Payroll Analysis - Initial market reaction to headline payroll numbers may be overstated, requiring deeper analysis [1][4][5] - Private payrolls show a slowdown, below 68,000 and the six-month average, indicating a softening job market [3][4] - Government payrolls present a mixed picture, with federal government down due to cuts, while state and local government is up, potentially due to education workers returning [2] - Payroll revisions were surprisingly positive, contrasting with expectations of a downward revision [8] - Overstated payroll figures raise concerns about underlying weakness in the job market [7] Economic Outlook - The payroll data validates a broader economic slowdown, consistent with a mid-cycle slowdown rather than a recession [11][12] - Market valuations may be disconnected from the economic slowdown, requiring caution [12] - Potential for a stimulative bill from Washington D C, could be conducive to risk assets [9] Corporate Impact - Corporate profit margins and reactions are crucial to watch, with the impact still unfolding [6][8] - Layoff environment remains benign, but its sustainability needs monitoring [8] Monetary Policy - The Fed is expected to cut rates in September and potentially later this year [10]

Market Trend & Dollar Impact - A weaker dollar generally supports stocks, benefiting companies with overseas sales [2][3] - Approximately 40% of S&P 500 sales are outside the US, making a weaker dollar a positive factor [3] - Multinational corporations may find a cushion in overseas earnings due to the weaker dollar, especially if domestic conditions are uncertain [4] Economic Outlook & Valuation - The US economy experienced an average growth of 1% in the first half of the year [6] - Market valuations are considered expensive by traditional metrics, but low oil prices and interest rates support high valuations [7][8] - Key risks to watch include spikes in interest rates, oil prices, and unemployment, as these could negatively impact valuations [9] Employment & Monetary Policy - The employment backdrop has been softening for over a year, indicating a bifurcated economy with some companies needing to conduct layoffs [11] - A glacial slowdown in employment is anticipated to lead to rate cuts [12] - The current economic situation is not expected to result in a recession similar to 2007 [12]

Economic Outlook - Asia's manufacturing activity slowdown deepened in June, signaling a warning for the region's growth prospects [1]

China's Economic Slowdown - China Beige Book data indicates a broad slowdown in China's economy, with declines in manufacturing, consumption, and bank borrowing [3] - May data initially appeared positive due to tariff reductions and consumer trade-in programs, but subsequent data revealed a fall-off [2][3] Beijing's Policy Stance - Beijing seems less concerned about the economic situation and is intervening less aggressively than before [4] - This reduced concern is attributed to Beijing's confidence in its leverage in trade discussions with the United States [4] - China is easing rates and engaging in fiscal stimulus, but not to the extent that would be expected in an extreme downside scenario [5][6] Trade War Dynamics - China is perceived to be able to withstand more economic pain compared to Western democracies [8] - China is using export controls, particularly on rare earth magnets, to demonstrate leverage against the United States [8] - China feels it has presented a strong front in the trade war, reducing the immediate need for aggressive economic measures [9] Consumption and Manufacturing - Claims of China transforming into a mega consumer powerhouse are viewed skeptically [10][11] - China's weak domestic demand leads to increased exports and potential dumping of products on global markets [13][14] - Overcapacity in various sectors, including cars and EVs, contributes to the pressure to export [17] Overcapacity and Export Strategy - China's economic model, characterized by weak domestic consumption and strong supply-side support, results in overcapacity being channeled to the global market [17] - This overcapacity can be used strategically to exert leverage on adversaries like the United States, particularly in critical minerals [16]

We spoke just a few moments ago about what we were expecting. 7-2 seems to have been the consensus a little bit may be more dovish in terms of the vote split. That looks like it, Guy.Absolutely. As you say, the hold was widely expected, but all the focus as your last guest was also saying, is on whether the break down was going to be seven members of the monetary policy committee voting to to hold and to for a quarter point cut. But in fact, we've got three for a quarter point cut.And it looks like the addi ...

Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's actions, whether tightening or easing, significantly influence the economy and investment landscape [1][2] - Interest rate hikes by the Fed can lead to economic slowdown, stock market declines, and reduced business investment [1][3] - Conversely, interest rate cuts can stimulate economic activity by lowering borrowing costs and encouraging spending and investment [4][5] Economic Cycle - Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs for companies and individuals, leading to project cancellations and layoffs [3][4] - Lower interest rates decrease the incentive to save, prompting increased spending and investment in riskier assets [5] - A cycle of increased consumer spending and business expansion can be triggered by Fed easing, leading to job creation and further economic growth [6][7] Sector Analysis - Financials typically benefit from higher interest rates, but not as much from lower rates [6]

erases its early losses here. Now back to flat. Meantime with the hearing with the Treasury Secretary is now underway.Joining us this morning Roger Altman here at post nine. Evercore senior chairman and founder and former deputy Treasury Secretary Roger thanks for coming in. Good to see you.I'm not sure where you want to start. If you believe. >> We pick up on something that you just said, which is Goldman has up raised its growth forecast for the year from one I think you said to one and a quarter.Yes. But ...

Event Focus - Bloomberg News will host its annual Global Credit Forum in Los Angeles [1] - Bloomberg Television's Lisa Abramowicz and Dani Burger will speak at the forum [1] Key Concerns - The forum will address questions around trade wars [1] - Persistent inflation is a major topic of discussion [1] - Growing concern of a slowdown in the world's largest economy will be explored [1] Market Outlook - The forum aims to explore where the market goes from here [1]

Stocks are mixed today. The S&P 500 holding above the 6,000 level. The benchmark index has bounced over 20% from its April lows.Our next guest calling for caution amid the rally, citing re recent weakness in economic data. Joining us now, David Kelly. He is JP Morgan Asset Management's chief global strategist and head of the global market insights strategy team.David, it's wonderful to speak with you. Thank you for making the time this morning. I know in your latest you talk about how you see an economy tha ...

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) shares have tumbled 15% in the past three months compared with the industry’s decline of 10.3%. The stock has been rattled by escalating trade war concerns, with tariffs raising fears of high inflation and a possible global economic slowdown.Following the broader market trend, GS’s peer JPMorgan (JPM) and Morgan Stanley’s (MS) shares fell 8% and 14.6%, respectively, over the same time frame.Price Performance Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Given the recent pullback ...