证 券 研 究 报 告 Company Report: Haitian International (01882 HK) 中文版 Muyang Zhao 赵沐阳 (852) 25095375 公司报告： Chinese version muyang.zhao@gtjas.com.hk 20 August 2025 供应链迁移推动海外注塑机需求 [Table_Summary] 我们上调至"买入"，并上调目标价至 26.00 港元。海天国际（"公司"）公 布了强劲的中期业绩，海外销售增长高于预期，国内销售保持稳定。鉴于关税 环境不确定，供应链从中国大陆向东南亚转移，推动了海外销售增长，我们预 计这种情况将在今年剩余时间内持续。若这种趋势延续，强劲的海外销售可能 会抵消疲弱的国内销售。因此，我们分别上调 2025-2027 年收入预测至人民币 179.49 亿元（+1.2%）/人民币 177.11 亿元（+0.1%）/人民币 203.09 亿元 （+1.0%）。我们预计公司 2025/ 2026/ 2027 年的每股盈利分别为人民币 2.127 元（+2.6%）、人民币 2.032 元（+1.4%）和人民币 2.3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rebound in China's export and import growth rates in July, highlighting the factors contributing to these changes and the outlook for the second half of the year [2][3][17]. Export Growth - In July, China's export growth rate recorded a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, although the month-on-month growth was below the median of the past five years [2][3]. - The rebound in exports is primarily attributed to a lower base from the previous year, as well as economic recovery in Europe and deepening cooperation with Latin America and Africa [3][8]. - Exports to most regions increased, with notable growth to Africa (42.5%) and Latin America (7.7%), while exports to the U.S. decreased by 21.6% [8]. Import Growth - China's import growth rate in July was 4.1%, a significant increase of 3 percentage points from the previous month, and the month-on-month growth was also notably higher than the five-year average [11]. - The increase in imports is driven by ongoing domestic production expansion and a significant drop in commodity prices compared to June, leading to higher imports of energy and industrial raw materials, particularly crude oil and copper [11][14]. - Imports from resource countries saw a notable increase of over 10%, with copper imports rising significantly [11][14]. Trade Surplus - China's trade surplus in July was $98.24 billion, which has narrowed compared to the previous month [17]. - Despite a downward trend in export growth, the contribution to economic growth is expected to remain stable due to various supportive factors, including European fiscal expansion and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [17].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The mechanical industry is experiencing good year-on-year growth in 2025, with strong guidance in the metal cutting machine and injection molding machine markets. Injection molding machine orders are increasing month by month, with Haitian International achieving a 30% year-on-year growth in June, and expected to maintain good growth in July. Southeast Asia and South Asia are showing significant growth [1][2] Key Insights and Arguments - The acceleration of overseas factory establishment is driven by global reciprocal tariffs and the need for supply chain diversification. There is a noticeable demand from U.S. supermarkets, with increased tax differentials, labor cost advantages, and the need for local employee training boosting light industry consumption and manufacturing equipment demand [1][4] - The overseas market for engineering machinery is segmented into developed countries, resource-driven regions, and emerging markets. In Q2, excavator exports increased by over 20% year-on-year, with significant order increases in emerging markets like Indonesia, and stable trends in the Middle East, Africa, and Eastern Europe, linked to local manufacturing and new energy industries [1][5] Investment Directions - The investment direction for the mechanical industry in 2025 follows an overseas expansion theme, focusing on three areas: companies benefiting from capital expenditures in computing power chains (e.g., Yingliu, Maimi, Binglun), oil and gas sector growth (e.g., Jerry, Fosda, Nuwei), and niche products like high-pressure cleaners and small generator sets [1][6] Product Performance - Key products performing well in the current overseas market include metal cutting machines, injection molding machines, industrial robots, and lasers. Injection molding machine orders are showing a significant upward trend, with a 30% year-on-year growth in June. Excavators are also in high demand in emerging markets like Indonesia, the Middle East, and Africa, with notable order increases since the second half of 2024 [1][7] Impact of Overseas Market Layout - The layout of overseas markets has a positive impact on Chinese companies with strong global competitiveness. These companies benefit from optimizing overseas channels and competitive landscapes, particularly in the injection molding and forklift sectors. The engineering machinery sector is also influenced by overseas factory establishment and rising local wages, driving overall capital expenditures [1][8] U.S.-China Tariff Context - In the context of U.S.-China tariffs, some companies have seen their competitive strength improve, with Juxing being a notable example. As of May this year, the U.S. overall tax rate was approximately 8%, which is a 5 percentage point increase from normal levels. However, the impact of tariffs on rigid consumer goods demand remains minimal [1][9] U.S. Real Estate Market Policies - U.S. real estate market policies, including potential interest rate cuts and capital gains tax reductions, positively affect the transaction volume of second-hand houses, thereby boosting related industries. This policy expectation benefits various products, including those from companies like Quanfang and Lvtian. Additionally, new U.S.-China negotiations may lead to tariff reductions, providing significant elasticity for the mechanical industry [1][11] Macroeconomic Data Influence - Current macroeconomic data, including customs data and other macro and mid-level data, reflect terminal prosperity and provide comprehensive information for investors. Interested investors can communicate with the team for further detailed data interpretation and specialized reports [1][12]

