证券研究报告 | 2025年12月19日 宏观与策略 宏观快评:2025 年 11 月财政数据快评-财政力度继续下滑 行业与公司 电新行业投资策略:风电行业 2026 年度投资策略-国内外有望迎来景气 共振，需求与格局变化催生新机遇 华住集团-S(01179.HK) 海外公司深度报告:本土酒店领军者的价值重构 进行时 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-12-18 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3876.37 | 13053.97 | 4552.79 | 13909.53 | 3778.05 | 1305.96 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.15 | -1.28 | -0.59 | -0.53 | -1.15 | -1.46 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 7048.95 | 9505.87 | 3821.02 | 3314.68 | 4443.95 | 387.18 | 晨会主题 【常规内容】 腾讯控股( ...

证券日报网讯12月18日，中科蓝讯在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司围绕"AI赋能、技术领先、 产品多元、市场全球化"的战略定位，持续加大研发投入，2025年推出BT897X、BT891X、AB573X芯 片，保持在低功耗、高音质、高集成度音频芯片等核心技术领域的领先地位。同时，公司进一步拓展产 品边界，推出首款集Wi-Fi+蓝牙+音频三合一的AB6003G芯片，正式开启"两个连接"战略新篇章！依托 强大的芯片研发能力与AI技术积累，打造"芯片+算法+内容"一体化解决方案，为行业发展注入新动 能。公司的产品线也正由原来的八大产品线逐步拓展到包含蓝牙耳机芯片、智能音箱芯片、智能穿戴设 备芯片、无线麦克风芯片、数字音频芯片、AIoT芯片、智能玩具芯片、AI语音芯片、Wi-Fi芯片、视频 芯片在内的十大产品线。公司将继续深化与国内外头部客户的合作，扩大海内外市场份额，提升品牌影 响力。 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that AI empowerment, scenario integration, and technological innovation are the core forces driving industry transformation, reshaping the commercial payment ecosystem with six major trends [1] Group 1: AI-Enabled Commerce - AI shopping agents are emerging as a new growth point, with 87% of businesses aware of them, particularly in retail (25% familiarity). These agents can reduce e-commerce cart abandonment rates by 66%, potentially generating an additional $240 billion in global e-commerce revenue [2] - Concerns regarding security fraud, dispute resolution, and algorithmic bias persist, with 42% of businesses expressing worries, and only 11% of consumers currently allowing AI agents to complete payments [2] Group 2: POS Revolution - Mobile POS and cloud systems are becoming mainstream, with 85% of mid-sized U.S. retailers relying on mobile POS solutions. Modern POS systems integrate real-time data analytics (57% prioritize this), inventory management, and CRM functionalities [3] - Biometric technologies are widely adopted, enhancing efficiency and security, with some restaurants achieving the capability to serve 40 cars in 15 minutes through voice ordering. However, system integration remains a significant pain point, with 32% of businesses citing it [3] Group 3: Embedded Finance - The embedded finance market is projected to reach $92 billion in 2024 and $228 billion by 2028, with "buy now, pay later" (BNPL) being a core application. 51% of retail businesses report revenue increases of over 25% from BNPL [4] - 71% of businesses express interest in integrating AI for real-time credit assessment and fraud detection, with significant regional differences in adoption rates [4] Group 4: Instant Payments - 31% of businesses have adopted instant payments, surpassing embedded finance (10%) and self-service technologies (5%). Key use cases include consumer refunds (72%) and gig worker payments (63% in Asia-Pacific) [5] - The rapid development of global real-time payment systems like FedNow (U.S.), UPI (India), and PIX (Brazil) is noted, although cross-border payments face limitations due to SWIFT processes [5] Group 5: Rise of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are gaining attention for their low volatility and cost advantages, with 72% acceptance among North American businesses. Large enterprises prefer them for cross-border payments and currency hedging [6] - Regulatory challenges and transparency issues hinder adoption, with stablecoins currently accounting for less than 1% of global transfer volumes [6] Group 6: Self-Service Payments - Self-service payment scenarios are expanding, with 83% of businesses planning to increase automation in the next two years. Technologies like smart kiosks and unmanned checkouts are enhancing transaction efficiency, leading to a 20% increase in order amounts at McDonald's [7] - Adoption rates vary significantly by region, with Asia-Pacific (100%) and Europe (94%) leading, while North America (79%) and Latin America (38%) lag behind [7] Conclusion - The commercial payment industry in 2026 is characterized by "technology-driven, scenario integration, and security-first" features. Businesses need to focus on technology integration and compliance management, aligning with core trends like AI agents and embedded finance to achieve efficiency and experience optimization [7]

