Global Trade & Economy - Global trade is becoming increasingly complex due to strategic decoupling, nearshoring, and tariffs [1] - Supply chains are under pressure, leading to rising inflation [1] - Market fragmentation is occurring [1] - The question of whether the world is truly deglobalizing is being raised [1] Bloomberg New Economy Forum - The Bloomberg New Economy Forum will be held live in Singapore from November 19-21 [1] - The forum will cover the aforementioned topics related to the global economy [1]

Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates for the second time was viewed as the right move, prioritizing inflation control over unemployment concerns [1][2] - The Fed signaled a return to data dependence, avoiding commitment to further rate cuts [2] - Losing credibility around inflation, especially with massive deficits and political pressure, poses a greater risk than a potential slowdown [3] - Disagreements within the Fed, reflected in dissents, highlight the confusion in the economic picture [9][10] - The Fed will stop the roll off of the balance sheet as of December 1st [11] Inflation and Tariffs - Arguments suggesting that inflation is near the 2% target if tariffs are excluded are viewed skeptically, reminiscent of the "transitory inflation" idea [6][7][8] - Cherry-picking components that have risen is not considered a sound method for analyzing inflation [9] US-China Relations - Avoiding a spiral into massive confrontation and economic conflict with China is a positive outcome [16] - The impact of US-China relations on the US economy will not be determined by soybean sales [17] - Technology, particularly competition in artificial intelligence, remains a key issue in US-China relations [17] - Export controls on advanced microchips between the US and China present a difficult set of issues, balancing national defense with technological development [19][20]

Core Points - The article discusses the immediate reaction of Rick Woldenberg to Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs, indicating a legal challenge against the U.S. president [1] Group 1 - Rick Woldenberg sought legal assistance shortly after the announcement of the tariffs [1]

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said immediate action to reduce Chinese tariffs on Canadian goods such as canola was never a realistic outcome for his Friday meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping https://t.co/WnpEilUtO6 ...

Core Insights - The year 2025 has been marked by significant market volatility driven by President Trump's economic policies, particularly regarding tariffs and trade negotiations [1][14] - The U.S. stock market experienced a dramatic decline following the announcement of new tariffs, leading to the largest two-day loss in market history [2][3] - Despite initial shocks, the market rebounded sharply after a temporary pause in tariff increases, showcasing its resilience [4][12] Market Reactions to Tariffs - On April 2, 2025, President Trump announced sweeping tariffs, resulting in a global stock market crash and erasing $6.6 trillion in value over two days [2][3] - The Nasdaq Composite fell by 1,600 points, the S&P 500 dropped 4.84%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 1,679 points [3] - Following China's retaliatory tariffs, the Dow Jones fell another 2,231 points, but a subsequent pause in tariff increases led to a significant market rally [4] Trade Negotiations and Agreements - On October 30, 2025, President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping reached an agreement to lower tariffs on Chinese imports from 57% to 47%, which initially caused mixed reactions in the market [5][6] - Earlier in the year, tariffs on Chinese imports were reduced from 145% to 30%, leading to a rally in stocks [6] - The pattern of brinkmanship followed by last-minute agreements has characterized the trade landscape throughout 2025 [5][6] Corporate Performance and Market Resilience - As of October 31, 2025, the S&P 500 had a year-to-date return of 16.3%, with the Nasdaq Composite gaining 22.9% [12] - Strong corporate earnings, particularly from tech giants like Amazon, contributed to market buoyancy, despite mixed results from other tech stocks [12][13] - The market has shown resilience in the face of policy uncertainty, adapting to both presidential announcements and corporate performance [12][14] Analyst Perspectives - Analysts have noted that while Trump's economic agenda is generally market-friendly, it carries inherent risks related to tariffs and trade policies [10][11] - Goldman Sachs raised its S&P 500 outlook to 6,900, citing factors like Fed rate easing, despite concerns over the impact of tariffs on growth [10] - The recent trade truce with China was viewed as a de-escalation rather than a significant step forward, indicating ongoing challenges in trade relations [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is navigating economic challenges with a focus on labor market conditions and inflation data, despite criticisms of its policy approach [1][2][11]. Inflation and Economic Data - Current inflation rates are reported at 3% year-over-year, with core CPI also at 3%, indicating persistent inflation concerns [4][10]. - Grocery prices have increased by 3.2% over the past year, reflecting ongoing public concern about inflation [5]. - The Federal Reserve anticipates inflation will decrease, with forecasts suggesting a return to target levels [10][12]. Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve is considering cutting policy rates in December, based on data indicating that inflation will eventually decline [11][12]. - There is a belief that tariffs have a minor and temporary effect on inflation, and the Fed should focus on broader economic indicators [3][6][9]. Economic Growth Projections - The Federal Reserve's long-term growth forecast is set at 1.8%, which some analysts argue is overly conservative given current economic policies [13][14]. - There is optimism regarding potential productivity gains from technological advancements, although immediate impacts may not be seen [15][16]. Regulatory Environment - Deregulation is viewed as a means to lower capital costs and stimulate economic growth, paralleling the effects of interest rate cuts [21][22]. - The Federal Reserve staff considers the impact of deregulation and tax incentives when estimating potential GDP growth [20][21].

