Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is undergoing a transformation from a "stock economy" to a "new model," with a positive profit growth expected in Q1 2025, marking the end of a four-year downward cycle [1] Group 1: Market Transition - The transition is characterized by a recovery in profit growth driven by low inventory levels across industries triggering a replenishment cycle [1] - Companies are entering this new phase with a leaner operational structure, which is expected to enhance profitability [1] - The recovery in the second-hand housing market is contributing to the restoration of the real estate chain [1] Group 2: Financial Metrics - The return on equity (ROE) has significantly increased from its previous low levels, indicating improved financial health for companies in the market [1]

证券研究报告 | 策略报告 gszqdatemark 2025 05 19 年 月 日 投资策略专题 【行业联合推荐】重回价值投资 A 股市场定价逻辑正经历从短期估值博弈向长期价值投资的系统性切换。 伴随中长期资金占比提升与短期投机资金退潮，市场波动率显著收敛，企 业盈利质量（ROE）对股价的驱动作用持续强化。当前，资金面阶段性收 紧与公募新规的长周期考核要求，进一步抑制题材炒作惯性，引导资金流 向盈利稳定、估值合理的价值型资产。市场逐步回归基本面定价，具备可 持续竞争优势的企业将赢得长期资本青睐。 一、为什么当下重提价值投资？ A 股波动缩小、资金面缩紧、及公募新规的推出下，更多资金将为价值投 票。过往 A 股波动大，PE 变化是主导回报率的核心因素，但近年来 A 股 波动性持续缩小，市场逐渐转向 ROE 主导，价值相关的指数，在收益率表 现上明显占优。近来公募新规的推出，也倒逼资金从短期博弈重回长期价 值投资，未来更多资金将为价值投票。 二、价值投资定义-主要回报率来源于企业 ROE 和股东回报的投资策略 价值投资主要依靠企业盈利持续增长（ROE）或股东回报获取投资收益。 根据股市回报率公式，回报率来源可 ...

Summary of XCMG Construction Machinery (000425 CH) Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: XCMG Construction Machinery - **Ticker**: 000425 CH - **Sector**: Machinery - **Market Cap**: CNY 106,582 million (USD 14,797 million) [12] Key Industry Insights - **Domestic Sales Recovery**: Domestic excavator sales increased by 16% year-on-year in April, driven by replacement demand, while exports rose by 19% year-on-year, contributing to an overall industry growth of 21.4% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025 [2][24]. - **Emerging Markets Focus**: XCMG is expected to see higher growth in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa due to increased efforts in these regions amid trade tensions, despite only 1% of last year's revenue coming from North America [2][24]. Financial Performance - **1Q25 Results**: XCMG reported a revenue growth of 11% and a net profit growth of 26% year-on-year, primarily due to strong sales in road machinery and earth-moving machinery [25]. - **Revenue Forecast Adjustments**: The revenue forecast for 2025 has been increased by 1%, while the 2026 estimate has been reduced by 1%. Net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been cut by 6.4% and 4.6%, respectively [3][25]. Valuation and Price Target - **Target Price Increase**: The target price has been raised to RMB 10.20 from RMB 8.62, reflecting a 13% upside potential based on a new price-to-book (PB) multiple of 1.7x [4][32]. - **Valuation Comparison**: XCMG trades at a PB of 1.6x for 2025 estimates, compared to local peer Sany at 2.2x, indicating a more attractive valuation for XCMG given its better return on equity (ROE) outlook [33]. Segment Performance - **Crane and Earth Moving Machinery**: Revenue forecasts for cranes have been raised by 21% for 2025-26, while earth-moving machinery forecasts have been increased by 5-8% due to industry upcycle and emerging market sales efforts [26]. - **Concrete Machinery Decline**: Revenue forecasts for concrete machinery have been cut by 12-15% due to overestimated export momentum and lower-than-expected domestic demand [26]. Risks and Challenges - **Profitability Concerns**: The construction machinery sector faces risks from raw material price hikes, which could pressure margins if costs cannot be passed on to customers [41]. - **Demand Slowdown**: Potential slowdown in machinery demand due to tighter project financing or a significant deceleration in property construction could negatively impact sales [41]. - **Working Capital Management**: Economic slowdowns or unfavorable monetary conditions could lead to higher receivables, affecting working capital management [41]. Conclusion - XCMG is positioned for growth in domestic and international markets, particularly in mining and earth-moving machinery. The company’s focus on emerging markets and adjustments in revenue forecasts reflect a positive outlook, despite potential risks from market conditions and competition. The maintained "Buy" rating and increased target price suggest confidence in the company's future performance and market share potential in the machinery sector [4][12][32].

