I think we're seeing a US economy that is deteriorating. I think of it as different sickly canaries that are appearing in the coal mine. They're not dead yet necessarily, but they're showing signs of real illness and we're likely to see more, I think, as the year progresses.First of all, consumer confidence has taken a hit. What we're seeing also is just signs of reduced consumption. We're seeing a pickup in continuing jobless claims.Uh we're at the highest level since November of 2021. So, all this says to ...

A lot of numbers to go through here. 147,000 jobs created, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is above the 106 estimate that we got from Bloomberg Economics and the economists. We surveyed private payrolls up 74,000.Let's take a look here at the unemployment rate. It falls to 4.1%. There was some thought it was going to go maybe as high as four four.The forecast was four for three. So much better number than anticipated. We also see and I'm going to jump here to jobless claims, a big drop in ...

U.S. equities gained at midday as the government reported fewer initial jobless claims than had been expected. https://t.co/lFRpjrLv8P ...

Economic Indicators - Preliminary durable goods orders surged by 164% [2] - Trade balance deficit reached minus 966 billion [1] - Capital good orders non-defense xir increased by 17% [3] - Shipments rose by 05% [4] - Initial jobless claims decreased to 236000, the lowest since mid-year [7] - Continuing claims remained over 1974 million for five consecutive weeks [7][8] GDP and Consumption - First quarter GDP revised to minus 05%, the weakest since Q1 2022 [4][5] - Consumption dropped to 05% from 12% [6] Inflation - Price index increased to 38%, one-tenth higher than 37% [6] - PCE core moved to 35%, one-tenth higher than 34% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading activities [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party content intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information should not be interpreted as recommendations or advice for any financial actions [1]. - The content is not tailored to individual financial situations or needs, highlighting the necessity for users to apply their own discretion [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - Users are encouraged to perform their own research and understand the risks involved before investing in any financial instruments [1].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a base case median expectation of two 25 basis point rate cuts this year, with a possibility of one rate cut being signaled [7]. Core Insights - The report outlines three primary reasons for a dovish stance from Chair Powell: three months of softer core inflation, rising continuing jobless claims, and softer housing data [6][9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Inflation Data - Core PCE inflation is projected to register an annualized rate of 1.6% over March, April, and May, indicating a slowdown from stronger readings earlier in the year [9]. - The decline in shelter inflation is expected to continue due to weak housing activity and a decrease in Case-Shiller house prices [9]. Labor Market - Continuing jobless claims have risen to 1,956,000, the highest level since 2021, while initial jobless claims remain lower, suggesting weak hiring conditions [9]. - The labor market is perceived as "resilient" with 139,000 new jobs added and an unemployment rate of 4.2% in May, but recent data adds caution to Powell's outlook [9]. Housing Market - The housing sector is contracting, with prices, permits, and starts for single-family homes all declining. The NAHB index fell to 32, the lowest since 2022, particularly weak in the South [9]. - Current mortgage rates are contributing to the contraction in the housing market, indicating that interest rates remain restrictive and may need to be reduced [9].

Jobless claims and housing uh starts data going to hit the wires right now in about two seconds. Rick Santelli standing by at this in CM in Chicago. Hey Rick.Hi. Good morning Joe. Yes.Housing starts for the month of May expected 1,350,000 seasonally adjusted annualized units. Comes in light, extremely light. 1,256,000.That is definitely well below what we are expecting. And that would be the lightest going back well quite a ways. We're going back to wow 1256. We're going all the way back to May of 2020. May ...

Economic Indicators - Initial Jobless Claims were reported at 228K, slightly below the estimated 230K, marking a decrease of 13K from the previous week's revised figure of 241K, indicating stability in the labor market [2] - Continuing Claims reached 1.879 million, consistent with trends over the past six months, although the previous week reported 1.916 million, the first print above 1.9 million since November 2021 [3][4] - Q1 U.S. Productivity showed a negative growth of -0.8%, which was 10 basis points lower than expected, following a +1.5% in Q4 2024, marking the first negative print since Q2 2022 [5] - Unit Labor Costs increased by 5.7%, exceeding the expected 5.1%, the highest level since Q3 2020, indicating potential economic challenges [6] Company Earnings - Shopify (SHOP) reported Q1 earnings of 25 cents per share, missing consensus by a penny, while revenues of $2.36 billion exceeded expectations by 1.32%, but shares fell by 7% [7] - ConocoPhillips (COP) surpassed earnings estimates with $2.09 per share, exceeding consensus by 3 cents, and reported revenues of $17.1 billion, outperforming by 3.37% compared to the previous year [8] - Crocs (CROX) reported earnings of $3.00 per share, beating expectations by 19.5%, and revenues of $937.3 million, slightly below year-ago levels, with shares up 4.7% in pre-market trading [9]

Market Overview - Pre-market futures indicate a positive market sentiment with the Dow up 300 points, S&P 500 up 50 points, Nasdaq up 250 points, and Russell 2000 up 25 points, despite less favorable economic reports [1] Employment Data - Initial Jobless Claims were reported at 228K, slightly below the estimated 230K, marking a decrease of 13K from the previous week's revised figure of 241K, indicating stability in the labor market [2] - Continuing Claims reached 1.879 million, consistent with trends over the past six months, although the previous week reported 1.916 million, the first print above 1.9 million since November 2021 [3][4] Productivity and Labor Costs - Q1 U.S. Productivity showed a negative growth of -0.8%, which is 10 basis points lower than expectations, following a +1.5% growth in Q4 2024, marking the first negative print since Q2 2022 [5] - Unit Labor Costs increased by 5.7%, exceeding the expected 5.1%, the highest level since Q3 2020, indicating potential challenges for economic growth [6] Company Earnings Reports - Shopify (SHOP) reported Q1 earnings of $0.25 per share, missing consensus by a penny, while revenues of $2.36 billion exceeded expectations by 1.32%, but shares fell by 7% [7] - ConocoPhillips (COP) surpassed earnings estimates with $2.09 per share and revenues of $17.1 billion, outperforming the previous year's $14.48 billion, leading to a 1.6% increase in shares [8] - Crocs (CROX) reported earnings of $3.00 per share, exceeding expectations by 19.5%, with revenues of $937.3 million slightly below year-ago levels, resulting in a 4.7% increase in shares [9]

Economic Overview - Market indexes are currently in the red, with the Dow down 160 points, S&P 500 down 23 points, and Nasdaq down 120 points, indicating a negative market sentiment [1] - Fed Chair Powell's comments on the economy remain optimistic, but uncertainties regarding tariff policy persist [2] Labor Market Insights - Initial Jobless Claims for last week were reported at 223K, slightly up from the previous week's revised 221K, indicating a healthy labor market [3][4] - Continuing Claims increased to 1.892 million from a revised 1.859 million, remaining within a stable range [5] Regional Economic Indicators - The Philly Fed index for March was reported at 12.5, exceeding analysts' expectations of 10.0, suggesting positive economic momentum [6] Company Performance - Darden Restaurants reported Q3 earnings of $2.80 per share, missing expectations by a penny but showing an increase from $2.62 per share year-over-year [7] - Revenues of $3.16 billion fell short of the Zacks consensus of $3.21 billion, although this is an increase from $2.97 billion a year ago [7] - Despite the earnings miss, Darden's shares rose by 6% in pre-market trading due to growth prospects from the acquisition of the Chuy's franchise [8]