Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates next week, with current market-implied probabilities indicating a rate cut above 90% [5][7] - The federal funds rate is projected to range between 3.50% and 3.75% following the anticipated cut [5] - There is uncertainty among Fed members regarding the necessity of further rate cuts in 2026, influenced by upcoming leadership changes and economic conditions post-government shutdown [5][13] Market Reactions - Following the October Fed meeting, market expectations for a December rate cut significantly decreased from 100% to less than 30% [1][2] - The tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 index experienced a nearly 9% decline from peak to trough as the likelihood of a rate cut diminished [2] Economic Context - The lack of economic data during the government shutdown contributed to investor confusion regarding the Fed's future actions [2] - The Fed has concluded its pandemic-era policy of balance sheet reduction, which may affect long-term interest rates and the yield curve [13]

Core Viewpoint - The White House is considering Kevin Hasset as the front runner to replace Jay Powell as the chairman of the Federal Reserve, amid ongoing discussions about interest rate cuts and economic growth strategies [2][3][5]. Economic Outlook - Interest rates are currently up, but there is an 87% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in the upcoming December meeting [5]. - The government shutdown has negatively impacted economic data, but a rebound is expected in the first quarter of the following year [7][8]. - GDP growth has been strong, with growth rates in the fours for the last two quarters, indicating a potential for continued economic expansion [7]. Artificial Intelligence Impact - Concerns are emerging about job losses due to AI efficiencies, although new job creation is anticipated [9][10]. - AI is expected to drive a 4% productivity increase next year, allowing firms to meet demand without significantly increasing hiring [12][14]. - Real wage growth is reportedly high, reversing previous declines, and contributing to increased consumer spending power [14][40]. Federal Reserve Strategy - The Federal Reserve is advised to cautiously reduce interest rates to support economic growth, especially in light of productivity gains from AI [7][20]. - Historical parallels are drawn to the 1990s productivity boom, suggesting that the current AI-driven productivity surge could lead to similar economic growth without inflationary pressures [21][22]. Tariff and Trade Policy - The Supreme Court is expected to make a decision regarding President Trump's tariffs, which have generated significant revenue but also raised concerns about potential economic disruptions [26][34]. - Tariff revenues have reached approximately $280 billion annually, with expectations of further increases as domestic production rises [52][54]. Housing and Affordability Initiatives - The administration is focused on making housing more affordable and is working on new initiatives to address affordability challenges faced by families [39][43]. - The introduction of "Trump accounts" for newborns aims to instill financial literacy and provide a financial foundation for future generations [48][50]. Healthcare and Drug Pricing - The administration is advocating for policies to lower prescription drug prices and improve healthcare affordability, building on previous successes in reducing drug costs [60][62].

Market Overview - U.S. stock markets are showing cautious optimism as investors await crucial inflation data and a Federal Reserve interest rate decision next week [1] - Major U.S. market indexes have displayed varied movements, with the S&P 500 inching up 0.1% and reaching 6875 points, marking a 0.27% gain from the previous session [3] - The S&P 500 has climbed 2.31% over the past month and is up 12.89% compared to the same time last year, indicating a robust underlying trend [4] Premarket Trading and Futures - U.S. stock futures are largely inching higher, with S&P 500 futures up approximately 0.2% to 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 futures climbing around 0.4% [2] - Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are showing a more subdued performance, hovering between flat and a slight gain of 0.04% to 0.1% [2] Upcoming Economic Reports - The delayed release of the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index data for September is expected to provide insights into inflation, which is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve [5] - Other key economic reports include personal income and outlays, both anticipated to show a robust 0.4% increase month-over-month [5] Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is scheduled for December 10th, with nearly 90% odds of a quarter-point reduction [6] - Recent labor market data, including a decrease in Challenger job cuts to 71,300 and weekly initial jobless claims falling to roughly 191,000, are contributing to expectations of further rate reductions [6] Company Earnings Reports - Victoria's Secret Co (VSCO) and National Beverage (FIZZ) are among the companies scheduled to report quarterly results, which will provide insights into consumer spending and corporate health [7] Major Stock News - Meta Platforms (META) saw its stock jump 3.4% following reports of potential significant budget cuts for its metaverse division, which could impact its long-term investment profile [8] - Intel (INTC) shares dropped nearly 8% after reports indicated the company plans to retain its networking and communications unit [13] - Dollar General (DG) surged 14% after exceeding quarterly earnings estimates and raising its full-year forecast [13] - GE Vernova (GEV) shares advanced close to 5% after Barclays raised its price target due to robust demand for its gas and electrification equipment [13] - Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. (HPE) provided a sales outlook that fell short of analyst estimates, indicating potential headwinds for the enterprise technology sector [13] - SoFi Technologies (SOFI) announced plans to sell $1.5 billion of common shares, leading to a negative reaction in its stock [13] - Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. (WBD) and Netflix Inc. (NFLX) are in focus for any significant developments in the streaming and entertainment sector [13]