Core Viewpoint - The 2024 annual report season for A-share listed companies reveals a decline in overall profitability, with total revenue reaching 71.92 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.9% year-on-year, and net profit down by 2.3% to 5.21 trillion yuan. The proportion of profitable companies has dropped to 75%, down from previous years [1][4]. Group 1: ROE Analysis - The overall ROE for A-shares has decreased from 5.6% in 2023 to 4.3% in 2024, indicating a general decline in profitability across the market [12]. - The household appliance sector leads with an ROE of 8.2%, supported by a 0.75 asset turnover ratio and a 6.1% net profit margin, exemplifying a high-frequency turnover and reasonable profit model [12]. - The coal industry saw its ROE halved from 12.0% to 7.3%, primarily due to a drop in net profit margin from 10.1% to 6.7% as resource dividends faded [13]. Group 2: Growth Potential - The electronics industry experienced the highest revenue growth rate at 17.4%, driven by surging demand for AI computing power and semiconductor needs [15]. - Twelve industries reported positive revenue growth, with the social services sector at 7.3% and the automotive sector at 6.7%, reflecting resilience in consumer spending recovery [15]. - The electronics sector also led in net profit growth at 35.8%, highlighting its strong performance amidst overall market challenges [16]. Group 3: Cash Flow Insights - The top five industries by operating cash flow are coal, transportation, public utilities, steel, and non-ferrous metals, all benefiting from stable demand and short customer payment cycles [19]. - Only 44% of companies maintain a healthy cash flow ratio, indicating that 56% face potential financial strain, with 40% generating insufficient cash flow to match net profits [22]. - The overall market is shifting towards a phase of stable development, focusing on optimizing cash flow structures and reducing reliance on external financing [24]. Group 4: Investment Trends - Industries such as coal and food and beverage are engaging in counter-cyclical investments, with coal transitioning towards solar and hydrogen energy, while food and beverage sectors are expanding into health and international markets [25]. - The comprehensive industry is attempting to capture structural opportunities through diversified investments, although caution is advised regarding potential inefficiencies [25]. - Despite high growth potential, companies remain cautious about future uncertainties, balancing investment activities with operational cash flow [26].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianfeng Securities is "Neutral" (maintained) [1][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that the negative profit is mainly influenced by heavy capital business, while the quarterly ROE has improved sequentially [1][5]. - The total operating revenue for the year was 2.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 21.9%, with a quarterly revenue of 1.3 billion RMB, showing a sequential increase of 7.3 billion RMB [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -30 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 109.7%, with a quarterly profit of 510 million RMB, reflecting a sequential increase of 7.2 million RMB and a year-on-year increase of 6.2 million RMB [5]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's financial leverage ratio at the end of the reporting period was 3.63 times, a decrease of 0.21 times year-on-year, remaining stable sequentially [5]. - The asset turnover rate was 3.1%, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the quarterly asset turnover rate was 1.6%, up 0.8 percentage points sequentially [5]. - The net profit margin for the reporting period was -1.1%, a decrease of 10.2 percentage points year-on-year, with a quarterly net profit margin of 37.9%, up 73% sequentially [5]. Business Segment Performance - The net income from heavy capital business was 620 million RMB, with a quarterly income of 740 million RMB, showing a sequential increase of 590 million RMB [5]. - The self-operated business revenue totaled 2.34 billion RMB, with a quarterly revenue of 1.12 billion RMB, reflecting a sequential increase of 530 million RMB [5]. - Brokerage business revenue was 820 million RMB for the quarter, showing a significant sequential increase of 98% and a year-on-year increase of 40.6% [5]. Regulatory Indicators - The risk coverage ratio was 122.7%, an increase of 6.5 percentage points from the previous period, with a risk capital reserve of 12.5 billion RMB [5]. - The net stable funding ratio was 103.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous period [5]. - The capital leverage ratio was 16.6%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous period [5].

春江水暖：盈利改善显韧性，科技突 围启新章——A股2025年一季报解析 长江证券研究所策略研究小组 2025-05-07 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 research.95579.com 2 01 利润增速：盈利增速小幅回升，大金融方向贡献较小 目 录 02 ROE：延续下滑，2025Q1TMT行业持续改善 03 哪些行业一季报超预期？ 05 分析师 戴清 SAC执业证书编号：S0490524010002 SFC执业证书编号：BTR264 分析师及联系人 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • %% %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 3 核心结论 ➢ A股一季度营收波动下滑，盈利有所回升。2025年一季度全A营收同比-2.93%，盈利同比-4.87%，全A非金融两油营收同比-0.38% ，盈利同比+6.02%，金融行业盈利拖累指数，全A非金融两油盈利TTM同比增速在连续四个季度小幅回升后边际回落，2025Q1归 母净利润TTM同比增速降幅收敛；从历史上一季度数据来看，2025Q1全A盈利单季环比为+72.8%，全A非金融两油盈利单季度环比 为+28 ...

