Silver climbed to a fresh record recently. iShares Silver Trust (SLV) has gained 97.3% so far this year (as of Dec. 2, 2025), outperforming SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) , which has advanced about 58%. The GLD ETF has advanced 5% over the past month, while SLV has surged 21.4% during the same timeframe.  Rising speculative positions, thanks to expectations of persistent supply tightness and the prospect of lower U.S. borrowing costs, led to the rally in silver prices. Below, we highlight a few reasons that can driv ...

Economic Overview - The Australian economy is currently experiencing strong growth [1] - Interest rate cuts may have concluded after only three adjustments [1]

Market Overview - The current market is facing challenges, but there is optimism due to strong earnings and potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which could support an accelerating economy [2][3]. Company Analysis: Amazon - Amazon is highlighted as a strong pick, particularly due to its impressive performance during the Black Friday and Cyber Monday shopping period, with significant conversion rates attributed to its AI assistant, Rufus [4][5]. - The integration of AI is enhancing Amazon's advertising and logistics efficiency, positioning it for multi-sector growth, especially with new grocery expansion initiatives [6][7]. - In Q2, Amazon's revenue increased by 13%, with advertising revenue growing by 23%, showcasing the effectiveness of AI in boosting conversion rates [7][8]. Company Analysis: Southwest Airlines - Southwest Airlines has shown a 16% increase in the last month and a 5.25% year-to-date increase, indicating positive price momentum [16]. - The company is shifting its strategy from budget to mainstream, introducing seat assignments and long-haul routes, which may lead to higher capital expenditures [19]. - A cash-secured put option strategy is proposed, with a strike price of $35, offering a premium of approximately $2 per share, which represents a compelling income opportunity [20]. Company Analysis: Citigroup - Citigroup is undergoing a transformation under CEO Jane Fraser, focusing on a wealth-centric model and integrating its US retail deposits into wealth management [30][31]. - The company has a 2.34% annual dividend yield with a 32% payout ratio, indicating room for growth while maintaining strong free cash flow [34]. - Citigroup's strategic shift towards digital assets and tokenization aligns with broader modernization efforts, potentially enhancing profitability [32][33].

Core Viewpoint - Valley National Bancorp (VLY) shares have reached a 52-week high of $11.65, closing at $11.48, driven by optimism over potential interest rate cuts before the end of 2025. The stock has gained 31.1% over the past six months, outperforming the industry and S&P 500 Index [1][8]. Price Performance - VLY's stock performance has surpassed peers such as Fulton Financial Corporation (FULT) and Webster Financial Corporation (WBS), with FULT gaining 5.8% and WBS 16.2% in the same timeframe [2]. Factors Supporting VLY's Performance - **Robust Organic Growth**: VLY's net revenues have shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.7% from 2019 to 2024, supported by rising loan balances [5]. - **Fee Income Initiatives**: The company is enhancing fee income through investments in treasury solutions, foreign exchange, and syndication platforms, which are expected to support revenue growth [6]. - **Revenue Growth Expectations**: The Zacks Consensus Estimate for VLY's revenues in 2025 and 2026 is $2.01 billion and $2.21 billion, indicating year-over-year growth rates of 8.3% and 9.6% respectively [9]. - **Inorganic Growth**: VLY has a solid balance sheet and has made strategic acquisitions, including Bank Leumi Le-Israel B.M.'s U.S. banking arm in 2022, which are expected to diversify revenues [10][11]. - **Improving Margins**: Despite a decline in net interest margin (NIM) in 2023 and 2024, VLY anticipates NIM improvement due to stabilizing deposit costs and aims for a target of over 3.1% NIM in Q4 2025 [11][12]. - **Capital Distributions**: VLY has maintained a quarterly dividend of 11 cents per share since 2018 and has a share repurchase program with authorization for up to 25 million shares [12][13]. Challenges Facing VLY's Growth - **Elevated Expense Base**: The company's expenses have increased at a CAGR of 11.9% over the past five years, primarily due to higher salaries and occupancy costs, which are expected to remain high as VLY continues to expand [14]. - **Loan Portfolio Risks**: A significant portion of VLY's loan portfolio is exposed to commercial real estate (CRE) and residential mortgage loans, with 58.2% and 11.8% of total loans respectively. The company has been selective in new CRE loan originations to manage risks [16][18]. Earnings Growth Prospects - Analysts are optimistic about VLY's earnings growth, with the 2025 earnings estimate of 96 cents indicating a year-over-year growth of 54.8%, and the 2026 estimate of $1.23 suggesting a rise of 28.1% [20].

