Economic Outlook - Singapore's financial sector is projected to experience slower growth in the coming years [1] - Trade and geopolitical tensions are creating uncertainty for Singapore's economic outlook [1] Industry Impact - The trade-dependent nature of Singapore makes it vulnerable to global economic headwinds [1]

Market Concerns & Tariff Impact - The primary concern revolves around the ultimate impact of tariff uncertainty on economic growth, both domestically and internationally [2][3][4] - Tariffs are projected to be significantly higher than last year's 25%, potentially reaching high single digits or even higher across the economy [3] - International trade may suffer as slower corporate earnings growth occurs due to decreased demand caused by tariffs [4] - The full impact of tariffs is yet to be felt, suggesting potential future headwinds for corporations [5] Economic Outlook & Inflation - The economy is currently holding up well, as evidenced by the labor market and inflation data [6][7] - Inflation numbers are expected to rise in the July and August readings, with acceleration later in the year [7] - The Federal Reserve is likely to remain on hold at the July meeting and potentially the following meeting due to uncertainty about inflation [7] Corporate Earnings - Second-quarter earnings are expected to be favorable, with anticipated growth of only 2% to 3% [8] - Third-quarter reports are expected to reveal more concerns from companies regarding coping with tariffs [8] Cryptocurrency - Crypto and Bitcoin are viewed as a play on inflation and the dollar, functioning as a currency [9] - They can serve as a hedge against inflation and dollar uncertainty, similar to gold, but lack cash flow [10] - Investing in companies like Coinbase is suggested, as they can profit regardless of Bitcoin's price fluctuations [11]

Trade & Tariff Policy - The administration suggests that most trading partners could face tariff rates between 15% and 20% [1] - The country faces an urgent national emergency due to massive trade deficits, cumulatively around $18 trillion over several decades, representing a transfer of wealth, factories, and jobs abroad [2] - The US has collected approximately $100 billion in tariffs, marking a record for a single fiscal year [4] - The US is collecting $18 billion in tariffs from China alone on fentanyl [5] - A 35% tariff threat is being considered for Canada, but it is not yet applied under the USMCA agreement [7][8] - The administration is considering a potential 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals, possibly with a delay of over a year to allow supply chains to reorient [12] - Section 232 tariffs aim to strengthen the defense, manufacturing, and health industrial bases [13] Economic Impact & Fiscal Policy - The administration believes that combined with tariff revenues, the "big, beautiful bill" will turn a $2 to $3 trillion deficit into a $2 to $3 trillion surplus [16] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts a 18% rate of economic growth, which the administration considers too low [18] - Increasing the growth rate by 1% could raise a couple of trillion dollars, potentially leading to neutrality in the debt [19] - A 50 basis point increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve (FED) could lead to a 025% to 05% reduction in GDP growth, resulting in 500000 to 750000 fewer jobs [22][23] - A half-point increase on short-term debt could add a couple of hundred billion dollars to the debt over ten years [24] Monetary Policy & Federal Reserve - There is an argument that the Federal Reserve is at least 50 basis points above where it should be, suggesting a need for lower rates [22] - The bond market may perceive Jerome Powell as ineffective due to his actions [27] - The Federal Reserve (FED) chair should have taken action to address fiscal policy concerns, similar to William McChesney Martin's approach during the Vietnam War [31][32]

8 July 2025 | 11:02PM HKT China: Reported nationwide childbirth subsidy – potentially a modest boost to H2 growth Bottom line: Recent media reports suggest that the Chinese government will launch a nationwide childbirth subsidy program soon (RMB 3,600 per year for each child until they turn three years old), although this has yet to be officially announced. In our view, the subsidy program reflects China's new policy thinking and long-term planning to counteract cyclical and structural growth headwinds. Bas ...

Trade Policy & Tariffs - The current US effective tariff rate stands at 15%, increasing to 17% after recent trade agreements, significantly higher than the pre-administration level of 2% or less [9] - The imposition of tariffs is viewed as taxes on American businesses and consumers, ultimately leading to higher prices and reduced spending [14][17] - The US trade policy is causing a reshaping of global supply chains, trade relationships, and geopolitical dynamics [11] - There is concern that the US President's approach to trade deals lacks binding commitment and can be unilaterally altered, making it difficult for other countries to offer meaningful concessions [6][7] Economic Impact - The tariffs are expected to negatively impact economic growth and employment in the latter half of the year [17][18] - Consumers are starting to feel the impact of tariffs through increased costs, as exemplified by unexpected tariff charges on imported goods [15][16] Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - The US President is expected to exert pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, potentially compromising the Fed's independence and its broader economic objectives [21][22]

As Republicans work to pass President Trump's mega bill in the House, our next guest has spoken out against it, calling it a quote nightmare for working families. Joining us right now is Democratic governor of Maryland, West Moore in the House at the table. Good morning to you, sir. Good morning.This thing seems like a fa plea. I mean, Hakeim Jeff is speaking. We'll see how long he can keep that going.Uh, but when he stops, it sounds like this is going to happen. Uh, you have been very critical of it. In so ...

