Group 1 - U.S. households' current financial situations deteriorated notably in November, while their outlook for the next year slightly worsened [1] - Job market expectations improved, with a decrease in the anticipated unemployment rate and a lower probability of job loss over the next year [1] - Households reduced the likelihood of voluntarily leaving their jobs [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to the 3.50%-3.75% range to support a weakening job market [2] - There is considerable opposition among policymakers regarding the rate cut due to persistent inflation pressures above the Fed's 2% target [3] Group 3 - Inflation expectations for the next year remained steady at 3.2%, with three- and five-year projections unchanged at 3% [4] - Home price expectations held steady at a 3% increase, while medical cost expectations surged by 10.1%, the highest since January 2014 [5] - Future earnings and income growth remained positive compared to the previous month [5]

President Trump said last Tuesday that he will announce his selection for the new Fed Chair in early 2026. Bloomberg reported last week that National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is seen as the likely choice to succeed Powell. The Fed’s independence would come into question, as Hassett supports President Trump’s approach to cutting interest rates at the Fed.Today’s Chinese trade report was mixed as China’s Nov exports rose +5.9% y/y, stronger than expectations of +4.0% y/y. However, Nov imports r ...

Subscribe to the Daily newsletter.Fast Company's trending stories delivered to you every day Privacy Policy | The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation changed little in September, likely easing the way to a widely expected interest rate cut by the central bank next week. Prices rose 0.3% in September from August, the Commerce Department said Friday, in a report that was delayed five weeks by the government shutdown. It matched the increase recorded during the previous month. Excluding the volati ...

Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% due to concerns over the jobs market and inflation [1] - The core PCE price index rose +0.2% month-over-month and +2.8% year-over-year in September, slightly below expectations [3] - U.S. personal spending increased by +0.3% month-over-month, while personal income grew by +0.4% month-over-month, exceeding expectations [3] - The German October Industrial Production rose +1.8% month-over-month, significantly above expectations of +0.2% [10] Market Performance - Wall Street's major equity averages ended positively, with Ulta Beauty surging over +12% after strong Q3 results and raised guidance [4] - Micron Technology and GlobalFoundries saw gains of over +4% and +3% respectively, while Warner Bros. Discovery climbed more than +6% following Netflix's acquisition announcement [4] - In pre-market trading, Tesla fell over -1% after a downgrade, while Confluent soared more than +28% amid acquisition talks [16] Corporate Earnings - Several prominent companies, including Broadcom, Oracle, and Adobe, are set to release quarterly results this week [7] - Carvana is expected to be added to the S&P 500 index on December 22nd, leading to an over +8% rise in pre-market trading [17] International Developments - China's November Trade Balance stood at $111.68 billion, exceeding expectations of $105 billion, with exports rising +5.9% year-over-year [12] - Japan's economy contracted more than initially estimated in Q3, with a revised annualized GDP of -2.3% quarter-over-quarter [14]

Market Overview - U.S. equity markets are cautiously trending higher as investors prepare for the Federal Reserve's final monetary policy meeting of the year, with expectations for an interest rate cut [1][6] - Major U.S. indexes recorded solid gains last week, with the S&P 500 closing up between 0.3% and 0.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite climbing 0.9% to 0.91% [4][5] Premarket Activity - U.S. stock futures indicate a steady to slightly positive trend, with S&P 500 E-mini futures up approximately 0.1% to 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rising by about 0.18% to 0.27% [2] - Significant individual stock movements include Top Wealth Group Holding Limited surging over 125%, Paranovus Entertainment Technology Ltd. up more than 103%, and Cemtrex, Inc. gaining over 81% [3] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases this week include the delayed October Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report on December 9, and weekly jobless claims along with September trade data on December 11 [8] - The New York Fed's consumer inflation expectations survey is also scheduled for release on December 8 [8] Corporate Announcements - Earnings season is winding down, with notable companies such as Oracle and Adobe set to report quarterly results this week, which could lead to significant stock movements [10] - Air Products and Yara International are in discussions for low-emission ammonia projects, with final investment decisions expected by mid-2026 [11] - Safran launched a new digital ethics reporting platform aimed at enhancing its ethics alert system [11] - German warship maker TKMS reported a substantial increase in financial figures for fiscal year 2024/2025, with order intake six times higher than the previous year [11]

