent economists estimate a $3 trillion deficit, a difference of $11 trillion [2] - The White House's projection relies on writing off $3.7 trillion in tax cuts, assuming they pay for themselves [3] - A key assumption is a sustained 3% economic growth over the next decade, generating $4 trillion, which many economists doubt [4] - The projection includes $2.8 trillion in revenue from tariffs, based on a CBO report, but this is uncertain due to ongoing negotiations [5] Trade Negotiations & "Liberation Day 2.0" - Commerce Secretary envisions "Liberation Day 2.0" as a celebration of multiple trade deals [10] - Treasury Secretary suggests pushing back deadlines for countries negotiating in good faith, potentially adding another 90 days [11] - The President's approach involves sending "take it or leave it" tariff letters to countries [11] - Analysts describe the situation as a "potluck," with varying quality of deals, leading to scrambling in the next 3 weeks [13][14]

Inflation data on the agenda today, this time at the producer level. May PPI is due in just over two hours time. For more insights on inflation in the economy ahead of the Fed's policy meeting next week, we want to bring in Ian Shepardson.He's chairman and editor and chief of Pantheon Macroeconomics. And Ian, the weaker than expected inflation numbers yesterday once again. Look, what what does this mean.that the tariffs are not going to be nearly as inflationary as people thought or there's a longer delay b ...