(Bloomberg) — After cutting interest rates by more than a percentage point, Federal Reserve officials are now wondering where to stop – and finding there’s more disagreement than ever. In the past year or so, prescriptions for where rates should end up have diverged by the most since at least 2012, when US central bankers started publishing their estimates. That’s feeding into an unusually public split over whether to deliver another cut next week, and what comes after that. Most Read from Bloomberg Fed ...

Trump’s Comments Fuel Uncertainty Over Fed Leadership President Trump recently made headlines by saying he “knows who he is going to pick” as the next Federal Reserve chair — though he declined to name the individual publicly. At the same time, he reiterated harsh criticisms of current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, complaining that the Fed has been too slow to cut interest rates. While Powell’s term doesn’t end until May 2026, Trump’s remarks — and the rapidly rising market odds that Kevin Hassett will be the ...

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, with investors looking ahead to the rate path in 2026 [1][13] - If the inflation picture improves, further rate cuts could lead to a bullish stock market, with projections for the S&P 500 to reach between 7,000 and 8,000 by the end of next year [14][15] Federal Reserve Leadership - Kevin Hassett is considered a strong candidate to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, with expectations that he would focus on economic growth rather than aggressive rate hikes [3][4][5] - Hassett's approach is anticipated to prioritize price stability and full employment, moving away from the current Fed's focus on controlling inflation through rate increases [5][12] Consumer Behavior - Recent data indicates that consumers are actively shopping, as evidenced by the popularity of retail apps like Walmart and Best Buy during the holiday season [17][18] - The consumer sentiment appears to be optimistic about the economy's growth potential in 2026, with expectations of a 3 to 4% growth rate and improved job market conditions [20][21] Market Dynamics - The current economic environment is characterized by a booming economy with GDP growth rates around 3.9%, which is significantly higher than the previous 1-2% range [15] - The Fed's actions in raising rates have contributed to an affordability crisis for consumers, impacting their ability to manage debt and loans [12]

The major U.S. index futures are currently pointing to a lower open on Monday, with stocks likely to give back ground after moving sharply higher last week. Traders may look to cash in on last week's rally, which saw the major averages stage a significant recovery from the sharp pullback seen earlier in November.The major averages have closed higher for five consecutive sessions, clawing their way back toward their record highs.Stocks have recently benefitted from renewed optimism about the outlook for int ...

Core Insights - The real estate sector has faced challenges due to high interest rates and a shift towards remote work, resulting in a modest 6% return over the past three years compared to a 66% increase in the S&P 500 [2][4] Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) - REITs provide instant diversification and options for investors, including general and sector-specific investments, and are required to return 90% of earnings as dividends, making them attractive for income seekers [3][4] - The Global X Data Center and Digital Infrastructure ETF (DTCR) is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for data centers, with a projected market growth from $241 billion in 2024 to $456 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 11.8% [5][6] - The DTCR ETF has $605.8 million in assets under management and has delivered a 23.4% return in 2025 [6][9] - The Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF (VNQ) tracks a broad index of real estate stocks and has $64 billion in assets, providing a 3.8% return in 2025 with a lower expense ratio of 0.13% [10][13] - The SPDR Dow Jones Global Real Estate ETF (RWO) offers diversification with 220 holdings and a year-to-date return of 8.7%, while also providing a 3.6% dividend yield [14][18]

Core Insights - Gold has experienced significant growth in 2025, with a year-to-date gain of over 58%, outperforming the S&P 500, which is up about 14%, and Bitcoin, which has lost around 6% [2] - Silver has outperformed gold with a 78% year-to-date gain, but gold is expected to maintain its rally into 2026 due to factors including President Trump's return to power and market reactions to his policies [3] - Increased market volatility, particularly during Trump's second administration, has led to a flight to safety among investors, reallocating capital to gold and other precious metals [3][4] Market Volatility - Volatility, as measured by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), increased by 85% from Inauguration Day to March 10 due to tariff rumors, followed by a 20% pullback by the end of March [4] - The VIX reached a five-year high during the market's tariff tantrum in April, jumping 135% in the first week [4] - By the end of September, the VIX had settled down by 70%, but has since increased by 35%, raising concerns about potential volatility through the end of the year [5] Gold Price Drivers - Gold's surge in 2025 is attributed to geopolitical tensions, market volatility, and macroeconomic policy shifts under Trump's administration [6] - Ongoing legal and political uncertainties regarding Trump's tariff authority could further influence volatility and gold prices [6] - A weakening U.S. dollar and potential interest rate cuts in 2026 may support gold's bullish momentum into the next year [6] Legal Considerations - The U.S. Supreme Court is reviewing Trump's authority to impose tariffs without Congressional approval, which could significantly impact gold's trajectory [7] - A ruling in favor of Trump would allow tariffs to remain, potentially eroding the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar and driving gold prices higher [7]