腾讯云采取"基础设施先行"策略，在亚洲、中东、欧美加速数据中心布局，目前已覆盖全球22个地区。 其核心优势在于技术领先(如媒体云、音视频传输、Fintech场景)与深度本地化服务。通过成功迁移印尼 GoTo、泰国正大集团等标杆客户，证明了其以"高性价比"和优化架构(如提升响应速度、本地IDC部署) 切入市场的能力。海外竞争相对温和，腾讯主攻聚焦在SaaS和PaaS业务，海外客户主要包含中企出海、 本地互联网企业等。面对芯片供应等问题，腾讯优先保障内部模型训练芯片储备，同时利用CPU资源支 撑推理场景需求。除此以外，很多海外客户自身拥有GPU资源，腾讯帮助客户更好地利用这些资源。 海外游戏业务：工业化能力兑现，GaaS能力赋能 2025年腾讯海外游戏增长强劲(Q3同比+43%)，该行预计全年收入达757亿元，占比腾讯游戏32%，提升 3pct。加速主要系①腾讯工业化能力近年来逐渐成熟；②收购海外游戏需要有4-5年积累才能看到效 果。腾讯合作态度开放，当前观察到越来越多团队愿意合作，比如腾讯投资了steam平台排名靠前的游 戏，帮其做手游开发；帮助收购工作室GGG优化《流放之路》长线内容规划。腾讯通过国内团队的工 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][7]. Core Views - Tencent's overseas cloud and gaming businesses are positioned as dual growth engines, with AI empowerment creating new growth opportunities. The company is focusing on infrastructure expansion and local service differentiation to enhance its competitive edge in the global market [3][8][21]. Summary by Sections Overseas Cloud Business - Tencent is adopting an "infrastructure-first" strategy, rapidly expanding its global data center footprint, currently covering 22 regions worldwide. The company has successfully migrated key clients like GoTo in Indonesia and Charoen Pokphand Group in Thailand, demonstrating its ability to penetrate the market with high cost-effectiveness and optimized architecture [3][6][9]. - The company plans significant investments in overseas cloud infrastructure, including $150 million in the Middle East and $500 million in Indonesia for new data centers [6]. Overseas Gaming Business - Tencent's overseas gaming revenue is projected to reach 75.7 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 31%. This growth is attributed to the maturation of Tencent's industrial capabilities and the long-term benefits of recent acquisitions [4][11]. - The company is increasingly collaborating with game development teams, enhancing its Game as a Service (GaaS) capabilities by leveraging domestic industrial efficiency alongside overseas creative strengths [4][16]. AI Empowerment in Gaming - AI tools are being utilized by 95% of employees in Tencent's Photon Studio, significantly improving game production efficiency. AI applications are enhancing user retention through features like AI teammates and coaches [5][17]. - Tencent is making strides in AI-native gaming, developing technologies that allow for real-time scene generation and improved gameplay experiences, although challenges remain in character behavior and coherence [18]. Financial Forecasts - The adjusted net profit forecasts for Tencent are 262.6 billion yuan, 301.3 billion yuan, and 345.4 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [21][22].

收入端显示，公司第三季度总GMV为26.2亿元人民币，同比下降2.3%，但降幅较前几个季度已明显收 窄。季度客户总数突破7万，创历史新高；日均订单额从7月的3700万元增至11月的5200万元，增长显 著。利润端显示，第三季度非GAAP运营亏损/净亏损分别为2200万元/1400万元，利润率环比和同比均 有改善。管理层透露公司已在9月实现单月盈亏平衡，并有望在第四季度实现单季盈利。海外业务预计 在2026年达到盈亏平衡。 分析师模型预测，公司第四季度GMV/收入将恢复同比增长（+4%/+5%），并实现800万元调整后净利 润。 华兴资本研报指出，震坤行第三季度业绩显示，尽管商品交易总额同比仍小幅下滑，但降幅收窄，且净 亏损大幅减少，经营状况持续改善。管理层预计第四季度将恢复同比增长并实现单季盈利。因此，分析 师维持"买入"评级，并将目标价小幅下调至4.00美元。 供应链深化与AI赋能。季度新增230万个SKU，总数超1900万；新增1200多家供应商（主要为OEM）。 自有品牌业务增长强劲，GMV同比增长16.7%，占总GMV的8.2%，长期目标为贡献30%的GMV。另 外，公司正式推出专为MRO行业研发的大 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market opened positively with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.03%, the National Index by 0.12%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 0.09% [1] - The consumer sector in Hong Kong showed strong performance in early trading, with the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) increasing by nearly 1%, led by Li Ning and Samsonite, which rose over 4% [1] - The "Digital Consumption Development Report (2025)" indicates that by the first half of 2025, the number of digital consumption users in China is expected to exceed 958 million, accounting for 85.3% of the total internet users, highlighting the growing importance of digital consumption [1] Group 2 - According to Huatai Securities, the total retail sales of consumer goods in November increased by 1.3% year-on-year to 4.4 trillion yuan, with a deceleration of 1.6 percentage points, primarily due to the pre-emptive timing of the "Double Eleven" promotional period [2] - Excluding automobiles, the retail sales of consumer goods grew by 2.5% year-on-year, indicating a moderate recovery in domestic consumption [2] - Huatai Securities recommends focusing on structural investment opportunities in the consumer sector, highlighting four investment themes: the rise of domestic brands and globalization, technology-enabled consumption, emotional consumption, and undervalued high-dividend blue-chip stocks [2] Group 3 - Relevant popular ETFs include the Tourism ETF (562510) benefiting from holiday catalysts and the ice and snow economy, the Food and Beverage ETF (515170) focusing on boosting domestic demand, and the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) linked to e-commerce leaders and new consumption trends [3]