Funstrat's Tom Lee. He joins me now. It's good to see you as always.Welcome back. >> Great to see you, Scott. >> I'm going to take issue like I did last time with an a comment that you gave to our producers, Tom.You think it's still the quote most hated rally. I I just don't know how that still holds water given where we are. I mean, I I I interview people all day every day.I've got no bears around. Well, um I mean maybe some of the bears have gone to hiding Scott, but because the last time we talked, I wan ...

Core Insights - Newell Brands Inc. reported third-quarter results that fell short of expectations, leading to a significant drop in share price by over 31% during intra-day trading [1] Financial Performance - The company reported adjusted earnings of $0.17 per share, slightly below analyst expectations of $0.18 [2] - Revenue decreased by 7.2% year-over-year to $1.8 billion, missing forecasts of $1.88 billion [2] - Core sales declined by 7.4% compared to the previous year [2] Margin Analysis - Gross margin decreased to 34.1% from 34.9%, attributed to higher tariff-related costs [3] - Excluding a one-time $24 million impact from China tariffs, gross margin would have improved by 55 basis points [3] Segment Performance - Home & Commercial Solutions, which includes brands like Rubbermaid and Yankee Candle, experienced a core sales decline of 9.8% [3] - Learning & Development, which includes Sharpie and Paper Mate, reported a 5.6% drop in core sales [3] Future Outlook - The company has lowered its 2025 full-year outlook, now expecting net sales to decline by 4.5% to 5.0% and normalized EPS to be between $0.56 and $0.60 [4] - For the fourth quarter, Newell forecasts a revenue decline of 1% to 4% [4]

Core Insights - Amazon's stock price has rebounded significantly, increasing by almost 12% following the earnings report, indicating positive market sentiment [1][4] - AWS has achieved over 20% growth, which is notable given its large sales base, and the retail business is also performing well, particularly during Prime Day [2][22] AWS Performance - AWS's growth rate of over 20% is impressive and reflects the company's ongoing investment in AI and cloud services [2][22] - The company plans to ramp up spending, particularly in AI, to maintain its competitive edge [2][7] Retail Business Strategy - Amazon is expanding its relationships with third-party sellers, which is crucial for competing with traditional retailers like Walmart [3] - The company has successfully absorbed rising tariff costs without passing them on to consumers, resulting in an 11% increase in items sold [12] Consumer Behavior and Pricing - Retail prices have surprisingly not increased year-over-year, but there is an expectation that prices will rise as inventory from before the tariffs is sold through [13][14] - Discretionary items are expected to see higher price increases compared to everyday essentials, which are holding steady [15][16] Prime Day and Customer Engagement - The expansion of Prime Day into a longer event has proven beneficial, reinforcing its role as a marketing tool to keep Prime members satisfied [17][18] - Prime members are perceived to be less sensitive to price increases due to the value they find in the service, which is critical for Amazon's business model [19][21]

Amit Deriani, senior managing director at Evercore ISI joins me now. Amit, it's good to see you today. Talk to me a little bit about the Apple iPhone and what it is about this particular cycle that is going to lift lift Apple heading into December.>> Yeah, absolutely. Um, listen, I I think part of what's attractive about the cycle with iPhone 17, beyond the fact there's some good features here, it's the very simple reality that you had a very big iPhone purchasing cohort in 2020, 2021, kind of the pandemic ...