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 is close to its all-time high, with traders awaiting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, expected to be a cut of 0.25% at the upcoming FOMC meeting [1][2][3] Market Sentiment - Asian markets showed positive movement, while European markets remained flat; the VIX index has decreased by 10.33% over the past five sessions, indicating reduced volatility [2] - The market is expected to react significantly to Chair Powell's statements post-FOMC meeting, particularly regarding the labor market and inflation concerns [3][4] Federal Reserve Insights - The anticipated interest rate cut would mark the sixth reduction since September 2024, with a current expectation of rates dropping to 3.5% [2][4] - There is an expectation of dissent among Fed officials during the meeting, which could indicate differing views on monetary policy [4] Consumer Confidence - Declining consumer confidence is influencing the Fed's decision-making, with consumers expressing concerns over economic conditions and labor market health [4] - Recent reports suggest that U.S. consumers are showing signs of reduced resilience, with expectations for a weak Q4 based on income and spending data [5] Market Snapshot - S&P 500 futures were flat, closing the last session up by 0.19%; other global indices showed mixed results, with Japan's Nikkei 225 up by 0.18% and China's CSI 300 up by 0.81% [5][6]

U.S. stock futures were fluctuating on Monday after Friday’s advance. Futures of major benchmark indices were mixed.President Donald Trump's administration plans to unveil a long-awaited $12 billion financial rescue package on Monday aimed at U.S. farmers struggling under the combined weight of low market prices and the impact of tariff policies.Investors await a crucial decision from the Federal Reserve later this week, along with the earnings report of Oracle Corp. (NYSE:ORCL) , Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO ...

The biggest story for markets this week is likely to be the Federal Open Market Committee's monetary policy decision on Wednesday. Wall Street is counting on a quarter-point rate cut–but Chair Jerome Powell is expected to strike a hawkish tone in his post-decision press conference, meaning investors' focus could quickly turn to what the Fed does in January and beyond. Futures tracking the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 6 points, effectively trading flat. S&P 500 futures climbed 0.1%, with the benchmar ...

Asian stocks turned in a mixed performance on Monday as investors parsed Chinese trade data, navigated deteriorating China-Japan relations and looked ahead to the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision due on Wednesday. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday but the path for 2026 looks more uncertain.The dollar softened in Asian trade on rate cut expectations and gold traded firm above $4,200 per ounce while oil hovered at two-week highs. China's Shanghai Composite index ...

Summary of Key Points from the December FOMC Preview Industry Overview - The report focuses on the U.S. economic outlook and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for December, which is expected to address interest rate adjustments. Core Insights and Arguments - **Interest Rate Cut Expectations**: The FOMC is anticipated to implement a third consecutive 25 basis point interest rate cut, bringing the target range to 3.5-3.75% [2][5] - **Labor Market Concerns**: Job growth is insufficient to match labor supply growth, with an estimated underlying trend monthly job growth of 40,000, below the breakeven rate of 70,000. The unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%, indicating a softening labor market [2][6][10] - **Dovish vs. Hawkish Sentiment**: While many investors expect a hawkish tone from the FOMC, there is uncertainty regarding future cuts, especially if the labor market continues to weaken [2][18][39] - **Economic Projections**: The median GDP growth forecast is expected to rise to 2% for both 2025 and 2026, while core PCE inflation is projected to decline to 3% for 2025 and 2.5% for 2026 [25][26] - **Future Rate Cuts**: The FOMC is likely to signal that the bar for further cuts has been raised, with expectations of one additional cut in 2026 to 3.375% and another in 2027 to 3.125% [28][31] Additional Important Insights - **Inflation Trends**: Core PCE inflation, net of tariff effects, is currently estimated at 2.3% and is expected to reach 2% by the first half of 2026 [13][14][17] - **Impact of AI on Employment**: Companies are increasingly utilizing AI to reduce labor costs, which may lead to restrained hiring or increased layoffs, further complicating the labor market outlook [35][36] - **Economic Uncertainty**: The report highlights significant uncertainty regarding whether improved GDP growth will stabilize the labor market, given the current negative job growth outside of healthcare [35][36] Conclusion - The upcoming FOMC meeting is poised to be contentious, with a mix of hawkish and dovish sentiments among participants. The labor market's performance and inflation trends will be critical in shaping future monetary policy decisions.