Group 1: Accelerating Development in Information and Communication Industry - Accelerate the deployment of 5G-A and ten-gigabit optical networks [1] - Promote the synergy between industrial internet and artificial intelligence [1] - Advance the research and development of 6G technology, focusing on the cultivation of application industry ecosystems for 6G [1] - Gradually open up value-added telecommunications services to foreign investment, supporting more foreign enterprises to participate in pilot projects [1] Group 2: Implementing New Round of Growth Stabilization Actions - A new growth stabilization work plan for industries such as machinery, automotive, and power equipment will be issued soon [2] - Continuous implementation of high-quality development plans for copper, aluminum, and gold industries [2] - Work plans for ten key industries including steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials will be released shortly [2] - Focus on structural adjustments, supply optimization, and phasing out outdated production capacity in key industries [2] - Accelerate the implementation of "Artificial Intelligence +" actions, promoting the deployment of large models in key manufacturing sectors [2] - Foster innovation and development in future industries such as humanoid robots, metaverse, and brain-computer interfaces, with a proactive layout in new fields and tracks [2] Group 3: Promoting Intelligent and Green Transformation and Upgrading - A digital transformation implementation plan for the automotive industry will be issued [3] - Implementation plans for digital transformation in machinery and power equipment industries will be executed [3] - Digital transformation plans for textiles, light industry, food, and pharmaceuticals are forthcoming [3] Group 4: Supporting Healthy Development of Small and Medium Enterprises - Special actions will be launched to address the issue of overdue payments to small and medium enterprises [4] - Research and revision of the classification standards for small and medium enterprises will be conducted, facilitating tax and fee policies to benefit small and micro enterprises [4] - The establishment of the second phase of the National Small and Medium Enterprises Development Fund will be promoted, attracting more social capital for early, small, long-term, and hard technology investments [4]

Summary of Conference Call on Machinery Export Chain Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the machinery export chain industry, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations and global tariff negotiations [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **U.S. Economic Data**: Recent U.S. economic data, including GDP revisions and inflation rates, have created a stable outlook for the machinery export chain. The anticipated impact of tariffs has not yet materialized, contributing to a positive market sentiment [2][3]. - **Tariff Impact**: Companies are managing tariff pressures through overseas manufacturing and price increases. End customers are generally accepting of slight price hikes, indicating a resilient demand linked to U.S. home repair and renovation [1][6]. - **Optimism in Market**: The easing of U.S.-China relations and favorable global tariff negotiations have led to increased investor optimism, resulting in a rebound in stock prices for machinery export chain companies [2][4]. - **Performance Discrepancy**: Consumer goods have returned to pre-tariff highs due to stronger performance certainty, while machinery companies face uncertainties in profit margins and demand stability, particularly in the B2B sector [5]. - **Global Manufacturing Expansion**: The acceleration of global manufacturing capacity is expected to drive economic growth, with countries seeking to benefit from this trend, leading to increased wages and consumer demand locally [8]. - **Competitive Advantage of Giants Technology**: Giants Technology is positioned favorably due to its global production layout, particularly in low-cost regions like China and Southeast Asia, allowing it to mitigate risks associated with tariffs [7]. - **Emerging Market Dynamics**: Chinese products are seen as valuable tools for developing countries, with purchasing decisions based more on product value and cost-effectiveness rather than origin [10]. - **Future Growth Areas**: The machinery sector is expected to see growth in industrial control products, equipment components, and one-stop procurement models, with injection molding machines and forklifts showing the fastest response [11][12]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Opportunities**: Other companies worth monitoring include TaoTao, Yindu, Dingli, Quanfeng, Honghua Digital Technology, and Jack, each demonstrating unique strengths in navigating tariff challenges [9]. - **Long-term Global Positioning**: Chinese manufacturers are likely to become global leaders in various sectors, leveraging their competitive advantages in cost and product quality [12][13].