Good morning. When experienced employees leave–whether they get laid off, or jump ship for a better opportunity–they take their years, if not decades, of experience with them. Over time, the company loses that institutional knowledge.But what happens when a company excels at keeping its workers? Nintendo, the Japanese video game giant, is an example. Its Japanese employees spend an average of 15 years at the company, which boasts a yearly retention rate of 98%. That’s not just better than the layoff-prone v ...

US stocks moved higher on Friday as Wall Street looked ahead to a delayed reading on inflation that could still help shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) edged up 0.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained nearly 0.2% following a mixed Thursday session. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) is edging toward a fresh record high, after eking out three days of modest gains. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq (^IXIC) is eyeing its ninth ...

Take a Trial Today Get instant access to exclusive stock lists, expert market analysis and powerful tools with 2 months of IBD Digital for only $20! BREAKING: Ulta Beauty, Rubrik Lead Earnings Winners The S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq composite continued their winning ways Thursday, aided by economic data that underscored bets that an interest-rate cut is coming next week. Those bets will be in focus when Wall Street assesses key inflation data due Friday. Thursday's session left the S&P 500 up 0.1% and the ...

Core Viewpoint - The Russell 2000 reached a record high as traders showed optimism for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could stimulate growth [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Russell 2000 index increased by approximately 0.7%, marking its 7th record close this year [1] - The Russell 2000 has experienced a gain of over 1% in the past four days [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 32 points, or 0.1%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively [1]

Fed Chair & Policy - The market hasn't shown concern about Kevin Hasset potentially becoming the next Fed chair, despite some reports suggesting otherwise [2] - The next Fed chair will inherit a divided Federal Reserve, requiring time to establish authority [3][6][7] - The focus should be on long-term implications for the Fed's reform rather than short-term rate cuts [4][5] Interest Rate Cut Expectations - The market expects a rate cut, with expectations at 91% [8] - The rate cut is anticipated to be hawkish, potentially framed due to confusing and incomplete data [8][9] - The current Fed is seen as excessively data-dependent and backward-looking [9]

The U.S. stock market demonstrated a relatively calm demeanor in afternoon trading on Thursday, December 4, 2025, with major indexes hovering near their all-time highs. This stability comes after a period of volatility, as investors largely anticipate a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week. Economic data released today, including jobless claims, presented a mixed picture, further fueling speculation about the Fed's monetary policy direction.Major Market Indexes Show Modest MovementAs ...

The odds for a rate cut at next week's meeting now 90% according to the bond market. But our next guest says the Fed should not be cutting. Joining us here is former CEA chair Jason Ferman who is now a professor at Harvard Kennedy School was in the Obama administration.It's great to have you Jason. Welcome. >> Great to be with you.>> You do not think the Fed should be cutting. >> Yes. First of all, I don't disagree.They are going to cut next week. >> But they have a dual mandate. They are about onetenth of ...