Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming week [1] Group 1 - The market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's decision regarding interest rates [1]

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.79%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.66%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +1.04%.  December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) are up +0.68%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) are up +0.89%. Stock indexes are trading higher after today’s slightly weaker-than-expected US CPI report arguably gave the Fed more latitude to cut interest rates.  The Sep CPI report of +0.3% m/m and +3.0% y/y was slightly weaker than market expecta ...

BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI / AFP via Getty Images Federal Reserve officials such as Chair Jerome Powell have said they're paying close attention to jobs. Key Takeaways The Consumer Price Index rose less than expected in September, leaving the Fed on track to cut interest rates. Fed officials had held their key interest rate high this year to subdue inflation, but the Fed has decided to cut interest rates to boost the job market. It would have taken a surprising surge of inflation in September to deter the F ...

Core Insights - Inflation continues to rise, with an annual rate of 3% reported for September 2025, indicating persistent inflationary pressures in the economy [1] - Consumer prices increased by 0.3% in September 2025, primarily due to a significant 4.1% rise in gasoline prices, suggesting volatility in energy costs is impacting overall inflation [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in response to weakening job growth, with only 22,000 jobs added in August, reflecting concerns about economic stability [3] Economic Indicators - The September 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) was delayed due to a federal government shutdown, highlighting operational challenges within the Bureau of Labor Statistics [1] - Forecasts indicated a month-over-month inflation increase of 0.4% and an annual increase of 3.1%, suggesting that inflationary trends are expected to persist [2] - A recent poll indicates that a majority of Americans are experiencing increased monthly costs between $100 and $749 compared to the previous year, underscoring the impact of inflation on consumer budgets [3] Political Context - Former President Donald Trump claimed he would "end inflation," yet inflation remains above pre-pandemic levels and the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, indicating a disconnect between political promises and economic realities [4] - Trump's tariffs have contributed to rising costs for imported goods, complicating the inflation landscape and suggesting that trade policies are influencing consumer prices [4] - Economic analysts express skepticism about achieving the Fed's inflation target in the near term, particularly with ongoing tariff impacts and potential deportations affecting various sectors [5]

NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks hit records on Friday after an update on inflation came in a bit less painful than feared. The S&P 500 rose 0.8% and topped its prior all-time high, which was set earlier this month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 472 points, or 1%, and the Nasdaq composite climbed 1.1%. Both also set records. The data on inflation is encouraging because it could mean less pain for lower- and middle-income households struggling with still-high increases in prices every month. Even mo ...

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) rose by +0.04% as it anticipates the US CPI report for September, supported by a rise in existing US home sales to a 7-month high [1] - Existing home sales in the US increased by +1.5% month-over-month to 4.06 million, aligning with market expectations [3] - The markets are pricing in a 99% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on October 28-29 [3] Group 2: Euro and Economic Conditions - The EUR/USD rose by +0.06% as the euro recovered from overnight losses, supported by an unexpected rise in the Eurozone October consumer confidence indicator to an 8-month high [4] - The Eurozone October consumer confidence indicator increased by +0.7 to -14.2, surpassing expectations of a decline to -15.0 [5] - Swaps are pricing in a 1% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut by the ECB at the October 30 policy meeting [5] Group 3: Yen and Japanese Monetary Policy - The USD/JPY rose by +0.37% as the yen fell to a 1.5-week low due to concerns that new Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi may advocate a less hawkish monetary policy [6] - Higher T-note yields negatively impacted the yen, contributing to its decline [6]

October 22, 2025 08:59 PM GMT Federal Reserve Monitor | North America Ahead of the October FOMC: Our Monetary Forecasts We participate in the NY Fed's Survey of Market Expectations, which collects expectations about monetary policy and the economy before each FOMC meeting. This note provides a snapshot of our responses to the survey. | M | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | Idea | | October 22, 2025 08:59 PM GMT | | | | Federal Reserve Monitor North America | Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC | | | | Michael T Gapen | | ...

US stocks slid on Wednesday as investors fielded the latest wave of earnings in a busy day highlighted by Tesla (TSLA) and IBM (IBM), while assets like crypto and gold (GC=F) continued to struggle in a broad unwind of recent momentum trades. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell 0.7%, or over 300 points, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) lost around 0.5%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led losses, down around 1%. Meanwhile, gold (GC=F) recovered some losses after booking its biggest one-day decl ...

Group 1: Market Performance - US stocks experienced a decline on Wednesday following a record-setting session for the Dow, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.3%, the S&P 500 losing 0.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite down approximately 0.8% [1] - Wall Street is looking to earnings reports to boost market sentiment after positive blue-chip results on Tuesday helped the Dow reach an all-time closing high [2] Group 2: Company Earnings - Tesla's quarterly earnings report is anticipated, marking the beginning of updates from the "Magnificent Seven" companies, which could impact the recent stock rally [2] - Netflix's stock dropped over 9% after the company reported earnings that missed expectations, partly due to a tax dispute in Brazil [3] - Mattel's shares also declined as the toymaker's North American sales fell short of expectations [3] Group 3: Commodity and Economic Outlook - Gold prices continued to decline after experiencing the largest one-day drop in over a decade [4] - The US federal shutdown has delayed official economic releases, with the September Consumer Price Index report expected to be a significant upcoming data point for the markets [5] - The inflation report will influence expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting, where a 25 basis point interest rate cut is widely anticipated [5]

LONDON (AP) — Inflation in the U.K. unexpectedly held steady in the year to September as higher prices at the pump were offset by lower food costs, official figures showed Wednesday in a development that has bolstered hopes of another interest rate reduction next month. The Office for National Statistics said consumer prices rose by 3.8% on an annual basis, unchanged from the levels seen in the previous two months. Most economists had expected the rate to rise to 4%, which would have been double the Bank ...