Core Points - The joint statement from the US-China Geneva trade talks indicates a significant reduction in tariffs, with the US committing to cancel 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods and modify 34% of reciprocal tariffs, while China will also cancel 91% of its counter-tariffs on US goods [1] - The announcement is expected to boost confidence among export enterprises and stabilize the global market, with industries such as high-end manufacturing, agriculture, green energy, electronics, machinery, and textiles anticipated to benefit [1][3] Industry Impact - The trade talks signal positive developments for global supply chains and industrial stability, providing valuable confidence for businesses [3] - Companies in the textile and apparel sectors, particularly those exporting to the US, are expected to leverage their advantages to enhance supply chain capabilities and compete in international markets [3] - The reduction in tariffs is projected to lower marginal costs for foreign trade enterprises, potentially leading to a rebound in export orders in the second quarter [4] - High-end manufacturing and green energy sectors are likely to see substantial benefits, with reduced costs for semiconductor equipment and materials aiding domestic manufacturing upgrades [4] - The green energy industry, particularly in components for electric vehicles and energy storage, is expected to experience rapid growth due to lower import costs [4] Integration of Domestic and Foreign Trade - The positive progress in US-China tariff negotiations is anticipated to accelerate the integration of domestic and foreign trade, encouraging more Chinese companies to engage in exports [5] - The easing of trade tensions is expected to enhance the resilience and efficiency of supply chains, with new logistics models and cross-border e-commerce gaining traction [6] - A stable trade relationship will support long-term investment planning in cross-border business [5]

未来出口节奏如何判断？ 一方面， 中美虽将有谈判，但我们认为短期达成有利协议的可能性不大，特朗普的目的在于稳住国内。综合 来看，出口未来趋势仍将整体回落，至年中或将探底。届时美国通胀影响显现，叠加经济继续放缓，其国内传导更有可能逼迫特朗普 让步。 另一方面， 即便出口开启下行区间，其对应的组装进口零部件等需求也将同步下降，则贸易差额放缓幅度或更慢一些，净出口 对于经济增长的拖累也将更小。 出口有所回落，但韧性较强。 按美元计价，2025年4月我国出口同比增速录得8.1%，较3月回落超4个百分点，高于市场预期。外部困 难加大，但环比增速处历年同期中位水平，指向出口韧性较强，主要来自抢转口以及部分商品关税豁免。 一方面， 虽对美国直接出口 回落明显，但对东盟等转口国出口大幅上行，结合美进口集装箱中枢仍居高位，指向"抢转口"对冲规模不小。 另一方面， 美国4月中 旬豁免来自中国超两成商品的出口关税。 数量拉动下降，价格拖累收窄。 按数量和价格因素拆解十余种代表性商品的出口增速，我们发现，4月代表性商品出口增速中，受关 税和高基数等因素影响，数量拉动作用下降，而价格拖累有所收窄。 分品类来看， 电子和劳动密集型数量拉 ...