Fiscal Policy & Economic Impact - The Trump administration's spending bill is projected to increase the US deficit by $33 trillion [1] - White House officials claim the bill will protect and strengthen Medicaid for the needy, pregnant women, children, and sick Americans [2] - The administration projects 3% growth from the bill, adding $4 trillion to revenue, positioning it as a deficit reducer [2] - Economists criticize the GOP for using "accounting creative writing" to mask the $4 trillion cost of the tax bill [3] - The White House Council of Economic Advisers believes the bill will reduce the national debt, a claim considered absurd by some economists [8] Market & Investor Sentiment - Despite concerns about US debt, the stock market initially reacted positively to the bill [10] - The bond market is less enthusiastic than the stock market, and the dollar has performed poorly against other currencies [11] - Some believe the stock market's optimism is fueled by hopes that AI will change the world [11] Trade & Tariffs - Negotiations are slowing because President Trump threatens to impose more tariffs even after a deal [12] - No one has permission to make actual deals for the United States except for the president [13] - Imposing new tariffs upsets the apple cart and restarts negotiations from scratch [14] - The president could tear up trade agreements and demand new ones, undermining commitment [15] Immigration & Labor - The Trump administration is rethinking deportation policies for migrants working in industries like hospitality and agriculture [17] - The administration is considering a temporary pass for farm workers where farmers can have some control [18] - Uncertainty around immigration policies makes it difficult for farmers and hospitality companies to plan, as workers may not show up due to fear of ICE [22]

Economic Outlook - Despite the trade truce, economic numbers appear soft, necessitating a broader perspective [1] - Macro policy improvements in September of last year, along with front-loaded activity in Q1, led to solid data in Q4 of last year and Q1 of this year [2] - The underlying economic momentum is moderating due to trade tariff issues with the US and increasing external uncertainty [2][3] - The baseline expectation is for sequential growth of the Chinese economy to slow from approximately 66% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 to around 35% in Q2, and further to 3% in Q3 [3] - PMI numbers align with expectations of moderating economic momentum [4] Sector Performance - Diverging trends exist across different sectors, with China's exports to the US down 40% in April and May [5] - Sectors receiving policy support, such as training subsidies and equipment upgrades, are performing well [6] - The housing sector continues to be a drag on the economy and has not yet bottomed out [6] - Consumer sentiment outside of policy support areas remains at a historical low [7] Policy Implications - Domestic and consumption support are crucial for policy focus this year [7] - Subsidies for consumer durables and autos have shown some impact, but their effect will fade by year-end [7] - Further policy support, particularly for services consumption, is needed [8]

Tax and Spending Bill - The administration aims to pass the tax and spending bill, potentially leading to significant economic changes [1][2] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates the Senate bill will increase the deficit by $33 trillion (3300 billion) from 2025 to 2034, a figure the National Economic Council Director disagrees with [3][4] - The administration projects that achieving 3% growth, instead of 18% (1.8%), would add $4 trillion to revenue, potentially making the bill a deficit reducer [4] - The administration plans to send discretionary spending cuts to the Senate, potentially amounting to $160 billion this year [5] Economic Growth and Impact - The administration believes the bill relies on the economy moving up to 3% growth, driven by factors like no tax on overtime for 90 million American hourly workers [6][7] - The Council of Economic Advisers projects the bill will increase income for the typical American family by $10000 [8] Energy Policy - The administration supports an "all of the above" approach to energy production, including coal, natural gas, oil, and nuclear, to support AI and other sectors [10][11] - The administration prioritizes grid security, suggesting that solar and wind energy must pass a market test and not compromise grid reliability [15] Trade and International Tax - The administration expects digital services taxes around the world to be removed as part of ongoing trade negotiations [20] - The G7 countries have agreed not to have the so-called pillar 2 tax (global minimum tax) [21] - The administration has double-digit trade deals with frameworks nearly agreed to, with potential tariff rate adjustments to be determined [23]

It's very important. If we don't have it, there's a 68% tax increase. If we don't have it, you know, the debt ceiling extension is very important.They gave a debt ceiling. The Republicans gave a debt ceiling because of the importance of doing it. They did that for the good of the country and Republicans voted for that.[Music] We're cutting 1.7%. Let's see. We're cutting Yeah.1.7% trillion. Think of it. I think I just saw the number a little while ago.$1.7% trillion. But we can grow our country so much more ...