福州大学副校长卢孝强在开幕致辞中表示，福州大学始终坚持服务国家战略，在新型显示领域已构建覆 盖 基础研究、技术开发到产业应用的全链条创新体系， 学校拥有平板显示技术国家地方联合工程研究 中心等多个国家级平台，在 Micro-LED、量子点显示等领域取得重要突破。本次大会汇聚 海峡两岸 智慧，是推动产学研深度融合、应对行业"卡脖子"难题的重要契机， 期待与各界协同攻坚行业关键难题 ，助力中国显示产业高质量发展。 12月13日，以"拥抱视界变革，共筑近眼显示未来"为主题的2025第一届中国近眼显示会议在福州高新 区隆重开幕。 本次会议 由福州大学、中国光学光电子行业协会液晶分会、中国电子视像行业协会、福州高新区管委 会、国家新型显示技术创新中心、国际信息显示学会（ SID）北京分会主办，福州大学平板显示技术国 家地方联合工程实验室、福州大学物理与信息工程学院、闽都创新实验室、福州市福大微纳显示科技有 限公司承办，汇聚来自 海峡两岸 的院士专家、行业协会、高校院所、企业代表等300余人参加。 会议采用 "会议+论坛"融合交流模式，深度聚焦近眼显示全产业链的核心环节与前沿突破，围绕高像素 密度显示屏、近眼显示光学模组 ...

"单客经济"：从经营商品到经营关系的范式革命 智通财经APP了解到，孩子王自创立之初便将自身定位为"经营用户"的综合服务商，而非"经营商品"的 传统零售商。 在公司的"单客经济"模式下，孩子王通过C2B定制商品满足用户差异化需求，围绕用户生命周期和需求 周期，针对性地为用户提供商品与服务相结合的综合解决方案。 根据招股书披露，截至2025年9月30日，孩子王的全域累计注册会员已超过9700万人。形成庞大的私域 流量池，成为公司最核心的资产之一。 当前，中国"亲子家庭新消费"市场正经历一场结构性升级，零售模式从传统的单一聚焦母婴产品，向产 品、服务、社交与智能科技融合的综合生态系统转型。 作为行业参与者之一，孩子王（301078）(301078.SZ)通过整合旗下核心品牌——深耕母婴童领域的"孩 子王"与"乐友"，并切入家庭健康美学新赛道的头部品牌"丝域"，向一家综合性全渠道服务供应商转 型。 如今，已在A股上市的孩子王缘何再次选择拥抱资本市场，其商业模式和从"育儿"到"育家"的战略升 级，又将如何描绘其未来增长的第二曲线？ 此外，截至2025年9月30日，公司的销售与服务网络包括1143家亲子家庭服务门店和2 ...

作为行业参与者之一，孩子王(301078.SZ)通过整合旗下核心品牌——深耕母婴童领域的"孩子王"与"乐 友"，并切入家庭健康美学新赛道的头部品牌"丝域"，向一家综合性全渠道服务供应商转型。 如今，已在A股上市的孩子王缘何再次选择拥抱资本市场，其商业模式和从"育儿"到"育家"的战略升 级，又将如何描绘其未来增长的第二曲线？ 当前，中国"亲子家庭新消费"市场正经历一场结构性升级，零售模式从传统的单一聚焦母婴产品，向产 品、服务、社交与智能科技融合的综合生态系统转型。 "单客经济"：从经营商品到经营关系的范式革命 智通财经APP了解到，孩子王自创立之初便将自身定位为"经营用户"的综合服务商，而非"经营商品"的 传统零售商。 在公司的"单客经济"模式下，孩子王通过C2B定制商品满足用户差异化需求，围绕用户生命周期和需求 周期，针对性地为用户提供商品与服务相结合的综合解决方案。 根据招股书披露，截至2025年9月30日，孩子王的全域累计注册会员已超过9700万人。形成庞大的私域 流量池，成为公司最核心的资产之一。 此外，截至2025年9月30日，公司的销售与服务网络包括1143家亲子家庭服务门店和2567家科技养发门 ...