【文/观察者网 张菁娟】将关税视为限制外国商品利器的美国总统特朗普，试图用"关税墙"加大对美国 国内产业的保护，推动美国制造业振兴，但这一努力似乎对中国并不奏效。 美国《华盛顿邮报》27日报道称，美国工厂依赖中国机械与部件。虽然特朗普声称，其贸易政策是为美 国制造业"黄金时代"播种，但贸易专家和企业指出，广泛征收关税反而会使部分行业的复苏变得更加复 杂。 报道称，美国经济不仅依赖中国的玩具和笔记本电脑等成品，其本土工厂生产从汽车到电子产品等各类 商品所需的工具都依赖于中国。 "美国机械行业整体状况并不乐观。各行业所需产能中，中国占据巨大份额。"俄亥俄州凯斯西储大学经 济学家、前拜登政府工业战略高级顾问赫尔珀（Susan Helper）说。 报道认为，关税导致的工业机械价格飙升仅是贸易战引发经济混乱与不确定性的冰山一角，既凸显中美 两国经济的相互依存，也暴露近几十年的全球化恐难使供应链回流。 赫尔珀补充道："能生产制造工具的能力至关重要，但这不是一朝一夕的事，仅靠关税无法实现。" 报道称，过去十年，中国机械工业已崛起为全球主导力量。自2015年以来，中国的机械出口额增长了一 倍多，2024年达到8690亿美元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" investment rating to the company, indicating that the expected performance is within a range of -5% to 5% relative to the benchmark index [12]. Core Insights - The company is projected to experience a revenue growth rate of -1.28% in 2024, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 13.35%, 12.93%, and 13.95% in the subsequent years [8]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 5,976.12 million yuan in 2024 to 12,669.31 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 23.99% [8]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 22.55% in 2024 to 24.56% in 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [8]. Financial Summary Income Statement - Revenue is forecasted to increase from 91,659.76 million yuan in 2024 to 133,696.80 million yuan in 2027 [8]. - Operating profit is projected to rise from 6,529.33 million yuan in 2024 to 13,907.27 million yuan in 2027 [8]. - The net profit margin is expected to improve from 6.52% in 2024 to 9.48% in 2027 [8]. Balance Sheet - Total assets are expected to grow from 160,969.81 million yuan in 2024 to 205,666.51 million yuan in 2027 [7]. - The company's total liabilities are projected to increase from 100,508.07 million yuan in 2024 to 125,997.50 million yuan in 2027 [7]. - Shareholder equity attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 59,308.74 million yuan in 2024 to 78,478.06 million yuan in 2027 [7]. Cash Flow Statement - Operating cash flow is forecasted to increase significantly from 5,719.89 million yuan in 2024 to 15,483.28 million yuan in 2027 [7]. - The net cash increase is expected to turn positive, reaching 7,891.64 million yuan by 2027, after a negative cash flow in 2024 [7]. Key Financial Ratios - The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 17.72 in 2024 to 8.36 in 2027, indicating a potentially undervalued stock as earnings grow [8]. - The Return on Equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 10.08% in 2024 to 16.14% in 2027, reflecting better profitability for shareholders [8]. - The company's debt-to-equity ratio is projected to decrease, indicating a strengthening balance sheet and reduced financial risk [8].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the mechanical industry, highlighting the transition towards new productive forces and technological innovation as key drivers for growth and credit quality improvement. Core Insights - The development of new productive forces is driving technological innovation and structural upgrades in the mechanical industry, creating new market demands and business models [2][4][5]. - Key areas of growth include industrial humanoid robots, industrial 3D printing equipment, low-altitude economic industrial drones, AGV intelligent logistics, and high-precision military products, all of which exhibit high growth potential and are becoming new growth engines for the industry [2][4][12]. - The mechanical industry is accelerating its shift from traditional energy to new productive forces, with significant impacts on revenue and operational efficiency from technological investments [2][79]. Summary by Sections 1. Characteristics of the Mechanical Industry's Transformation - The mechanical industry is experiencing a comprehensive impact from the development of new productive forces, which is fostering technological innovation and structural upgrades [4][5]. - New productive forces are characterized by high technology, high efficiency, and high quality, leading to a systemic leap in production methods and significant improvements in overall productivity [5][6]. 2. Performance of New Productive Forces in the Mechanical Industry - The report identifies several key areas where new productive forces are manifesting, including the establishment of technology innovation platforms, the construction of intelligent factories, and the adoption of remanufacturing technologies [18][20][24]. - The intelligent factory projects have shown significant improvements in productivity and efficiency, with examples such as SANY Heavy Industry achieving a fourfold increase in per capita output [20][22]. 3. Representative Fields and Distribution of New Productive Forces - The report highlights the industrial humanoid robots, industrial 3D printers, low-altitude economic drones, AGV intelligent logistics, and high-precision military products as key sectors driving the mechanical industry's future growth [28][29][39]. - The market for industrial humanoid robots is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a global market size of $38 billion by 2030, driven by advancements in AI and robotics [38]. 4. Impact of Technological Factors on Credit Quality in the Mechanical Industry - Technological investments are expected to enhance credit quality in the long term, with pathways including improved market share, cash flow stability, and asset value enhancement [79][82]. - The report presents a quantitative analysis showing that the average total factor productivity (TFP) growth rate in the mechanical industry is 1.78%, indicating a shift towards new productive forces [82][84]. 5. Trends in Credit Quality in the Mechanical Industry - The overall credit quality of the mechanical industry is improving, with significant differentiation among companies during the transition period [91]. - New productive forces are associated with high growth and high added value, leading to enhanced credit quality through improvements in cost structure, profit margins, and market responsiveness [91].