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 银行 2025 年 05 月 06 日 建设银行 (00939) —— ROE 稳居大行第一，夯实资本为做大做强更进一步 报告原因：首次覆盖 买入（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 05 月 02 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 6.38 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8231.04 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 7.02/5.14 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 15,950.70 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 240,417.32 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0774 | 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 郑庆明 A0230519090001 zhengqm@swsresearch.com 林颖颖 A0230522070004 linyy@swsresearch.com 冯思远 A0230522090005 fengsy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -9% 41% 91% HSCEI 建设银行 李禹昊 A0230123070008 liyh2@sws ...

2025 年一季报和 2024 年报有哪些看点？20250505 摘要 • 2025 年一季度全 A 股营收和净利润同比增速显著改善，非金融、石油石 化板块营收率先转正，全 A 股整体净利润同比增速为 3.56%，较 2024 年 回升 5.91 个百分点，显示市场预期与上市公司业绩同步向好。 • 创业板成为 A 股业绩增长的重要驱动力，营收和归母净利润增速均领先于 主板和科创板。同时，中小盘股（如中证 1,000、中证 2000）受益于低 基数，业绩弹性较大，一季度业绩增速反超沪深 300。 • 全 A 及全 A 非金融的 ROE 虽仍下行，但幅度趋缓。杜邦拆解显示，销售 净利率小幅回升是支撑，资产周转率下降是主要拖累。全 A 非金融经营现 金流量净额占营收比例持续提升，自由现金流占营收比例创 2008 年以来 新高，表明企业现金流状况显著改善。 • TMT 行业和中游材料是全 A 级别净利润增长的重要贡献者，中游材料以 33.85%的归母净利润同比增速排名第一，TMT 行业以 19%的增速紧随其 后。中游材料和中游制造的边际改善最为显著。 • 2025 年一季度，计算机、农林牧渔、钢铁、建筑材料和有色金属 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a significant recovery in the performance of the A-share market in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.5% for all A-shares and 4.2% for non-financial A-shares, a notable improvement from the declines of -15.1% and -47.2% in Q4 2024 respectively [1][9][12] - The report highlights that the recovery in net profit is primarily driven by an increase in gross profit margin and a decrease in expense ratios, despite a slight decline in revenue growth of -0.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025 compared to a growth of 1.3% in Q4 2024 [10][12] - The report notes that the return on equity (ROE) for all A-shares fell to 7.8% in Q1 2025, influenced by a continuous decline in asset turnover, while the net profit margin showed a slight recovery [2][15][16] Group 2 - The report indicates that growth stocks have outperformed value stocks in terms of profit growth, with the ChiNext index showing a year-on-year net profit increase of 19.9% in Q1 2025, contrasting with a decline of -0.2% for the Shanghai 50 index [3][19] - It is observed that the profit growth disparity between large-cap and small-cap stocks has narrowed significantly, with the CSI 300 index reporting a year-on-year net profit increase of 3.3% in Q1 2025, compared to a decline of -0.6% for the CSI 2000 index [20][27] - The report identifies that 17 out of 28 industries (excluding financials) experienced positive year-on-year net profit growth in Q1 2025, with the non-ferrous metals and agriculture sectors contributing the most to the overall profit growth [27][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Huatai Securities with a target price of 22.99 CNY [1][6] Core Views - Huatai Securities reported a total operating revenue of 7.3 billion CNY for Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.2% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.64 billion CNY, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.1 billion CNY and a year-on-year growth of 59% [1] - The report highlights improvements in Return on Equity (ROE), which stands at 1.9%, up by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year and 0.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [6] Financial Performance Summary - The total assets, excluding client funds, amounted to 602.2 billion CNY, a decrease of 619.2 billion CNY year-on-year, while net assets increased by 137.6 billion CNY to 195.3 billion CNY [6] - The financial leverage ratio is reported at 3.08 times, down by 0.57 times year-on-year [6] - The net profit margin for the reporting period is 49.9%, an increase of 9.7 percentage points year-on-year [6] Business Segment Performance - Proprietary business income totaled 3.72 billion CNY, with a net yield of 0.7% [6] - Brokerage business revenue was 1.94 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 42.6% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 22% [6] - Investment banking revenue was 540 million CNY, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.3 billion CNY [6] Future Earnings Forecast - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.91 CNY, 2.07 CNY, and 2.26 CNY respectively [7] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the same years are estimated at 8.4, 7.7, and 7.1 times [7] - The report anticipates a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.20 for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [6]